Pick Your Veteran Trade Asset

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins need to get better before the 2022 season if they’re going to contend in the AL Central. While dealing from a prospect pool typically seems most straightforward, this club may be poised to flip an established veteran.

Typically, baseball assumes that you’re dealing from a pool of future talent to acquire something usable now, or vice versa. That is a logical assumption, but one that may not fit the Twins current mold. If their goal is to get better now, without embarking on a complete rebuild, dealing from a position of depth could be a path to accomplishing that goal.

When looking at the Twins roster, there are three current regulars that all provide an enticing level of opportunity regarding the trade market. At catcher, it’s Mitch Garver. From an infield or utility perspective, it’s Luis Arraez. In the outfield, it’s Max Kepler. Sure, if we’re not re-signing Byron Buxton, then he has to be moved, but I choose not to live in a online world where that may be a possibility. With that said, let’s explore the three options.

Mitch Garver
Rebounding to the tune of an .875 OPS following a down year in 2020, Garver looked again like a top-tier bat behind the plate. He’s an adept pitch framer and has made considerable strides defensively. While age isn’t on his side for a future payday, he’s still plenty ripe for a prime stretch at 31-years-old being a late-blooming prospect.

With Ryan Jeffers as his backup, it could be argued that Minnesota has a luxury in their backstop stable. 2020 showed a brief glimpse of what Jeffers may be, and as a future starter, he could push toward the upper tier for the position. Behind him, however, is Ben Rortvedt, who is almost certainly going to be a defense-only type of player. Moving Garver could net the Twins a handsome return, and catcher is one of the most challenging places in the sport to squeeze out offensive production. The Twins may desire to do this if Garver’s future prognosis trends more towards designated hitter duties as injuries mount. Selfishly, I’d like them to avoid this route. Give me all the Garv Sauce.

Luis Arraez
Formerly a fill-in for Jorge Polanco at second base, Arraez has established himself as one of baseball’s best pure hitters. He’s a contact guy that will always hit for average, and he has an incredible sense of plate discipline. Not a great defender anywhere; he truly can play everywhere after being thrust into a left-field role at times during the 2021 season.

Assuming that Minnesota opts to keep Polanco at second base and sign a shortstop, that leaves Arraez looking at a utility role once again. He can spell Josh Donaldson at the hot corner and take reps in the outfield, but his defensive home will cease to exist. There’s no denying the at-bats will always be there for him with the Twins, but what is the gain should he be flipped to a team that sees him as their everyday option in the same defensive role? I don’t know that moving Arraez is an opportunity cost that Minnesota should be looking into. His utility is invaluable, and he covers multiple guys necessary of a true insurance policy.

Max Kepler
We’ve made it to the one player in this trio that finds themselves still seeking peak value. The .719 OPS in 2021 was a career-low, and the .855 mark during the 2019 Bomba Squad year looks as distant as ever. There is this, though, as Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming pointed out, Kepler’s expected results are drastically different from what reality is giving us. I’ve consistently hoped that Kepler would elevate the baseball and see the payoff due to his hard-hit contact potential. We noticed some of that in 2019, and that consistency is the biggest thing holding him back.

Under team control through 2023 and tied to a 2024 team option, Kepler’s contract is among the most enticing things about him. He’s not turning any heads with a 98 OPS+, but at 123 or even 109 in 2020, he’s an above-average player that’s stellar on defense and could net something nice. Kepler’s value is hard to pinpoint given the results in comparison to what you’d hope he’s capable of. Getting the right team to bite on the right return is the goal, and with young outfield talent behind him, a flip could be more than beneficial for both sides.

What do you think? If you’re trading a regular from the Twins lineup, who is it that you’re moving, and who do you think has the most value

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[mikelink45]

Trade them all - get pitching!  The issue is, who needs what they bring.  Garver is the most valuable by far of all of them. 

[gman]

The first player I would look to move is Donaldson.  Large contract, injury prone. Of course, those 2 negatives also make it difficult to trade him. I would try to trade him to the Yankees for Peraza, a shortstop #3 on their prospect list.

[tony&rodney]

Twins fans love all three of these players. It is likely that a poll would value Garver and Arraez above Kepler. Personally, i like all three. However, the Twins have zero experienced pitchers heading into next season. The free agent market will not fill all of their needs, thus a few trades need to be completed. Regrettably, I would use both Garver and Arraez in trades. Kepler is a good outfielder and I'm interested in the Twins improving their defense, so i keep Kepler. That said, if Kepler is the player that returns a strong starting pitcher then even Magic Max goes. Parting with any of these players would be tough and if there was a way to find four pitchers without trading .... ok. I cannot configure any semblance of a decent roster for 2022 that does not include at least one significant trade.

