CBA Musings (2/4): What’s Happening and What’s Next

[ashbury]

24 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I have no problem with what has gone on. 

You keep banging on the same drum, though, that salaries are the issue, and choosing questionable historical end points to make the argument.

[Major League Ready]

49 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You keep banging on the same drum, though, that salaries are the issue, and choosing questionable historical end points to make the argument.

Actually, my position had has little to do with actual salaries although I have been a proponent of substantial increases in minimum salary.  Owners always hold the ultimate control over salary levels so it would remain to be seen if any of these demands would actually raise salaries.  If owners are anywhere near as focused on net profit as many claim they would simply reduce spending to compensate.  My position has been very consistent the primary hold up to this point have been the demands that further erode parity.  (large increase in CBT threshold, lower revenue sharing, and shorter team control)  Team control has been partially dropped.  The MLBPA slipped in a full year of service time for top rookies into a different demand.

You would expect the sheer magnitude of the ask on the bonus of $100M is going to be a problem.  That demand for that group of players is already a 35% raise plus the $100M bonus pool for a handful of top players in that group of players.  Of course, those are the same players that will be the most apt to get 9 figure contracts.  How many players will be prearb (300 guess) so the raise for them which is 35% would be about $60M.  The bonus for a handful would be $100M.  Sure seems like Boras influence to me,

If there is drum banging, it's at the premise players income has not grown adequately.  The sustained increases are literally unprecedented in any industry.  No other employee group has sustained this level of increase for 50 years or 10 years for that matter.  

 

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Actually, my position had has little to do with actual salaries although I have been a proponent of substantial increases in minimum salary.  Owners always hold the ultimate control over salary levels so it would remain to be seen if any of these demands would actually raise salaries.  If owners are anywhere near as focused on net profit as many claim they would simply reduce spending to compensate.  My position has been very consistent the primary hold up to this point have been the demands that further erode parity.  (large increase in CBT threshold, lower revenue sharing, and shorter team control)  Team control has been partially dropped.  The MLBPA slipped in a full year of service time for top rookies into a different demand.

You would expect the sheer magnitude of the ask on the bonus of $100M is going to be a problem.  That demand for that group of players is already a 35% raise plus the $100M bonus pool for a handful of top players in that group of players.  Of course, those are the same players that will be the most apt to get 9 figure contracts.  How many players will be prearb (300 guess) so the raise for them which is 35% would be about $60M.  The bonus for a handful would be $100M.  Sure seems like Boras influence to me,

If there is drum banging, it's at the premise players income has not grown adequately.  The sustained increases are literally unprecedented in any industry.  No other employee group has sustained this level of increase for 50 years or 10 years for that matter.  Income for the rest of the US has increased by about 7X over that period.  Players 136X.  Still not enough I guess.

 

 

[se7799]

On 2/4/2022 at 8:51 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good points. Both sides are to blame in my opinion. I have spent over $400 for spring training game tickets in March 2022 at Ft. Myers, plus I have rented an AirBnB for a week. I am not a happy camper.

Yes, same here...plus all new merch every year. I've made some good friends with a few of the minor league coaches, so I may go to visit them and watch non roster players...But won't be the same. Maybe we get tickets refunded? Not to mention it's my favorite trip every year.  Going to hurt me, giving up hope .

[se7799]

Lot of money wasted on planning the spring training trip. This just sucks.

[Dantes929]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Both sides have been incredibly fortunate and you are correct that the value of the Minnesota Twins is 30X what it was in 1970.  We should also point out that Player salaries have increased by 136X of 1970 salaries.  In other words, salaries have increased almost 5x compared to team values.  Regardless of the exact numbers both sides are incredibly fortunate but only one side is wildly unsatisfied and demand more.  It's the same side that said we are unwilling to work for a penny less than 100% during a pandemic and refused to bunch an inch.  The owners want expanded playoffs which is good for the game and good for players.  The also want the universal DH which is good for the game and good for players.  They benefit both sides.  

The owners have not asked for "more" in the form of non-guaranteed contracts like football or max contract lengths like the NBA.  They have not asked to eliminate opt outs.  The demand for more and the subsequent threat to the MLB season is a product of players who don't feel the incredible compensation they get for playing a game is adequate and are demanding more.

