I'm not panicked ... yet ... but I do grow increasingly cynical about things. Owners won't budge, players won't budge, there have been NO talks of any kind, which, in a labor stoppage isn't unusual until the very critical, last moments. However, I think the owner's path to baseball is sure ruination of the sport; the players don't do themselves any favors, but, they aren't the most egregious, imo. So ... what will happen? What are your thoughts.

This post was based on, inspired by, this tweet:

 

 

I have my flight booked for Fort Myers at the end of February. At this point it’s wishcasting. If there’s no baseball, I guess we’ll go to the beach or drive up to Disney… by the end of February I’ll desperately need to escape the cold anyways.

I am trying to become pessimistic to protect my feelings. If I lower my expectations, maybe it won’t hurt so bad when baseball breaks my heart again.

 

Question for those who might know: Will the minor leagues play? If so, what determines which players are locked out and which would play, 40-man roster status?

I'm assuming that the greedy rich guys on both sides will keep the major leagues off the field for at least a few months.

4 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Question for those who might know: Will the minor leagues play? If so, what determines which players are locked out and which would play, 40-man roster status?

I'm assuming that the greedy rich guys on both sides will keep the major leagues off the field for at least a few months.

My understanding is you are correct, the 40 man roster is impacted by the lockout. Non-40 man minor leaguers can still play. Typically minor league spring training overlaps major league by a week or two. non-40 man no ST Invite minor leaguers don’t show up until late in March.
 

I wonder if Lee county complex might have some minor league training happen early?

I'm going with half a season because that's how the usual negotiation strategies/errors/dumbness, whatever, play out. As an experienced contract negotiator my goal was to always hold the other side (I've worked for both sides) down to what they want. The first few rounds of negotiations will be "pie-in-the-sky" talks; each side will try to get everything they can imagine into the talks whether or not they really want each "improvement" they're asking for. That will take a couple of weeks. The secondary rounds will evolve into demeaning the other sides' "unreasonable" position. That will also take several weeks, maybe a month, as each side will leak stuff about the other side in an attempt to win the public relations battle. That will add another 2-4 weeks in order to do a little polling to see how their story is playing out in the press. Then both sides will want to break off talks, "officially" in order to cool down but in reality to tamp down the hard-liners on each side who are still insisting on shooting for the moon. That's the third step. We'll know when they reach the fourth step, actually negotiating, when each side names a few key members that will be taking the lead in the talks. Plenty of stories will surface in the press how these guys are secretly very good friends and actually play golf together, have lots of respect for each other, hell, even had picnics at each other's homes over the past few years and how they all love baseball, apple pie and America.

These heretofore unknown "good friends" will hammer out a deal over a couple of Bud Lights, a steak at Mannie's and a massage. But then they have to take the deal back to the rest of the owners and players for approval. That means they have to give the hard-liners time to display their "toughness" and vent their nonsensical objections while the reasonable guys have to sit and pretend to listen to them while they cut their fingernails and nod wisely.

Another week or two of that and then each side will finally get around to a vote. If both sides are ready to admit they're losing money without an agreement and if they're taking hits in the press and from their season ticket holders they'll vote to approve.

Upshot: two months from the date they announce their first official meeting they will approve the new contract, both sides claiming they gave up the most in order to save baseball, apple pie and America and those were the only reasons that guided their decision to concede to an unfair contract.  Oh, and season tickets and your favorite player's jersey are now available, but at a higher price than last season. Hot dogs and beer? Well, they'll have to go up, too. You know, only because of the coronavirus.

So watch for that first public announcement and set your calendar accordingly.

52 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I'm not panicked ... yet ... but I do grow increasingly cynical about things. Owners won't budge, players won't budge, there have been NO talks of any kind, which, in a labor stoppage isn't unusual until the very critical, last moments. However, I think the owner's path to baseball is sure ruination of the sport; the players don't do themselves any favors, but, they aren't the most egregious, imo. So ... what will happen? What are your thoughts.

This post was based on, inspired by, this tweet:

 

 

I read the same article this morning, and find it interesting that you place more blame on the owners.  The article mentioned that the players wouldn't even clarify the relative importance of their issues (hence why the Dec 1 meeting lasted all of 7 minutes); how can you negotiate with someone when they maintain an all-or-nothing stance, which by definition, means they won't negotiate?  It seems most likely the blame is equally shared between the two, with perhaps slightly more fault lying with the players.