[Brandon]

The teams dealing starting pitching thus far: Miami, Cincinnati. and Oakland.  only 1 is seeking major league offense and the other 2 are going into a full rebuild so prospects....

[Thebigalguy]

I say keep all three. The right coach will get Kepler back where he should be. Arraez as super-utility guy is priceless and won't bring all that much. Garver is the goods behind and at the plate. That said, there's always the chance somebody will make an offer the front office can't refuse, but my deal is that Falvine should play hard to get with offensive (and, with Kepler, defensive) talent. It goes without saying they should pay the piper to keep Buxton. If we want to be the next Houston, we need the smarts they have (without the corruption, of course). It's the only way to be competitive year in and out. It's the classic business axiom, as far as pitching goes; you have to spend money to make money. Let's make some money (win some games)!

[Doctor Gast]

Hate lose any of them but, I'm open to trade all of them for top of the line pitching, nothing less. Arraez should be our primary trading piece. On the field he is easily replaced IMO it could be better for him if he goes. If we trade Kepler we'd have to absolutely find another CF to play LF and sub Buxton. If we lose both Buxton and Kepler our OF would be worse than most AAA. As for Garver I'd rather trade Jeffers because Garver is a more established hitter, a better arm and IMO Jeffers will have a higher price tag because he's younger, more team control, less salary and is MLB ready. I also like Rortvedt as our future catcher. His defense is there and with time so will his hitting. We can find a Jason Castro type until he does. 2 RH catchers seems to me counter productive.

[mike8791]

Nice summary, Ted!  While many of us here are clamoring for a top-of-the-rotation FA signing, the whole history of this organization unfortunately points to disappointment on this score.  The Twins have historically shied away from long term signings(I believe 4 years is as far as they've gone).  The Jays recent signing of Berrios to a fair $18.5MM/year contract is a strong example of this.  I don't think many of us thought he would sign for such a reasonable amount  and wonder why the Twins couldn't have at least matched that.  The reason is simple - Berrios wanted long term security and Toronto gave him 7 years.  E. Rod's signing by the Tigers and Thor's s deal with the Angels adds further evidence that this org. just will not take that kind of risk, no matter how desperate our need is for starting pitching.  As far as FA signings go, does anyone expect the FO to land one of the top dogs in a very good FA class?  Likelihood is the pattern of waiting around until Jan/Feb until bargain basement FAs are identified will continue again this year.

So trading for young, controlled pitching is more likely.  And to get a valuable piece, the Twins will have to give up something of value.  Who they give up is a big question.  As you note, the Twins have some depth in the C, middle IF, and corner OF positions.  Arraez is the easiest pick to offer, but doubt he would be a centerpiece for a solid starter.  However, such a package including Arraez and a couple of top 20 prospects might get one of the A's starters or perhaps even Gallen.

Garver also has value, but my bet is that young, rebuilding teams like Miami would much rather have Jeffers than the older Garver( and that would be a good thing, especially if contending next year is really the goal).  It does not take a genius to see the matchup with Miami if only the Wonder Boys were unafraid to take the risk and add some top prospect or two to sweeten the pot.

Kepler would be the last regular I'd trade, mainly because there is already a big question mark in LF, so unless the FO had the budget and will to sign a major league hitter like Canha or even Marte, they just couldn't afford to weaken the OF any further, even assuming they resigned Buxton.  Kirillof is destined for 1B , Larnach is still a major unknown, and Celestino/Martin/Lewis are a ways away.

All this speculation is out the window if Buxton is traded.  At that point it would be obvious that the FO lied to fans about their contending in 2022.   Instead, expect a big selloff would be their path, with the inevitable 4-5 year wait to return to relevance.  The one good thing about such a rebuilding path is that Falvine would not be around to mishandle it.

[Tim]

If the team is leaning toward dealing Buxton, why would Jorge Polanco not be available? Fit's the timeline of the next core and you would get an absolute haul.

Marcus Semien on a 5/120 deal or have the younger option in Jorge Polanco, who's on a 4/35 deal.

Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants all come to mind

[Mauer4HOF]

While I love Arraez and Garver, I think we have to own up that our biggest need is pitching and these two not only bring us more value but we also have talent and youth (albeit unproven) knocking at the door in Martin, Miranda, Royce,  not to mention Larnach and Kiriloff.   Let’s package these two and get a good arm or two.  Kepler has the potential given his athleticism to play all OF especially if (when) Kiriloff and Larnach, and the young talent struggles.  I don’t know that Jeffers is as proven offensively but he seems like a much superior defensive catcher. Great article!

