The Twins Probably Need an Outfielder. What's Available?

[Nick Nelson]

One year ago, the Twins were so flush with outfield depth that they were comfortable non-tendering Eddie Rosario, leaving Akil Baddoo unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, and trading LaMonte Wade Jr. for a reliever project.

Today they find themselves so thin on outfielders that acquiring a new one — perhaps even a significantly impactful one — could be a sneaky high priority once the lockout ends.

This rapid erosion of outfield depth has been driven in part by the aforementioned moves, which mostly worked out very poorly. But there are other factors at play, too:

• It became clear during his rookie year that Alex Kirilloff is better suited at first base than outfield, and that the team prefers him there. 
• A rocky debut for Trevor Larnach casts doubt on his ability to step in as a regular, at least in the immediate future.
• Jake Cave obliterated all confidence by following up a bad season with an awful one. 
• The Twins evidently prefer not to use utilityman Luis Arraez in the outfield.
• Max Kepler is one of the most logical trade chips this offseason for a front office that desperately needs to add quality pitching.

Locking up Byron Buxton long-term certainly helps to counter this trend, but as we all know, solid contingency plans behind Buxton are more necessity than luxury. It seems safe to say the Twins need to add at least a very solid fourth outfielder, if not an impact starter in one of the corners, ahead of 2022.

Two pieces of good news on this front: 1) The outfield free agent market is not nearly as picked over as the starting pitching and shortstop markets; 2) Due to their lack of action on the SP/SS markets, the Twins still have considerable spending flexibility. 

If they're looking for a productive way to channel those available funds, targeting a high-end outfielder could make sense. It would represent a pivot similar to the one we saw two offseasons ago when they missed out on Zack Wheeler and signed Josh Donaldson.

Here are 10 remaining free agent outfielders who the Twins could set their sights on when baseball activity resumes, listed roughly in order of the most ambitious to the least.

10 Free Agent Outfielders that Could Interest the Twins

1. Kris Bryant (30)

Dreaming big here. MLB Trade Rumors ranked him as the fourth-best free agent overall and predicted a six-year, $160 million contract for the former MVP and five-time All-Star. It ain't gonna happen. But man, would it be fun to drop him into the middle of this lineup for the next half-decade.

2. Nick Castellanos (30)

Coming off his best season in the majors, Castellanos is arguably the best pure bat in free agency. Over the past five seasons he's slashing .286/.339/.518 with 124 home runs and 397 RBIs, and he launched 34 homers for the Reds in 2021. He'll get a lesser deal than Bryant, but is still looking at $20+ million annually over several years. The lack of defensive value – he can only play right field, and not very well – is a major ding to his appeal. Signing him would also cost a draft pick since he declined a qualifying offer.

3. Seiya Suzuki (27)

One of the foremost stars in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league, Suzuki was posted earlier this offseason by the Hiroshima Carp and is ready to make a move stateside. Easily the youngest player on this list, Suzuki is a good right-handed hitter seemingly entering his prime. Last year in NPB he slashed .317/.433/.639 with 38 homers in 132 games, and he's considered a fairly strong defender in right field. Cody Christie wrote last month about the merits of signing Suzuki, who's projected by MLBTR to land a five-year, $55 million deal. He has reportedly drawn strong interest from some East Coast heavy hitters.

4. Michael Conforto (29)

An intriguing case. I was a little surprised to see Conforto turn down a qualifying offer from the Mets, because he's coming off a pretty underwhelming season (.729 OPS, 0.8 fWAR) and doesn't seem primed to land a mega-deal at this moment. His depressed stock along with the attached draft pick compensation could make free agency challenging for Conforto, who posted a 134 OPS+ in the four seasons prior to 2021. For a team that likes him, the cost in dollars should be relatively reasonable, and a shorter-term duration may be available. Conforto primarily plays right field these days but has plenty of experience in left and even in center.

5. Corey Dickerson (33)

I had the Twins signing Dickerson in my offseason blueprint because it just feels like a thing. He's in a buy-low position coming off a couple of mediocre seasons, and has ties to the Baldelli-era Rays. Even with his diminished production in 2020-21 (.266/.321/.406), Dickerson's been more decent than bad, and he has an .815 career OPS. In 2019 he slashed .304/.341/.565 between Pittsburgh and Philly. A lefty swinger, Dickerson is generally a left fielder, but gained some experience in center and right last year. 

