Should the Twins Trade for Salary Relief?

[Ted Schwerzler]

When talking about 2022, the Minnesota Twins front office has made it clear they intend to compete. After an unexpected down year, they’ll need to add talent to reverse course. Does shedding the salaries of two starters help reshape the roster and get them there?

Both Miguel Sano and Josh Donaldson are polarizing Twins players for differing reasons. The former is a hulking slugger that crushes mammoth blasts but goes through cold spells where it seems his bat has a literal hole in it. The latter is a talented slugger that holds down the hot corner but can often not be counted upon when it comes to consistent availability. This offseason, both could be on the trading block, but any return would likely focus on a re-allocation of funds rather than the asset joining the organization.

Let’s first take a look at Sano. Miguel is owed $9.25 million in 2022 with a $2.75 million buyout in 2023. Minnesota is on the hook for $12 million over the next two seasons at worst. After a few years stunted by injuries, Sano played in 53 (of 60) games during 2020 and 135 last season. His .778 OPS was a far cry from the .923 mark he posted during the Bomba Squad season of 2019, but he did return the on-base percentage north of .300. His 112 OPS+ puts him just north of league average, although he was worth just 0.4 fWAR after contributing 0.5 in roughly one-third the number of games during 2020.

Looking at Fangraphs valuation of fWAR, Sano has been worth just $3.5 and $4.2 million each of the past two seasons. Despite having entered Spring Training in better shape the past few years, he’s just never stayed consistent enough to produce at a high level. Unfortunately, it’s not just the Twins that are aware of this. Sano would almost undoubtedly clear waivers if Minnesota wanted to go that route, which means no one is trading for him and the current price that comes along with it. The Twins would need to eat a significant salary with even a tiny hope of bringing a warm body back in return.

Internally there are immediate options to replace Sano. Alex Kirilloff becomes your everyday first basemen, and the designated hitter role gets to be a revolving door. That’s not a terrible thing, but I’m also not sure that keeping Sano as a bottom-of-the-lineup slugger sets you back at all. The cost is already sunk on Miguel, and without the ability to generate enough relief to swap him out with another impact player, riding the final season out seems wise.

On Donaldson, the situation is different as he’s an above-average talent. Playing 135 games for Minnesota in 2021, coincidentally the same amount as Sano, he posted an .827 OPS. The former American League MVP has an .829 OPS in Minnesota across 163 games. He missed significant time in 2020 and then was hurt early on in 2021. Down the stretch, he became a reliable contributor but did need to be shut down in the field for a period due to his nagging calf issues.

The Bringer of Rain will be 36 in 2022 and is still owed at least $51.5 million through 2023. Putting up 2.2 fWAR last season, Fangraphs valued Donaldson’s worth just north of $17 million. That still falls below the $21.75 million the Twins are on the hook annually for, and he last had back-to-back seasons of at least 3.0 fWAR in 2017.

I don’t think there’s any denying that Donaldson is still a very good player and that a competing Twins team should want his talent in their lineup. He is, however, not $21 million a year good and carries a significant injury risk while continuing to age. The Twins could certainly get something nice in return for Donaldson, but it’s not going to come without eating close to half of his remaining salary and will likely be in the form of a future prospect.

Ultimately I’m not sure that either player makes sense to trade if the Twins want to compete. Both Sano and Donaldson bring value to the lineup, and while their cost certainly outweighs that fact, the alternative option for either isn’t necessarily a desirable avenue. Minnesota can be done with Sano after this season should they choose, and the year ahead could provide a more straightforward path for Donaldson’s future as well. Roll with both, allow Jose Miranda to be an internal backup plan on either, and leave the spending to other areas of the roster.

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[TheLeviathan]

Donaldson has several ready replacements.  The Twins have bigger needs 50M could be spent on IMO.

