The Twins Have Failed Josh Donaldson

[Matt Braun]

A little over two years ago, reports broke that the Twins agreed with Josh Donaldson on a four-year $92 million deal. It’s a surreal experience to look back on that day. Not only was the news groundbreaking—the Twins broke the dam and finally signed a big-name free agent to an expensive contract, but the memory exists in a time and place just weeks before COVID would alter our lives forever. There was hope (at least, as much hope that could exist amongst Minnesota sports fans), as the winds of change seemed to blow in our favor for once. Now? I’m left wondering what ultimately is Donaldson’s legacy on the Twins.

Certainly, Josh Donaldson cannot be the one to blame for the putrid 2021 season; that existed outside of his sphere of influence. Unless he secretly siphoned off all the talent from the pitching staff while bullying Max Kepler by placing pictures of his BABIP in his locker before every game, the disastrous year should not be attributed to him. In fact, I would argue that he did exactly what the team asked of him. His somewhat disappointing 124 wRC+ masks batted ball data that suggests he should have hit at an MVP level in 2021. If those balls allude outfielders like they were supposed to, then we’re talking about Donaldson as a tragic hero, an excellent performer stuck on a bad team. 

Click the link and you'll see enough red to give Senator Joseph McCarthy a heart attack. His xwOBA is right in line with his peak years on the Toronto Blue Jays—some better luck would have altered the season and turned the Twins from bad to... still pretty bad, but with a better third baseman. Ultimately, his batted-ball numbers change little about the team as a whole, but it does improve Donaldson's footing; perhaps the vitriol of fans washes over him if his wRC+ is upped by 30-40 points.

But those balls didn’t safely land in the grass. They were caught. And the team stunk. And stats disagree on his defense. And the team stunk.

So, now we’re halfway through a contract that was supposed to represent a changing tide for the Twins organization, and all there is to show for it is a playoff series sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros, a series that Donaldson did not participate in. The conversation has moved on from discussing Donaldson as the veteran that will lead the Twins to higher greatness. Now we ask whether or not his contract should be dumped onto some rich team like the Mets so that we can warm the seat for Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, or another prospect who represents the soft rebuild the team is inevitably embracing. Funny how much two years can change things. 

But none of this is his fault.

It’s somewhat odd, really, that the team failed solidly in 2021, yet the big-name free agent signing was not the reason for such disaster. Donaldson did as we expected, or, to play off the words of the great Dennis Green; he was who we thought he was. He hit well, made headlines for comments made outside of the diamond, made headlines for comments made inside of the diamond, was told to meet Lucas Giolito outside, met Lucas Giolito outside, and, ultimately, flashed a level of showmanship possibly unmatched in franchise history. If you’re the type who is unimpressed by xwOBA, BABIP, or any other vaguely medicinal-sounding advanced stat, you at least can’t argue that Donaldson has brought entertainment to the team. 

I don’t know if Josh Donaldson will be on the Twins for the 2022 season. The front office has played their cards close to their hand as usual; after the lockout ends, I could wake up to the headline that the team signed Trevor Story and be just as surprised had I woke up to see that they dealt Jorge Polanco. The Twins under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine relish refusing to act until they absolutely must—a bowl is most useful when it is empty, after all. 

If Donaldson remains, he will be left as the eldest leader of a currently youthful squad—just three players currently on the 40-man roster were born during the Reagan administration. The team would have to rebound dramatically to make good on the promises made following the 2019 season. If the Twins decide to trade him, then I can say for sure that it was the team that failed Donaldson, not the other way around. I hope the biggest free-agent signing in franchise history gets the chance to lead a legendary Twins squad properly, but the real world is not as poetic as hopes and dreams; wrongs cannot be righted by the whims of an author and the randomness of life can often spoil even the prettiest of visions.

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[Mark G]

I tend to agree with the article from beginning to end.  Having been a teenager when Billy Martin was manager here for a year, I remember the fire baseball used to have and I love that side of Josh, even when it seems silly.  He wants to win and gets emotional when things don't go that way; the next generation doesn't seem to have the same fire sometimes.  I personally hope we keep him for the last 2 years and rotate him between 3rd and DH enough to keep the fire burning and get him his 500 AB's. We can bring his replacements along in due time, learning from him as they take over. 

[Karbo]

These youngsters can learn a lot from JD. He still is a very good ball player. As the article says last years miserable record can't be pinned on him. I personally would like to see a little more spunk out of some of these guys.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder how much of the difference between his expected performance and actual was his legs and not bad luck. Did he lose out on base hits because of his legs? Did doubles turn into singles? Are teams able to take away other hits because they shift more aggressively not worried about his speed? Certainly infielders can play deeper. His UZR at 3B was the poorest in the league and it wasn’t close. Was it his legs?