6. Kevin Pillar (33)

If the Twins choose to lower their sights from impact starter to fourth outfielder, Pillar would be a logical fit. He's a natural center fielder but made 20+ starts in all three outfield spots for the Mets last year. He's a veteran with more than 1,000 games worth of MLB experience. He's a righty swinger who hits better against lefties, so he'd fit well into an outfield mix that includes Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach. Aging into his mid-30s, Pillar is not the defensive wiz he once was and he's a reliably below-average hitter, so this wouldn't be the most inspiring move but it'd make sense.

7. Odúbel Herrera (30)

Herrera falls into a similar category as Pillar: not really a full-time starter, but a player you could comfortably expect to get 100+ games out of in a part-time role. He's a good defender who can handle all three spots but mainly plays center. Like Pillar, Herrera isn't a great hitter but he's a respectable one.

8. Joc Pederson (30)

He was a key factor on some very good Dodgers teams in the not-so-distant past, but Pederson's performance has dropped off over the past couple years, yielding just a 0.5 fWAR in 180 games. He's young enough that the possibility of tapping back into that previous level still exists, which makes him a somewhat interesting target, but he's so redundant with Kepler that it's tough to envision a fit unless the latter is traded.

9. Eddie Rosario (30)

Look I'm not recommending this but it's certainly on the table as a possibility. One year after leaving the Twins as a non-tender, Rosario is back in free agency. He's coming off his worst season overall but rejuvenated his market somewhat with a sensational run in the late season and playoffs, thriving on the big stage in Atlanta. He should still be available on a cheapish short-term deal, and there's still plenty of love for Eddie in Minnesota. If the Twins move Kirilloff to first full-time, I could see Rosario brought in as a plug to let Larnach and others develop while sparking some enthusiasm for casual fans in what increasingly appears to be a rebuilding year.

10. Jake Marisnick (31)

The former top prospect simply never developed any offensive game, with the exception a great 2017 in Houston (draw your own conclusions), but he's stuck around because of his speed and great glove. He's pretty much a pure bench guy at this point but would be well suited for that role and a clear upgrade over Cave.

Do any of these names appeal to you? Are there others on your radar? How aggressive should the Twins be in their pursuit of an outfielder this offseason? Share your thoughts in the comments.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Order the Offseason Handbook
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

View full article

[blindeke]

Counterpoint: No they don't.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Eddie, Eddie, Eddie !

[baul0010]

We better hope Larnach is ready!  Looking at that list, I can see why starters and shortstops were picked over.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm of the opinion they let it ride with Kirilloff with Larnach behind him in case of failure.

If they acquire an OF, it needs to be a defensive-minded CF to back up Buxton.

[Jack Dupp]

Larnach is not ready. Kris Bryant would be the dream choice, but I know it’ll be Kyle Garlick 2.0

[Kal Lis]

I hope they focus on starters, a shortstop, and relievers before even thinking about an outfielder.

The Bundy signing is not focusing on starters.

[roger]

Tar Heel beat me to it.  Eddie-Eddie-Eddie.  
 

And let’s keep AK ar first.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, blindeke said:

Counterpoint: No they don't.

You're comfortable with Gordon and Cave as the top OF backups? Aight. 

Personally I think they should (and will) trade Kepler. In which case they definitely do need an OF. 

[mikelink45]

This is a nice winter discussion, but I cannot help but feel that it is not worth a lot of thought.  Larnach, Kepler, Buxton, Celestino is fine.  The best option was LaMonte Wade, but we whiffed on that.  They might even put Miranda out there. 

[Nick Nelson]

36 minutes ago, Kal Lis said:

I hope they focus on starters, a shortstop, and relievers before even thinking about an outfielder.

The Bundy signing is not focusing on starters.

The problem is that basically all the top free agent starters and shortstops have signed already. Meanwhile the Twins are still almost 50M short of their 2021 budget. How are they going to spend that money? Throwing it at free agent relievers would be very ill-advised, IMO. 

