The Twins NEED a Shortstop

[yeahyabetcha]

I vote no to Story or to moving Polanco back.  I prefer trading Sano, Arraez for pitching.  I am ok with an infield of Kiriloff, Polanco, glove first SS free agent and Donaldson.  Gordon and Miranda as backups.

[MABB1959]

This may be the dumbest question ever but why can't they use their 1st round draft pick(s) from 2014, 2017 or 2019?  Seems silly to waste 3 first round draft picks and not have them ready by 2022.  From what I can tell if they do not get a couple of great pitchers it really isn't going to matter anyway.

[GoMNTwins]

I think signing Trevor Story is the only reasonable pivot after sleeping through the SP market frenzy. They need someone with a good glove to protect this rotation, which currently stands at 1 reclamation project and 2 rookies. They provide better protection for this rotation by scoring more runs, too. Story is the only FA option left that provides both. 

We can wait on players like Lewis or Martin, or even take a chance on Gordon. These are unknown commodities and are not ML ready on opening day. We don't know know when they will be ready, especially since one is returning from a significant injury. There's a decent chance that none of the in-house options will ever play SS at the ML level 

Hoping to get Maeda back mid-season is not a strategy. Crossing fingers on lottery ticket SP options is also not a strategy, that's what you do when the question is about depth beyond your starters.  This FO went into the off-season with a lot of money to spend, obvious needs, and very clear options to fill those needs without spending prospect capital. What they have after the dust is mostly settled is Baseball Blake Bortles and a whole bunch of "but maybe if..." scenarios.

They forced themselves into a situation where Story is the new obvious need. I'm sure they'll offer him 3 years for $45M and act like that was actually going to do it. Then we can hear Falvey recite the word salad non-answer response he always gives. Or better yet, he'll tell us that they made offers and no one wants to come here... and act as if the organization he helms not being attractive to free agents is not his problem. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

And that SP staff is somewhat iffy from top to bottom; all of them have the ability to succeed, but most have not proven they can consistently. 

The roster was done to show a couple of givens: 1) any budget to $120 M makes the Twins a possible contender; 2) Story fits on that budget; 3) there is room to add three pitchers in trades; and 4) to question whether the actual budget is really going to be near $95-105 M.

I purposely left the pitching roster unfilled (names were inserted as minimum salaries) because it shows that a contending team can add three pitchers and what a team (with rookies only starting pitching) looking to win 70-75 games would look like.

There are a number of very skeptical, pessimistic, sarcastic, and negative Twins fans who mock attempts by those who believe the team can be competitive in 2022. I don't know, perhaps it is time to end all discussions about the Twins and the potential 2022 rosters. MLB is locked out and I get those who want to lock out baseball, but lifetime fans keep dragging their hopes along.

[mnfireman]

After stating that there will be no rebuild, a $95MM - $105MM roster would be a slap in the face to the fanbase, who would then find something other to do than fill Target Field.

[Paul Pleiss]

Would have loved to see the Twins do the Baez deal that landed him in Detroit. Story could be a good candidate to bring in, but I don't like his upside towards the end of whatever contract it would take to bring him to MN. 

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is it possible the most upside in wins is Polanco at SS, Arraez at 2B and spend all available budget as a result on pitching?

This may be possible but what free agent pitchers are we targeting that will take up the budget? What is your budget? $90 M? $100 M? .... $150 M? It makes a difference whether you plan to spend $90 or $150 M or any point in between. I believe enough examples have shown that Story and three good pitchers via trade will fit within a budget of near $120 M. No trades or Story make sense at a budget of $90 M. There are not pitchers available as free agents to spend money on at this time other than a risky deal for Rodon which seems completely unlikely when the Twins were not interested in any of the other free agent pitchers in that price range. Of course, never say never. The argument against Story no longer involves money unless the Twins have already maxed out their budget.

[ashbury]

29 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

find something other to do then fill Target Field.

A nice picnic breakfast at Loring Park followed by a leisurely stroll to the ballpark to watch the afternoon's game?

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

A nice picnic breakfast at Loring Park followed by a leisurely stroll to the ballpark to watch the afternoon's game?

