Keith Laws top 100 where are the Twins?

[mikelink45]

I enjoy Keith Laws prospect reports.  I know some of you do not like him or Jim Bowden or Buster Olney - I like them all and I enjoy their takes.  I do not read them to agree, I read them to be challenged and get different viewpoints.  So with that in mind I wondered how the Twins prospects would rank.     I have some selected comments - you have to go to the pafe for full evaluatisons.

Austin Martin is the top Twin at 25:

"In the field, he’s athletic enough to play almost anywhere, certainly to be a plus defender at third base, but he’s had throwing issues since the start of his junior year and at this point is probably going to end up in centerfield or at second base. He’s a plus runner with bat speed and quick-twitch to him that should make the Twins’ player development people giddy, and now he gets a full offseason to work on getting back to driving the ball. He’s lost some of his luster, but not his ability. There’s still a .300 AVG/.400 OBP guy in here, with the ability to play somewhere up the middle and add value on defense, too."

Jordan Balazovic is the top Twins pitcher at #43

"...He’s a good athlete who repeats his delivery well, getting some deception from the way he hides the ball, and has shown the ability to work to both sides of the plate already. He’s 6-5 and built like a workhorse starter, with the pitches to be a mid-rotation guy or better."

Jose Miranda was #96 I was expecting him to be higher.

"The Twins have tried him at several positions, including second, first, and left, but so far he’s looked best at third base, where he’s still only fringe-average and may not get better given how much he’s filled out...The Twins have tried him at several positions, including second, first, and left, but so far he’s looked best at third base, where he’s still only fringe-average and may not get better given how much he’s filled out."

As we have speculated on TD - Royce Lewis has to show something before he can be in the top 100 again.  I was hoping for a second pitcher, but the three that are there are interesting.  How do they match with TD rankings?  

One thing that was interesting to me was the discussion about him at 3B.  Maybe we do not want to hurry Donaldson to DH - maybe Miranda should be there or LF.  Donaldson still gives us good fielding.

I am not sure how our call ups changed eligibility for rookie status with Kiriloff, Ryan, Ober, and Larnach, but I did not expect to see them on the list.  So what next?  Who comes up next, who do we rate as the best in the system?

[nicksaviking]

I never have a problem with Law. In fact I do appreciate the guys who aren't tied to everyone else's rankings. 

The one thing about Law that I don't think he ever has improved upon though is his defensive takes. I don't even know what "fringy average" means. But in any case, Law, and plenty of other pundits, make a hard cut at "average" and if a guy is below "average" their evaluations dictate that the player will need to switch positions. Half the league is below average defensively, and if your bat works, it's usually not a big deal in the long run, but for some reason it is when you're a prospect evaluator.

But this is more of an industry issue, not a Law issue specifically.

[mike8791]

Reading Law is a sobering, but illuminating exercise in my view.  He gives more of an in-depth, if at times skewed analysis that leaves one a bit bewildered.  In his latest ranking, he certainly doesn't give Twins' fans much to look forward to in our current crop of prospects.  Leaves one with feeling this is a middlin' farm system with one top prospect in Martin, a single mid-tier pitching prospect and a #96 pick who Law obviously is a bit sceptical on, especially when it comes to his best position.

While Law is not the end-all in prognosticators, his rankings give pause to some of us who think Martin and/or Balazovic might be more useful as trade pieces to bring back back major league pitching.   Perhaps our other deep pitching prospects represent more quantity than quality.  Or their omission on Law's list reflects the numerous injuries and shortened season in the last two years.  In any case this is surely a make or break season for the Twins top 20 - and the FO who is obviously counting on major progression in the pitching department rather than outside acquisitions to turn around Twin fortunes.  Many here have lost faith, but we all hope they are proven right.

[roger]

Don't have a problem with Law having Balazovic as our top pitcher and where he has him.  I believe, however, that Winder is going to be the better starting pitcher.  May not have the ceiling Balazovic has, but expect Winder to develop into something akin to what Radke was.  