[Physics Guy]

46 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The problem is that basically all the top free agent starters and shortstops have signed already. Meanwhile the Twins are still almost 50M short of their 2021 budget. How are they going to spend that money? Throwing it at free agent relievers would be very ill-advised, IMO. 

Carlos Correa and Trevor Story beg to differ.

[Old fox]

What about Martin in left as he has more potential than Larnach. Kirilloff in left and put Donaldson at 1b, move San’o to DH., & try Miranda at 3b. 

[Eris]

Rooker in left?  It is one of the challenges faced when the team drafts a bunch of bat first outfielders whose best long term position might be DH. 
 

I would not be signing any of these free agents as we have a number of positionless players (Arraez, Gordon, Rooker, Larnach, Sano?) who will need to play somewhere. 
 

Agree with Old Fox that Martin might be the best internal option. 

[wsnydes]

I can see them adding OF depth, but I don't see them adding starting quality.  I'd like to see them do it, but that list doesn't really excite me after the first two or three.  

Plus, I'd rather they do something rather than just sit out free agency all together.

[old nurse]

A club depends on a steady stream of new talent coming up. Despite a rocky 2021 that talent is Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker and Celeatino.  You could even add Contrera, Martin and late in the season Lewis to that mix.  Utility players like Gordon and Arraez can be the 4th, Outfielders or 1B is well covered. A steady starter, an interim SS, shutdown relievers ate more pressing needs short term. The trade of am OF for a starter shifts the paradigm, but that is no certainty of happening. 

[mike8791]

Just can't get on "we need to sign an OF" bandwagon.  Celestino seems ready as backup, at least based on his finish at AAA.  Don't think this FO will trade Kepler because: 1.) they are too risk averse; 2.) his value has dropped considerably; and 3.) they have more valuable trade candidates who they can better afford to lose,e.g., Arraez, Jeffers or Garver, pitching prospects, middle IF prospects.  There is no excuse for them not to acquire a strong #2 starter with this package.  

As for LF, they will likely look at combo of Larnach, Rooker(Ugh!!), or some low cost castoff.  As others have noted, if they have $50MM to spend, they must go hard after Rodon, find an interim or better SS, and yes, fill some holes in the vBP with at least one potential stopper.  Just not enough room in budget for a FA OF.

[TopGunn#22]

Castellanos appeals to me but he'll be way too expensive.  Solid RH bat that would look great hitting 3rd or 4th in our lineup.  How about taking a flyer at a guy like Nick Senzel ?  He's got a LOT of talent but just hasn't gotten over the hump with the Reds.  Another Red that is interesting to me is Jesse Winker.  He has turned out to be EXACTLY what I hoped Larnach would be.  Winker would make Larnach expendable.  Maybe make a trade with Cincy for Sonny Gray & Winker ?

[miracleb]

It will be Larnach's job to lose in left.    We don't need another outfielder.......

[miracleb]

Wait....I should say outfield is way down the list......on the "needs" list.

[RJA]

I am not sure that spending money just because you have it is ever a good idea, especially if it were spent on an outfielder not named Bryant.  Let's face it, Falvey and Levine lost the office season already by not signing a significant arm.  Really ever other need pales next to the need for starting pitching, so outside of a shortstop, I wouldn't spend money on any other position UNLESS AND UNTIL the front office pulls off some trades for starting pitching.  I would wait to see if that happens, and if it does, spend the money on any holes that are created in the roster (eg. Kepler, Garver or Jeffers, Arraez, etc.) as a result of the trades.  Finally, if the Twins are willing to look at a long term contract for a position player, I would look at Correa or Story as that need is much more pressing that an outfielder.

[Major League Ready]

Kepler is not getting traded for established pitching.  It's possible in combination with other assets but teams willing to trade away establish pitching are going to want high quality prospects.  Kepler has become the new Brian Duensing.

[theBOMisthebomb]

13 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Eddie, Eddie, Eddie !

Darn, why did I give away my Eddie Rosario shirt to charity? 

[Karbo]

11 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The problem is that basically all the top free agent starters and shortstops have signed already. Meanwhile the Twins are still almost 50M short of their 2021 budget. How are they going to spend that money? Throwing it at free agent relievers would be very ill-advised, IMO. 

Unless something in the CBO changes, there is nothing that says they have to spend it.

