Two Tasks Remain for the Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last week, I was ready to write this piece with three things the Twins could be tagged with failure for the offseason should the tasks remain incomplete. They extended Byron Buxton; that was a big number one. There’s still work to be done, and the heavy lifting is yet to come.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine needed to extend Byron Buxton. It was paramount for the franchise. The organization preached Target Field being a vehicle to keep homegrown talent, and Jose Berrios had already departed. Losing Buxton would’ve opened the door to the flip side of Joe Mauer’s situation, and having the power to negotiate singularly with a mega-talent on depressed dollars was unfathomable. Thankfully they pulled through and agreed. Seven years, $100 million. He’s here to stay.
 
Now, what’s next? I’m the “freaking offseason” guy, and if there’s a way for Minnesota to have anything but this winter, it’s by failing to complete these two tasks:
 
1. Spending Must Remain Constant
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office for the 2017 Major League Baseball season. The 2016 Twins were coming off a disastrous 103-loss campaign, and organizational upheaval was afoot. Roster turnover immediately began, and despite being saddled with Paul Molitor as an incumbent manager, the front office spent to the tune of $100.7 million, slightly behind the $104 million a year prior.
 
A step backward is expected when competitiveness wanes. However, the opposite is true when you’re on an upswing, even when results are not necessarily indicative of expectations. After winning 85 games in 2017 and finishing second in the AL Central, Minnesota spent roughly $125 million for the 2018 season. A new franchise record payroll had been established. That team failed to live up to expectations. Despite finishing second in the division, they were 78-84 on the year. Falvey and Levine saw what they had and needed to push forward.
 
Welcome to the Bomba Squad. The 2019 Twins pushed the payroll north of $125 million and were one of the best teams in franchise history. Setting a single-season record for home runs, this group was bounced early from the Postseason but looked poised for more. Covid then gave us a truncated 2020 season, and owners suggested revenues were down. While they may not have turned the same profit, the assumption should be that many organizations still operated in the green. The Twins signed veteran Josh Donaldson to a $100 million contract before Spring Training and essentially held serve from where their 2019 spend ended.

For 2021 the commentary was about decreased payrolls for owners to make up the lost dollars. The Twins cut back to $118 million, just over a 5% decrease from the year prior. Regardless of the misstep in record, it’s clear that this club is on the precipice. Donaldson is here for two more seasons. Buxton has been locked up to a ridiculously affordable pact. The prospects are near the top of the system, and the graduations have all been meaningful ones. It’s time to take another step forward this season and push the bottom line.
 
A bare minimum spend for Minnesota this season should be $130 million. Going to $135 or even $140 million makes a good deal of sense as well. They’d have to splurge pretty heavily to account for that amount, but the rotation remains bare, and a top free agent could certainly be had. That brings us to the second point.
 
2. Allocate the Berrios Dollars
There’s no denying that Minnesota easily could’ve matched the seven-year, $131 million deal that Jose Berrios just got from the Toronto Blue Jays. That’s hardly bank-breaking and would’ve been an excellent opportunity to keep their homegrown talent. The problem seems to be in length; this front-office isn’t giving a pitcher anything over five years.
 
So be it, that’s a fine and understandable stance considering the uncertainty that comes with arms (even if Berrios has been an incredibly durable one). What that means is the money needs to be ticketed elsewhere and on the same scale. $18 million per year is roughly what Berrios got from Toronto. I’m not interested in types like J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda combining to make that money. A true frontline starter has to be acquired in hopes of carrying Berrios’ load. Understandably, the name may come via trade, be under team control, and cost more in prospect capital than dollars. Should that be the case, a strong foot forward for starters number two and three should be shown. This front office has to be willing to overpay on shorter deals if they’re unwilling to hand out the length of their competitors.

Last season the largest misstep was acquiring arms filling the back of the rotation rather than finding a middle-to-upper tier talent that could bolster the top half. Pineda would be a nice get to return, but he should be the worst starter they acquire. The goal needs to be setting Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan up for no more than a 4th and 5th option in a competition as we careen towards Opening Day.

Falvey has established an infrastructure that supports talented arms when they’re available. Minnesota’s starters ranked 5th and 7th in 2020 and 2019 by fWAR, and that was without a splash for Wes Johnson. Go get him a great piece or two and let him work.

Is there’s another area that’s a must this offseason for you to believe in the 2022 Twins chances? Any deal breakers for you?

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[nicksaviking]

Even if 2022 is just a year to set the table and they won't truly be contenders until 2023, I still think they have to nail at least one starting pitcher. I don't mean a nice arm like Pineda who will give you quality innings throughout the season. This team needs to find at least one starter who can legitimately go up against the other team's top one or two arms in a postseason matchup.

I know Ray seems like a pipedream, but they certainly could afford him if they prioritize quality over quantity this winter.

