Dreaming On Trevor Story to the Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

In December, I wrote about Kris Bryant and what his bat may bring to the Minnesota Twins lineup. Not long after, Matthew Taylor wondered about the club going all-in on offense. Nick Nelson recently wrote about the Twins simple solution at shortstop, but it comes with pitfalls. Why not imagine Trevor Story in Minnesota?

The first fact we’re dealing with is that Rocco Baldelli needs a shortstop. As The Athletic’s Dan Hayes pointed out, Jorge Polanco would not appear to be a desirable choice. Even if it weren’t for the ankle injury concerns, there’s the reality that he’s just simply not good defensively at the position. Taking him from a place of strength at second base and causing a step backward in the field at two spots (when inserting Luis Arraez) would be suboptimal.

The second fact is that waiting on prospects is a very tricky proposition. I believe Royce Lewis will return in 2022 and make the time missed look like a minor speed bump. That said, I’m still not convinced he’s a shortstop at the Major League level, and I think it’s fair to assess that Minnesota believes Austin Martin isn’t ticketed for that role either. In that scenario, both of the Twins top prospects up the middle would be looking at the outfield or elsewhere when it comes to playing time. Prospects can force a club’s hand and work their way in, but holding a position for them isn’t always the best path towards success.

The third fact is that while Derek Falvey has money to spend, it will not be enough for Carlos Correa. Even before joining forces with Scott Boras this offseason, the former Astros shortstop was said to be looking for a $300 million deal. The New York Yankees need a shortstop, and Correa’s price tag immediately makes them a logical fit. As the premier option on the open market, it makes sense that he’d go where the highest payday can be achieved.
 
So, what about Story then?

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle ranked the fits for Trevor Story back at the end of December and called the Twins a “two-star fit.” His two caveats to spending on the spot are Lewis’ return and the need to spend on starting pitching. We discussed Lewis above, and shy of spending for Carlos Rodon, Minnesota isn’t going to be able to spend on pitching through free agency. As Matthew Braun recently pointed out, Minnesota has largely failed Josh Donaldson. After inking him to a franchise-record deal, there’s been little done to supplement that talent throughout his contract. With two years left, signing Story to a five-year pact would be the right foot forward in terms of that narrative.
 
After becoming a two-time All-Star in 2019, Story has seen declining offensive numbers each of the past two seasons. He was barely above league average in 2021, posting a 103 OPS+, and he failed to eclipse the 30 homer plateau. Every time you play your home games at Coors Field, you’ll warrant talk about splits, and it’s fair to note Story’s .752 OPS on the road is well below the .972 OPS at home. However, as a righty, the left-field line at Target Field could play to his pull tendencies. The slight decline could also lend itself to a more manageable number on the dotted line.
 
I don’t think Story is a must for Minnesota, but there’s no denying the shortstop position is integral amongst the infield. I’d bank on the Twins trading for their frontline starter, which will eat up some capital, but spending still will fall short. Rather than taking the risk on an expensive arm, being more calculated while throwing dollars at a 29-year-old offensive star seems to fit well. I don’t want to see Polanco relocated across the diamond, and I’m out on Andrelton Simmons or Jose Iglesias even at the lowest dollar amount. Do something to move the needle. Adding Story would accomplish that.

Where are you at on Trevor Story? If Minnesota can't spend on pitching, how interested are you in the dollars going to a shortstop? Comment below.

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[chpettit19]

I love this move. Nobody would argue that pitching isn't the biggest need, but I don't get why they wouldn't sure up the offense/defense with Story for the next 5 years and be in a spot to not really have to worry about much, if anything, offensively for the next 3 or 4 years. At that point you can put all efforts into the pitching knowing you're set on the offensive/defensive side. Buxton, Story, Polanco up the middle for the next handful of years would be a great place to start from with the young guys on the mound and corners coming up.

[Dman]

There is so little out there at short that Story makes some sense. I don't love him but after Correa he is the best of what's left and it is getting tiring of having nothing at Short.  That being said there are still other teams in need of a SS and something tells me we would be outbid in the end anyway.  

I hope Royce is going to be the answer but there are so, so many question marks there I don't know if a one year stopgap and dreaming on Royce does it for me anymore.  This whole season is a question mark though so the FO might just punt until they know what they have for pitching after this year.  Here's hoping they find a good solution somehow, someway.

[mikelink45]

I know that topics are limited, but I cannot go here.  Never been a fantasy fan.

[Doctor Gast]

For me Story has always been my #1 choice. If not going the Rodon/ Simmons route then IMO a Story route is the only sensible route left.

