Twins Nailed Both Big Extensions

[Ted Schwerzler]

Before the 2019 Major League Baseball season, Derek Falvey handed out contract extensions to Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. 24 and 25-years-old respectively, both looked the part of key organizational pieces. Now a few years into those deals, where do they both stand?

Through 2018, Jorge Polanco had played 288 games for the Twins. He owned a career .272/.329/.420 slash line and was still trying to find himself as a hitter. Polanco has never played in more than 133 games during a season and topped 80 just once. He wasn’t a big strikeout problem, but his on-base prowess wasn’t exactly pronounced either.
 
Having come through the system as a shortstop, Polanco played three infield positions for Minnesota in 2016 before assuming shortstop full-time each of the next two years. His .773 OPS in 2018 seemed to indicate a breakout may be coming, and while there were concerns of his ability to stick at short, the bat was where hope resided.

We all remember how 2019 went as the Bomba Squad came on the scene, and Polanco was right in the center of that. His career-best .841 OPS was the offensive explosion Falvey banked on, and his 22 home runs were nearly double his previous career-high. Arguably one of the best offensive teams in Twins history, Polanco helped bolster a lineup with much bigger bats around him.
 
We’ve seen Polanco move off shortstop and deal with some ankle issues in the two years since. After a second surgery in 2020, his 2021 season re-established his place as one of baseball's best up-the-middle hitting infielders. The rebound to an .826 OPS with 33 big flies was truly a remarkable performance. Polanco has played more than 150 games in two of the past three seasons. He experienced his first All-Star game and picked up MVP votes.
 
Signed for $25.75 million over five years, with two vesting/team options in 2024 and 2025, there was very little way for the deal to go pear-shaped on Minnesota. Despite coming off another impressive season, Polanco will make just $5.5 million in 2022 and $7.5 million in 2023. Fangraphs estimates Polanco’s value has been worth $32.7 million in 2019 alone and $70.3 million through just the first three years of his extension. He’s nearly tripled the value paid to him, and there are still two years left on the deal.
 
Tied to Polanco in terms of timing was Kepler. Before doing his deal, Kepler had played in 419 games for Minnesota. He owned a .233/.313/.417 slash line and had recorded 56 homers. With just a 96 OPS+, Kepler was a solid defender that looked to have more in his bat.
 
Like Polanco, the return on investment immediately was realized in 2019 as Kepler posted a career-best .855 OPS backed by 36 dingers for the Bomba Squad. He was a middle-of-the-lineup bat that commanded the zone and generated solid contact. From there, though, the approach has fallen off. The past two seasons, Kepler has posted .760 and .719 OPS marks with a combined 28 homers in 169 games. A guy with good hard hit numbers, he finds himself too often driving the ball into the ground rather than elevating it.

Kepler walks a relatively fine line between a productive contract and unfortunate placement. His hard-hit rate in 2021 (35.6%) wasn’t where it was in 2019 (42.4%), but the flyball rate has also decreased in each of the past two seasons. Kepler is among the best defensive right-fielders in the game, and getting the most out of his bat would be the last segment of his game for the Twins to unlock.
 
Even without the complete package that Polanco has become, Falvey doing Kepler’s deal at $32.13 million over five years with a 2024 team option was never going to get the organization burned either. Fangraphs has Kepler’s 2019 alone being worth $35.6 million, and the total production over his first three years adds up to $58.4 million in value. He’ll likely double the contract value in 2022, and a great season or two could line him up for the payday Minnesota would no doubt love to consider.
 
At the time both deals were struck, neither seemed outlandish. Both players had come up through the system with plenty of projection, and the dollar value was Minnesota’s front office capitalizing on timing before production. These are two of the best contracts in baseball, and there’s only room for each to rise in the returned value.

Where do you think we see Polanco and Kepler go from here?