[Kipp35]

11 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The problem is that basically all the top free agent starters and shortstops have signed already. Meanwhile the Twins are still almost 50M short of their 2021 budget. How are they going to spend that money? Throwing it at free agent relievers would be very ill-advised, IMO. 

You're making a statement assuming that they even care to spend what they did in 2021. Maybe they decide to roll on the cheep this year and make a bigger splash next year... oh wait, neverminded this is the Twins we are talking about.

But, do see them only spending what the CBA dictates that minimally spend.

[Kipp35]

If the Twins are serious about anything, they could look at brining in Suzuki on an extended contract and Pederson on a short deal. Lower risk and you would have depth to evaluate: Martin, Celestino, Wallner and if the mood hits them, Urbina, if he hits better. He is very young (19) but he is FAST, plays CF and showing tremendous progress for his little professional experience! Often, those international players are a bit more advanced than our homegrown ones.

But another player not mentioned that can play, at least the corner OF, is Trevor Story. Still a lot of money, but would be for a guy that could step in just about anywhere and be solid in the field and have production at the plate. we could be looking at filling a corner spot permanently and 100+ games in CF, not to mention that SS is a hole.

[Nick Nelson]

30 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

You're making a statement assuming that they even care to spend what they did in 2021. Maybe they decide to roll on the cheep this year and make a bigger splash next year... oh wait, neverminded this is the Twins we are talking about.

But, do see them only spending what the CBA dictates that minimally spend.

Correct. But the Twins are currently at about $90M in committed payroll for 2022 and they haven't spent less than ~$120M since 2017, the first year this front office took over. So I'm going to hope/assume they're looking to take advantage of their flexibility and improve the roster. The idea here is to explore some different ways they could do so.

[Seansy]

Assuming the Twins keep Kepler I would be fine rolling with Rooker in LF until either Larnach supplants him or he seizes the job for the year.

I also wouldn't be opposed to a 1 year stop gap signing to start Rooker at AAA as depth. Could be a trade chip if the player they sign plays well and the team underwhelms again.

[Sousy]

I certainly don't think OF depth is the biggest issue the roster faces in the offseason.  Just off the top of my head, people the org has that have been at least playing some outfield at AA/AAA/MLB:

• Larnach (hope the offseason has him working on breaking balls)
• Kirilloff (seems to be a good fit at 1B, too - but will probably be platooning there with Sano)
• Rooker (not at great defensive OF, needs some hitting work)
• Celestino (called up from AA unexpectedly, gained a lot of useful experience and grew in AAA)
• Miranda (IIRC, the Saints had him trying some OF - might be a slot there given where corner infield depth is as well)
• Martin (been playing some CF in AA this year since being acquired.)
• Cave (ahem)

Those are at least the guys I can name off the top of my head that should be immediately available if needed - and there is not (as of yet) a starting LF penciled in to the MLB lineup if Buxton / Kepler are locks for CF/RF.

[chpettit19]

It would be interesting to see how these boards (and Twins fans in general) react to Bryant during his Twins career were they to sign him. He's obviously younger than Donaldson was when he signed, but he's pretty much the same type of hitter and injury risk. Over Bryant's career (age 23-29 seasons) he has played 893 games (I added 9 games to his rookie season to 160 games cuz of the service time manipulation). Donaldson (age 29-35 seasons) has played 796 games. So in that time Donaldson has averaged 1 extra IL trip a season for the part of his career Bryant is just about to get paid for (ages 29-35). The main difference was really 2018 when Donaldson missed 100 games.

During the 2015 through 2021 seasons (Bryant's career) Bryant had a 132 OPS+. Donaldson had a 140. Bryant had 28.7 WAR. Donaldson had 29. In 2021 Bryant had a 124 OPS+. Donaldson had a 127.

Not saying I wouldn't sign him, but fans here, and those I talk to in the real world, have had a ton of complaints about Donaldson always being hurt (he played 10 fewer games than Bryant last year) and not being worth that contract. Bryant is going to get paid a similar amount and he hasn't even produced as well as Donaldson has during his career despite Donaldson being 6 years older than him. Not every fan has complained about Donaldson, but there have been plenty. Bryant would be an interesting signing.