Let's Not Give Up Yet On Aaron Sabato

[Matthew Taylor]

Drafted in the first round less than two years ago, many have moved on from Aaron Sabato as a serious prospect for the Twins. There are still reasons to have hope for the slugging right-hander, though.

On June 23, 2020, the Minnesota Twins selected Aaron Sabato, a bat-first first baseman out of the University of North Carolina with the 27th overall pick of the MLB draft, and signed him to an over-slot bonus of $2.75M. In his final full season at North Carolina prior to the draft, Sabato hit .343/.453/.696 with 18 home runs in 64 games. Sabato immediately found himself as a top-8 prospect in the Twins organization with optimism around that huge bat.

Then came his debut in the pros, when things went south for the big man. In his first season as a professional in 2021, Sabato hit just .202 while striking out in 32% of his plate appearances across his time with Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. As a result of his poor play, Sabato has crashed hard down prospect boards. On MLB.com, Sabato moved from the 8th ranked Twins prospect prior to the 2021 season down to 18th, where he found himself at the end of the season.

While Sabato certainly had a disappointing debut season in pro ball, there are reasons for optimism for the right-handed slugger. 

First of all, Sabato showed that his plate discipline is legit. In 464 plate appearances in 2021, Sabato walked 19.8% of the time. To put that in perspective, only Juan Soto posted a higher BB% in the MLB last season. The high BB% contributed to Sabato still posting an on-base percentage of .373 despite the low batting average of .202.

Additionally, Sabato improved quite a bit following his promotion from Fort Myers to Cedar Rapids. The Low-A Southwest League (Formerly the Florida State League) is notorious for being a league that is tough on batters, and Sabato suffered from that during his time there. However, after he was moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids on August 25, Sabato showed improvement. During his 22 games with the Kernels, Sabato posted a batting line of .253/.402/.613 (1.015 OPS) with eight home runs in 97 plate appearances, after hitting 11 home runs in 367 plate appearances in Low-A. While Sabato maintained a high K% of 33% in High-A, his improved home run rate allowed him to improve his overall slash line greatly. Over the last 23 games of his 2021 season, Sabato crushed nine home runs. His home runs weren’t wall scrapers either, Sabato showed time and time again down the stretch that his power is absolutely legitimate, including center field and opposite-field power.

Aaron Sabato has a lot to improve on if he wants to carve out a career as a big leaguer. As a bat-first first baseman with little defensive ability, Sabato will need to be exceptional with the bat in order to stick, and his low batting average and sky-high strikeout percentage weren’t that. At just 22-years-old, though, and still possessing all of that pedigree as a first-round pick, Sabato shouldn’t yet be counted out as a legitimate prospect. Especially with the ability that the right-hander showed down the stretch with plus-plus power and an exceptional ability to draw walks. Sabato certainly needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but the talent is absolutely still there.

Let’s not give up yet on Aaron Sabato.

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[Dman]

I know SSS shouldn't cloud one's judgement but the trends he has as a bat first player make it hard to be a believer.  The lack of contact and 30% K rate or more is concerning for someone who was supposed to have good contact skills.  I will say the one positive he has and it is a big positive is that walk rate\eye at the plate.  That is the one thing that gives me hope he can bring that K rate down and in time get more contact on more swings.  

It is way too early to give up on Sabato but I can sure see why there is some angst especially since he was a 1st round pick that was supposed to be bat ready.

[Trov]

Who was giving up on him?  I know his early part of his career was not good, but it give up on a guy after one bad half a season, even more so in first pro ball experience shows some short sighted view on prospects. 

[terrydactyls]

Sabato sounds like a perfect candidate to trade to a rebuilding NL team when the DH becomes universal. 

[TwinsDr2021]

He will be 23 this year, so he isn't old yet, but taking a college guy in the first round, you would hope for better results in year one, With that said, if he can duplicate what he did in A+ at AA this year, he will moving up the prospect list.

And to piggy back on terrydactlys he seems like the perfect type of guy to include in a trade, while he may be a decent major league player for a long time he doesn't seem like the type that you will look back on and say, darn he was the wrong guy to trade.

[Doctor Gast]

It's not a matter of giving up on him as it is having an over-abundance of bat 1st players and deficit of frontline MLB ready SPs, CFs and SSs. I agree with Terry that his best value for the team is what he brings in a trade.

[Ryan_K]

Put him in high A or AA, but be sure to surround him with good hitters so we can get some good stats. He could be like Seth Beer so let's get some of that luster back, and trade at the deadline.

