The Twins Need Buxton Insurance

[Ted Schwerzler]

In November, the Minnesota Twins finally paid Byron Buxton. That was the right move all along, and it looks the part of a fair deal for both sides. One caveat to the talented centerfielder is his availability. With that in mind, do the Twins have a built-in insurance policy?

Leader of the “Pay. The. Man” campaign, I’ve always been a staunch supporter of the Twins locking Buxton up long term. My follow-up to that suggestion has always been the need for a capable fourth outfielder. Jake Cave hasn’t been that for quite some time, and despite a brief renaissance period for Rob Refsnyder, he’s not that guy either. Minnesota needs someone with the ability to start in centerfield over two weeks and hold serve.

Currently, there are only two potential options on the 40 man roster:

Nick Gordon
Earning himself run because of his versatility last season, Gordon played 73 games for the Twins. Despite having played solely on the dirt in the minor leagues, he looked comfortable in the outfield. The defense should improve as he settles into the role, but the bat is where things may break down. His .647 OPS last season isn’t going to get it done, and with minimal power to his credit, he’ll need to expand heavily upon his on-base profile. Steamer projects a .697 OPS in 2021, and while still not good enough, it’s worth noting that he’s improved at every level in year two. I don’t think he’s the guy, but I like the idea of Minnesota rostering him as he brings a speed threat that has otherwise been missing.

Gilberto Celestino
This is an interesting case in that Celestino was thrust into action during 2021 before being ready. Celestino was promoted as a 22-year-old after just 21 games in Double-A with no centerfield options available. He understandably was overmatched, posting a .466 OPS in 23 MLB games. The defense has always been his calling card, and that too looked out of sorts at times. Settling back in at Triple-A St. Paul, Celestino turned it on. In 49 games, he posted an .827 OPS and was back to being strong in the outfield. The additional time to settle in no doubt helped regain confidence, a talent that can translate to the highest level. Celestino will be just 23-years-old in 2022 and remains someone to watch for the future. Steamer projections have him at a .692 OPS in 2022, which would be a substantial jump from his debut. Handing him the fourth outfielder role on Opening Day may be a bit soon, but a repeat of the Triple-A numbers should suggest he’s ready. This could become an option sooner rather than later.

If Derek Falvey wants to go beyond the organization, options exist there as well. Some of that has to do with how the Twins move forward in trading assets. Max Kepler is a defensive stalwart in right field and can undoubtedly cover in center should Buxton go down. That allows the fourth outfielder to be less of a center-mandated role. However, if he’s not in the picture, things get understandably more complicated.
 
The high end of the free-agent market would be signing corner and sometimes center outfielder Kris Bryant. That’s a bat that has fit the Twins for a while but would seem like a longshot at best. The more economical veteran options are a who’s who of retreads. Names such as Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, and Billy Hamilton are all there. However, if there’s someone I’ve got my eye on, it’s another former Cub, Albert Almora.

Since his top prospect days, Almora's stock has dropped after playing strong defense and posting a .777 OPS in his first two seasons. He’ll be just 28 in 2022, though, and a trip to the American League could be good for him. With the Mets Triple-A club last season, he owned a .759 OPS, and Steamer projections have him at a .691 OPS in 2022. If there’s a guy with upside to bank on while still having done it already, this is where I’m looking. Minnesota signing Almora to a two-year deal, or one with an option, would make Byron Buxton’s over-under of 120 games less of a gamble.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins should want to get back to an outfield defense similar to 2020. Before being 12th in defensive runs saved a year ago, Minnesota was third in 2020. Defenders that can prevent runs will be at a premium whether the staff lacks top-tier talent or throws out young arms. The more confidence you can feel from the top four outfielders, the better.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

View full article

[mikelink45]

I believe that Celestino is the answer.  That is what they demonstrated this year and he will only be better each year from now on. 

[wsnydes]

Celestino is probably the immediate insurance policy.  I don't have an issue with Gordon if Celestino's bat continues to flounder though.

I'd really like to know what the organization is planning for Martin.  If they want him to stick at SS, then he should keep playing there.  But if they don't think he can stick there, CF insurance is a good role for him if Buxton is out for an extended period of time.

[old nurse]

Almora has not had a decent season in the last 4. It is more optimistic that he could bounce back to a level near adequate much less the player that was in the top 20 prospect status than the optimism of Buxton playing so much you don’t need an insurance policy. 

[Dman]

I think the Gordon, Celestino analysis is spot on.  Lewis and Martin could be options there as well depending on how well they perform to start the year. I know they need\want Lewis at SS so maybe he wouldn't be the greatest option but he could play center if needed.  The Twins would have to be hard pressed to add Martin to the 40 man early with all the talent they have coming up but if he is raking and proves he is ready I think they might do it.