[GNess]

Story is an excellent, proven SS with a quality bat. Given that the Twins seem focused on a trade for a SP or two which will likely be less expensive than a FA  how does adding Story not help the Twins for the next 3-4 years? If Lewis is good enough to push him out that's a good problem to have.. Lewis and/or Martin would make great super subs with their positional flexibility.

 

[tony&rodney]

Some solid reasons to sign Story in the comments and I agree. My concern is with where Pohlad sets the budget. If it is $115-120 million, there is room for Story. If the roster needs to come in below $115 million, it is too tight. 

[blindeke]

It depends on how much he costs, I guess.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m all in on Pitching. Plan A, B, C… but were the Twins to sign Story, I would be quite happy.

[Ryan_K]

I think his defense numbers have fallen off a bit where he is above average, but concerns about his arm.

If we can get him on a 1 year prove it contract say 27 million, then go for it, but I won't commit multiple years to him with his splits more so the RH LH than the home road ones.

[Seansy]

Story is definitely an option but given his offensive and defensive decline I worry that if he doesn't bounce back we'll be stuck with an albatross contract for 5-6 years. I would rather the Twins spend their money on pitching to target Rodon, Kikuchi, Pineda, trades than hope Story bounces back on a long term deal. We have about ~42M to spend. If we drop 25M per year on Story that leave ~17M to fill out the rotation and possibly add a BP arm or two. 

[HrbieFan]

Strong pass! Look at his home/road splits. He is nothing away from the mile high city. 241 avg, 310 OBP, 442 SLG vs 303 avg, 369 OBP, 603 SLG 

[Karbo]

While I think it would be great adding Story, I just don't see it happening. It makes alot of sense (maybe too much) to shore up the Defense behind thr young guns as they develop. However, this FO to date just seems they are against BIG contracts that are long term and slightly risky. Other than the Donaldson deal They really don't have any record of long term FA big money contracts. As I remember, Cruz only got 1 or 2 years. Buxton is not a FA. Am I missing anyone?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

Strong pass! Look at his home/road splits. He is nothing away from the mile high city. 241 avg, 310 OBP, 442 SLG vs 303 avg, 369 OBP, 603 SLG 

If Story were to only hit his Road half of the split for 2022 in a Twins Uni, he’s still be in the top 18-20 SS in MLB. Most players hit better at home than road (though clearly not to this extreme) and he’s still a very good fielder.

Story would not be the number 5 SS with those numbers but a massive upgrade over alternatives like Iglesias, Galvis or Simmons

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Strong pass! Look at his home/road splits. He is nothing away from the mile high city. 241 avg, 310 OBP, 442 SLG vs 303 avg, 369 OBP, 603 SLG 

It's been shown that the road/home splits for Colorado players don't mean a whole lot. It is easier to hit at mile high, but also then harder to hit on the road when pitches do different things. So it creates an even wider gap and you can't just say "his road stats are his real stats" or even "his road stats are closer to his real stats." Arenado had some pretty gnarly home/road splits too and I think St Louis is quite happy with his 121 OPS+ for them last year. For the most part good hitters are good hitters wherever you put them.

And he's still drastically better as a whole package than anything the Twins have run out at short in a long, long time. He's night and day better than Simmons with the bat and way better defensively than Polanco at short. 

[Blyleven2011]

Thank for this well written  post ...

I really don't know how to respond to it though.. 

Without  favey  / levine and pohlads giving the fans a plan or a budget for 2022 its  most likely that the team will be competitive with our prospects to fill the positions  ...  that's all I have heard from them that we the twins will be competitive in 2022 but haven't shown the fans any strategy  , plan , solution  or hope for a the season  ,,

81 -81 is competitive  ,  isn't  going to happen if your a realist ,,,, our front office doesn't move the needle ....

  for this to happen ....

We probably need a new owner that wants to spend for championships and hopefully loves the game ,  ridiculous to love money if you can't take it with you ,,

Have fun and enjoy it 

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Without  favey  / levine and pohlads giving the fans a plan or a budget for 2022 its  most likely that the team will be competitive with our prospects to fill the positions  ...  that's all I have heard from them that we the twins will be competitive in 2022 but haven't shown the fans any strategy  , plan , solution  or hope for a the season  ,,

This to some extent is my malaise regarding the 2022 Twins. I'm ok that the Twins are secretive with their process and also don't begrudge the Pohlad family making money from their inheritance. I simply don't have any confidence that the Twins plan to win as a goal. The Zips AL standings projections are up at Fangraphs and they indicate what is common knowledge - the Twins will be one of the worst teams in the AL with their current roster. This is almost completely due to the fact that they do not have a pitching staff and also have a hole at shortstop. The roster, right now, is not acceptable by any means. Adding a shortstop as suggested by Ted or trading for some hopeful shortstop are easily accomplished. The Twins can compete in 2022 if they add a couple of pitchers and the reticence to do so may or may not change after the lockout ends. Then again, maybe baseball is cancelled this year. The hot stove has been drenched by MLB and the PA thus far. 

