Twins Time to Cash in On Ryan Pressly Trade

[Ted Schwerzler]

On July 27, 2018, the Minnesota Twins made a move that many found frustrating when valuing Derek Falvey’s return. The team was mediocre, and Ryan Pressly was one of their best relievers. He was sent to Houston in exchange for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino. In 2022, it may be time for Falvey to cash both those checks.

There was never any question that losing Pressly would hurt the Twins in the short term. He went on to post a 0.77 ERA with Houston over the final half of 2018. In 139 1/3 innings since Pressly has tallied a 2.45 ERA to go with an 11.8 K/9. He had become one of baseball’s best relievers with the Twins and has only ratcheted that up with the Astros. After making 60 appearances in 2021, Pressly’s team option vested into a fully guaranteed $10 million deal for 2022. He’ll hit the open market again before 2023 for his age 34 season.
 
On the Twins side of things, they’ve seen a bit of what both Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino can do, but 2022 should represent an opportunity for both to establish themselves completely. Let’s start in the bullpen with Alcala, as he’s a much more integral piece of the immediate puzzle.
 
Pitching 59 2/3 innings last year for the Twins, Alcala owned a 3.92 ERA to go with a 9.2 K/9. Despite the 0.97 WHIP, his bugaboo was a 1.5 HR/9, pushing his FIP to 4.06. However, what’s worth noting is that it was a tale of two seasons for the Minnesota reliever. Through 40 appearances, he posted a 5.73 ERA and had allowed nine home runs in just 37 2/3 innings. A stretch of 22 innings pitched from that point forward, Alcala owned a 0.82 ERA, keeping opposing batters to a .420 OPS. His 27/3 K/BB was incredible, and only one ball left the yard. That’s what we must hope for coming into 2022.

Derek Falvey didn’t flip Ryan Pressly for what Jorge Alcala was at the time, but he did make that move for what he could be now. At just 26-years-old, Alcala is still pre-arbitration and won’t hit free agency until 2026. Getting an elite level of production out of him for pennies on the dollar over the next four seasons would be a massive victory. He looks the part of a late-inning arm and could undoubtedly eat up closer opportunities should they present themselves. That alone would make the deal worth it, and we’ve yet to discuss Celestino.
 
Forced into action early from Double-A after a run on outfield injuries last season, Celestino appeared in 23 games for the Twins. It went as to be expected, and he posted just a .466 OPS. Defensively the skills looked very close, but the bat needed more time to mature. Going to Triple-A St. Paul the rest of the way, Celestino made his case. Over 49 games with the Saints, he slashed .290/.384/.443 with 18 extra-base hits included five home runs. It was unquestionably his best offensive showing in the minors and should help re-establish his confidence in the future.

Minnesota is always going to need a solid fourth outfielder behind Byron Buxton. I have some feelings about who they should look at outside of the organization, but Celestino could easily play himself into a better option for that role. Without needing to be an impact player immediately on Opening Day, it’s more than fair to suggest Celestino could parlay his strong finish at Triple-A into a forced promotion early on in 2022. Hitting on both inclusions in the Ryan Pressly trade would be the type of result Falvey had undoubtedly envisioned.
 
It’s never easy to evaluate a baseball trade when it is made with an indication of how it will pan out. You can draw conclusions based on the level of prospect returned, but the real evaluation always takes place once players have had an opportunity to develop. Minnesota has pushed both talents through their system and is now ready to cash them in. It could soon become time to call this swap a victory.

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[rv78]

Hindsight makes for an easy evaluation. Losing Pressly at the time hurt but looking at the Twins since then they haven't done anything (no playoff wins) since he's been gone. So, that makes the trade a positive for the Twins. I'm most excited about Alcala and hope Baldelli gives him the closer job out of spring training. There was no reason why he should not have had it the whole month of September instead of Colome. Finally the last game of the season he got to close a game. 

[Dman]

Nice article.  I was a fan of the trade at the time but there are so many angles to look at this trade and so much conjecture that it makes things harder to judge.