What can we expect in 2022? I wouldn’t expect him to play as many games. I still expect a gap between performance and batted ball data. I still expect that the batted ball data will be pretty good.

[Doctor Gast]

I don't think any player should be blamed for a bad 2021 much less Donaldson. Did he live up to expectations? No, but the bar was set pretty high. His poor calves limited him from expressing his fire on the base path and being on the field. The bar that many set for him were MVP, which is still a possibility if they solve his calf problem.

I don't know if trading Donaldson is letting him down as much as (or as mentioned Polanco) being insane. IMO Donaldson is earning his $, not only by his production but also by his mentoring and example  We could never gain close to what we'd be losing by trading him.

[Craig Arko]

I’m sure he weeps all the way to the bank.

[mikelink45]

Donaldson is exactly what we should have expected, but baseball is the true team game.  One player does not make a team win - look at Mike Trout.  He has such gushing support from writers who make him into the greatest player in the game - maybe all time.  So what is the record of the Angels since he has been there?  2,3,3,1,3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 4, 4 in their division.  One player does not make a team succeed.  They can only catch what is hit to them and have 4/5 opportunities at bat.   The SP pitcher and catcher have much more influence on the team.   But even then Steve Carlton in 1972 won 27 games for a last place team.  Yes wins mattered when pitchers were not pulled after 4 innings.  But as great as his record was the Phillies only won 59 games!

He has not let the team down, the team just is not as good as we all hoped. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

41 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think any player should be blamed for a bad 2021 much less Donaldson. Did he live up to expectations? No, but the bar was set pretty high. His poor calves limited him from expressing his fire on the base path and being on the field. The bar that many set for him were MVP, which is still a possibility if they solve his calf problem.

I don't know if trading Donaldson is letting him down as much as (or as mentioned Polanco) being insane. IMO Donaldson is earning his $, not only by his production but also by his mentoring and example  We could never gain close to what we'd be losing by trading him.

Is there a stat for mentoring? I'm not being facetious, though I have been known to do so, I'm just curious because we hear it used a lot on TD; certain players apparently are valued for it and other are not.

Is there a mentoring coach in the locker room that maintains the data? Now that was facetious.

[rv78]

I wonder why the Twins decide to give out big contracts to aging veterans (Donaldson) or oft-injured players (Buxton) and not to players in their prime. Could it be that then they would have to compete for the services of really good players that would actually help them when that player is really good? I don't know what kind of money Toronto gave him when he was in his prime but wouldn't it be great if Minnesota would do something like that? To me signing Donaldson was just another example of the Twins being cheap even if they spent more money than anyone expected. For heavens sake, give a little more and get players in the prime of their career so your return is better. A guy like Trevor Story is 29 years old, not 34. He's at the best point of his career. One can only imagine how much a player like him would impact the Twins roster. Unfortunaltely my guess is the Twins will take the cheap option and sign someone at SS who won't matter like an aging veteran that they can get cheaper. Most of the time you get what you pay for. aka Simmons, Shoemaker, Happ .......... and Donaldson who despite his analytical stats just isn't the player he once was. 

[Old fox]

I am glad Donaldson is on the Twins roster. I don’t think he has let us down. Ownership has let the players and the front office DOWN buy their erratic methods of keeping changing perimeters. One day they talk as if their “rich”and the next day they say their “dirt poor”.  The last time I checked the Pohlads aren’t far behind the Steinbrenner’s family in worth. There is a big difference in management styles and risk assessment style. We can argue there is a difference in fan base but the Steinbrenner’s are much closer to knowing the fans desires than the Pohlad are. 

[jorgenswest]

Not his fault but maybe there is some blame. Should the Twins have devoted more money to pitching? What if they made the same offer to Ryu that winter? It was a step up from the money he received from the Blue Jays. They can then take the Bailey money and find a corner infielder. Is our record better in 2020? Do we win a playoff game with Ryu instead of Dobnak? Is our outlook better for 2022?

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Not his fault but maybe there is some blame. Should the Twins have devoted more money to pitching? What if they made the same offer to Ryu that winter? It was a step up from the money he received from the Blue Jays. They can then take the Bailey money and find a corner infielder. Is our record better in 2020? Do we win a playoff game with Ryu instead of Dobnak? Is our outlook better for 2022?

Would/should winning one playoff game change how we interpret the results of the last 3 years?  