[Blyleven2011]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This to some extent is my malaise regarding the 2022 Twins. I'm ok that the Twins are secretive with their process and also don't begrudge the Pohlad family making money from their inheritance. I simply don't have any confidence that the Twins plan to win as a goal.

If there secretive in their plans , approach  and budget to the coming season how does a normal fan have suggestions  on roster .

 

It's all speculation at that point ...

Pohlad in my opinion is lessening the payroll this year because he lost money the past 2 season  ( that is speculation  ) because nobody has said a dang thing on strategy,  plan and budget  ..

 

I don't like not being in the loop  and I was a business owner and I lived by ...

you can't  make money all the time , BUT YOU BETTER MAKE MONEY MOST IF THE TIME   ..

So you lose money 2 years in arow , write it off  and pray you don't lose money 3 years in arow ,,, Keep the payroll no less than last year going forward 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like this option but surely not at the numbers mentioned in this post.  I would say we offer 12MM annually for 3 years.  We can add incentives like we did for Buck or a team/player option for the 4th year like we did for Columne last year so we have protection against a drop off after year 3.

Anything longer or higher than that prevents internal development and takes away from what we can spend on pitching.

[Nashvilletwin]

Well, if you had your druthers for the next two years, which infield would you rather have: 

A. Kiriloff, Polanco, Story, Miranda and Arraez and Gordon in utility roles; or,

B. Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson and Miranda and Gordon in the utility roles.

It should cost about the same as Story is projected at $25mm/year or so - similar to Donaldson. 

Personally, if the cold hard truth is that neither Lewis nor Martin is not going to be our SS of the future, I’d choose A.  Why? Emphasize strength up the middle, keep Polanco in his natural position, give Miranda the ABs and innings he needs, replace one declining asset with one declining less, and have a core infield that could stay in place for an additional two or so years. 
 

 

 

 

 

[Trov]

I have been very much against Story for his reported asking price or expected signing number.  I would not want him for very long term at a huge number.  Now, if he is willing to accept say a 3 to 4 year deal at a reasonable per year number I would be more open.  He is aging, declining in numbers on both offense and defense, has terrible home road splits. 

I am fine with checking on him for short term, but doing a 6 to 8 year deal is way out of question.  I think they Twins would greatly regret that long of a deal and be tied to an aging sub par offense guy that gets moved off of SS, and by end of deal fans will be so happy he is gone.

Clubs like the Twins cannot take big swings and misses on long term deals.  Even high market teams like Angels who have had many swings and misses start to pile up and never pay off in long run.  Story comes with a huge buyer beware tag in my opinion. 

[Minny505]

Story, playing with a bum right elbow for almost all of 2021, was still a 3.5 WAR SS. He played at a 5+ WAR pace per 600 PA from 2018-2020. That is elite. 

A healed up elbow puts Story as the best, most reliable player on the Twins roster for 2022. He is rarely injured and played elite defense his entire career prior to the elbow injury. 

He is projected as a 4 WAR, 30hr, 10sb, gg contending SS, in 2022. His upside is better than anyone on the Twins not named Byron Buxton. At 29, he has the bat to move down the defensive spectrum as his defense declines, but he has been so good on defense he likely has 3-4 years before that move will have to be made.

[Brandon]

With Bundy a low cost pick up and if the Twins go out and get another low cost pickup like Odorizzi or Pineda or both (sorry can't think of other pitchers off the top of my head) and say we are all good on pitchers then we easily have money for an Story book finish to the offseason.

[Battle ur tail off]

I wouldn't pay the guy a ton of money. We have possible the worst pitching staff in the history of Major League baseball right now and have traded away the best pitcher we have for a SS, spent a #1 overall pick on one, and another top 5 pick on one. 

If money is going to be spent, I prefer it spent on pitching be it starting pitchers or bullpen. 

Use your guys. This is an epic disaster if we don't get at least one up the middle player out of the best pitcher in our organization and 2 top 5 first round picks.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I wouldn't pay the guy a ton of money. We have possible the worst pitching staff in the history of Major League baseball right now and have traded away the best pitcher we have for a SS, spent a #1 overall pick on one, and another top 5 pick on one. 

