April 15, 201313 yr I'm not really saying that. More, that elite hitters are more likely to come from the 1st round or INTL FA now. The data pre-2001 shows there was more talent picked-up in later rounds than there is now. It also didn't have a single INTL FA, which was surprising. I agree it does show that while the odds are lower, there are still talented players being drafted in later rounds.... unlike Ace level pitchers. I guess I misunderstood then. I agree that the international signings were non existant in the pre-2001 data was very surprising. I think the biggest thing that I've taken away from this whole exercise is that elite Aces are only found in the 1st round. Fringe Aces (for lack of a better term) can be found going into the second round but after that it is almost impossible to find an Ace. Where as some elite hitters can be found later in the draft. I think it would be interesting to break down the hitters by position. I wonder if it is harder to find elite SS's and CF's late in the draft too.
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