[LastOnePicked]

I agree with so much of this article. Except this: "If the Twins decide to trade him, then I can say for sure that it was the team that failed Donaldson"

Trading Donaldson may be a mercy at this point. He has fire and a determination to bash opponents. That's just not going to happen here for the remainder of his contract. He was meant to supplement an AL Central powerhouse, not a rookie team haphazardly entering a multi-season rebuild. All of his flaws and injuries are magnified on a team like the 2021-23 Twins.

I wish him well. It was a fun signing that ultimately didn't help us win anything important.

[jorgenswest]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Would/should winning one playoff game change how we interpret the results of the last 3 years?  

It starts with one, but think my question there distracts from the point. I regret the words.

Did the front office allocate their resources well in signing Donaldson instead of a starting pitcher? That Donaldson money would have signed a very good starting pitcher. 

[saviking]

Paying big money to aging players with a history of injury is not my favorite types of moves. Cruz was the team leader and mentor of the young kids. He played well and is older than Donaldson and the topic of him letting us down or the Twins letting Cruz down is something I would never have contemplate..  

And I never got the sense the Twins players looked to Donaldson for leadership. He's more of a person that ordains himself in that role. If he wants to be a leader he needs to do it with his bat and stay on the field. Lead by example.

As for whether we should trade him or not I'm fine either way. He is not our savor and the demission needs to be make on getting good value in a trade and move a big chunk of his salary.. If not, let's keep him around and hope for the best. but would prefer he move to DH to leave room at third for our young stud at triple A. Plus it would keep him in more games.

[mikelink45]

After reading the comments I have to add another posting.  Is Donaldson the Twins Cousins?  Two big contracts, lots of expectations and then lots of blame.  It does not matter that the FO in both cases has not put the rest of the team together.  Donaldson has no pitching, Cousins has no offensive line.  But it is their fault.  Baldelli has all the surrounding coaches he can get, but are they doing their jobs well - who knows.  Zimmer put his son and the son of his friend in charge of defense and calling plays - how did that work?  

As I said in my earlier post it is a total team from FO down that wins championships. 

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

I wonder why the Twins decide to give out big contracts to aging veterans (Donaldson) or oft-injured players (Buxton) and not to players in their prime. Could it be that then they would have to compete for the services of really good players that would actually help them when that player is really good? I don't know what kind of money Toronto gave him when he was in his prime but wouldn't it be great if Minnesota would do something like that? To me signing Donaldson was just another example of the Twins being cheap even if they spent more money than anyone expected. For heavens sake, give a little more and get players in the prime of their career so your return is better. A guy like Trevor Story is 29 years old, not 34. He's at the best point of his career. One can only imagine how much a player like him would impact the Twins roster. Unfortunaltely my guess is the Twins will take the cheap option and sign someone at SS who won't matter like an aging veteran that they can get cheaper. Most of the time you get what you pay for. aka Simmons, Shoemaker, Happ .......... and Donaldson who despite his analytical stats just isn't the player he once was. 

How come? The only 3B that year who got more was Rendon (and they weren’t getting him, that’s ridiculous)

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

It starts with one, but think my question there distracts from the point. I regret the words.

Did the front office allocate their resources well in signing Donaldson instead of a starting pitcher? That Donaldson money would have signed a very good starting pitcher. 

I understand where you are going with this and you make a good point.  It appeared to me they definitely would have preferred to sign Wheeler but getting him away from the east coast was a very tall task.  So, I think they agreed with you too.  Bumgarner also had a definite destination in mind and that probably would have been a disaster anyway.  Ryu would have been good but I think most of us were really weary of his durability. 

Here is the good news.  My belief is that they recognize that filling 4 or more spots in the rotation with homegrown players sets up a much better shot at sustained success.  If they were to accomplish this goal, they could afford any top of the rotation SP in the league.  They still need to convince them to come to Minnesota but it's financially feasible.  Even if they spent $35M on a SP, they would still have room to extend a couple players or sign a SS if that does not work out.  I believe that's what they see in the future that many here do not.  Obviously there is no guarantee our SP prospect fill two more holes in 2022.  However, if they do 2023 looks something like this ....

 

[Jacksson]

From the Twins' perspective - They should be looking at trading Donaldson and using those dollars on pitching.

From Donaldson's perspective - He needs to engage the services of a veterinarian to keep his CALVES healthy. 

[DocBauer]

I've thought about the title and general intent of this OP for a little while now before commenting. My answer is NO, the Twins haven't let Donaldson down any more than he let them down in 2020. It's still a team game, injuries and sh*t happens, and as stated above me previously, 1 guy doesn't make an entire season one way or another. (Granted, 1 guy can make a difference).

