New Years Resolutions: The Lineup

[Ted Schwerzler]

After getting through the starting rotation and the bullpen, it’s finally time to look at the Minnesota Twins lineup. They were the reason for heightened expectations in 2021, and at the beginning, the reason for a slow start. How can the holdovers turn the tide in 2022?

It was all but expected that the Twins would address their pitching in the offseason. New rotation arms were needed, and the group as a whole flopped. However, when you fall as far as Minnesota did, it isn’t a one-faceted issue. The offense ranked 18th in baseball in terms of fWAR. That’s a drop from 9th in 2020 and 4th when the Bomba Squad exploded in 2019.
 
The good news is that much of that contingent is still present. Here’s how some of them can right the ship:
 
Miguel Sano

Posting just a .778 OPS last season, Sano did improve on his 2020, but that still leaves plenty to be desired after owning a .923 OPS in 2019. You’re going to get a boatload of strikeouts from Miguel, but the power is also going to play. His problem isn’t chasing, as he does have good plate discipline. When the bat meets the ball, it’s also done with some of the best hard-hit rates in the game. Sano’s issue has been timing and velocity, something that’s pretty substantial to overcome. He did post an .817 OPS after May and an .824 OPS after July. Both of those numbers will play, and for a guy in the final year of his contract, putting up in a big way would be nice to see.
 
Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach

These two are linked in that Kepler’s situation somewhat determines Larnach’s. Max put up an .855 OPS in 2019 and has otherwise underwhelmed at the plate. He consistently does less with what looks like more ability, and the defensive acumen is what saves his value. Maybe he’s traded at some point, but if he’s playing for Minnesota, some sort of higher production at the dish needs to happen. Elevate the baseball and let the contact prowess do the work. For Larnach, it’s about adjustments and settling in during year two. He played 79 games and tallied an 88 OPS+. There were moments where it looked like it may click, but then things never got right after going back to Triple-A. The former first-round pick has always looked like a good bet to hit, and this being the year it starts would be welcomed.
 
Alex Kirilloff

After debuting during a Postseason game in 2020, Alex Kirilloff made his official MLB debut in 2021. While dealing with nagging wrist issues again, he played in just 59 games for the Twins and owned a .722 OPS. The power production seemed sapped, which would be a disappointment in the long term. Kirilloff can focus on establishing himself as a regular for the year ahead. He can be a lineup mainstay with the bat, whether mixing in next to Byron Buxton or playing first base. Getting confidence going with a strong start and parlaying it into consistent success could have him quickly looking like a true star.
 
Ryan Jeffers

Last season, Rocco Baldelli was expected to have one of the best catching tandems in baseball. Mitch Garver was once again a beast at the plate but dealt with injuries that kept him out of the lineup. Jeffers was expected to be a bat-only prospect and has turned himself into a defensive stalwart, but the bat wasn’t there in 2020. The 119 OPS+ from 2020 dropped to just 83 last season. Catchers don’t necessarily need to hit, but Minnesota would benefit from Jeffers being an asset at the plate and behind it. He’s too good to repeat the 2021 performance, and finding a nice middle ground would lengthen the lineup.

Jose Miranda

There’s very little Miranda could do to put up better numbers than he did in the minors during 2021. Expecting him to come in as a rookie and blast 30 dingers simply isn’t going to happen. What is necessary here is that the young prospect takes it all in stride. Miranda can spell Josh Donaldson at third base and play second and first. He should be expected to hit after the showing a season ago, but tempered expectations and a learning period can’t allow for the confidence to waver. Unprotected going into the Rule 5 draft last season, this looks like found money, and guiding it for the best opportunity to cash in is a must.
 
That’s a group of 15 or so players we’ve now looked at that can focus in an area or two with an eye on pushing the Twins upward in 2022. Now, we just need the sport to return and get going.

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[Doctor Gast]

I see you left out the main core which will produce when healthy. I believe Polanco should be healthy the whole season. The ones that you mentioned are the ones we have some doubt yet.

I really liked Sano's swing at the end of the season. He wasn't trying to over-swing, just a  nice easy swing. Hope he continues that swing through his career, he could be awesome. 

We'll have to see if Miranda's new found success in AAA will translate well and maintain it in the MLB. We all know that Kiriloff has the potential to become a great hitter he just needs time in the MLB and stay healthy. Larnauch was rushed too soon into the MLB which set him back a little, still I really like him as a hitter.

Although Jeffers isn't in the same class as those above but once he better figures out MLB pitching, he'll be pretty good hitting catcher. That leaves Kepler. To me he has the biggest doubt. I love his glove and has a pretty good eye but he has trouble adapting to the dead ball Even with him pulling the ball he can't hit that many HRs, that translate into outs. If he can't adapt, we should trade him. A place like CO, where he could translate those outs back into HRs and we can sell him thus for Marquez.

