Trade Suggestion: Arraez for Kiner-Falefa

[TheLeviathan]

With our options dwindling put me down as having some interest in this gamble.  Not for Arraez, but as an option at SS.

By all offseason measure we're not competing....if we're going to go with a glove first guy he might as well possess some shred of upside.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Garver will also get time at 1st and DH. And Gordon only playing 1/week? Hmm ... not sure this will happen

If Garver is starting behind the plate 5 times a week, he will not play at first.  Unless the Twins carry a third catcher, he will not play much, if at all, at DH.  If Garver is getting significant time at 1B/DH, it's probably because the Twins have found a way to move Donaldson or Sano, and then move Jeffers to catcher 1 and Rortvedt to catcher 2, with Garver playing there maybe 1-2x a week, but becoming primarily a 1B/DH.

Nick Gordon had a .647 OPS last year, and a 77 wRC+.  His BABIP and contact rates are not something that would make you think he was unlucky.  The Twins (at least based on the last 2 months on 2021) do not see him as a shortstop.  Why are we worrying about getting him more PAs?  Seriously, why?

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If Garver is starting behind the plate 5 times a week, he will not play at first.  Unless the Twins carry a third catcher, he will not play much, if at all, at DH.  If Garver is getting significant time at 1B/DH, it's probably because the Twins have found a way to move Donaldson or Sano, and then move Jeffers to catcher 1 and Rortvedt to catcher 2, with Garver playing there maybe 1-2x a week, but becoming primarily a 1B/DH.

Nick Gordon had a .647 OPS last year, and a 77 wRC+.  His BABIP and contact rates are not something that would make you think he was unlucky.  The Twins (at least based on the last 2 months on 2021) do not see him as a shortstop.  Why are we worrying about getting him more PAs?  Seriously, why?

I’m not but it’s silly to carry someone who never plays. He’s not a SS, he’s a utility fielder. 
 

I would bet Garver is not behind the plate 5 days/week

[mnfireman]

22 minutes ago, beckmt said:

Laurach, Kiriloff,  maybe a signing.  You just can't hit .230 and expect to play.

Pretty sure if Larnach (who's not ready) and Kirilloff (who's penciled in at 1B by almost everyone) are in the OF opening day then Kepler has been traded for pitching help, not the Twins 4th OF. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I’m not but it’s silly to carry someone who never plays. He’s not a SS, he’s a utility fielder. 
 

I would bet Garver is not behind the plate 5 days/week

But he wouldn't be never playing.  He never plays if every single guy stays completely healthy for the entire year.  In that scenario, Do we actually want Donaldson/Polanco/Arraez/Miranda losing out on PA's for Gordon?  If 1+ of those guys are not healthy. that's where Gordon gets his PAs, keeping in mind that if Royce Lewis is looking good in his first couple months at AAA, Gordon is by far the most obvious candidate to go back to AAA.

Maybe Garver isn't back there 5x a week, but the Twins clearly value resting him, so if he's not playing 5x behind the plate, it's probably because the Twins don't think he can play more than 4x a week and stay healthy--in that scenario, they're not adding to that workload by putting him at 1B.  They're also not putting him at DH a lot, because they risk losing the DH with injury unless they carry 3 catchers, which means either Gordon or Miranda is not on the team.  I stand by my claim--if Garver is playing more than occasionally at 1B/DH, it's because he's no longer primarily a catcher, and that's not happening unless Donaldson or Sano is moved (for the record, I would be in favor of moving Sano, installing Kiriloff/Garver as your 1B platoon, and getting Garver additional PAs at DH and C 1x a week).

[Squirrel]

Well ... okay, we are getting off topic here ... we have different ideas, and that's good, but this thread is about a potential trade involving Arraez. We need a legit SS and we need pitching. Since we have failed in free agency, will we trade for what we need? We aren't going to get anyone good if we don't trade someone good. Who is expendable for a trade, who has good value, who could be part of a package to get someone good in return? Someone will likely get traded and it's not going to be someone who is on the downside of their career with a big contract. It is going to be someone young with value. Who on the team would you trade then, if not Arraez, to get a quality SS or pitcher in return? I don't agree with the OP's suggestion, but I do agree that Arraez could be a good piece in a trade and should be used if there is an opportunity to do so. Let's hope the FO creates a good opportunity for a good trade. I liked and hated the Graterol for Maeda trade but I still think it was a good trade ... we gave up someone good for what we needed. So, I ask again, if not Arraez, who do you package in a trade to fill what we need? If we are quibbling about who plays where and how it could work to squeeze everyone in, there is opportunity to create room for a trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Third base, unless they moved Seager to third and Semien to short.

FWIW, the Rangers have a 3B prospect ready, Josh Jung. #48 overall at MLB.com, #57 overall at Fangraphs. 8th overall pick in 2019, crushed AA and AAA last year. Steamer already projects him for a 116 wRC+ next year, even before he has made his MLB debut.