[PDX Twin]

I think that I agree with the non-trade sentiment, if only because the returns will be paltry. A central problem is, I think, that many Twins fans tend to think of both as players who should be stars. If I think of them as (overpaid) "squad players" who contribute to the team but are not the superstars (or even necessarily regular starters) we hoped that they would be (and that Donaldson formerly was), then I am very comfortable having them on the team. 

This helps me relegate my disappointment to the organization for signing Donaldson for more than his worth and for failing to help Sano reach the heights that were expected of him (though he is probably at fault as much as the organization).

[Doctor Gast]

For now I'd keep both. Donaldson would be a great mentor for Miranda and at the end of the year  I could see Sano turn the corner at adjusting away from that big swing / big SO style. IMO the trade deadline could be a better time to think trade for both of them.

[DJL44]

It's going to be awfully hard to find a trade partner for either. Most likely you'll just get someone else's overpaid player in return.

[Brandon]

Do the Twins have insurance on Donaldson's s contract? If so we don't lose by keeping him.  He stays healthy and Miranda goes up and down and plays all around the diamond and is mentored by a healthy Donaldson.  He gets injured and Miranda plays 3rd.  Insurance kicks in Twins have a little cash for in season addition fir stretch run.  

If we value our players more than other teams we should just keep these players.  Its not like we are getting an absolute loss.  I am still happy we went out and signed a player like Josh Donaldson as it takes away the Pohlad is cheap arguement once and for all.  Plus it shows even top talent will come to Minnesota..  

Sanyo could be poised for a breakout.  I know we say that every year but in the second half he showed more patience and had his best k rate... But there is no bad one year contracts so if its a 1 year overpay I am fine with that.  Also would like to see him get to 200 HRs in a Twins uniform.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's going to be awfully hard to find a trade partner for either. Most likely you'll just get someone else's overpaid player in return.

Ir we give up a prospect and make it a 3 team trade.  Team A gets Donaldson from team B.  Team C get a prospect from team B and sends 10 million to offset some salary..  Other players and stuff is used to complete the trade ledger but this is the main components of a trade....

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Donaldson has several ready replacements.  The Twins have bigger needs 50M could be spent on IMO.

We had those same needs when we signed Donaldson.  Just that he was the best improvement available and we allocated the funds there then.  Also I wouldn't be surprises if we kept him the 5th year if his contract.  Its only 8 million at that point.

[DocBauer]

I agree with keeping both at this time. Yes, trading either or both provides at least some salary relief. But with each you are also having to eat about half of their salaries to get a marginal or low level flier prospect back. If lucky, you might find someone willing to give up a quality RP option either proven or just at the beginning of their career but having flashed and seemingly ready.

Donaldson is the harder move for me. He proved in 2021 he is still a very good and dangerous player. He also brings experience, leadership and a bit of fire to the team, though his "spirit" sometimes makes him a target. And like last year, he needs to spend some time at DH to keep him fresh. I'm OK with that. I think Miranda is going to be very good. But he's still a rookie. I think Arraez is also fine at 3B on an occasional basis. But the clubhouse and lineup just looks better with Donaldson on board, IMO. I just don't think you get enough "value" back by trading him and eating half his salary. Now, if someone really likes him and is willing to trade a low A flier and take on all of most of all his contract so the Twins can make a serious move for a top SS, then the conversation changes.

But there still isn't enough room to make a move for one of those FA SS, with pitching being the top priority, unless Sano is also moved for full, or mostly full salary relief. And what are the odds of BOTH of those things happening?

I'm OK with being inventive and creative and aggressive. I just don't know if it can happen the way we might fantasize it happening. Balance sheet wise, I think both come back as part of 2022. At least initially.

 

[Nashvilletwin]

I appreciate the sentiments to keep Josh. However, they seem to be predicated upon the notion that the Twins are in a position to contend in 2022. That just doesn’t seem realistic to me - even assuming the FO is willing to stay around the $130MM payroll level.  There are just too many holes to fill.  Besides, there is a lot of young talent in the field and on the bump that need innings to develop. It could be best to just reinvest a bit for a year to get the benefit of a longer open window starting in 2023. 