In the 2020 season the Twins were on a 100 win pace, adjusted,  for the second consecutive year before a brief poor streak. I believe they ended on an adjusted 96 win equivalent. So Donaldson "letting the team down" is as arbitrary as the Twins letting him down in 2021. In other words, a healthy Donaldson in 2020 might have increased the win total slightly. He might have had a key hit in the playoffs and things MIGHT have turned out differently. But as a whole, the Twins did just fine without him for the collective that was the 2020 season.

Fast forward, or rewind, to 2021 with revisionist 20/20 vision. I can't wait to stop re-visting 2021 and I'm even making MYSELF cringe doing so, but here we go again. A healthy Maeda may have changed the entire construct of 2021, and was MONEY in ST before his elbow gave out once the season started. If Happ just pitches the whole season on his 1yr like he has most of his career, like he did his first few games, close to what he did in 2020, we're 4 deep in the rotation. And in THEORY,  we would have bought time for the development for our young pitchers coming up. If a healthy Shoemaker...a cheap flier intended to bridge the gap only...OR a healthy Dobnak simply performs as expected, we're 5 deep. If Colome pitches just like his normal self, not even like his career 2020, we get off to a better start. If Duffey and Rogers don't get off to sow starts, we are better. If, if, if....the entire 2021 season is a season of injuries and poor performance, or at least poor initial performance, the likes I'm not sure I've ever seen!

IF those IF'S were the reality and not what really happened, then Berrios and Cruz are never traded. And who knows how many games the Twins win and what happens in the playoffs. Look at Atlanta. They had a lot of bad "if's" but some very good/lucky "if's" that lead them to a WS very reminiscent of the 1987 Twins.

Best laid plans sometimes just don't work out. Sh*t happens. Think the Dodgers over the past 5-6yrs or so despite 2020 and their payroll and talent. (Not even going to address the new talent brought in to the Twins system recently BECAUSE of what happened that could open the next window. Different discussion).

So neither party here has let the other down.

And while Donaldson IS a "red ass" and I don't always like some of what he says and does, he IS a leader on this team, though in a different way than Cruz was. But like Cruz, from day one when he was in ST, players have been flocking to him to pick his brain, watch him, ask questions, and he's been happy to offer up his perspective and experience. There is no measurement for that, but experience and leadership are real. 

I don't know if trading Donaldson is a possibility or not. For HIS sake, a trade to a contending team could be a blessing in the twilight of his career for another shot. And I don't belive he, his agent, or anyone else would hold it against the Twins to do so mid contract at this point. But I'm really uncertain as to not only what the Twins might receive in players/prospects back, much less how much salary relief they might actually receive as they'd probably have to kick in some $ to get the deal done. But does that really help the Twins in2022? And how much? The OP shows how good his numbers were, and could have been better with just a little more luck. And if you don't believe at least a little bit in luck regarding baseball then you either haven't been watching the game close enough, or long enough, or haven't seen Bull Durham, LOL.

I'm OK if a trade is available and makes sense. But Donaldson is still a great and productive hitter who is primed to repeat his 2021 usage between 3B and DH to keep him fresh. And he's still a fine 3B defensively, though his range has slipped. And there are young options in Arraez and Miranda to fill in and get their time in. I think the Twins will be better off keeping him. Things could change come mid season trade options and the play of Arrzez and Miranda, etc.

So neither side has let the other down. Sh*t happens. And maybe that should have been the byline.

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, Jacksson said:

From the Twins' perspective - They should be looking at trading Donaldson and using those dollars on pitching.

From Donaldson's perspective - He needs to engage the services of a veterinarian to keep his CALVES healthy. 

[Jacksson]

it is called HUMOR, CHawk !!

Donaldson has an injury history with respect to his CALFs.

Baby cows are referred to as calfs.

Animal doctors are called veterinarians.

Therefore, to ensure both himself and the Twins that he is in the best shape possible for the 2022 season and is able to stay healthy, be injury free, and stay on the field, Donaldson needs to hire someone to keep his calfs in shape.  What better person to hire to look after the condition of calves than a VETERINARIAN.

TAKES ALL THE FUN OUT OF IT WHEN THE HUMOR HAS TO BE EXPLAINED.....

 

[cHawk]

8 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

it is called HUMOR, CHawk !!

Donaldson has an injury history with respect to his CALFs.

Baby cows are referred to as calfs.

Animal doctors are called veterinarians.

Therefore, to ensure both himself and the Twins that he is in the best shape possible for the 2022 season and is able to stay healthy, be injury free, and stay on the field, Donaldson needs to hire someone to keep his calfs in shape.  What better person to hire to look after the condition of calves than a VETERINARIAN.

TAKES ALL THE FUN OUT OF IT WHEN THE HUMOR HAS TO BE EXPLAINED.....