49 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I read the same article this morning, and find it interesting that you place more blame on the owners.  The article mentioned that the players wouldn't even clarify the relative importance of their issues (hence why the Dec 1 meeting lasted all of 7 minutes); how can you negotiate with someone when they maintain an all-or-nothing stance, which by definition, means they won't negotiate?  It seems most likely the blame is equally shared between the two, with perhaps slightly more fault lying with the players.

Let me clarify ... I said that both sides won't budge. But it's the owners who called the lockout/work stoppage, so the stoppage is on them to end. Period. It's the owners who have to lift the work stoppage in order for things to happen; it's up to them to come back to the table first to get the ball rolling. If this were a strike called by the players, then I would put that on them to come back to the table to get the ball rolling. However, I'm not sure how to resolve the issues when neither side seems to want to budge. But, as is very often the case with any kind of stoppage, very often things happen in the midnight hour to resolve things. We aren't in the midnight hour yet. However, I am getting more and more cynical about anything resolving itself.

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

I'm going with half a season because that's how the usual negotiation strategies/errors/dumbness, whatever, play out. As an experienced contract negotiator my goal was to always hold the other side (I've worked for both sides) down to what they want. The first few rounds of negotiations will be "pie-in-the-sky" talks; each side will try to get everything they can imagine into the talks whether or not they really want each "improvement" they're asking for. That will take a couple of weeks. The secondary rounds will evolve into demeaning the other sides' "unreasonable" position. That will also take several weeks, maybe a month, as each side will leak stuff about the other side in an attempt to win the public relations battle. That will add another 2-4 weeks in order to do a little polling to see how their story is playing out in the press. Then both sides will want to break off talks, "officially" in order to cool down but in reality to tamp down the hard-liners on each side who are still insisting on shooting for the moon. That's the third step. We'll know when they reach the fourth step, actually negotiating, when each side names a few key members that will be taking the lead in the talks. Plenty of stories will surface in the press how these guys are secretly very good friends and actually play golf together, have lots of respect for each other, hell, even had picnics at each other's homes over the past few years and how they all love baseball, apple pie and America.

These heretofore unknown "good friends" will hammer out a deal over a couple of Bud Lights, a steak at Mannie's and a massage. But then they have to take the deal back to the rest of the owners and players for approval. That means they have to give the hard-liners time to display their "toughness" and vent their nonsensical objections while the reasonable guys have to sit and pretend to listen to them while they cut their fingernails and nod wisely.

Another week or two of that and then each side will finally get around to a vote. If both sides are ready to admit they're losing money without an agreement and if they're taking hits in the press and from their season ticket holders they'll vote to approve.

Upshot: two months from the date they announce their first official meeting they will approve the new contract, both sides claiming they gave up the most in order to save baseball, apple pie and America and those were the only reasons that guided their decision to concede to an unfair contract.  Oh, and season tickets and your favorite player's jersey are now available, but at a higher price than last season. Hot dogs and beer? Well, they'll have to go up, too. You know, only because of the coronavirus.

So watch for that first public announcement and set your calendar accordingly.

What scale of contracts and for what types of organizations? Specifically, was it organized labor? If organized labor, approximately how many members?

Didn't the first official meeting happen shortly after the lock out?

MLB talks about attracting more fans to the game...if they (owners/players) mess this up forget about it!  I love baseball but I might be done with them all too.  I can enjoy town team ball of which I myself play in.  They better think long and hard about it.  

I have no faith negotiations will be wrapped up to start ST on time. As displayed in 2020, owners only need to have 60 games played to be break even or be profitable. That’s probably what will happen this year too. 

I think the answer to this is somewhere between a late season start and missing half the season.  There will be a brief late ST and then a late start to the season.  If I were to pick a timeline, I'd say a mid-to-late May start to the season.

Once actually money starts getting lost, both sides will be more motivated to negotiate.  It is infuriating that neither side seems all that interested in moving forward.  Each party is just waiting for the other to blink.

I am going with no missed games, probably some missed spring training, but I in no way want to here about Twins pitching prospects for another year and more excuses on another missed season since most have been moved onto the 40 man.