So I think the Rangers are set in the infield, although this does suggest they'd be willing to move Kiner-Falefa for something.

[Stew]

Arraez has many more positions he can play. We shouldn't make the same mistake as last year. And get someone who can't hit. Arraez has above the league average in both obp and avg. How about trying to use Gordon. He may not quite be the fielder we need. But he only played half a season. Double his numbers he not bad. He would then have 20 plus sb's.

[nicksaviking]

22 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I’m not but it’s silly to carry someone who never plays. He’s not a SS, he’s a utility fielder. 
 

I would bet Garver is not behind the plate 5 days/week

I just care if he's at the plate 5 days/week since he's the Twins second best offensive option.

As for SS, if the Twins trade away assets for some no-bat stop-gap instead of giving a few million bucks to Iglesis, Villar or Iglesis, than we've got problems. Any and all moveable assets have to go toward pitching unless some surprising offensive talent comes available.

[Squirrel]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I just care if he's at the plate 5 days/week since he's the Twins second best offensive option.

As for SS, if the Twins trade away assets for some no-bat stop-gap instead of giving a few million bucks to Iglesis, Villar or Iglesis, than we've got problems. Any and all moveable assets have to go toward pitching unless some surprising offensive talent comes available.

If you see what I wrote earlier I said that I didn’t think this was the right target for a trade involving Arraez

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

If you see what I wrote earlier I said that I didn’t think this was the right target for a trade involving Arraez

I only quoted you in regards to Garver. I think we are on the same page all around.

[Rosterman]

Larnach will start in the minors. Imagine Kirilloff will be in LF. The question is does Miranda come north or play everyday at St. paul to start the season. Rotate bench and such thru the DH. Sabo remains at 1B. All depends what the Twins eventually do for shortstop in 2022.

[RpR]

Larnach lumbering around the outfield with a weak arm is not a good thought.

[TopGunn#22]

Arraez is our BEST trade chip this off season.  I'm trading him for pitching.  I think Dr. Gast and i have advocated for a trade with Oakland:

A's get:  Arraez  33.3  Sabato  3.0  Cole sands  3.3 = 39.60

Twins get:  FRAKIE MONTAS  39.6  !!!  

If I had to, I'd throw a little somethin' extra Oakland's way to clinch the deal.  Montas, Bundy, Ryan, Ober.  I count Ryan and Ober as ONE SP due to innings limits.  Go out and make a deal with Miami for Max Meyer or Jesus Luzardo.  Our staff would be frustratingly inconsistent, but with Balazovic and others coming at least they'd be BUILDING a starting rotation.  And Miranda moves right into Arraez's spot on the roster.

[umterp23]

Use Larnach as a trade chip sweetener in any deal proposed.  He has flaws and could be a good 4th outfielder for someone down the road.  I don't see it here with him.  He just isn't corner outfielder with consistent pop.  Flip side is other teams probably see the same thing

 

[TopGunn#22]

Larnach still has pretty good value at this point.  If I added him to the trade I laid out out I'd be able to add Chris Bassitt to the Montas deal.  That would give the Twins two solid arms at the top of their rotation in Montas & Bassitt, with Bundy, Ryan and Ober.  Would still need one more SP (can't count on Dobnak at this point).  So I would still look to Miami or the Brewers.

[Russ]

I think Luis is being wasted as the roving fielder.  He needs 500 at bats and consistency.  If he can DH and play some 2B and maybe 3B and get him 500 at bats.  If not he is being wasted.  I don't want to see him blossom elsewhere 

[tony&rodney]

Arraez, Larnach, Sabato, Sands or some combination that does not include Lewis, Martin, Winder, Balazovic, or W-R to Oakland for Bassitt and Montas would be a real organizational building deal and good for Oakland as well, unless they suddenly decide to go with a larger payroll and keep all of their players. All deals off then. 

Yes, we like Arraez, Larnach, and the prospects quite a bit, but the ability to ease the adjustment into MLB for our pitchers is huge. No team expects to have rookies fill 3-5 spots in their starting rotations. Two rookies is really pushing it. With pitchers like Montas, Bassitt, and another plus Bundy leading the way there will be ample opportunity for Winder and the others to show their stuff. If the young dudes play up the Twins have spots filled and go with the hot hands. Without adding some experienced pitchers the Twins are looking at a really tough year and risk hurting the development of the young pitchers. We like Martin and Woods-Richardson, but the Berrios trade really put Falvey in a tough bind which he must now fix via the trade route. I'm not seeing another option and do not accept that a "just roll with the players we have and let the youngsters gain experience" approach is viable with the current everyday lineup core that includes some really good MLB players: Garver, Jeffers, Sano, Polanco, Arraez, Donaldson, Kirillof, Kepler, and Buxton. 