At any rate both Gordon and Celestino can play a decent center field they just need to up their game with the bat.  Here's hoping they both do just that.

[Doctor Gast]

I think the Twin thought we had Superman when Buxton was coming up through the minors so they never gave a real thought about a sub. That lack of planning has really hurt the team. They had deceived themselves when they thought Cave was good enough. In his best years we lost 3 out 4 games when he played CF. 

We haven't had an active solution for so long. Celestino has been a future sub but because of them thrusting him there, I see it would delay his actual role and we shouldn't prematurely count on him this season.

Regretfully I believe we need to go finally outside the organization to begin the season. Almora, Hamilton or someone else that can really play CF, could be a solution. Buxton had trouble his 1st few years but his defense kept him in the game also the confidence that was place in him to turn it around offensively. Maybe that all these young veteran need.

[Linus]

Well we have needed a legit back up center fielder (preferably a right handed hitter) for about 5 years and it hasn’t happened. So I have no anticipation that it is going to happen now. 

[Monkeypaws]

Aren't we forgetting Kepler?

[miracleb]

Gordon would be a good story if he was a 19th round draft pick who worked his way up through the minors.   If he was just 22 years old there could be a case that there is still potential there.   If he is getting significant innings in 2022, the Twins are once again a last place team.   He probably will fill a utility roll with the club this year and play significant innings......which means............

[Heistyman]

An interesting free agent is Aaron Altherr who is looking to return from the KBO where he had 2 fine seasons.  Altherr is a good center fielder and always had the tools but never put it altogether.  It looks like he may have done that in the KBO and may be a good insurance policy to Buxton and a possible trade chip if he blossoms.

[Trov]

I am not mad they signed Buxton, but the author wanted him signed, and then says now they also need to get a legit MLB backup for him.  That was always my issue with Buck, is his constant missing games and only able to count on about 80 games a year and a need for a backup. 

At nearly 15 a year you should expect you can get a full season from him.  Now, if we do not have a viable backup for him in the system we need to go out and trade for or sign one.  Well, if they are a legit MLB CF you cannot afford to pay for a starter to be a back up, unless they play corner spot and slide over when needed.  

To me, since you paid him, you need to hope his health stays, or hope your system has someone that can fill in.  Do not go out and pay someone else to fill in when needed.  Then you are investing way too much money in CF because your guy cannot stay on field. 

[RJA]

I think if they keep Kepler, the FO will stand pat thinking that Celestino may be ready by mid summer if he continues to play well at St. Paul.  If Kepler is traded, I suspect they will look for a defense first player on a minor league contract that they can call up in the event of injury if Celestino, or maybe Contreras, isn't ready.  If Buxton stays healthy, I suspect they will use Gordon on those days when Buxton takes a rest.  It will be interesting to see what they do.

[jmlease1]

I think Celestino will be the answer as Buxton insurance. He may not be ready for the 4th OF role out of spring training (but I'd bet he'll compete for it), but I do think he's much more ready to step in if Buxton gets hurt in say late May/early June and we need someone to play CF every day. Kepler can fill in occasionally right now if Buxton needs a day off, if Celestino doesn't head north with the big club.

I also think that Martin might be ready as early as midseason to step in if there's a run of injuries again. Gordon is a decent enough stop-gap and if he makes the team as a utility guy, maybe he's the one who gives Buxton a break in the OF every now and then. (I don't see him as hitting enough to be an every day player...but I'm rooting for the dude to prove me wrong.)

All of this is by way of saying: not really interested in spending any real money on a backup to one of the best players in baseball, and definitely not interested in burning any prospect capital to bring in a backup, especially with the young options we have in the system. The depth chart (for everyday CFs) probably looks like: Buxton, Celestino, Martin with Gordon & Kepler as short-term fill-in options. That's not bad and significantly better than where we were last season, as Celestino was just getting started in AA, Martin wasn't with the franchise, and Gordon had never played an inning in CF, leaving us basically with Cave & Kepler as backup option. (yes, some of this was our own doing, as we let Wade go to keep Cave and didn't protect Baddoo...but that's the way it goes.) 

[Nashvilletwin]

In ‘22, some combination of Kepler, Gordon and Celestino are our backup CFers, with Kepler possibly moved before the deadline. 
 

In ‘23 and hopefully for several additional years - provided our prospects develop and depending what we do at SS - Martin, Lewis and Celestino are the primary backups for Buxton. If those three develop nicely, we have no issues re a satisfactory Buxton replacement.  
 

[Rosterman]

Going into 2022 Celestino should prove worthy. EWxpect him to start and play everyday in St. Paul.

 

The bigger question is how long does Buxton stay in center before rotating out to one of the corners.