This is simply my opinion or lens that I see this deal through.  At the time they traded Pressley we didn’t need him because the team was out of it.  They did have another year of control left but at that time the team didn’t look like it would easily rebound the following year.  In hindsight they did and certainly could have used a reliever like Pressley that year but they did manage to win 100 games without him as well so not sure what “extra” value he could have really brought that year.  Especially since the Homer happy Twins offense did not show up for the post season.

The other questions are would the Twins have extended Pressley and would they have gotten as much out of him as Houston?  The Astros gave Pressley a two year extension for 17.5M with a vesting option for 10M would the Twins have done the same thing?  They typically don’t invest much in the relief core, however they did a similar deal for Addison Reed.  Would they have done the same for Pressley?  Or would Pressley have waited for free agency because he did have this to say after signing with the Astros.  " he said. "This is just a good fit for me and my family, being from Texas and my fiancé from Houston and a lot of my friends and family are in Houston. This was a big reason I wanted to be a part of the Astros."

Hard to say how that all would have worked out if they didn’t trade him and if they would have just let him walk then having hindsight I prefer that they traded him.  If they could have worked something out then that is a tougher decision for me.

Pressley’s stuff improved dramatically after being traded.  Would the Twins have found the same magic and helped Pressley improve?  Hard to say but given what happened it seems they likely were not going to get the same level of performance out of him.

Part 2 of the trade brought us Celestino and I have to wonder would the Twins have protected Baddoo if Celestino hadn’t needed to be added to the 40 man ahead of him?  So by gaining a player did we lose a player that might be even better?  Again hard to say.  They might not have felt a need to protect Baddoo no matter what but it does make me wonder.

Alcala certainly has the ability to be close to as effective as Pressley in time and for a more reasonable salary but to this point he has been too inconsistent to say for sure.

If both players work out then I would say the trade was worth it but it is going to be hard to catch up to Pressley’s performance to this point and he isn’t done yet.

[puckstopper1]

I was not as upset as some over the Pressly at the time.  He was good for the Twins, but went to the next level with the Astros.  Would he have done that if he stayed with the Twins?  Maybe.

I also trusted the scouting reports of the experts on this site who felt the Twins might have obtained a couple of key pieces for "down the road".  As Ted eloquently lays out, the "down the road" is now.  Alcala has become s solid major league contributors, and lets hope that Celestino continues his development and becomes one also.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a big fan of Celestino and Alcala. We've desperately needed for a long time a true CF to back up Buxton, our hope is on Celestino. Celestino was the main focus on that trade. Unfortunately due to mismanagement Celestino was prematurely rushed up to MLB this has set him back some. Once he gets his confidence back, he'll come & fulfill his MLB role. Alcala has been the surprise, lately, he has looked fantastic against RH hitters and now with his 3rd pitch, he can challenge LHs. IMO he could be used now as a SP or at least a high leverage RP. Even though,

Losing Pressly was painful. He has been and still is a great reliever for the Astros with years still ahead of him. Although we've had  good BPs, Pressly could've stayed off their eventual meltdown. Hindsight w/o Celestino and Alcala on the 40 man, we should've been able to keep Baddoo. His LH platoon w/ Buxton last year would've been invaluable. 

Although I like Celestino & Alcala, I'm not ready to call this trade a success.

[DJL44]

I see Ramon Laureano as a good comp for Celestino. He could be an average MLB centerfielder.

[mikelink45]

We lost the trade, so we move on.  Yes I want Alcala and Celestino on the team, but what Pressly did for the champion Astros is not something we can match unless we also get into the WS and win playoff games.  Otherwise they are good players on an okay team and do not raise the bar.  Pressly has been everything that the Astros wanted and they have been winning - good job Astros.  Let's see what you got Twins. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Hindsight makes for an easy evaluation. Losing Pressly at the time hurt but looking at the Twins since then they haven't done anything (no playoff wins) since he's been gone. So, that makes the trade a positive for the Twins. I'm most excited about Alcala and hope Baldelli gives him the closer job out of spring training. There was no reason why he should not have had it the whole month of September instead of Colome. Finally the last game of the season he got to close a game. 