[Dman]

Yeah Law is pretty good at what he does and it is nice that he generally gives a different viewpoint.  I can't argue with his Twins picks although I thought after the year Balazovich had he might have had him even lower.  I kind of thought he might throw SWR in at the end as there are not many or any 20\21 year old pitching at AA but I guess he fell off too hard at the end to justify it.

Winder is on the older side I think 25 so starting to move out of top 100 prospect status IMO.  He even says upside is a big part of his criteria at the start of this article.  The only other pitcher in the Twins system to pitch significant innings are Sands and Strotman who are older and not looked at as top of the rotations starter and Balazovich who he included in his top 100.

Canterino, Duran, Enlow were all out with injuries.  Lot's of scouts think Petty isn't strong enough to start and ends up in the pen so not a likely top 100 guy until he can prove otherwise.  So not sure who else he could have put in there on the pitching side.

Miranda is the last big bat in the system and he has him in his top 100.  The Twins have a lot of players that could make the majors but not many that look like they have top of the league skills.  I would say his assessment was more than fair this time around.

 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Don't have a problem with Law having Balazovic as our top pitcher and where he has him.  I believe, however, that Winder is going to be the better starting pitcher.  May not have the ceiling Balazovic has, but expect Winder to develop into something akin to what Radke was.  

Law made reference to Balazovic's size and potential to be a workhorse.  Developing a pitcher who is mid rotation or better who can get innings is pretty valuable.  I don't kniw if Winder has the durability.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I never have a problem with Law. In fact I do appreciate the guys who aren't tied to everyone else's rankings. 

The one thing about Law that I don't think he ever has improved upon though is his defensive takes. I don't even know what "fringy average" means. But in any case, Law, and plenty of other pundits, make a hard cut at "average" and if a guy is below "average" their evaluations dictate that the player will need to switch positions. Half the league is below average defensively, and if your bat works, it's usually not a big deal in the long run, but for some reason it is when you're a prospect evaluator.

But this is more of an industry issue, not a Law issue specifically.

Fringy average is pretty easy to understand--you're in the average range, but at the low end of it.  That is, Miranda is in the average zone for 3B defense, but if he loses a step, he will go into the below average range, as opposed to a player at the top of the average zone, who could lose a step but still remain in the average zone.  Put another way, if any grade of "C" is average, Miranda is a C-; any worse, and he falls into the D range, which is no longer average.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Reading Law is a sobering, but illuminating exercise in my view.  He gives more of an in-depth, if at times skewed analysis that leaves one a bit bewildered.  In his latest ranking, he certainly doesn't give Twins' fans much to look forward to in our current crop of prospects.  Leaves one with feeling this is a middlin' farm system with one top prospect in Martin, a single mid-tier pitching prospect and a #96 pick who Law obviously is a bit sceptical on, especially when it comes to his best position.

While Law is not the end-all in prognosticators, his rankings give pause to some of us who think Martin and/or Balazovic might be more useful as trade pieces to bring back back major league pitching.   Perhaps our other deep pitching prospects represent more quantity than quality.  Or their omission on Law's list reflects the numerous injuries and shortened season in the last two years.  In any case this is surely a make or break season for the Twins top 20 - and the FO who is obviously counting on major progression in the pitching department rather than outside acquisitions to turn around Twin fortunes.  Many here have lost faith, but we all hope they are proven right.

At least when it comes to pitching prospects, I would rather have 6-8 Top 200 caliber guys than 2-3 Top 100 caliber guys.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Don't have a problem with Law having Balazovic as our top pitcher and where he has him.  I believe, however, that Winder is going to be the better starting pitcher.  May not have the ceiling Balazovic has, but expect Winder to develop into something akin to what Radke was.  