Not to nitpick but My stats on value were for 1984.    My vague memory was that the Twins value around 1970 was about 3 million.    I can't find accurate data but since the Yankees were purchased for under 9 million in 1973 I think it is not far off base.   That would make the value factor about 440X since 1970 rather than 30X which maybe changes the picture a bit.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Dantes929 said:

Not to nitpick but My stats on value were for 1984.    My vague memory was that the Twins value around 1970 was about 3 million.    I can't find accurate data but since the Yankees were purchased for under 9 million in 1973 I think it is not far off base.   That would make the value factor about 440X since 1970 rather than 30X which maybe changes the picture a bit.

You are right but these debates tend to lose focus on the actual point of the discussion.  If you look back at the discussion, my point was that both sides are extremely fortunate.  However, only one side refuses to go on without getting more from the other.  A lot of people want to ignore which side won't go on without getting more.  The owners want 3 things.  A universal DH.  It's good for the game and will replace some low paying jobs with high paying jobs so it's good for the players.  It will cost the owners whatever the difference in salary is between the bench player they replace X 15.  Expanded playoffs created a lot more fan interest in 2020.  It's good for fans.  The additional revenue created is good for players and owners.  Obviously, the revenue goes to owners but given they spend 85-90 of the revenue it's good for the players too.  They certainly are not asking for something from the players.  An international draft.  I will let you decide if that system could use an overhaul and if that would be good for the game because that's a whole other discussion.

The league has not asked for anything this is not of benefit to the players and the game.  The same can't be said of the player's demands.  We are where we are because the players want more.  That's why we won't have a normal season or perhaps any season at all.  It's pretty tough to swallow they need more when looking at the contracts given out before the lockout.  If your company had several years of success could you demand a raise because they are making money?  Of course not.  Your compensation is based on market economics.  Would your salary / job be guaranteed no matter how you perform?   

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, se7799 said:

Yes, same here...plus all new merch every year. I've made some good friends with a few of the minor league coaches, so I may go to visit them and watch non roster players...But won't be the same. Maybe we get tickets refunded? Not to mention it's my favorite trip every year.  Going to hurt me, giving up hope .

You are not the Lone Ranger, my friend. My wife and I are still going and we will enjoy the sunshine and Ding Darling Wildlife Refuge, a day or two at the beach, the "orange store" with fresh orange juice, Mission BBQ  restaurant,  some good seafood  at a place on Sanibel Island, I really do enjoy wandering around the different ball fields watching the workouts. Plus  I'm getting together with an army buddy who lives there.  But I doubt my  already purchased tickets to see the Twins vs. the Yankees, Phillies   and Red Sox will be used for their  intended purpose. I think I will try to get some interviews and pictures for TD with some minor leaguers.  Of course my "interviews" will not compare with Seth's outstanding interviews. Hey, if any of you TD writers and readers want to meet and greet, I'll be there March 5 - 12th. When I'm at the ball parks, I'll look for suspicious looking characters who may be TD writers and readers and I'm not shy about asking if strangers post or  write for Twins Daily,  I'll be the old guy walking slowly wearing an olive green Second Infantry Division baseball style hat. Just yell out Tarheel and I'll know you read this post. I hope to meet some of you there. Now that I think about it, this week in Ft. Myers will be better than going to work in North Carolina. So thanks, I feel better now.  

[Blyleven2011]

On 2/5/2022 at 8:48 AM, miller761 said:

DISGUSTED with the game. Baseball has been a big part of my life from playing it as a youth to watching my grandchildren play. I have attended too many Twin's game to count. Monday I am calling the Twins to see if I can cancel my season ticket package. I urge everyone in this country to do the same Monday I am calling the Twins to see if I can cancel my season ticket package. I urge everyone in this country to do the samething with their team. I have no doubt I can find a better way to spend that money than to give it to 2 groups who can't decide how to divide up an amount of money I can not even fathom.

I wish you luck ,,,

Might have to call in a moderator 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, se7799 said:

Lot of money wasted on planning the spring training trip. This just sucks.