Colome over Alcala when the season was already lost. Yet another example of player/team mismanagement by Rocco. Scares me to think what he's going to do with the young players coming up in 2022. If there's a 2022 season. If the Twins actually bring the youngsters up... That's like a herd of elephants in the room. Where's Tarzan when you need him?

[bean5302]

I think one thing is pretty certain, we'll know a lot more about Alcala and Celestino this year. Honestly, I think this is a make or break season for Falvey and his staff. Lewis, Cavaco, Larnach, Rooker. At least a couple of those guys need to really show up. One of either Martin or Woods-Richardson, too. Then there are the pitching prospects. We need a couple of Falvey's drafted prospects to perform at the MLB level as well.

[Rosterman]

Pressley was a strange commodity. He was a cheap Rule 5 pickup. He was entering his 30th year, still had one more year of arbitration, but the Twins didn't seem to need him, or feel he was worth a longterm committment. Let alone if he had pitched that way for the Twins as he did for Houston, would the Twins have made him one of their highest paid bullpen arms ever.

 

Which makes you wonder: Why don't the Twins keep their own arms? Was Trevor May worth what the Mets paid? Would Pressley be a good longterm investment? Should the Twins sign Taylor Rogers to a multi-year expensive contract?

 

Alcala will have a good year in 2022. Will it be a great year? Can he get into a mindset that might make him a potential closer? 

 

I felt the Twins were hoping that Alcala might be a rotation arm, rather than a bullpen arm. I'm also not totally sure about the reasoning behind Celestino, who was still quite raw and young. Future centerfield option if Buxton became too expensive, perhaps? Remember, if Buxton had full seasons, but put up the average of his part-time numbers, he would be commanding a lot more in arbitration. Would the Twins have done that?

 

Regarding Baddoo vs. Celestino. Interesting that the Twins felt the need to add eitehr to the 40-man. Both were young. Both had not played above A+ ball. Looking at Baddoo and coming off an injury, that was a major gamble for the Tigers to take. Baddoo would've been at High-A and maybe AA for the Twins in 2021. Celestino would've spent all that Twins time he had at AA in 2022, but because of the outfield need got the quick advance to AAA, then the Twins, then seemed fruitless to send him back to AA ball...and he shined at AAA, compared to the other jumper Larnach, who could've easily gone back to AA. Is there something that doesn't allow major league guys to drop back down to AA anymore, unless on a rehab assignment? I rad soemthing about AA guys not being able to jump directly to the majors. What gives.

 

At best, the Twins would've had the remainder of the season and the next with Pressley...because he would've tested the marketplace.

 

Alcala has showed worth already and has at least four more seasons with the Twins. If he can dominate and become a closer, he could be that arm investment that the Twins have yet to make for their bullpen for a half-decade after that. Assuming he would want to stay with the Twins. Celestino will start at St. Paul and show if he can be a good fourth outfielder if the call comes, or a replacement at either corner in seasons ahead, showing power and speed.

 

Solid trade for the Twins.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Pressly has been good for the Astros. There is no guarantee that he would have pitched as well with the Twins. Alcala looked really tough in the last part of 2021 and seems poised to step forward to lead the bullpen. Finally, despite a difficult introduction to MLB last year, Celestino showed resilience and talent in St. Paul. The Twins only need him to be a pesky 4th outfielder, not a starter. I feel good about this trade.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 hours ago, Dman said:

Nice article.  I was a fan of the trade at the time but there are so many angles to look at this trade and so much conjecture that it makes things harder to judge.

This is simply my opinion or lens that I see this deal through.  At the time they traded Pressley we didn’t need him because the team was out of it.  They did have another year of control left but at that time the team didn’t look like it would easily rebound the following year.  In hindsight they did and certainly could have used a reliever like Pressley that year but they did manage to win 100 games without him as well so not sure what “extra” value he could have really brought that year.  Especially since the Homer happy Twins offense did not show up for the post season.