Whew! If Winder turned out to be Brad Radke (or Balazovic) the Twins would be absolutely giddy. Radke wasn't too far off a potential Hall of Fame candidate until the injuries had him call the career early. Retired after age 33 playing through serious shoulder issues in 2006, Radke accumulated 39 fWAR and 46 bWAR in his shortened career. Another 5 years, and he'd likely have posted up 60 bWAR, probably making him a borderline candidate.

[tony&rodney]

When Twins fans look over the prospect lists it should be a reminder that however much we like the guys we have in our system, which I do too, it is a necessity to sign one pitcher (Rodon, Greinke, ?) and trade for another (Montas, Bassitt, ?) to allow Ober, Ryan, and those up next (Winder, Duran, Balazovic) to develop in MLB. This might not have been if the Twins had Berrios and Maeda to lead the staff, but that doesn't matter/it's in the past. If the budget is small, go for Montas and Greinke. If the budget is larger, go for Bassitt and Rodon. Oh, and because I have been fixated on Miami for too long, let's trade Arraez, Jeffers, Vallimont plus for Cabrera and Meyer.

[Unwinder]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

At least when it comes to pitching prospects, I would rather have 6-8 Top 200 caliber guys than 2-3 Top 100 caliber guys.

I agree, I haven't done the math or anything, but if, say, a top-100 prospect has a 50% chance of making it in the big leagues, and a top 200 guy has a 25% chance, you're still making out better.

Pitching prospects are sort of a crapshoot anyway, who saw Bailey Ober coming?

[TwinsDr2021]

From what I remember about Law (haven't read him for a while) he likes is prospects on the younger side which I agree with, most of the Twins prospects are getting older. IMO it is hard to call a 25 year old man a high end prospects compared to an 18 year old. (doesn't mean the 25 year old won't have a better career, but getting your feet wet in the majors at 25 is quite a bit different than getting them wet at 21/22)

A ways back I went though the top 50 guys in ERA in 2021 and just about all of them were guys that made their major league debut at age 23/24 or younger. (with a Covid that may change in the future)

Which means guys like SWR, Balazovic and Petty will probably be rated higher over the other Twins prospects, because they rest are all 24 or older.

I think if Steve Hajjar has a big year, he could be in the top 100 next year?

[Ryan_K]

While Balazovic is ranked in the 40s and it might not seem great, I counted and he is in the top 9 of all pitching prospects. He was listed as the top of the mid rotation or more guys with the potential to be more with refined command.

Well, Gleeman noted that his control lagged because he was working on the new splitter vs change up, so I think we might have a number 2 guy i.e. Berries, Sonny Gray. Ideally in the 15 to 30 range for SP War.

 

Last high point, since he is from Canada the cold April and late September starts should be more comfortable to him vs others.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Ryan_K said:

Last high point, since he is from Canada the cold April and late September starts should be more comfortable to him vs others.

There is reality to this observation. 

[dxpavelka]

STOP PRETENDING INFIELDERS CAN PLAY OUTFIELD.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I hope so many of the current Twins prospects, who were left off this list, do so well that Keith Law realizes he doesn't know what he is doing as a predictor of the success of baseball prospects, causing him to quit his day job and  go to Law School and become an attorney.  What a great name for a lawyer..

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

STOP PRETENDING INFIELDERS CAN PLAY OUTFIELD.

 

You mean like Michael Cuddyer or Alex Gordon or Chris Bryant or Michael Taylor or Cody Bellinger or Ben Zobrist or the many many others who successfully played INF and OF.

[dxpavelka]

You named ONE Twin.

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

You named ONE Twin.

You will have to explain to us how playing for the Twins is a barrier to doing something done by many other players for many other teams?  

[dex8425]

On 1/31/2022 at 10:59 AM, roger said:

Don't have a problem with Law having Balazovic as our top pitcher and where he has him.  I believe, however, that Winder is going to be the better starting pitcher.  May not have the ceiling Balazovic has, but expect Winder to develop into something akin to what Radke was.  