A team in that situation needs to be long ascending assets. Josh, bless his heart, is a declining asset - who costs $50+MM to boot.

So assuming we are rebuilding to some degree with an eye on really being able to contend in two years, would you rather have an aging out Josh at $51MM or utilize some or much of that cash to get a true SS in here (in a great year to find a FA) on a longer term deal and let Miranda grow into the role with Arraez? BTW, I’m clearly in the camp that neither Martin nor Lewis projects as our starting SS. They should be our starting LF and RF bracketing Buxton in 2023. So let’s get the SS now that would be the lynchpin up the middle for what should be our emerging window.

Move Josh. If he’s as good as a lot of us TDers think he is, we might get more than we think for him (especially with the universal DH coming down the pike).

 

 

[Rosterman]

If anyone comes knocking, I would listen. I would also consider sweeting the deal with a prospect, if they take all the salary and...we get something half-way promising in return. 

 

The money can be better spent elsewhere, but sadly any team that might be a match for either player also needs to lok at the worth the player brings to them. Of course, both can be valuable additions if the National League switches to a designated hitter. Plus, both can play infield positions.

 

Our choices for third are the unproven Miranda and the work-the-count singles guy Arraez. 

 

I don't see either as anything but a luxury, and suddenly a logjam IF you had to play either as an exclusive DH. At this point, I would be happier adding another catcher and makiing Garver the fulltime DH (who can also be the third catcher) with Kirilloff getting the 1st base job, and hoping we can land a leftfielder, third baeman and/or shortstop.

 

I don't see the Twins digging themselves out of the cellar until they address Byron Buxton and his future with the Twins.

[Otaknam]

Buxton is the BIGGGGG question, so I hope they sign him to an extension. Agree that keeping Sano and Donaldson makes sense given that they won’t get much in return in a trade. I think Sano is a bounce back candidate if he can channel a little Miguel Cabrera and be a professional hitter by hitting the ball where it’s pitched instead of trying to pull every pitch 500 feet. I do look forward to the young MiL starters getting a chance in 2022, and hopefully Baldelli will let them pitch more than four or five innings, as is his head scratching history with Ober.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins FO dug itself a deep hole with  Donaldson's contract  I said this before Donaldson was signed, that Donaldson's old skinny  legs would not hold up because he came to the majors as a catcher, and had had leg (calf) problems for years, plus he was old for a catcher. Who signs an old catcher to a high dollar,  multi-year contract ? Nobody.. OK I understand that Donaldson was/is an "ex-catcher", but the results of minor league years of wear and tear on his legs are showing.  But did the FO read my posts and take my advice. NO !   You may say, "Well Tarheel,  hindsight is 20/20"...but I never would have signed Donaldson and I said so before the Twins signed him, so that's not hindsight. That's foresight.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

We had those same needs when we signed Donaldson.  Just that he was the best improvement available and we allocated the funds there then.  Also I wouldn't be surprises if we kept him the 5th year if his contract.  Its only 8 million at that point.

The Twins didn't have a ready to go 3B at the time IMO with Sano moving to 1B.  Right now we have Miranda or Arraez as options, so to me the situation is a bit different.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The question was should the Twins trade Sano and/or Donaldson for salary relief? The Answer is : (drum roll please) "They would, if they could, but they can't". 

[Major League Ready]

18 hours ago, Brandon said:

We had those same needs when we signed Donaldson.  Just that he was the best improvement available and we allocated the funds there then.  Also I wouldn't be surprises if we kept him the 5th year if his contract.  Its only 8 million at that point.

He will be 38.  The odds just are not good that he is the next Nelson Cruz.  Odds are he will be replacement level by then.  I would bet Miranda will be a considerably more valuable player in 2024 and the $7M can always be used for a BP arm.