Looks like the minor leaguers will be there starting March 1.

The lockout started in December - when did you purchase your trip - last year?

[se7799]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Looks like the minor leaguers will be there starting March 1.

The lockout started in December - when did you purchase your trip - last year?

Purchased them the day they went on sale, out of blind hope I guess.  I wanted my favorite seats and it was going to by my wife's first trip there.  I've always gone myself then past few years medicals stopped her, and she is better now and realized life is to short and wanted to go watch me watch baseball. As she hears the excitement and stories of my trip..lol.  Ya  still going to go watch the minors..usually my favorite part anyway, just really wanted her to have the full experience.  I wish MLB new they had fans like you and me.  Grown up a Twins Fan because my tee ball team won the championship at age 5.  From Ohio and in South Carolina now.  But once a Twins Fan, always a Twins fan.

[se7799]

Sorry. Got off track and long winded above. 

[se7799]

5 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Sorry. Got off track and long winded above. 

Also to add.  Access to players and practices last year was so minimal.  Ropped off.  I understand the reason, just changes it.  No bats or balls or autographs.

[se7799]

12 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

You are not the Lone Ranger, my friend. My wife and I are still going and we will enjoy the sunshine and Ding Darling Wildlife Refuge, a day or two at the beach, the "orange store" with fresh orange juice, Mission BBQ  restaurant,  some good seafood  at a place on Sanibel Island, I really do enjoy wandering around the different ball fields watching the workouts. Plus  I'm getting together with an army buddy who lives there.  But I doubt my  already purchased tickets to see the Twins vs. the Yankees, Phillies   and Red Sox will be used for their  intended purpose. I think I will try to get some interviews and pictures for TD with some minor leaguers.  Of course my "interviews" will not compare with Seth's outstanding interviews. Hey, if any of you TD writers and readers want to meet and greet, I'll be there March 5 - 12th. When I'm at the ball parks, I'll look for suspicious looking characters who may be TD writers and readers and I'm not shy about asking if strangers post or  write for Twins Daily,  I'll be the old guy walking slowly wearing an olive green Second Infantry Division baseball style hat. Just yell out Tarheel and I'll know you read this post. I hope to meet some of you there. Now that I think about it, this week in Ft. Myers will be better than going to work in North Carolina. So thanks, I feel better now.  

I will definitely look for you there.  

[DJL44]

On 2/5/2022 at 11:34 AM, Battle ur tail off said:

If this lockout extends for a long period, my guess is that you will see baseball become hockey. 

I'm more worried that baseball becomes horse racing. A sport for compulsive gamblers and the obnoxiously wealthy.

[Trov]

On 2/5/2022 at 10:19 AM, DJL44 said:

I disagree. Once teams are in the playoffs they have at least a 40% chance to advance in each round. It's a series of coin flips to get to the World Series.

Also, each team is receiving more revenue sharing dollars than the luxury tax spending limits. No team is cash limited for payroll. If the Twins want to spend like the Yankees they're already able to. Of course spending that money on payroll would limit their ability to use cash flow to finance debt to develop real estate around baseball stadiums which is the true business of major league baseball in the current era.

Where are you getting the numbers?  To my knowledge, unless you work for the team, other than Atlanta, none of those numbers are available to even the players, part of the issue they have.  The Owners say they cannot afford it, but you say the Twins could double their payroll and still make money?  I would like to know how you have seen the books on that.  I am not saying you are wrong, I just doubt it.  Also, the Rays, would have to have about 4 times their payroll to reach the Yankees or Dodgers. 

[Trov]

On 2/5/2022 at 2:26 PM, ashbury said:

You're not addressing the big picture here.  It's billionaires (owners) versus multi-millionaires (players) versus millionaires (ticket buyers) versus Ordinary Joes.  The Joes are being outbid for tickets, and that's why prices are high. It's no coincidence that people often remember best the games they saw when their employer gifted them some good seats for a game against a lesser opponent that the employer didn't happen to want to attend.