The other questions are would the Twins have extended Pressley and would they have gotten as much out of him as Houston?  The Astros gave Pressley a two year extension for 17.5M with a vesting option for 10M would the Twins have done the same thing?  They typically don’t invest much in the relief core, however they did a similar deal for Addison Reed.  Would they have done the same for Pressley?  Or would Pressley have waited for free agency because he did have this to say after signing with the Astros.  " he said. "This is just a good fit for me and my family, being from Texas and my fiancé from Houston and a lot of my friends and family are in Houston. This was a big reason I wanted to be a part of the Astros."

Hard to say how that all would have worked out if they didn’t trade him and if they would have just let him walk then having hindsight I prefer that they traded him.  If they could have worked something out then that is a tougher decision for me.

Pressley’s stuff improved dramatically after being traded.  Would the Twins have found the same magic and helped Pressley improve?  Hard to say but given what happened it seems they likely were not going to get the same level of performance out of him.

Part 2 of the trade brought us Celestino and I have to wonder would the Twins have protected Baddoo if Celestino hadn’t needed to be added to the 40 man ahead of him?  So by gaining a player did we lose a player that might be even better?  Again hard to say.  They might not have felt a need to protect Baddoo no matter what but it does make me wonder.

Alcala certainly has the ability to be close to as effective as Pressley in time and for a more reasonable salary but to this point he has been too inconsistent to say for sure.

If both players work out then I would say the trade was worth it but it is going to be hard to catch up to Pressley’s performance to this point and he isn’t done yet.

Good analysis of some of the unknowns and variables in this trade. Thanks Dman.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I confess I was against this trade at the time. Now after reading this interesting article and the fine comments to the article, I believe Falvine may know more about running a baseball team then I did at the time. It looks like it may turn out to be a good trade for the Twins. I'm not worthy.

[old nurse]

I don’t think it is unreasonable to think a guy with a big tattoo of Texas on his back, grew up in Texas and married someone from there would have went there once free agency was an option. The Twins did more than good to get the talent that they did get from Houston versus losing him for nothing

[Jham]

Craziness. The only chance we had to win this trade was lost when Alcala became a reliever. Effective relievers are a dime a dozen. Back up outfielders are nickel for fifty. Celestino-ish players are always available on waivers. He's not an upgrade from Cave let alone Akil Badoo who was always a better hitter.

Alcala will never have a single year as effective as Presley's average over his contract and extension. Dominant relievers are rare and valuable. 

It's funny. The game has become so analytics based, but we lose sight of some of the most fundamental tenets of statistics such as the bell-shaped normalcy curve and standard deviations from the mean. We could have gotten Alcala's and Celestino's equivalents without trading Presley. End of story.

 

[Brandon]

I think it all depends on how you value Pressley.  Remember he wasn't acquired for much just a rule 5 draft pick.  those are just lottery tickets to begin with.  He gave us a great return on that pick.  then we get 2 prospects one of which is looking good and has 4 years left and is getting better.  The other minor leaguer looks like he could be a useful 4th OF for us or possibly a LF or RF and provide some more value.  I think we got quite a bit from that rule 5 pick.  

[h2oface]

We could have used him in 2019. He could have been the difference in playoff victories. 3 1/2 seasons later (or just 3 if you could 2020 as a half season), Alcala and Celestino, at this time, still, are hope and dreams, and not even close to the value Pressly has provided in that same time, or even just in the 2019 season, all in the Show, and not the minors. Not even close. Still a losing trade. Trading winning now in a 100+ win season of 2019 for the maybe of the future on perhaps mediocre teams? Big lose.

[h2oface]

9 hours ago, Rosterman said:

.......At best, the Twins would've had the remainder of the season and the next with Pressley [sic] because he would've tested the marketplace.......

Berrios was going to test the marketplace, too. But didn't. He signed a more than fair value extension. So did Pressly. Go figure. 

[rv78]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

Berrios was going to test the marketplace, too. But didn't. He signed a more than fair value extension. So did Pressly. Go figure. 