Now we just need to put everything on pause, relax, and hope that bargaining between the two sides in baseball works better than in politics.

[nicksaviking]

11 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Arraez is our BEST trade chip this off season.  I'm trading him for pitching.  I think Dr. Gast and i have advocated for a trade with Oakland:

A's get:  Arraez  33.3  Sabato  3.0  Cole sands  3.3 = 39.60

Twins get:  FRAKIE MONTAS  39.6  !!!  

If I had to, I'd throw a little somethin' extra Oakland's way to clinch the deal.  Montas, Bundy, Ryan, Ober.  I count Ryan and Ober as ONE SP due to innings limits.  Go out and make a deal with Miami for Max Meyer or Jesus Luzardo.  Our staff would be frustratingly inconsistent, but with Balazovic and others coming at least they'd be BUILDING a starting rotation.  And Miranda moves right into Arraez's spot on the roster.

But if the rotation would be inconsistent as you mention, then Montas just gets traded again at the deadline since he'll only have one year of control left after 2022's retooling season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

23 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Arraez is our BEST trade chip this off season.  I'm trading him for pitching.  I think Dr. Gast and i have advocated for a trade with Oakland:

A's get:  Arraez  33.3  Sabato  3.0  Cole sands  3.3 = 39.60

Twins get:  FRAKIE MONTAS  39.6  !!!  

If I had to, I'd throw a little somethin' extra Oakland's way to clinch the deal.  Montas, Bundy, Ryan, Ober.  I count Ryan and Ober as ONE SP due to innings limits.  Go out and make a deal with Miami for Max Meyer or Jesus Luzardo.  Our staff would be frustratingly inconsistent, but with Balazovic and others coming at least they'd be BUILDING a starting rotation.  And Miranda moves right into Arraez's spot on the roster.

That's an interesting idea. Arraez is already arbitration eligible this winter, though (as a "super two" qualifier), so I wonder if he's a little too far along to be targeted by Oakland -- I think they really want those pre-arbitration seasons. (I also wonder if baseballtradesvalues.com knows yet that Arraez is arb-eligible, as the threshold was just disclosed publicly a few days ago.)

Edit to add: I emailed the baseballtradevalues.com folks and they apparently just updated for Arraez’s super two status. So his media value estimate is down slightly, to 27.9.

[tfbw]

On 11/30/2021 at 8:41 AM, stringer bell said:

Since the Rangers signed two shortstops to long-term deals, maybe the Twins could get Kiner-Falefa from them. I suggest Arraez as the player to be traded. 
 

I like Arraez, but trading him for a legit and good defensive shortstop makes sense and also opens a spot for Miranda to make the Opening Day roster. 

 

On 11/30/2021 at 8:41 AM, stringer bell said:

Since the Rangers signed two shortstops to long-term deals, maybe the Twins could get Kiner-Falefa from them. I suggest Arraez as the player to be traded. 
 

I like Arraez, but trading him for a legit and good defensive shortstop makes sense and also opens a spot for Miranda to make the Opening Day roster. 

No, We lose in this trade, imo.

 

[brockbesler]

How about sending Arraez, Larnach, Miranda, Duran, and Sands to the Marlins for Lopez and Meyer? They might want Kepler instead to play center though, which could be workable. If MLB goes to a universal DH, Arraez could become fairly valuable.

[Old fox]

I’m kind a on the fence deciding whether to keep Arraez or trade him for a lite hitting ss who a very good defensive ss. There both perils on the opposite ends of the spectrum. It boils down to; am I more satisfied with accepting 168 hits verses 120 hits per 600 at bats per year. More defensive plays with more errors or more defensive plays & less errors. More hits slowed or less hits allowed. Better skills or less skills. One thing to consider is;  a batter may influence a game about 5 bats per game. A very good infielder may influence a game several more situations than 5. I would prefer a ss who hits 250+ and is an  average fielder.  The Twins have 3 options at ss (1) start Lewis or Martin, (2) sign FA Simmons, (3) sign FA Story.  Any one of the three can be made to work. Pick one and run with it and develop a plan to enhance the decision made. Even when a team has a 600% winning season the team loses 400% of its games. How would an outfield of Buxton cf, Martin lf, Miranda rf operate. Then sign Story for Twins big dollars to play ss. Then trade Arraez, Larnach, Kepler, Sands, Vallimont & Cavaco to Oakland for Montas, Bassitt &Chapman. Then Kirilloff plays 1b, Donaldson to DH, Trade Sano to Milwaukee for Hader. Finally, sign FA relief pitchers Givens Strickland. The bench would carry Gordon, Rooker & Jeffers. Rotation would look like Bassitt, Montas, Ryan, Ober & Bundy. The bullpen would be Hader, Rogers, Duffey, Givens, Strickland, Thielbar, Cantanrino, Moran & Stromen. That’s my dream for the Twins.