If the teams did unilaterally cut ticket prices by half, scalpers would snap them up and sell them to the highest bidder, and the price to see a game would remain about the same, only the money goes into some other pockets than the team owners and the players.  And these scalpers aren't your old-school sleazebags on the street corner - they are corporations like StubHub now - so we're back to talking about billionaires again.

I'm not proposing revolution, but we should try to see things as they are.

You make a fair point about the ticket prices, but the prices only go up if the fans are willing to pay it.  The scalpers take a risk that fans will not pay the increased cost.  I saw a story the other years that scalpers took huge hit when fans were not paying the increased costs to certain events.  If the fans stay united, and not pay above face value for tickets, then the cost will not go up, but fans cannot stay united. 

Now, there is also the cost of advertising, which eventually pushes back on consumers too.  As more people watch games on TV, it leads to higher ratings, which leads TV channels to charge more for commercial time.  They then pay more for the rights to air the games, and pass that onto advertising and to channel providers, which then gets passed onto us.  As your provider of the TV channel the game is shown on, cable, satellite, or cord cutting paths, all that gets passed onto the consumer.  Now, if people stopped watching on TV then the networks would have less advertising money, and would pay less to get the rights to the games. 

I know the fans will never band together in a full boycott to really show the MLB and players who really has the power.  We are not organized enough to stand strong.  I just wish we did. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Where are you getting the numbers?  

MLB’s revenue sharing problem, and how to solve it - Bless You Boys

Quote

As a result, in 2018, each team received $118 million from this fund, according to baseball_reference with larger market teams putting in more and smaller market teams less. About half of teams are net recipients and the other half net payees. Teams also receive a share of national revenues, which were estimated to be $91 million per club in 2018, and they still have kept 52 percent of their own local revenues. And their payroll is how much?

In 2018 teams received $209M before accounting for local revenue. TV revenues have increased since then due to multi-billion dollar deals with ESPN and TBS.

[DJL44]

On 2/6/2022 at 6:06 AM, Major League Ready said:

given they spend 85-90 of the revenue it's good for the players too.

That's the whole problem. They aren't spending 90% of the new revenue on players. The MLB terms are "We know the pie grew 20% but we're going to only give you a 10% increase. Shut up and be happy that we gave you any of the increase at all."

[se7799]

On 2/6/2022 at 10:07 AM, DJL44 said:

Looks like the minor leaguers will be there starting March 1.

The lockout started in December - when did you purchase your trip - last year?

I bought my tickets Nov 19th.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's the whole problem. They aren't spending 90% of the new revenue on players. The MLB terms are "We know the pie grew 20% but we're going to only give you a 10% increase. Shut up and be happy that we gave you any of the increase at all."

It's not nearly as simple as revenue grew and player salary has not from a given point.  Part of it is that teams had been ineffective in how they invested in free agents.  They adjusted.  That's how it works in business.  Second, teams added a significant number of non-player personnel.  Why?  Because they felt that investment would have a greater return than spending on free agents.  Businesses reallocate financial resource all the time.  This time that did not favor players but would you prefer your team allocate those funds to players or spend those dollars on analysts, equipment and specialty coaches that will enhance player development and provide greater performance across all of your players?

Then, there is the whole concept that an employee is entitled to more money because revenue grew.  Obviously, there are employees who get bonuses based on revenue.  However, compensation for employees is not driven by revenue.  It just does not work that way in any industry.  If your company's revenue went up, would you be successful in demanding a raise based on the company revenue?   The other side of this premise was demonstrated quite clearly during 2020 when the players refused to work for a penny less than 100% of their normal rate.  They very clearly demonstrated they were not interested in compensation being driven by revenue when revenue was down.  They are employees not partners.   

[Linus]

I don’t care about the owners or the players. I care about the fact that baseball is swirling in the toilet as a game. Nothing these clowns are arguing about addresses these problems. 
Baseball’s anti trust exemption needs to be revoked immediately. Let other leagues start up - then we will find out what the players and these franchises are really worth. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Then, there is the whole concept that an employee is entitled to more money because revenue grew.  Obviously, there are employees who get bonuses based on revenue.  However, compensation for employees is not driven by revenue.  It just does not work that way in any industry. 

In this case the employees ARE the product so they have a pretty good argument.