Berrios signs Extension with Blue Jays

[roger]

Happy for Berrios, who I considered a top notch player and person since the day he was drafted.  With that said, not real certain I would want to have a seven year contract with any pitcher.  Yes, Berrios keeps himself 100% in great shape. 

The question, however, is that he has never had any serious injuries.  Don't almost all pitchers have an injury at some point in their career?  At least the ones who pitch for more than ten years in the big leagues?  That could mean that Berrios injury is just waiting to happen.  Kind of like what happened to Santana after he went to the Mets.  The good news for Jose is that like Santana, the money is locked in.  Hoorah for him.

[TheLeviathan]

I defended the deal on the basis that Berrios was intent on FA.  It appears he was just intent to get a long, rich contract.

I still like the deal from a talent perspective, but the organization needs to answer why they couldn't have inked this contract.  Berrios is great value for Toronto at this price.  Either Jose wouldn't sign that same deal here (which is a huge indictment) or we refused to offer it (which is also a huge indictment).

[ashbury]

I've been hard on our FO since the first month of this past season, relative at least to the typical analytically-oriented poster here, but the Berrios trade was not something I held against them, based on the information we were being given during the lead-up to the trade deadline.  That information has turned out to be not very close to the truth, so now it looks like the decision not to offer Berrios what he could get elsewhere is going into my "They're Running the Franchise Into the Ground, Unless a Bunch of Pitching Maybes Pan Out" folder.  My optimism about getting Buxton's signature on a contract just went down from 75% to about 5%, as well.

[nicksaviking]

  On 11/16/2021 at 10:35 PM, ashbury said:

I've been hard on our FO since the first month of this past season, relative at least to the typical analytically-oriented poster here, but the Berrios trade was not something I held against them, based on the information we were being given during the lead-up to the trade deadline.  That information has turned out to be not very close to the truth, so now it looks like the decision not to offer Berrios what he could get elsewhere is going into my "They're Running the Franchise Into the Ground, Unless a Bunch of Pitching Maybes Pan Out" folder.  My optimism about getting Buxton's signature on a contract just went down from 75% to about 5%, as well.

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For my money, if the first sentence isn't going to pan out, there isn't much reason to care about the second.

I don't need to see Buxton rounding the bases on a team that can't develop or sign the pitching needed to contend.

[ashbury]

  On 11/16/2021 at 10:41 PM, nicksaviking said:

For my money, if the first sentence isn't going to pan out, there isn't much reason to care about the second.

I don't need to see Buxton rounding the bases on a team that can't develop or sign the pitching needed to contend.

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I basically don't disagree, but I'm also not too interested in seeing a .500 record when our pitching miraculously rounds into shape just in time for our position players to be below average.

[ashbury]

  On 11/16/2021 at 10:41 PM, nicksaviking said:

can't develop or sign the pitching needed to contend.

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I should have addressed this point also: our FO just demonstrated that they will not make market offers to any top pitchers.  So we won't be getting any via that avenue.

[nicksaviking]

  On 11/16/2021 at 10:45 PM, ashbury said:

I should have addressed this point also: our FO just demonstrated that they will not make market offers to any top pitchers.  So we won't be getting any via that avenue.

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No, you'd have to luck into a late bloomer or underachiever who comes into his own. Let's Charlie Morton and Rich Hill our way into a World Series. Great plan.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 11/16/2021 at 8:30 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

You keep changing what I said.

first you clam I said 3 straight titles, now you claim I said they having done anything. Neither of which I said.

Also - The Twins signed Cruz to a one-year, $14.3 million contract that comes with a $12 million club option for 2020.

Which is exactly what I said basically a 1 year contract.

 

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Here is your quotation, from your post at 9:23 AM this morning. "Wasn't the window clearly open when they won 3 division titles? They barely did a darn thing."  I'm not claiming it, you said it.  You even admitted in a further post you said it, so I have no idea where this sudden denial is coming from.

I apologize for equating "barely did a darn thing" with "haven't done anything".  Nit successfully picked.

Cruz was signed to a deal that could cover two years--if it's basically a one year contract, then it's also basically a two year contract, since it could easily be either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There's still time for the Twins to land a guy like Stroman and come out ahead here (Stroman + Martin + Woods-Richardson).

[howeda7]

  On 11/16/2021 at 3:50 PM, umterp23 said:

We can blame the FO all we want on this signing, but it could have been very easy by the Twins that Berrios wouldn't sign with the Twins regardless of offer, so they traded him.  Not going down would / could / should have done this that or the other.  We roll into next year with a new squad makeup and have at it.  