[Christian Ryan]

14 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think the Twin thought we had Superman when Buxton was coming up through the minors so they never gave a real thought about a sub. That lack of planning has really hurt the team. They had deceived themselves when they thought Cave was good enough. In his best years we lost 3 out 4 games when he played CF. 

We haven't had an active solution for so long. Celestino has been a future sub but because of them thrusting him there, I see it would delay his actual role and we shouldn't prematurely count on him this season.

Regretfully I believe we need to go finally outside the organization to begin the season. Almora, Hamilton or someone else that can really play CF, could be a solution. Buxton had trouble his 1st few years but his defense kept him in the game also the confidence that was place in him to turn it around offensively. Maybe that all these young veteran need.

You don't make plans for a "sub". You can pick up any 4th outfielder in free agency every year. You never make plans for a sub/4th outfielder.

[nicksaviking]

If they retain Kepler, I don't need to look too hard for additional CF depth. 

If they do trade him, I'd LIKE Martin to be the fall back option, but I suppose they'd be best served to have an Almora type on hand at this time.

But in regards to the Kepler situation, I really do like having the back up CF be a guy who's already in the regular lineup. Whether the back up remains Kepler, or in the future it's Martin or Royce Lewis, it's just better for roster construction. I don't want to have to roster a blackhole bat just so the team has a backup centerfielder, I'd rather use that roster spot on someone who can help out offensively.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Christian Ryan said:

You don't make plans for a "sub". You can pick up any 4th outfielder in free agency every year. You never make plans for a sub/4th outfielder.

You don't make plans for a sub corner OF, 2B, 1B or 3B (those positions aren't critical and easily find subs) but if you are serious (teams like LAD) you had better have a darn good back up CF or SS especially if you think there'll be a long period of replacement. If you don't mind losing, yeah sure nothing matters. FO definitely shared your philosophy last season. If you keep doing the same mistakes don't expect to see different results.

[TwinsFan2005]

They don’t need to sign any more OFs, Celestino and Contreras are both MLB ready

[High heat]

I think 2022 is going to be a year of figuring out what the Twins have in the upper minors.

 

you have a lot of guys in the upper minors and on the40 that have a lot of talent and need to be productive and fill in at the major league level.  
 

Celestino and Gordon have to be the plan early and Martin later in the yr.

[RedneckRay]

I really like signing Kevin Pillar. He’s not gonna produce a lot at the plate, but most outfield backups don’t. What he will give you is an amazing glove at all 3 positions, good speed on the base paths, and a lot of heart. The dude gives 110% every time he’s out there, and I think he’s a good veteran presence to have alongside Buxton for Larnach and Kiriloff.

 

[Heiny]

21 hours ago, RedneckRay said:

I really like signing Kevin Pillar. He’s not gonna produce a lot at the plate, but most outfield backups don’t. What he will give you is an amazing glove at all 3 positions, good speed on the base paths, and a lot of heart. The dude gives 110% every time he’s out there, and I think he’s a good veteran presence to have alongside Buxton for Larnach and Kiriloff.

 

I think the same can be said about Billy Hamilton.  Maybe not the greatest offensive numbers, but he always seemed to bring it against the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

Kepler isn't a good CFer.  That shouldn't be plan A if Buxton is hurt.  Mixed and matched for some games?  Sure.  Every day?  No.

[Minny505]

A one year deal for any of the FA CF options is reasonable. I really like the Altherr suggestion by @Heistyman.

Celestino and/or Martin are likely the long-term answer here and both are likely to be ready before the end of the 2022 season.

Gordon is prefectly adequate placeholder to start 2022 though if payroll can be better allocated. With the way the Twins approached FA before the lockout, there is no reason to believe 2022 will be a competitive year, but rather building year. A placeholder like Gordon is ideal in that scenario as contract-committed veteran-mediocrity can lead to poor decision making regarding playing time for (potential) rookies. Gordon can be more easily marginalized or cut loose.

[Kipp35]

On 1/6/2022 at 9:21 PM, Linus said:

Well we have needed a legit back up center fielder (preferably a right handed hitter) for about 5 years and it hasn’t happened. So I have no anticipation that it is going to happen now. 

Can't agree more! I have numerous posts on this site stating that I was not and am not in favor of the deal given to Buxton. But, with the deal done, we absolutely need to find a backup. But the "backup" will need to be someone who can effortlessly play the spot, and do so for approximately 100 games per season. With those numbers, it's not a backup we are looking for, as that is Buxton's role. We need a starter that will be happy to sit on the bench for the 40-70 games per season Buxton is actually healthy.

If you want true "insurance" as the article calls for; the team had better call Lloyd's of London. I hear they are pretty good insuring delicate, high priced items.