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[Doctor Gast]

Now that Polanco is where he should be, the sky is the limit. He'll be the best deal in baseball. I don't think Kepler's FB%/ GB% ratio has really changed the last 3 years. The only change from 2019 is juiced ball to dead ball. From the latest TD Kepler article, this off season he's been working on his swing. So I have high hopes that he'll be able to adjust and add to his value.

[roger]

Great article reminding us of these two young men we all can be proud to call Minnesota Twins.  

Polanco quietly has become a superstar.  Some believe his bat matured last year because of the move to second.  I wonder if it wasn't more because he was finally healthy.  Regardless of whether he is at second or shortstop this year, I expect we will continue seeing his bat among the best in the league.

If they can figure out a way for Kepler to either hit to the left side of the field or lay down a bunt a couple times a week, he might open up that infield and get his average back to .260 or higher.  Add 25-30 balls into the seats with his defense and he would also be one of the better players in the game.  

Would love to see both young men extended a year or two from now so that Polanco, Kepler and Buxton all play their entire careers for the Twins.

[mikelink45]

I am hoping Kepler's contract is low enough to entice another team to trade for him.  I think he peaked for us and now can be a good trade chip to maybe bring in another pitcher. 

[beckmt]

I think if we traded Kepler now we would be selling low.  If we are having another difficult year, and he has rebounded, maybe at the trade deadline.  

The only option I might see is Miami, where they have too many starters and not enough hitters.  But would not trade him unless the pitcher I was getting was a sure thing.  We have a large number of prospects here.

[MinnInPa]

Good solid ballplayers ... More so with Polanco. Kepler needs to cut down on the K's. If Kiriloff can make a major jump and Buxton stays healthy this makes a great middle lineup. All of this wont matter though if we dont get pitching..starters and bullpen. current roster of arms wont get  this team to the playoffs

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

Good solid ballplayers ... More so with Polanco. Kepler needs to cut down on the K's. If Kiriloff can make a major jump and Buxton stays healthy this makes a great middle lineup. All of this wont matter though if we dont get pitching..starters and bullpen. current roster of arms wont get  this team to the playoffs

Kepler has a career 18.4% K rate. League average is 22%. He was in the 62nd percentile for K rate last year. Ks aren't really his problem. Career 10.2% BB rate. League average is 8.4%. His problem is his BABIP. He doesn't get hits because he hits balls on the ground into the shift too often.

[MMMordabito]

4 hours ago, beckmt said:

I think if we traded Kepler now we would be selling low.  If we are having another difficult year, and he has rebounded, maybe at the trade deadline.  

The only option I might see is Miami, where they have too many starters and not enough hitters.  But would not trade him unless the pitcher I was getting was a sure thing.  We have a large number of prospects here.

Not only would it be selling low, it would create a massive defensive hole.  I also think they should wait until the deadline if the season goes south (if it happens).  Along with giving Kepler a chance to rebound, it gives someone like Martin a longer chance to get ready for the big leagues or someone like Larnach or Kirilloff to show they have improved defensively (and offensively, as far as Larnach is concerned).

I doubt Kepler fetches a rotation cog at this point.

[Finlander]

9 hours ago, beckmt said:

I think if we traded Kepler now we would be selling low.  If we are having another difficult year, and he has rebounded, maybe at the trade deadline.  

The only option I might see is Miami, where they have too many starters and not enough hitters.  But would not trade him unless the pitcher I was getting was a sure thing.  We have a large number of prospects here.

If Kepler has a decent first half this year he'd make a nice trade chip. By then, maybe someone like Larnach would be better prepared to take over a corner OF spot. It seemed our OF prospects were rushed  after letting Eddie R go last year and injuries occurred. Hopefully this year the corner OF production becomes more solid. Kepler has to rebound before he is of value in a trade, even with that friendly contract.

[Thebigalguy]

Hard to know about Kepler. His upside is still up. This year, 2022, should tell the tale. I thought he had figured out lefties, but last year he regressed. He plays hot and cold. But what else is new on the Bambi Squad?