 

The other concern is that I remember a report that different leagues in the minors switched out different baseballs during the season without informing teams, so it's hard to tell was a prospect good last year or not. 

[Major League Ready]

What would it mean to give up on him?  I guess giving up would mean to cut him or trade.  Obviously, option 1 is not happening and what would be the point of selling this low?  Hope like hell the upward trend continues.  Then, when the DH becomes a permanent part of the landscape he would be a good trade piece or perhaps or DH for us at some point post Sano / Donaldson.

[jjswol]

Who drafts a first baseman that is bad in the field and has a high strikeout rate with their number one pick. The Minnesota Twins of course.

[PDX Twin]

15 minutes ago, jjswol said:

Who drafts a first baseman that is bad in the field and has a high strikeout rate with their number one pick. The Minnesota Twins of course.

Yes. I pretty much gave up on him two days after the draft. Strikeouts, walks, and occasional homeruns. Yawn!

Don't we already have about 10 of him in the system?

[mikelink45]

I am a Wallner fan, but not Sabato.  When I look at prospect rankings I see 22/23 as the older end.  With players like Sano and Rooker does a bat first 1B make sense?  Wasn't there a pitcher we could have taken?  I hope Sabato makes the majors and does well.  I think the issue is not that we are giving up on Sabato, he has some talent, its just that he does not look like a top prospect nationally or locally. 

[mike8791]

Let's face it -  Sabato is still a horrible #1 draft choice no matter how you spin it!  This FO has failed miserably in top draft choices from Day 1, starting with Lewis who is now no longer ranked in the top 100.  Many of us were appalled by his being the #1 overall pick at the time with all the excellent pitching prospects available.  Wouldn't Green  or Wright look nice on our roster now?  This inability to draft difference makers, coupled with Pohlad's cheapness and Falvine's aversion to make transformative trades, dooms this franchise to mediocrity.

[D.C Twins]

Too late!

[MN_ExPat]

34 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Let's face it -  Sabato is still a horrible #1 draft choice no matter how you spin it!  This FO has failed miserably in top draft choices from Day 1, starting with Lewis who is now no longer ranked in the top 100.  Many of us were appalled by his being the #1 overall pick at the time with all the excellent pitching prospects available.  Wouldn't Green  or Wright look nice on our roster now?  This inability to draft difference makers, coupled with Pohlad's cheapness and Falvine's aversion to make transformative trades, dooms this franchise to mediocrity.

Sabato:

No, Sabato was not a "horrible" draft choice.  Did he have a "good" season (from a fan perspective), no he did not.  But you appear to be glossing over the fact that he continued to make adjustments and actually started to improve as the season went on.  Again, not monumental improvements, but they were clearly there.

Just as you cannot anoint a player the next GOAT and future 1st ballot HOFer for a standout first Pro season, neither can we notify the Inquisition and burn the draftee at the stake for the heresy of (gasp!) attempting to play the sport he loves because a team drafted him.  Besides, players "failing" after being drafted is the norm, not the exception.

Lewis:

We shouldn't legitimately care or even entertain the thought of where any prospect is ranked (other than as fan clickbait).  Who "ranks" prospects?  Sportswriters... not people who actually play/coach/evaluate the game.

Lewis, and Sabato for that matter, will be fine... until such a time as they are not.

I, like you I assume, and many others would love the instant gratification of a player just taking off and leaving little doubt in our minds and then having that hope of success justified by the talking head sportswriters singing their praises. 

At the end of the day, all we are left with is faith.  When it comes to baseball, you have to have it or otherwise all you ever see is... "This inability to draft difference makers, coupled with Pohlad's cheapness and Falvine's aversion to make transformative trades, dooms this franchise to mediocrity."

    

[mikelink45]

11 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Sabato:

No, Sabato was not a "horrible" draft choice.  Did he have a "good" season (from a fan perspective), no he did not.  But you appear to be glossing over the fact that he continued to make adjustments and actually started to improve as the season went on.  Again, not monumental improvements, but they were clearly there.

Just as you cannot anoint a player the next GOAT and future 1st ballot HOFer for a standout first Pro season, neither can we notify the Inquisition and burn the draftee at the stake for the heresy of (gasp!) attempting to play the sport he loves because a team drafted him.  Besides, players "failing" after being drafted is the norm, not the exception.