That would be phenomenal. 

[nicksaviking]

On 2/1/2022 at 9:30 AM, Major League Ready said:

You mean like Michael Cuddyer or Alex Gordon or Chris Bryant or Michael Taylor or Cody Bellinger or Ben Zobrist or the many many others who successfully played INF and OF.

Craig Biggio, Robin Yount, Darin Erstad, Harmon Killebrew. This is actually a pretty fun game.

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Craig Biggio, Robin Yount, Darin Erstad, Harmon Killebrew. This is actually a pretty fun game.

Eddie Rosario was a converted infielder.  I remember some stiff when Ian Desmond was signed as a free agent and moved to the OF.  This is not something that is not something that is real memorable for me so there are many good examples that I am sure escape me.

[jmlease1]

Law is...fine? Like almost every prospect evaluator, he tends to favor upside/tools over performance and discounts significantly for age. But from a team perspective, it doesn't matter if they make the majors at 22 or 25, or if they have a 12 year career or 15 year.

There's also little variance between #51 on someone like Law's prospect list and #85 (which I'm pretty sure he'd agree with), it's just you have to rank people somehow for the list. Recentcy bias plays for Law as much as anyone: everyone is down a little on Martin because they've all of a sudden decided that he'll never hit for power, which is a pretty silly idea after one year in the minors (especially when dealing with a hand injury).

[dxpavelka]

On 1/30/2022 at 10:23 AM, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Maybe you just haven't met the right one(s)?

What was your first point again?

 

On 2/1/2022 at 9:30 AM, Major League Ready said:

You mean like Michael Cuddyer or Alex Gordon or Chris Bryant or Michael Taylor or Cody Bellinger or Ben Zobrist or the many many others who successfully played INF and OF.

 

19 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You will have to explain to us how playing for the Twins is a barrier to doing something done by many other players for many other teams?  

I don't care what other players do for other teams.  I care what Twins players do for the Twins.  Outside of Cuddy this seldom works for the Twins.  It usually ends up with guys butchering easy fly balls in the outfield.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

 

 

I don't care what other players do for other teams.  I care what Twins players do for the Twins.  Outside of Cuddy this seldom works for the Twins.  It usually ends up with guys butchering easy fly balls in the outfield.

I don't care what players do for other teams either.  Unfortunately for you argument, the validity of the argument that INFers can't or should not play OF is far more accurately assessed by examining the entire population.   You took an ill-conceived position, don't double down by refusing to accept the facts. 

[glunn]

No squabbling, please.

[Prince William]

On 2/4/2022 at 12:13 AM, dxpavelka said:

You named ONE Twin.

Cesar Tovar, Danny Santana, Denny Hocking 

[dxpavelka]

On 2/5/2022 at 8:33 AM, Major League Ready said:

I don't care what players do for other teams either.  Unfortunately for you argument, the validity of the argument that INFers can't or should not play OF is far more accurately assessed by examining the entire population.   You took an ill-conceived position, don't double down by refusing to accept the facts. 

You have yet to present any facts other than that Cuddy played OF.

[dxpavelka]

18 hours ago, Prince William said:

Cesar Tovar, Danny Santana, Denny Hocking 

Cesar Tovar left the Twins FIFTY years ago.  Danny Santana played 135 games in the OF for the Twins.  Hocking played 18 games a year in the OF.  Statistically insignificant. Sorry.

[Prince William]

34 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Cesar Tovar left the Twins FIFTY years ago.  Danny Santana played 135 games in the OF for the Twins.  Hocking played 18 games a year in the OF.  Statistically insignificant. Sorry.

 I am well aware of the era and games played by the members I listed. I expected the fan of the Twins to know that also. Sorry I tried to have a little fun with the the exchange that people seemed to need a little lightning up on. I see it is serious only here unless it is a an unfunny gif