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By July 2021, he probably wouldn't sign under any circumstances. But they could have signed him much earlier. Instead they tried to low-ball him into a team friendly bargain and ticked him off. Now they are trying to do the same thing with Buxton. And know this isn't a Pohlad edict. It's Falvey being too smart for his own good.

[Squirrel]

  On 11/16/2021 at 11:54 PM, howeda7 said:

By July 2021, he probably wouldn't sign under any circumstances. But they could have signed him much earlier. Instead they tried to low-ball him into a team friendly bargain and ticked him off. Now they are trying to do the same thing with Buxton. And know this isn't a Pohlad edict. It's Falvey being too smart for his own good.

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I don't recall reading specific numbers, do you remember what they were?

[howeda7]

  On 11/16/2021 at 11:58 PM, Squirrel said:

I don't recall reading specific numbers, do you remember what they were?

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Not off-hand. Doogie mentioned some at some point in Spring 2020. It seemed very low but I don't recall specifics.

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 11/16/2021 at 11:54 PM, howeda7 said:

By July 2021, he probably wouldn't sign under any circumstances. But they could have signed him much earlier. Instead they tried to low-ball him into a team friendly bargain and ticked him off. Now they are trying to do the same thing with Buxton. And know this isn't a Pohlad edict. It's Falvey being too smart for his own good.

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How do you know they lowballed him in 2018/2019/2020?  Do you know what the Twins offered?  Do you know what Berrios wanted?  Source?

If the Twins are buying out multiple years of arbitration, and potentially rookie years, the contract is not going to get to a $100M level.  If Berrios was intent on testing FA (as has been shown on this site), he was never going to accept less than $100M.  This is what is called an impasse.

[tony&rodney]

  On 11/16/2021 at 11:48 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

There's still time for the Twins to land a guy like Stroman and come out ahead here (Stroman + Martin + Woods-Richardson).

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I appreciate this response and I'm inclined to always pick the Twins to win the World Series every year. However,  Berrios at $11 m. for 2022 and then 6/$120 was way too much for the Twins? How do the Twins then turn and sign Stroman for 5/$125 or more? The optics and timing of the Berrios signing does throw some shade on us optimists. It is a real "hmmm?".

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 11/17/2021 at 12:48 AM, tony&rodney said:

I appreciate this response and I'm inclined to always pick the Twins to win the World Series every year. However,  Berrios at $11 m. for 2022 and then 6/$120 was way too much for the Twins? How do the Twins then turn and sign Stroman for 5/$125 or more? The optics and timing of the Berrios signing does throw some shade on us optimists. It is a real "hmmm?".

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I'm just saying, assuming Stroman is comparable to Berrios (fair), and IF the Twins can land Stroman on a similar contract:

Having a Starting Pitcher (Stroman) PLUS Martin PLUS Woods-Richardson is greater than having a Starting Pitcher (Berrios) alone.

Of course, that's a big "IF" -- if they can land Stroman on a similar contract. Especially hard to see now, if these Buxton trade reports are true... I was a lot more optimistic a few hours ago!

[tony&rodney]

  On 11/17/2021 at 12:56 AM, Otto von Ballpark said:

Having a Starting Pitcher (Stroman) PLUS Martin PLUS Woods-Richardson is greater than having a Starting Pitcher (Berrios) alone.

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Agreed. Just frustration with all of the news/articles today. Maybe Stroman can happen.

[gunnarthor]

It's time to move on from this FO.

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 11/17/2021 at 4:50 AM, gunnarthor said:

It's time to move on from this FO.

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Be careful what you wish for.

[Linus]

  On 11/17/2021 at 4:50 AM, gunnarthor said:

It's time to move on from this FO.

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I try not to have knee jerk reactions because they seem like good guys and have accomplished some good things. Now the but…….I keep finding myself coming back to the idea that they don’t evaluate players well.   As I contemplate this more it occurs to me that identifying talent is the most important skill in their roles. So I guess I think they should go. 

[Mike Sixel]

They literally won two division titles...... Do people expect them to really be competitive every year? Other than Tampa, is any mid or low market team? What are realistic expectations?