 

Oh my bad. I didn’t see that

That’s pretty funny

[wabene]

1 hour ago, cHawk said:

Like the animal, duh.

[Brandon]

As long as their paycheck clears the bank, the Twins are not failing anyone.  Especially someone getting paid 92 to. 100 million.

[Dman]

I think it is a bit of a stretch to say the Twins let Donaldson down.  2020 turned out to be shortened by COVID and Donaldson himself never really got on track that year and the Twins had a pretty fluky year in 2021 where nothing went their way to start the season.

Donaldson was brought in to solidify the Bomba Squad from 2019 and make the lineup incredibly deep with power and they needed his right handed bat.  He was supposed to be a piece that would help them take the next step. So far that plan hasn't worked out and now with so much unknown pitching, 2022 looks like it might not end well either.

Maybe those young pitchers turn out OK this year for the Twins and this team is the hunt for the division title but it feels like a long shot.  I think the Twins will keep Donaldson to start the season there are not really many teams in need of his services at the moment right now anyway and if you look back he did not have ton of suitors for his services in free agency other than Atlanta.  If Donaldson is healthy and has an 800 OPS or higher and the Twins are out of it I could see them trying to trade him at the deadline.  By then another another team might have injured players and need his services or see him as a better option for DH\3rd base going on a playoff run.  His salary will be further paid down as well.  There doesn't seem to be any reason to trade him until the deadline IMO.

I will say this about Josh.  He has been nothing but a good team mate who cares about playing winning baseball.  He has been what the Twins wanted when they signed him it just seems like things moved sideways on this team and its outlook since they signed him. Still there doesn't seem to be any reason to trade him until the deadline IMO.  If the Twins do find some luck they might need his bat yet.

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, saviking said:

Paying big money to aging players with a history of injury is not my favorite types of moves. Cruz was the team leader and mentor of the young kids. He played well and is older than Donaldson and the topic of him letting us down or the Twins letting Cruz down is something I would never have contemplate..  

And I never got the sense the Twins players looked to Donaldson for leadership. He's more of a person that ordains himself in that role. If he wants to be a leader he needs to do it with his bat and stay on the field. Lead by example.

As for whether we should trade him or not I'm fine either way. He is not our savor and the demission needs to be make on getting good value in a trade and move a big chunk of his salary.. If not, let's keep him around and hope for the best. but would prefer he move to DH to leave room at third for our young stud at triple A. Plus it would keep him in more games.

 I agree. Thanks. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Based solely on what I have seen on mlb.com in watching games, and watching interviews, and reading TD religiously, which certainly does not make this statement that I'm about to make, have much validity, if any, however I'm going to write this anyway: My gut feeling is that Donaldson is no Nelson Cruz in the dugout or the clubhouse. At times Donaldson appears to me like a spoiled child. That type of "fire" does nothing to motivate me as a human to achieve a goal. I feel most of us reading this would agree that Kirby Puckett had positive leadership fire. He was a  positive motivator and a  team leader.   He was loved by his teammates.  I certainly could be wrong, but I don't get the impression that Donaldson, as gifted a player as he is, is a team leader. Just because a player is a veteran and has been a very good player in the past, even an MVP, does not automatically qualify him as a positive leader. My definition of a positive leader is one who leads by example. He plays the game the right way. He does the little things. He hustles. He puts his work in every day. He cheers and encourages his teammates (like Cruz was constantly doing). He puts team before self. I do understand the risk in my writing this based on my lack of real knowledge about what goes on behind closed doors, in the clubhouse, in the dugout , in spring training, etc.  And maybe I've just failed to see what really is Donaldson's positive leadership, which the rest of you who have written about Donaldson's value as a team leader, have seen or know about. Maybe it goes on in private, behind the scenes, but I would be surprised if Donaldson is a "behind he scenes" guy. I just have not seen leadership in Donaldson like I saw in Puckett and Cruz. But then they were exceptional leaders.  HOF as leaders as well as players.  When was the last time the Twins had a captain? If the players elected one, who do you think it would be? If I had a vote for Twins captain, I would vote for Byron Buxton to be the positive team leader.  

[Monkeypaws]

Do we have any evidence, quotes, etc. that indicate Donaldson's (dis)satisfaction with the Twins?

[rv78]

19 hours ago, cHawk said:

How come? The only 3B that year who got more was Rendon (and they weren’t getting him, that’s ridiculous)

My point exactly, They never get the best player possible. Why not sign Rendon? Why does this organization always have to sign someone with less talent or in the decline of their career. Quit being cheap. Quit taking left-overs. Maybe then they would quit losing playoff games and actually show they are committed to winning.