LOL! Nice catch, changed it....

[arby58]

Give Gordon a shot at SS. I'd much rather have him there with another season with Simmons. IF we think Lewis/Martin are a year away, spend your money elsewhere (like starting pitching). 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

spend your money elsewhere (like starting pitching). 

What money? Who would you suggest be signed? What do you believe the budget should be?

[jorgenswest]

The Story deal isn’t a one year deal and the challenge of adding pitching will continue into next year with a major portion of the budget devoted to three bats. In a few years does Story need to move off of SS? Can we expect his decline to drop from his road OPS? How much do we want to pay for the that decline in the back end of that deal? Would those dollars be better spent elsewhere? I can’t look at this deal and only think about the 2022 budget and team,

[stringer bell]

Given the way Gordon and, to a lesser extent, Martin have been handled, it seems that the only internal candidate to be a regular shortstop for the Twins is Lewis. Royce has a long ways to go to prove he can a)hit major league pitching and b)handle regular shortstop duties. He certainly can't be counted on to start the season as the Twins' shortstop and I think it would be foolish to bet the farm that Lewis will contribute at all this year as a shortstop.

The Twins need someone to step in next year and, in my estimation that guy will not come from the system. If the Twins want to spend big bucks on a Trevor Story, I think it is nearly certain they will not bring in any more than one starting pitcher after the lockout is over, and the most likely is Michael Pineda. 

I think an acquisition of a Freddy Galvis or Jonathan Villar might be prudent, offering a decent player who can be signed for a year or two and able to move into a utility role if an internal option steps up. 

IMHO, the Twins chances of contending next year are a long shot, but not impossible. They would need to hit on just about every choice they make and have some surprises. They need to at least patch the shortstop hole and add starting pitchers to even have hope and it might be true that hope is what the team is selling this winter.

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, roger said:

I like to stay away from speculating about trading X for Y.  Way beyond my pay grade.  But you do pose an interesting question.  As for an answer?  I don't have a clue who, but expect the Twins will have a player playing shortstop come opening day.

I do have one question that stuck out from your post, at least to me.  Texas signed Seager to a 10-year $325M contract.  Where do they get the revenue for such a move?  Does their new stadium give that much more revenue than say the Twins and other similar non major market teams?

Texas has nor real contracts on the books this offseason I think it was less than 6 million.  Their arbitration class is really low too.  So they have a completely blank slate heading into the offseason.  So paying 2 players 50 million doesnt create problems yet.

[Brandon]

In planning SS for next season I see our first starting pitcher signed in FA is a fly ball pitcher.  So we target a  more fly ball pitchers and.... Anyone can fill in at SS.  Maybe a platoon of Gordon and Polanco until we can call up Lewis or Martin......

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If the Twins want to spend big bucks on a Trevor Story, I think it is nearly certain they will not bring in any more than one starting pitcher after the lockout is over, and the most likely is Michael Pineda. 

Why not? Do you think the budget will be near $110 M? Read the comments by TopGun#22.

You are correct if the budget is $90-110 M. A lower budget throws nearly every move suggested and discussed on Twins Daily away. Falvey specifically stated that the Twins would be competitive next season. A budget from $90- 100 M will not put a competitive team on the field. I would use "competitive" to mean 80 or more wins in a season. Naturally, there could be other limits used for the term. Again, many on TD want a few years of letting prospects learn on the job, so there are differences of opinion about a direction forward (1-5 years) for the Twins. There does seem to be an idea that adding pitching via trade of players who have 1-2 years left as only a short term plan, but that is not correct as experienced pitchers allow younger pitchers to mentor them, serve as examples, and release the pressures of being the main pitcher. 

[AceWrigley]

On 12/4/2021 at 2:00 PM, MABB1959 said:

This may be the dumbest question ever but why can't they use their 1st round draft pick(s) from 2014, 2017 or 2019?  Seems silly to waste 3 first round draft picks and not have them ready by 2022.  From what I can tell if they do not get a couple of great pitchers it really isn't going to matter anyway.