[spanman2]

  On 11/16/2021 at 2:54 PM, chpettit19 said:

Looks like 7 years 131M. I defended the FO not extending him as him possibly asking for way too much, but if this is what he was asking the Twins for I'm pretty upset. He was absolutely worth that for the Twins and they should've signed that deal. I like Martin a lot, and SWR looks good, but it's really frustrating that it took less than 20 a year to sign him.

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I bet it was the 7 years that the Twins didn't watch to touch.  My guess is they were looking at 3-4 years with similar $$$/yr.  I am with you my friend...should have been able to accommodate that!

[Danchat]

  On 11/17/2021 at 7:24 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They literally won two division titles...... Do people expect them to really be competitive every year? Other than Tampa, is any mid or low market team? What are realistic expectations?

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I expect them not to waive the white flag after one bad season... sure, I don't expect them to be a contender every year, but we're already talking about trying to rebuild this roster so soon after back-to-back division titles. Part of the frustration is probably from the failure to develop talent from the minors, and when that talent has been realized, it's come from the guys that escaped the organization. 

[Mike Sixel]

  On 11/18/2021 at 1:43 AM, Danchat said:

I expect them not to waive the white flag after one bad season... sure, I don't expect them to be a contender every year, but we're already talking about trying to rebuild this roster so soon after back-to-back division titles. Part of the frustration is probably from the failure to develop talent from the minors, and when that talent has been realized, it's come from the guys that escaped the organization. 

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I get frustration. I don't get firing them and saying they have no clue, which others are. Over and over. 

[Vanimal46]

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

So it's back-loaded, which neutralizes the opt-out quite a bit. If he opts out after 5 years, the Jays only had to pay him $83 mil.

And the escalators are only for years 6 & 7 (after the opt out), based on his performance in years 4 & 5. Not bad for the team either -- the better he is in years 4-5, the more incentive the Jays would want to give him to forgo the opt-out for years 6-7 anyway.

[USAFChief]

  On 11/17/2021 at 7:24 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They literally won two division titles...... Do people expect them to really be competitive every year? Other than Tampa, is any mid or low market team? What are realistic expectations?

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Not only do I expect them to be competitive every year, that's what Falvey claimed as his goal when hired:

The goal here is straightforward and measurable,” Falvey said. “It’s to build a sustainable and championship-caliber team and organization

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/twins-introduce-derek-falvey-thad-levine.html

 

This team is anything but "sustainably championship quality" today, and it's really difficult to imagine it will be any time soon.

They have ZERO MLB starting pitchers as I type this. None. 

That, in and of itself, is enough to question whether they deserve another day in office.

 

 

[ashbury]

  On 11/19/2021 at 8:50 PM, USAFChief said:

Not only do I expect them to be competitive, that's what Falvey claimed as his goal when hired:

The goal here is straightforward and measurable,” Falvey said. “It’s to build a sustainable and championship-caliber team and organization

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/twins-introduce-derek-falvey-thad-levine.html

 

 

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I need to put that URL on speed-dial.

[USAFChief]

  On 11/19/2021 at 8:54 PM, ashbury said:

I need to put that URL on speed-dial.

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So does Falvey. 

[Mike Sixel]

  On 11/19/2021 at 8:50 PM, USAFChief said:

Not only do I expect them to be competitive every year, that's what Falvey claimed as his goal when hired:

The goal here is straightforward and measurable,” Falvey said. “It’s to build a sustainable and championship-caliber team and organization

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/twins-introduce-derek-falvey-thad-levine.html

 

This team is anything but "sustainably championship quality" today, and it's really difficult to imagine it will be any time soon.

They have ZERO MLB starting pitchers as I type this. None. 

That, in and of itself, is enough to question whether they deserve another day in office.

 

 

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What did you expect him to say?

And, how many teams are competitive ever year? Not many. 

I do agree with your other points, but that's a very different discussion. 

But, again, that has zero to do with the point that they aren't stupid, actually know something about baseball, etc.

If you expect a mid-market team to be competitive every year, you are setting yourself up for major disappointment.

[USAFChief]

  On 11/19/2021 at 9:39 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What did you expect him to say?

And, how many teams are competitive ever year? Not many. 

I do agree with your other points, but that's a very different discussion. 

But, again, that has zero to do with the point that they aren't stupid, actually know something about baseball, etc.

If you expect a mid-market team to be competitive every year, you are setting yourself up for major disappointment.

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I expect him to believe what he says.

St Louis has been above .500 every year for over a decade. Atlanta in 9 of the last 13 seasons.  And they've managed to win a post season game.