 

We'll have an agreement this month. December was always likely going to be a non-negotiation time. The holiday season meant players, owners and representatives were going to have limited availability, tensions were high meaning a couple weeks off to cool down was warranted. Nobody is getting anything done in the second half of the month as owners and executives do not cancel that time off. Such businesspeople often work insane hours year round and a couple weeks of holiday season is usually the only time they can count on for legitimate time off because so many financial and large corporate offices run skeleton crews all at the same time. 

• Luxury Floor = $100MM, Luxury Ceiling $200MM
• Current Revenue Sharing
• Full Year Service Time = 120 Days.
• 2 Years Arbitration Eligibility (Essentially All Super 2)
• Different Arbitration Formulas
• 6 Years Team Control Still
• No Arbitration Pool
• 18 Second Pitch Clock

Something like that.

 

Everything else in the country now is circling the bowl so why would baseball be an exception? No season.

 

46 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

• Luxury Floor = $100MM, Luxury Ceiling $200MM

 

That's a non-starter unless they remove all penalties except financial penalties for noncompliance.

I think we will see league minimum salary of $800,000, no floor (because it doesn't actually solve any problems) and a 10% increase in the ceiling. ($230M up to $250M by the end of the agreement) We may also see mandatory free agency at age 29.5 regardless of service time with a start date in 2 seasons. That should get them back on the diamond.

There really isn't any urgency to any of this until games start to be missed.  I don't think the players will mind missing spring training.  I will say it does make me nervous that both sides are dug in hard on each side.  The players rep is trying to make a name for himself so I think this drags out because that will be the only way to get concessions from the other side IMO.  This is going to be a big PR game.

I hope there will be changes for the players as the current CBA gives younger players the shaft so to speak.  I hope Baseball starts on time but I doubt it.

1 hour ago, Todd Nelson said:

Everything else in the country now is circling the bowl so why would baseball be an exception? No season.

 

I voted to lose half of the season since Owners will want playoff money.  That said, I have a question...  If the season was not played at all as Todd says, do those players on 1-year contracts and those that have contracts up after 2022 just extend on another year or would they be FA's that we could sign for 2023?

I don't see anything happening until the owners noticing they are actually losing money.  Some owners appear to only be investors in baseball - not really fans of the game, so for them it will be a business decision only.  Makes it hard for the fans who give them income and actually have passion for the products on the field.  Sucks!

10 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If the season was not played at all as Todd says, do those players on 1-year contracts and those that have contracts up after 2022 just extend on another year or would they be FA's that we could sign for 2023?

It depends on the CBA

4 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Let me clarify ... I said that both sides won't budge. But it's the owners who called the lockout/work stoppage, so the stoppage is on them. Period. It's the owners who have to lift the work stoppage in order for things to happen; it's up to them to come back to the table first to get the ball rolling. If this were a strike called by the players, then I would put that on them to come back to the table to get the ball rolling. However, I'm not sure how to resolve the issues when neither side seems to want to budge. But, as is very often the case with any kind of stoppage, very often things happen in the midnight hour to resolve things. We aren't in the midnight hour yet. However, I am getting more and more cynical about anything resolving itself.

The owners called the lockout true, but assuming they did not, would there still have been a season without a new CBA (legitimate question, as I'm not sure how that works.)?  If yes, then sure, it's the owners to own the first move (which in my opinion they did--when the players walked out after 7 minutes because they wouldn't even triage topics, it now falls on the players to restart the conversation, as they're the ones who ended it).  If no, then the owners calling a lockout is just a formality, and they shouldn't have any extra burden.

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The owners called the lockout true, but assuming they did not, would there still have been a season without a new CBA (legitimate question, as I'm not sure how that works.)?  If yes, then sure, it's the owners to own the first move (which in my opinion they did--when the players walked out after 7 minutes because they wouldn't even triage topics, it now falls on the players to restart the conversation, as they're the ones who ended it).  If no, then the owners calling a lockout is just a formality, and they shouldn't have any extra burden.

I just disagree. The owners didn't have to call a lockout, but they did. They'd have a stronger leg to stand on if they didn't because then they could say, 'See? The door's open but the players won't walk through it.' They closed the door and it is up to them to open it. If they do and the players don't walk through, then I sing a different song.

1 hour ago, Dman said:

This is going to be a big PR game.