2014 - Nick Gordon - picked 5th - 16th in total WAR (Baseball Ref)

2015 - Tyler Jay - picked 6th - Pfffft!

2016 - Alex Kirilloff - picked 15th - 11th in total WAR

2017 - Royce Lewis - picked 1st - nothing so far

2018 - Trevor Larnach - picked 20th - 9th in total WAR

2019 - Keoni Cavaco - picked 13th - only Andrew Vaughn & Alex Manoah have appeared in MLB

2020 - Aaron Sabato - picked 27th - only Garrett Crochet & Reid Detmers have appeared in MLB

2021 - Chase Petty - picked 26th - No one from this draft has appeared in MLB

The total WAR listed above is ranked by players from that year's 1st round draft. Nick Gordon, picked 5th,  has 15 1st round picks from the 2014 draft who have produced more total WAR than he did. Only 64% of those drafted 1st round 2014-2018 have a positive WAR.

This is just a small, limited analysis. I'm sure you could develop a Bill James style algorithm to project an estimate career WAR for minor league players and keep or trade accordingly. From quick glance here I'd say that draft picks might serve better as trade capital than not.

[GoMNTwins]

There's a lot of talk about how this team looks in 5 years if we make a move like signing Trevor Story. The offense is better now than it's going to be in 5 years, the window is open now, assuming they can build a rotation. Building a rotation from whole cloth was very doable three weeks ago.

I for one am not interested in being an also-ran for as long as possible, let's win in the regular season, and the playoffs (sounds exciting right?). Let's take the next step now. If we have a declining SS in five years because we were aggressive and put our chips in the pot when we were holding good cards, I'm okay with that. 

This team spent a decade being good enough to be interesting, and folded in the playoffs. The game has changed a bit since then, but one thing hasn't, you can't trot out a #4 starter in Game 1 of the ALDS.

We can debate the potential decline of the players we acquire this year, but next year brings a new set of free agents leaving the team and this conversation continues again, especially if we only figure out SS for one year and our in-house options prove to not pan out at SS. Let's make the moves we need to make to maximize our chances while we have a good lineup. This team will get bad again eventually, and going all in will likely expedite that, but let's try to have something to show for it. I would also argue that if we fill the SS hole via FA rather than a trade we don't give up future prospects.

I don't care about individual decline if we can win a WS. Isn't that the whole point anyway? 

[Aerodeliria]

I was watching a sumo tournament a few years back and there was a tight battle for the lead. One wrestler was demonstrating superior sumo right up until the final days. He then inexplicably tried a 'head pull down.' It failed as it often does because it depends on your opponent's poor balance as the key. He lost the tournament. I never forgot what one 'stable' boss said about the wrestler's attempt at the ill-fated move. 'Bad habits reemerge at the worst times when the pressure is highest.' Enter Polanco at SS. At critical times, he reverts to his bad habits. Why put him are SS? ...a position he is clearly not cut out for. I'd rather go a year with Simmons...

[cHawk]

I do not want a reunion with Simmons.

Iglesias is interesting. His Whiff% and K% has been Top 20 Percentile throughout his career and he has good speed. He is on the wrong side of 30 tho. I would be careful about signing him, although I think it’s an option.

Not interested in Galvis. He seems rather mediocre.

I, like many, do not want Polanco at SS. His defense is awful.

Of those options, Iglesias looks like the best option. There may be other options that I haven’t gotten to.

[AceWrigley]

If it's an affordable short-term free agent they're looking at, I'd take Iglesias over Simmons or Galvis. I would think if the Twins feel Royce Lewis is the future shortstop they wouldn't sign a pricey free agent or trade for a shortstop. If neither Lewis nor Austin Martin are the "heirs of 6", then a Trevor Story signing or a trade for someone like Tampa's Taylor Walls or the Cardinals' Paul DeJong would plug the shortstop hole.

[rv78]

The answer is quite simple at shortstop. The Twins will pick from the leftovers. just like they do with Pitchers. The last time this organization went out and got a difference maker was in 1991 which coincides with their last Championship. What a coincidence!