Berrios had no intention of staying with the Twins and Pressly resigned with Houston because it is home for him. Both wanted to play for an organization that is committed to winning, not pretending or just being "competitive".

[rv78]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

We could have used him in 2019. He could have been the difference in playoff victories. 3 1/2 seasons later (or just 3 if you could 2020 as a half season), Alcala and Celestino, at this time, still, are hope and dreams, and not even close to the value Pressly has provided in that same time, or even just in the 2019 season, all in the Show, and not the minors. Not even close. Still a losing trade. Trading winning now in a 100+ win season of 2019 for the maybe of the future on perhaps mediocre teams? Big lose.

He wouldn't have mattered in the 2019 playoffs. The Twins were beat in all 3 games before he would have been used out of the bullpen. The 3 games against the Yankees were 10-4, 8-2. and 5-1. No chance he would have made a difference. In 2020 it wasn't pitching that caused them to lose against Houston, it was that they couldn't score. Only 1 run in each game.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Jham said:

Craziness. The only chance we had to win this trade was lost when Alcala became a reliever. Effective relievers are a dime a dozen. Back up outfielders are nickel for fifty. Celestino-ish players are always available on waivers. He's not an upgrade from Cave let alone Akil Badoo who was always a better hitter.

Alcala will never have a single year as effective as Presley's average over his contract and extension. Dominant relievers are rare and valuable. 

It's funny. The game has become so analytics based, but we lose sight of some of the most fundamental tenets of statistics such as the bell-shaped normalcy curve and standard deviations from the mean. We could have gotten Alcala's and Celestino's equivalents without trading Presley. End of story.

 

Who is to say Alcala won't become dominant?  He has the raw stuff and he was dominant the end of last season.  For that matter it's not out of the question that he be transitioned back to starting.  There is also a good chance we are going to see a lot of hybrid (2-4 inning) guys going forward across the league.

It's funny we don't recognize Pressley had one more year of control.  It's convenient to assume we would have unlocked his potential and we can't assume assume he would have stayed had the Twins been able to unlock his potential.  It's funny we lose sight of the fact Oakland and Tampa have had enormous success making trades like this one.  There are countless other examples as well.  It's funny people don't recognize we won 100 games the year after he left and we are also ignoring his presence was not going to change that our offence did not show up in that playoff series.

While Pressley was great, his absence made little impact for the year and two months we lost him.  Before weu talk about bell-curves and analytics we should validate assumptions because the assumptions he would have done the same thing here and then signed an extension is not a valid assumption.

[DJL44]

I think people are underrating Celestino. I think he's going to be at least as good of a hitter as Akil Baddoo and a better fielder. He could be an average CF. The Twins have Buxton so Celestino is mostly valuable as trade bait once he establishes himself at the major league level. Then we can have at least 100 different TwinsDaily threads about whether the Twins should trade, keep or extend Celestino.

 

[Fatbat]

The jury is still out. We need to win a ws and have Alcala  and Celestino in the line up in the next 3-4 years to call it a win. If that doesn’t happen, it’s just a push to a dream that 2 youngsters can be better than a known commodity. 

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Who is to say Alcala won't become dominant? 

It's funny we don't recognize Pressley had one more year of control.  It's convenient to assume we would have unlocked his potential and we can't assume assume he would have stayed had the Twins been able to unlock his potential.  It's funny we lose sight of the fact Oakland and Tampa have had enormous success making trades like this one.  There are countless other examples as well.  It's funny people don't recognize we won 100 games the year after he left and we are also ignoring his presence was not going to change that our offence did not show up in that playoff series.

While Pressley was great, his absence made little impact for the year and two months we lost him.  Before weu talk about bell-curves and analytics we should validate assumptions because the assumptions he would have done the same thing here and then signed an extension is not a valid assumption.

History says Alcala likely won't be dominant, doesn't mean it won't happen. Also the last 20 innings or so he pitched when he was pretty much lights out more than half of those innings were against terrible, terrible teams, Det, KC, Cubs,

Actually if you only look at his stats all year against terrible teams, he was pretty dominant the whole season, it was really how terrible he pitched against the CHW that end up making his numbers not look really good for the whole year.