On paper we look pretty good.

[Trov]

Who will be back up CF when Buxton goes on IL?  We know he will miss half the season so we better have a plan for that.  I think that really needs to be addressed.  Expecting Buck to play a full season is the definition of insanity.  I do not care how much you pay him, you need to plan for his days in the trainer room and rehabbing down in FL or in St. Paul. 

[tony&rodney]

33 minutes ago, Trov said:

Who will be back up CF when Buxton goes on IL?  We know he will miss half the season so we better have a plan for that.  I think that really needs to be addressed.  Expecting Buck to play a full season is the definition of insanity.  I do not care how much you pay him, you need to plan for his days in the trainer room and rehabbing down in FL or in St. Paul. 

Two inexperienced players who are candidates for 4th outfielder could spell Byron in the dozen games he misses next season: Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino. Buxton is the least of the worries for next season.

[roger]

Interesting how the headline is about the Twins lineup, yet their best overall hitter and guy with the highest average don't get a mention...Polanco and Arraez.

Assume a couple of these guys will perform better than last year and couple about the same and a couple will disappoint.  Not a clue who will do what.  The good news is that the lineup should be strong.  Its those guys throwing off the mound that will decide what type of year it is. 

[rv78]

I would have to disagree with you about Sano. One of his biggest problems is that he chases pitches off the plate, especially when he has 2 strikes. I have said it many times on this site..... the 2 biggest holes in the lineup are Kepler and Sano and this team won't take the next step forward until they either figure out what they are doing wrong and correct it or are replaced with better hitters. I will go out on a limb and say it will be the latter.

[mikelink45]

The headline had me looking for a 1 - 9 lineup - the ideal positions for the bats we have.  How they project and where the biggest holes are.  This should have been the lineups question marks. 

[Game7-91]

Thanks Ted and TD staff for continuing to put up interesting content. Your hard work is appreciated.

So many questions for 2022, where to start? Ted looking at Sano is interesting..forgot he's in a contract year. No wonder saw photo of him working the weights....I would bet on him having good #s this year, but would not want to commit long term $$, just do not trust him to sustain high level of commitment. Agree with rv78 on this, longer term answer needed beyond Sano. Kiriloff at 1b if he stays healthy, but DH? JD could rotate, maybe DH is just rotating guys in and out for off-days from the field, for this year. 

[jud6312]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Two inexperienced players who are candidates for 4th outfielder could spell Byron in the dozen games he misses next season: Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino. Buxton is the least of the worries for next season.

The dozen games he misses? That's a good one.

[TopGunn#22]

To me, the keys are Sano and Kepler and I think rv78 hit the nail on the head with them being the two biggest holes in our lineup.  For the last two seasons, we've looked at the Twins lineup and and expected 2019 production out of Sano and Kepler and we just haven't gotten it.  I see us being done with Sano after 2022.  Kepler gives you the great defense, but unless the shift has "limitations" placed on it with rule changes after a CBA is reached I don't think max is capable of adapting to playing against extreme shifts.  I'd like to be more optimistic, but with these two guys and what we've seen these past two seasons, I just think 2019 is a distant memory.  I keep trading Larnach for desperately needed starting pitching.  If we traded Kepler instead, Larnach is in RF.  If we trade Larnach and keep Kepler, we would need a new RF once Kepler's contract is done.  If Martin is playing LF (which I think he will be) then that leaves Lewis or someone else in RF.  Look, an OF of Martin, Buxton and Lewis would be outstanding if everyone hit.

Here's the trade for Marquez with Colorado if it were to come to pass.  It's expensive and I think Montas and Sixto Sanchez are better, more affordable targets.

Twins Get:  Marquez SP 58.7 and Tovar 2B  6.00  Total:  64.7  (I know NOTHING about Tovar other than he's a 2B and a Twin named TOVAR would be outstanding) !!  Rockies Get:  Arraez  27.9   Kepler  23.6 and Winder 13.1  Total:  64.6.  If I'm giving up this much, I'd rather just get Montas AND Bassitt (total value 58.0) and a little something more from Oakland.  Marquez is good, but he's not a better acquisition than Montas AND Bassitt.   In fact, I prefer Montas to Marquez.

[Samuel Erwin]

In this Lineup, Jose iglesias would be a great Shortstop. He is such a great fielder along with his bat, posting a career 277. Batting average. The one draw back is no power, but that is why we have Sano and Larnach and even polanco and Buxton. He would be a great option for just a year or two he doesn't have a lot of sutors so he could be a pretty easy pick up. We do not need a big pickup at short such as Story or Correa. We have two very highly rated shortstops that are within a couple years of coming up so iglesias would be a great option for now.

[Samuel Erwin]

With Gordon as the Backup CF we would be set.