[jmlease1]

I believe Galvis has signed in Japan to dodge the lockout Shane Mack-style. I would love Story on this team, though. His defense is superior and he can hit. I'm not worried about his road OPS; that's going to normalize once he's away from altitude full time (we know that playing in Colorado has impact on not just your home stats but your road ones as well) but even if his hitting stats are closer to his road averages he's still a fine hitter for SS.

But I don't think it's going to happen. I think someone offers Story "too much money" and this front office will fold, if they ever considered it in the first place. They just don't seem interested in giving free agents long term contracts for big money this off-season. (the failures to sign any significant starters may be telling) If they're setting a rule for themselves that they're not handing out 5 year plus deals to any free agents, then this is going to be a garbage fire of an offseason, the Buxton signing (which I'm delighted with) not withstanding.

Skipping long term free agent contracts protects you against making a big mistake, but it substantially limits your upside as well, and until some of this young pitching pipeline proves out, we need to assume some risk...because right now we're assuming big, unsustainable risk with our starters, just doing it more cheaply.

[Trov]

With the recent signings of SS, do people really think Story signs a 5 year 125 contract?  I think not.  The price per year may be close, but with Seager getting his 10 years 325, Story will be holding out for something similar I bet. 

When you compare the two Seager is only 1 year younger, but both have played 6 seasons basically, Seager had a 27 game season his first taste.  Story is known to be a much better defender than Seager.  There overall war is better for Story.  I have been low on Story as his home road splits are bad and suggest he gets a bit of a boost from Coores.  Seager home road splits are pretty much even.

Regardless, I see Story looking to get something much closer to Seager deal than 5 for 125.  I bet he is seeking something like 8 at 240.  Teams may not look there, but when you compare his overall numbers and that he is considered better defender than Seager and others that have signed, I bet he is looking closer to a Seager deal than a Seimian or Baez deal, who both have played a lot at 2b and not just SS over the years. 

[Craig Arko]

Give Gordon a shot and sign Goodrum as plan B.

[nicksaviking]

Well Galvis gave Simmons, Iglesias and Villar a nice Christmas present. Less competition for the unattractive SS options will likely lead to higher contracts.

[Nine of twelve]

17 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

2014 - Nick Gordon - picked 5th - 16th in total WAR (Baseball Ref)

2015 - Tyler Jay - picked 6th - Pfffft!

2016 - Alex Kirilloff - picked 15th - 11th in total WAR

2017 - Royce Lewis - picked 1st - nothing so far

2018 - Trevor Larnach - picked 20th - 9th in total WAR

2019 - Keoni Cavaco - picked 13th - only Andrew Vaughn & Alex Manoah have appeared in MLB

2020 - Aaron Sabato - picked 27th - only Garrett Crochet & Reid Detmers have appeared in MLB

2021 - Chase Petty - picked 26th - No one from this draft has appeared in MLB

The total WAR listed above is ranked by players from that year's draft. Nick Gordon, picked 5th,  has 15 1st round picks from the 2014 draft who have produced more total WAR than he did. Only 64% of those drafted 1st round 2014-2018 have a positive WAR.

This is just a small, limited analysis. I'm sure you could develop a Bill James style algorithm to project an estimate career WAR for minor league players and keep or trade accordingly. From quick glance here I'd say that draft picks might serve better as trade capital than not.

I'm not clear. Does this include only first-rounders or all players drafted?

[Nine of twelve]

It all depends on Martin and/or Lewis. If either of them is to be a good shortstop at the major league level for years to come then by the beginning of 2023 at least one of them should have progressed enough to take the position. If that's what the front office thinks will happen it would be silly of them to acquire a high-level free agent shortstop when resources are badly needed to shore up other areas of the roster. It makes sense to me to use a placeholder for one year, just like thought they were doing a year ago with Simmons before Lewis' injury set the timetable back by a year. Gordon or possibly Polanco are the only internal options.

[AceWrigley]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I'm not clear. Does this include only first-rounders or all players drafted?

1st rounders.

[RpR]

Simmons, Simmons, he's our man, if he can't do it NOBODY can.?