Lewis:

We shouldn't legitimately care or even entertain the thought of where any prospect is ranked (other than as fan clickbait).  Who "ranks" prospects?  Sportswriters... not people who actually play/coach/evaluate the game.

Lewis, and Sabato for that matter, will be fine... until such a time as they are not.

I, like you I assume, and many others would love the instant gratification of a player just taking off and leaving little doubt in our minds and then having that hope of success justified by the talking head sportswriters singing their praises. 

At the end of the day, all we are left with is faith.  When it comes to baseball, you have to have it or otherwise all you ever see is... "This inability to draft difference makers, coupled with Pohlad's cheapness and Falvine's aversion to make transformative trades, dooms this franchise to mediocrity."

    

What makes Sabato a bad first round pick is that he does not address our needs - even as we project out the four years that he needs in the minors.  At that point he will be a Rooker - 27 years old but not a SS, a Pitcher, an OF.   To object to a draft pick is not to say the player will not succeed at some level, but rather is that what we need?  

[Major League Ready]

58 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Let's face it -  Sabato is still a horrible #1 draft choice no matter how you spin it!  This FO has failed miserably in top draft choices from Day 1, starting with Lewis who is now no longer ranked in the top 100.  Many of us were appalled by his being the #1 overall pick at the time with all the excellent pitching prospects available.  Wouldn't Green  or Wright look nice on our roster now?  This inability to draft difference makers, coupled with Pohlad's cheapness and Falvine's aversion to make transformative trades, dooms this franchise to mediocrity.

I hated the Sabato pick too but I have no problem with the Lewis pick.  Kyle Wright is 26 and has three shots at the ML level where he has been below replacement.  Obviously, he could still be good but he is not a shining example of what could have been.  Obviously, Greene was a high ceiling guy with all the risk associated with HS pitchers.  I do not have any problem with them not going that route at 1/1.  Greene is only 22 but he was mediocre at AAA.  It's a little early to declare him the alternative we should have taken just yet.  Gore and McKay also have question marks so I am going to need a couple more years to make an informed conclusion about what we should have done.

That one I really dislike was Cavaco.  Just too much of a wild card.  Stott or Carroll sure seemed like the right choice then and now.  

[MN_ExPat]

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

What makes Sabato a bad first round pick is that he does not address our needs - even as we project out the four years that he needs in the minors.  At that point he will be a Rooker - 27 years old but not a SS, a Pitcher, an OF.   To object to a draft pick is not to say the player will not succeed at some level, but rather is that what we need?  

Fair enough.  In that regards (and I will freely admit it is probably a matter of semantics), it might be more of a "not the best option or choice" rather than a terrible choice.

But, to play Devil's Advocate, Sabato has hit at every level he has ever played at.  Does that mean I would make that call to draft him there, probably not... but at the same time I can understand why they would make it.

[Linus]

The worst part about this pick is that bat first players with no position that hit 25 homers and strike out a bunch are not hard to find. You don’t need to draft them in the first round. The Cavaco pick doesn’t look too good either but he at least played a premium position and had projectable tools. 

[puckstopper1]

It is too early to give up on Sabato.

However If he becomes the next Miguel Sano, will I be happy with the pick?  Probably not due to the fact that - as others have mentioned - the need for pitching.  The pick will look even worse if pitchers selected after him in the draft become solid major league contributors.

Now if his bat makes him the next Miguel Cabrera, that is a different story. ?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

What makes Sabato a bad first round pick is that he does not address our needs

Never draft for need, especially in round one. Always draft the best player available. A good organization can make trades to balance out positions.

[chpettit19]

Way too early to give up on a kid with 1 year of professional experience. Not predicting he's Mark McGwire in 2 years, but let's not write him off after 1 year either.

My bigger take away from these comments is people's takes on MLB draft strategy. I don't know of a single team who drafts "for need" in the MLB draft. It's basically universally "best player available" with some lean towards organizational depth charts when the evaluations are close enough. What team doesn't need pitching and SSs? You won't find a single ML organization that says they have enough pitching or SSs in their system. Not one. By this logic the first round of the MLB draft should just be teams picking the top rated SS or pitcher on their board. 

The Twins approach is to go after "difference making bats" in the first round if they feel someone available could be one (per Thad Levine). They believe it's easier to get pitchers and improve their velo, spin rates, command, etc. than it is to take a hitter and improve his hand eye coordination, pitch recognition, or sprint speed. So they go after offensive/athletic tools at the top of the draft. They take homerun swings in the attempt to find superstar offensive players as you find far less of them later in the draft than you do pitchers. 