[terrydactyls]

Let's assume the Twins have about $50M available to spend after the Buxton deal in order to stay at a $130M budget.  They could add Ray ($25M), Stoman ($18M), Iglesias at SS ($3M), and Iglesias as a relief pitcher ($8M).  That gets them to $134M.  If the Twins were willing to think big and push the budget to $145M, they could also add Danny Duffy or Alex Cobb.  That would make for a nice offseason.

[blindeke]

22 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Let's assume the Twins have about $50M available to spend after the Buxton deal in order to stay at a $130M budget.  They could add Ray ($25M), Stoman ($18M), Iglesias at SS ($3M), and Iglesias as a relief pitcher ($8M).  That gets them to $134M.  If the Twins were willing to think big and push the budget to $145M, they could also add Danny Duffy or Alex Cobb.  That would make for a nice offseason.

I mostly like this plan because it contains multiple Iglesiai.

[Stew]

The Twins could pattern themselves after the k.c. royals when they won it all. The royals had good pitching and hitting. But what they had was a 5 headed beast out of the bullpen. We can do the same . Rodgers , Duffy, possibly thielbar. Ad to that a knebel and maybe a Brad hand or another closer type. Set there Ego's aside and let them loose. But we still are not close to signing a starter. As far as we can see.

[tony&rodney]

Trade market seemed like a way to go, specifically Oakland and Miami. Miami opportunity has sailed and "The Plan" might unfold after the whole CBA tussle.

[nicksaviking]

I don’t see any reason to trade for the rental Oakland pitchers if the Oakland pitcher is going to be the top arm on the team. That’s just going to be a wasted season for everyone involved.

The Twins should definitely ring that bell if they went big and got even better arms, but that’s looking less likely.

[MGM4706]

Has your article been in the "Draft" folder for awhile? It should have been written 3 months ago! In case you hadn't noticed almost all the good arms have been signed. And most by new teams!! Now the Twins are in the same boat again. The "Happ" boat. Take the left overs, the Tommy John patients!! No team goes deep in the playoffs without an Ace. So give up on that idea. Tigers, White Sox are now solidly ahead of the Twins! But Alas, we saved a few dollars!!

[Blyleven2011]

What's money if you can't enjoy it ,,,

Pohlad keeps looking at his net worth in his bank account ,  

What a boring life ... what has he accomplished in his lifetime except the accumulation of the almighty dollar ,,,

Spend on top quality players and be happy to bring a world series winner to minnesota fans as one of your accomplishments  in life regardless of over spending ..

 

Can't take it with you  and besides it was almost all free money from your inheritance from your father's estate  ,

Spend and have a good time 

[Johnny Ringo]

You forgot the third task; design a stylish surrender flag. Maybe two; home and away.  

[Highlander1]

It's easy to spend other people's $$$,$$$,$$$! 

First thing the Twins need to do to field a World Series Champion sign 2 front line starters. 

Second thing the Twins need to do to be a World Series Champion is sign 2 studs for the bullpen. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Highlander1 said:

It's easy to spend other people's $$$,$$$,$$$! 

First thing the Twins need to do to field a World Series Champion sign 2 front line starters. 

Second thing the Twins need to do to be a World Series Champion is sign 2 studs for the bullpen. 

True and of course they need a SS.  They would have needed to get Scherzer and Ray to have a realistic shot at a playoff run beyond the first round.  So, that's $65M AAV for two SPs and another 50M AAV for the BP arms and a SS.  Obviously, not remotely feasible.  If they felt they could spend $50 total, I am sure they discussed what it would cost in prospects to make up the difference in what's needed.  They don't even have the premier prospects teams want for established difference makers so the cost would be several of our top prospects.  San Diego traded 10 prospects and the players they traded for were relatively highly compensated.

My guess is that their conclusion in terms of how they could build a contender is VERY different than the strategies that have been discussed in numerous threads here.  It's not surprising their actions thus fat don't match what most posters here think should be done.  My guess is that they looked at the relative probability of succeeding at putting together a contender by opening day and completely ruled out that path.  My guess is that they also evaluated a path focused on 2023 and determined the odds of success, especially sustained success were much greater if their planned focused on establishing a couple more SP prospects in 2022 and transitioning Miranda / Martin and possibly Lewis to the ML club.

I would guess they imagined a scenario with Buxton / Polanco / Garver / Kepler / Kirilloff / Miranda / Martin and 4 homegrown starters and Maeda back as a great core.  Now they still have $50M to supplement whatever additional pieces they need. They could also move a portion of Donaldson's contract, pass on Sano's option and have $70M to spend.  I am sure they asked themselves if it was reasonable to expect they could come up with 2 SPs from the group of Balazovic / Duran /Canterino / SWR / Enlow / Winder /  Sands and came to the conclusion that a patient approach had a significantly higher probability of sustained success.