If money is going to be spent, I prefer it spent on pitching be it starting pitchers or bullpen. 

Use your guys. This is an epic disaster if we don't get at least one up the middle player out of the best pitcher in our organization and 2 top 5 first round picks.

Feels like maybe that's just being stubborn to be stubborn. It's certainly not ideal if Martin, Lewis, and Gordon don't produce a major league SS, but just refusing to improve the position because you missed on those guys seems unproductive at best.

At this point it's a done deal on Gordon. He's not an everyday major league SS. There's no sense in complaining about it or holding onto hope anymore.

Martin has very, very little chance of sticking there.

Lewis is a tossup at this point and it will depend on what improvements he made during his rehab and the covid year. The Twins should have a very good idea of if he can stick there or what he's looking like after having him in their facilities and working directly with their staff 7 days a week for nearly 2 years. If they don't think he's going to stick there either what is the point of being stubborn and not signing Story just because you really wanted one of those 3 to turn out?

I don't get the argument of "we have a really big problem in 2 spots, but this problem is much bigger so let's not invest anything to fix the second really big problem." The Twins don't have a starting SS for opening day 2022. Why not sign a top 10 SS to fix that hole when they have 40 mil left to get to the place the payroll has been at the last few years and there's no SP worthy of that kind of money? 

They're not fixing the rotation as drastically as people want. At least not in the way people want. They're not spending a ton of money there. It's just not happening. So at this point why not invest in Story and have him, Buxton, and Polanco all locked up in the middle of your defense and lineup for a number of years? Donaldson and Sano both coming off the books soon so it's not like it'll crush their payroll. Just because the pitching is bad doesn't mean they shouldn't fortify the rest of the roster. Why go into 2023 with question marks on the pitching side still and the very real chance of still needing a major league short stop? If Lewis turns out to be a real SS then you can trade him or Story for the pitching you'll still need.

I just don't get the idea of not bringing in good players just because they need good players at other positions as well.

[farmerguychris]

Sign him - If Royce comes up and is ready and capable at SS, we have a good problem.  Someone can be traded for pitching.  Find a way to sign some talent - he would make our team better than it is today.

[jmlease1]

I'm a Trevor Story guy, and i definitely rate him. Kinda feels like it fixes a number of things: locks down SS for several years with skilled defense and a good bat (even if he never gets back to hitting like an all-star, he's going to be good enough to make half the teams in the league envious). Finds a good use for the team's budget dollars after going nowhere on signing starting pitching. (and there's still likely enough money to resign Pineda with no real problem)

yes, the team would be relying on a lot of untested starters and betting on rebounds from some guys. but I would much rather spend a big pile on a quality SS who can still play at an all-star level than spread around most of that money on a retread starter and two middle of the pack and overpaid relievers. 

Think about this lineup:

1. Polanco
2. Donaldson
3. Buxton
4. Kirilloff
5. Sano
6. Kepler
7. Garver
8. Arraez
9. Story

That's a nightmare to navigate. You'd have plus defenders at 4 positions (SS, 2B, CF, and RF) and Donaldson and Garver aren't any kind of drag (at least not yet). The only guy in that lineup without power is Arraez (who could also be freed up to be dealt for pitching), and you'd have bench options with Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, and Jeffers. I think Story is a hell of a fit, regardless of where Royce Lewis or Austin Martin are in their development.

 

[MABB1959]

I didn't read the comments yet.  What's the deal with Royce Lewis?  Was it a total fail as a first round first pick?  He was drafted in 2017.  If he was that great why isn't he here or coming in 2022.  I would bring him up give him 2022 and stop the if's/guessing.  I would not spend that much on a 2022 SS.  Let Lewis come up and thrive or fail.  We are letting Kepler stay could Lewis be worse?

[tony&rodney]

This still seems really simple. Just ask yourself a few questions. Do the Twins need a shortstop? Do the Twins have a budget around $120 million or more for their 2022 roster? Do you want the Twins to be good enough to win more games with an addition than what is currently on roster? Trevor Story absolutely makes the Twins better and I cannot believe he expects a 6-8 year contract. Whatever. If the Twins are looking to keep the budget around $100 million, which most people haven't discussed, then this entire conversation is moot. No mon, no fun. 

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I didn't read the comments yet.  What's the deal with Royce Lewis?  Was it a total fail as a first round first pick?  He was drafted in 2017.  If he was that great why isn't he here or coming in 2022.  I would bring him up give him 2022 and stop the if's/guessing.  I would not spend that much on a 2022 SS.  Let Lewis come up and thrive or fail.  We are letting Kepler stay could Lewis be worse?

You do realize he has not played in 2 years, right?