I like the approach. And it's the approach most teams take (within reason when it comes to their evals of players). The draft is an absolute crapshoot. I mean people are angry the Twins took Lewis over Greene, but if you'd asked them at this time last year they'd have been praising the pick with Greene coming off Tommy John and Lewis coming off an AFL MVP award (with the covid year in there for both). There's a reason teams don't care about top 100 lists or make spur of the moment decisions on prospects. Development is far from a linear process. Draft for tools and stick out the ups and downs of a baseball career. That's all teams can do.

[mikelink45]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Never draft for need, especially in round one. Always draft the best player available. A good organization can make trades to balance out positions.

I agree with the premise, but I do not see that Sabato was the best player available.  ESPN wrote - "He's not as athletic as Torkelson and is a below-average defender and runner, and the track record is more limited, but the 70 grade power is legit." They see him as a future DH.

When I look at MLB.com favorite picks I see a lot of players taken after Sabato 

To be fair - Bleacher Reports gives the Twins a B+

[Linus]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Never draft for need, especially in round one. Always draft the best player available. A good organization can make trades to balance out positions.

I misspoke. What I meant was you don’t have to draft this type of player in the first round as they are readily available always. 

[Thegrin]

If I remember correctly, there have been other Twins prospects that improved their batting skills as they faced better pitching.  The more reliable the pitcher is, the easier it is for some batters to hit.  This is especially true for players with a talent for selective hitting.  When the computer is calling balls and strikes, Sabato could excel. 

Although Sabato seems like an odd choice for a first pitch, perhaps he was hands down the best player available at the time.  Besides,  what's wrong with drafting someone to use as trade bait? 

 

[SteelDodo]

Bringing the discussion to back to Sabato specifically (rather than draft philosophy generally), one important point is that he was drafted after his true sophomore year, rather than after his Jr. or Sr. year like most college picks. Furthermore, his bday is in June, making him one of the youngest players in his sophomore class (for comparison, on his draft day, Rooker was one year and 7 months older than Sabato was on his). Naturally, this means he might take a little more time to mature than the average college, bat-first player would be expected to.

[Heistyman]

I hope he's the next Craig Kusick?

 

[Rosterman]

C'mon, You expected him to jump right to the Big Leagues?

 

He got his feet wet in Ft. Myers. The Florida Leagues were notorious last season for pitching starters 3 innings, soemtimes 4 at the most. You were seeing such a wide variety of pitchers. Yes, it wasn't the Instructional League, but still...everyone of those guys you are facing are equal (and some better) than you.

 

Plus you are adjusting from collegiate bats to the wooden ones.

 

He advanced to Cedar Rapids, made some adjustments while facing more seasonsed (okay, that is an understatement) pitchers and did well.

 

2022 will be a good year to see what he does, starting with spring training, hopefully at Cedar Rapids, and then a kick to Wichita, maybe sooner rather than later if the Twins can stop signing minor league free agents. 

 

He has to learn to stay away from his weakness swings (like Sano), but is showing that he can at least get a base-on-ball. Coaches, film will hopefully make that better.

 

Will he be a big bopper than can hit for average? Let's wait until he has at least two seasons under his belt. 

 

 

[MN_ExPat]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

What makes Sabato a bad first round pick is that he does not address our needs - even as we project out the four years that he needs in the minors.  At that point he will be a Rooker - 27 years old but not a SS, a Pitcher, an OF.   To object to a draft pick is not to say the player will not succeed at some level, but rather is that what we need?  

Fair point

[jmlease1]

21 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

Fair enough.  In that regards (and I will freely admit it is probably a matter of semantics), it might be more of a "not the best option or choice" rather than a terrible choice.

But, to play Devil's Advocate, Sabato has hit at every level he has ever played at.  Does that mean I would make that call to draft him there, probably not... but at the same time I can understand why they would make it.

well, low-A is a level and it's fair to say that Sabato did not hit there. He utterly failed to make consistent contact, had a brutally bad batting average and only decent power production.

I think it was fair to have higher expectations for him as a 22 year-old college bat.

[MN_ExPat]

8 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

well, low-A is a level and it's fair to say that Sabato did not hit there. He utterly failed to make consistent contact, had a brutally bad batting average and only decent power production.

I think it was fair to have higher expectations for him as a 22 year-old college bat.

Sorry, should have specified before Professional ball... my bad