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, Tim said:

If the team is leaning toward dealing Buxton, why would Jorge Polanco not be available? Fit's the timeline of the next core and you would get an absolute haul.

You do make a valid point. Polanco is the Twins MVP and the most likely to bring back a good package of players or a pitcher. This would, however, signal a five year rebuilding plan. At that point one could then argue that Kepler, Rogers, Duffey, Sano, and Donaldson should all be traded for prospects.  The payroll could be #25 million too. The Twins are currently about in the middle rankings of the MLB farm systems, but these trades would move them towards the top of team prospect rankings.

I don't think this is a feasible idea. i do think Polanco is a real gem.

 

[Tim]

41 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You do make a valid point. Polanco is the Twins MVP and the most likely to bring back a good package of players or a pitcher. This would, however, signal a five year rebuilding plan. At that point one could then argue that Kepler, Rogers, Duffey, Sano, and Donaldson should all be traded for prospects.  The payroll could be #25 million too. The Twins are currently about in the middle rankings of the MLB farm systems, but these trades would move them towards the top of team prospect rankings.

I don't think this is a feasible idea. i do think Polanco is a real gem.

 

I don’t mean to call you out directly but I want to ask this question.

Why is it that whenever we talk about trading a top player, everyone thinks it’s a rebuild, which would insinuate 4-5 years of losing.

Just because your acquiring a prospect, doesn’t mean that they can’t contribute in the near future (Joe Ryan, Austin Martin, etc.) 

Not every single prospect is 5 years away. You can still build a contending team in a relatively short timeline, just have to target the right players.

 

[Rosterman]

I would trade them all and add Donaldson and Sano to the mix. I guess I would get a stopgap shortstop NOT named Simmons. I would also explore a dynamite outfield addition, besides the necessary arms for the rotation and a REAL closer. Maybe some of those pieces would come back trading Garver, Sano, Arraz, Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton.

 

Hopefully Jeffers steps up, Kirilloff is the real deal, Miranda can hit and field, and Larnach and Celestino can be joined by some new power back. Hey, if we got rid of all those guys, I would consider resigning Cruz for DH!

[farmerguychris]

I'd move Arraez - sell high on him. While we all enjoy his hitting - he's not going to get any better with his bad knees.  Instead, his value is only going to decline as injuries pile up until he simply can't play anymore.  Its a shame for such a young guy, but not everyone was meant to play sports in the bodies they were born with.  Get something for him now while we can.

[Twins33]

I think Polanco has the most value but wouldn’t want him traded. I’ll say Arraez due to lack of defensive position and power. 

[tony&rodney]

On 11/16/2021 at 11:22 PM, Tim said:

Why is it that whenever we talk about trading a top player, everyone thinks it’s a rebuild, which would insinuate 4-5 years of losing.

This is a fair question. First, it is not a case of everyone reacting to trades, but more that many readers feel Byron Buxton is a unique talent. Because of his injuries, he also would not likely bring back a major MLB ready player due to the risk assumed by the receiving team. Many have discussed trades of most of the other Twins. This list has included Rogers, Duffey, Sano, Donaldson, Garver, and Kepler as well as less expensive younger players. Jorge Polanco is the Twins most consistently productive player on a very team friendly contract. Prospects all have an uphill climb. The standard to reach a good productive year is 5-7 years from signing, maybe 1-2 years less for a college player, but this can vary. Teams that are looking to win are not usually selling off their established stars. They are willing to part with players who have flaws and may be replaceable. I myself have stated on numerous occasions that there are opportunities for the Twins to be competitive next season, and have also stated a willingness to trade any player if it makes the Twins a better team next year. Players like the Twins top prospects may have good seasons next year. We hope so. The reality is that rookies and prospects struggle to become established at the ML level. Even the Rookie of the Year, Randy Arozarena, struggled, was traded, and needed time to flourish. He just finished his 6th year of professional baseball not counting real experience in Cuba. Martin has just had a brief time in AA ball and we hope he gets at bats next season with the Twins, but he has a ways to go. Ryan just made a few starts for the Twins and next year will be carefully guarded in his usage, thus reducing his overall mark even if he stays ahead of the adjustment of the league. His fastball plays up at 91/92 mph and this is tough territory for a pitcher. Dobnak seemed like someone just a year ago and may still be good. The route to being an established productive MLB player is long and Jorge Polanco and the experienced Twins are well ahead of the prospects at this time. Removing the core in favor of prospects yields a tough climb. Houston made the journey and Baltimore is trying. Many Twins fans are not ready for another batch of difficult seasons because we think the current core can be supplemented to do well next season. It is just all opinion, more or less.