Labor negotiations often are, until they get down to business. And I've often been told, if neither side is happy but can live with it, then you've probably got a good contract

I voted half season. But the "I'm done with baseball" vote is very tempting, especially if they miss significant time.  I'm sure at some point someone will blink. That's usually how these things work, but there's a pretty high level of animosity right now on the player's side, and there's some legit concerns on the owners side... and neither presents a solution that solves some of baseball's most pressing needs.

For me it's going to depend a lot on what the new CBA will look like. I suspect players and owners can probably come to some agreement. My concern is that the like the other CBAs, the things most needed to be fixed are the things that won't get fixed. There's a massive competitive gap in baseball that doesn't exist elsewhere due to the financials of the sport, and I don't see enough altruistic owners and players (and it's going to require both) to ratify a solution that would do more revenue sharing and limit the earning potentials of the stars.  It is getting really really really hard to follow baseball when ultimately the team you're rooting for has a razor thin margin of error while teams like LA and NY can consistently get away with expensive blunders. 

Likewise, the players union has consistently catered to the bigger names and really left a lot of the little guys out, and they have to fix what effectively amounts to wage control in among minor leaguers where some of the real abuse lies and probably agree to some spending caps. They have legitimate gripes over FA too, and now the front offices are smarter, they aren't making nearly as much on the back end. Something needs to give there, whether that be a raise in minimum salaries for minor leaguers and pre-arb players and/or a much shorter time to FA in order to capitalize. I don't know. Baseball's much different in that unlike other sports such as the NFL or NBA, you're going to be in the minors for a bit. That's a lot of time and earning potential lost compared to the NFL or NBA, not to mention much longer contracts once they make it to the show. 

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am going with no missed games, probably some missed spring training, but I in no way want to here about Twins pitching prospects for another year and more excuses on another missed season since most have been moved onto the 40 man.

 

That's the worst part, those young pitchers again missing valuable time.
Or the worst part is using THAT as an excuse for not developing pitching.
It's one of those.

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The owners called the lockout true, but assuming they did not, would there still have been a season without a new CBA (legitimate question, as I'm not sure how that works.)?  If yes, then sure, it's the owners to own the first move (which in my opinion they did--when the players walked out after 7 minutes because they wouldn't even triage topics, it now falls on the players to restart the conversation, as they're the ones who ended it).  If no, then the owners calling a lockout is just a formality, and they shouldn't have any extra burden.

There is much precedence of having a season without a CBA or with major disagreement about what should be in a current agreement. The season would have occurred status quo.

the owners lockout of the players is to take away leverage from the players.

the players would have most certainly waited to strike until opening day or later, to exert pain on the owners. With the owners locking out the players in December, there is now a deadline to hit.

I belong to season ticket group that voted NOT to use our tickets after May (I was the lone dissenter).  I found other ways to enjoy the COVID summer.   I’m sure I’ll find ways to enjoy next summer too, without going to baseball games - If the season is canceled or limited.   I am not alone.  More casual fans will never return if there are two consecutive seasons of disinterest in baseball.   The players and owners know this.  They will not kill the goose that lays the golden baseball 

As much as I like baseball; how the season goes is not a priory of life.

I will enjoy it as it goes and go about my life if it does not.

8 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I just disagree. The owners didn't have to call a lockout, but they did. They'd have a stronger leg to stand on if they didn't because then they could say, 'See? The door's open but the players won't walk through it.' They closed the door and it is up to them to open it. If they do and the players don't walk through, then I sing a different song.

If the owners invest into all the hundreds in millions of costs associated with getting the 2022 baseball season rolling, they give the players enormous financial leverage and the owners would be operating under the looming and real threat of a strike at any time.

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's a non-starter unless they remove all penalties except financial penalties for noncompliance....

RE: $100MM floor / $200MM ceiling for luxury tax

I don't think the players have much leverage here. The owners want the floor and need the revenue sharing from the lower ceiling to fund the floor. While I don't think owners would be opposed to changing the penalty structure somewhat, it's already fair with teams cross the threshhold with frequency and a floor with penalties makes it more than fair. Though whether or not something is perceived as fair by me makes little difference in the negotiations.

8 hours ago, RpR said:

As much as I like baseball; how the season goes is not a priory of life.

I will enjoy it as it goes and go about my life if it does not.

I’m pretty much the same. To me it’s just a game. But if this does go on, there are many who would be affected by this lockout. I don’t really care about the owners’, players’ or executives’ financial well being, I do care about everyone else who rely on their incomes from baseball, even seasonal workers