You are correct nobody knows that happens with the twins in 2019 with Pressly, maybe with him they win two more games and start at home, maybe without Pressley the Astros don't win 107 and the twins end up with home field though out.

At this point IMO it isn't even close how the Twins did with this trade, they have gotten destroyed, that doesn't mean at the end of this the Twins can't or won't win this trade, but as of today it is not even close.

The Twins have gotten 85.1 innings, 1 save, 11 holds, and 5 blow saves, and an embarrassing 23 games by Celestino. Houston has been in 2 of the last 3 world series, Pressly has been an all start twice. pitched 162 inning with 43 saves, 45 holds and 13 blown saves.

To good thing for the Twins is they traded away a relief pitcher, so if Celestino ends up being a starting MLB outfielder for a few years, the Twins will more than likely win this trade based on WAR no problem.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Baddoo would've been at High-A and maybe AA for the Twins in 2021.

It is crazy to think how many players that are good enough to be major league players, but are stuck in High A or AA because of the philosophy that is how it has to go?

The Tigers got 2.1 WAR from Baddoo, and the Twins would have gotten a high A player maybe a AA player, not because they are so loaded in the outfield but just because.

[USAFChief]

Give me Pressly over Alcala and Celestino every time.

[USAFChief]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

I think it all depends on how you value Pressley.  Remember he wasn't acquired for much just a rule 5 draft pick.  those are just lottery tickets to begin with.  He gave us a great return on that pick.  then we get 2 prospects one of which is looking good and has 4 years left and is getting better.  The other minor leaguer looks like he could be a useful 4th OF for us or possibly a LF or RF and provide some more value.  I think we got quite a bit from that rule 5 pick.  

How he was acquired is not relevant. Albert Pujols was a 13th round draft pick...a lottery ticket. Would you have traded peak Albert Pujols for Alcala and Celestino and considered it "quite a bit of value for a 13th round pick?"

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, Jham said:

Craziness. The only chance we had to win this trade was lost when Alcala became a reliever. Effective relievers are a dime a dozen. Back up outfielders are nickel for fifty. Celestino-ish players are always available on waivers. He's not an upgrade from Cave let alone Akil Badoo who was always a better hitter.

Alcala will never have a single year as effective as Presley's average over his contract and extension. Dominant relievers are rare and valuable. 

It's funny. The game has become so analytics based, but we lose sight of some of the most fundamental tenets of statistics such as the bell-shaped normalcy curve and standard deviations from the mean. We could have gotten Alcala's and Celestino's equivalents without trading Presley. End of story.

 

That assumes that you could have signed Presley which is an assumption that is totally strawman. They would have had one more year of Presley. Alcala is more than capable of being what was Presley was with the Twins. What Celestino is going to be is not yet determined. Where is it ever been documented that baseball performance is a bell curve?

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It is crazy to think how many players that are good enough to be major league players, but are stuck in High A or AA because of the philosophy that is how it has to go?

The Tigers got 2.1 WAR from Baddoo, and the Twins would have gotten a high A player maybe a AA player, not because they are so loaded in the outfield but just because.

The way the season played out last year they might have called up Baddoo over Celestino

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

That assumes that you could have signed Presley which is an assumption that is totally strawman. They would have had one more year of Presley. Alcala is more than capable of being what was Presley was with the Twins. What Celestino is going to be is not yet determined. Where is it ever been documented that baseball performance is a bell curve?

isn't it an assumption they wouldn't have signed him? Maybe they trade him at the deadline for even better prospects the next year,  Isn't everything an assumption at this point, other than what has happened? What we know is that the Houston has been in 2 of the last three world series and they resigned Pressly (see stats in my previous post) and the two prospects they Twins got haven't done anything (minus 20 good innings in a lost season with zero pressure). At this point the Twins lost this trade and it isn't even close, but the Twins have control over the prospects for a few more years and there is time for the Twins not to look horrible and even look great on this trade. But for the first three plus years the have came out on the losing end.