[tony&rodney]

I guess what one does with Josh Donaldson depends on their specific goals. JD had a good year and we can speculate plenty about his age and calves. He is getting older every day and there are legitimate concerns about his legs too. By the way, we can say the exact same thing about Luis Arraez. In any case, JD is among the top three batters for the Twins and expecting that production to be replaced is not very easy, simple, or guaranteed. I'm happy the Twins signed Josh Donaldson and look forward to him playing for the team again next year because I like to watch good baseball players.

[bean5302]

The Twins do not need salary relief. They should be near $150MM a year during normal years and expanding to up to $180MM when their window is open. The market size, stadium, etc all allow for that level of expenditure.

In any case, Sano and Donaldson are both part of the front office creating an enormous log jam of big bats with limited defensive value. The Twins are going to move a couple guys this offseason to clear log jams and improve versatility, but we'll have to see who they move.

I'm not at all on board with selling prospects. That's exactly where front offices earn "F" grades. Like Phil Hughes.

[gman]

In a manner of speaking the Twins already have given themselves some salary relief by trading Berrios. Granted not their fault since they were not going to go way over the market for him and Berrios wouldn't sign. The same may be true if Buxton won't sign and they trade him.

Certainly not what you want to do with high upside younger players, but I think they know what their long term budget will be and have to plan for future years and not just 2022.

[Einheri]

I'd trade Donaldson if the Twins didn't need to eat too much of his salary and/or give up too much with him as part of a package.  But I don't think that would be the case, so I would have him play 3B about half of the time and DH the rest of the time.

If you can, and if the Twins fail to get quality starting pitching (almost a certainty given the history of their ownership), and if Josh is having a good year, try trading him before the All-Star Game.

And, of course, I would trade Donaldson for nothing if another team ate the entirety of his salary.

[bean5302]

Donaldson had an unbelievably poor luck year in 2021. There's just nothing in his batted ball profile which would indicate he wasn't an elite hitter. The guy should have put together a 4-5 WAR season with a wRC+ in the mid 140s. Sometimes, luck isn't on the players side. Selling low on him would make the front office look dumb indeed.

[KirbyDome89]

On 11/6/2021 at 12:17 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Donaldson has several ready replacements.  The Twins have bigger needs 50M could be spent on IMO.

Odds that they're able to move him without eating any of that $50M?

If the Twins are eating half of that and the remaining $$ allows them to go an extra year or higher AAV to land a top SS I can get on board. If they're going to use it on a couple SP stopgaps in the $10-12M range while they "reset," then I'll pass. 

[TopGunn#22]

gman beat me to it !!!  We already got our salary relief by trading Berrios for two good prospects.  Donaldson & Sano are under water for trade value so the return would be low.  I was all for trading Sano last off season and all year this year up to the trade deadline.  However, as the team is currently constructed and with the near certainty that we will NOT be bringing Nellie Cruz back, I'm fine hitting Sano 7th or 8th and moving him between 1B and DH.  Donaldson was actually pretty good last year and with his value also under water I'm keeping him and grooming Miranda to be our UT guy to play 3B, LF, 2B maybe some 1B after we trade Arraez for pitching.  And as I will continue to repeat all through the winter up to next opening day:  The Twins should be able to compete in a less than stellar A.L. Central if they make the right moves to the pitching staff and find a permanent or stop gap solution at SS.  The options are many and variable.  It's up to the FO to have a S.F. Giants kind of off season.  The question is, are they good enough to pull it off ??

[TheLeviathan]

17 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Odds that they're able to move him without eating any of that $50M?

If the Twins are eating half of that and the remaining $$ allows them to go an extra year or higher AAV to land a top SS I can get on board. If they're going to use it on a couple SP stopgaps in the $10-12M range while they "reset," then I'll pass. 

None, I think they'll have to eat about 7M for the next two years.  That's still 18M a year to play with though.

And yeah, if they Terry Ryan that money away it will be a terrible move.