Article: Low Expectations Are Easy to Exceed

[jay]

If JJ is good, does anyone think he is not re-signed by his current team?

 

I could see it as possible if Toronto doesn't do as well as they are hoping. If they were to go deep in the playoffs, it'd be hard to see them letting him go.

[fairweather]

For me it's about the starting pitching. If the Twins get some innings out of Harden and Gibson and they have the type of success that they're capable of then this team will be watchable. This current rotation is FAR from watchable. Deduno should be interesting as well.

[Guest USAFChief]

"It won't take a stellar team to reverse the trend of falling attendance. It will simply take a watchable team." If by "watchable" you mean they win more than they lose, I agree. If by "watchable" you mean lose 90+ games, but do it with young players manning many positions, I disagree. Most fans do not spend part of every day thinking about the Twins, checking Twins Daily, and pouring over minor league stats and reports. Most fans are casual fans. They'll follow the Twins--spend time and money--when they're relevant. Most fans don't care about 2016 in 2013. Another season of 90+ losses is going to have an effect on attendance, TV ratings, and everything associated with it.

[ThePuck]

Another season of 90+ losses is going to have an effect on attendance, TV ratings, and everything associated with it.

 

Exactly...like it did last year. Big % drop in attendance...and we'll see move of that this year

[jokin]

Exactly...like it did last year. Big % drop in attendance...and we'll see move of that this year

 

I can see it already happening. Plenty of walk-up seats available for purchase on opening day. Season ticket sales way down. Media interest cratering is a direct reflection on where the local sports meida producers think the sports consumer interest is at. To wit, today might be the first game at Target Field where the "announced" crowd could be under 30,000 when the season still "matters" (Of course the actual crowd will probably be closer to 20,000).

[ThePuck]

I can see it already happening. Plenty of walk-up seats available for purchase on opening day. Season ticket sales way down. Media interest cratering is a direct reflection on where the local sports meida producers think the sports consumer interest is at. To wit, today might be the first game at Target Field where the "announced" crowd could be under 30,000 when the season still "matters" (Of course the actual crowd will probably be closer to 20,000).

 

Heck, like 2 days before opening day there were tickets available right behind home plate, like 13 rows back...on the regular Twins MLB site even. I don't think that would have been possible the first two years...maybe last year, but not sure.

[ashbury]

Another season of 90+ losses is going to have an effect on attendance, TV ratings, and everything associated with it.

 

Yes, and there seems to be a split of opinion whether this would be a good outcome, to punish ownership, or a bad outcome, harmful to the team's long term hopes. A related split was whether there was any value in spending more in 2013 when the only hope would be to improve the team's results closer to .500. It's easy for us armchair GMs to crave one more top-5 draft pick next year, and for fans to take the "teach 'em a lesson" approach to revenue, but I am honestly surprised Terry Ryan as an actual GM wasn't more aggressive in the FA market to reduce the chances of 90 losses.

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan and St. Peter are convinced this is a competitive team. Their words, not mine. So, I think Ryan thinks he was "aggressive" in FA.

[ThePuck]

Ryan and St. Peter are convinced this is a competitive team. Their words, not mine. So, I think Ryan thinks he was "aggressive" in FA.

 

How do we know they are lying? Their lips are moving...

[ThePuck]

It's the same as any other product being provided. If I go to a nice restaurant and the food and service are bad, I may blow it off as a bad night. If I come back another time or two, and it's the same, I'm not going to keep spending my money on it till I hear things have changed...which will likely result in a turnover of management and personnel.

 

The only way to voice our concerns is through our pocketbooks...since money is all the Twins management cares about.

[Mike Sixel]

I swear thepuck and I are not the same person.....really.

[Nick Nelson]

If by "watchable" you mean they win more than they lose, I agree. If by "watchable" you mean lose 90+ games, but do it with young players manning many positions, I disagree.

By watchable I mean they're not as dreadfully horrible as they were the last two years, which probably means losing less than 90 games. But overall, the point was that they can win 75-80 games and have the season be considered a relative success. That's good news, especially for the manager whose job is on the line.

 

But it also means that if they fail to meet their modest expectation (which I'd say is any meaingful degree of improvement), it'll really be time for the hammer to drop.

 

It's the same as any other product being provided. If I go to a nice restaurant and the food and service are bad, I may blow it off as a bad night. If I come back another time or two, and it's the same, I'm not going to keep spending my money on it till I hear things have changed...which will likely result in a turnover of management and personnel.

 

The only way to voice our concerns is through our pocketbooks...since money is all the Twins management cares about.

 

This is a bit of a slippery analogy. Food and service are key parts of the dining experience for everyone. Meanwhile, people have varying priorities when they go out to a ballgame. Many casual fans go for the environment, the nice weather, the food and the beer. Wins are just a nice bonus. For others, being able to go see a legitimate and competitive team is paramount.

 

I think most casual fans probably fall in the former category, and I doubt the Twins will have trouble getting people to come out to their amazing ballpark once this state thaws out. The problem is (to your point) that they'll have a hard time getting people to come back. It gets more and more difficult to convince any fan, casual or otherwise, to attend games in August when they've already been out to one or two and the crummy team is 15 games out of first place.

[ThePuck]

By watchable I mean they're not as dreadfully horrible as they were the last two years, which probably means losing less than 90 games. But overall, the point was that they can win 75-80 games and have the season be considered a relative success. That's good news, especially for the manager whose job is on the line.

 

But it also means that if they fail to meet their modest expectation (which I'd say is any meaingful degree improvement), it'll really be time for the hammer to drop.

 

 

 

This is a bit of a slippery analogy. Food and service are key parts of the dining experience for everyone. Meanwhile, people have varying priorities when they go out to a ballgame. Many casual fans go for the environment, the nice weather, the food and the beer. Wins are just a nice bonus. For others, being able to go see a legitimate and competitive team is paramount.

 

I think most casual fans probably fall in the former category, and I doubt the Twins will have trouble getting people to come out to their amazing ballpark once this state thaws out. The problem is that they'll have a hard time getting people to come back. It gets more and more difficult to convince any fan, casual or otherwise, to attend games in August when they've already been out to one or two and the crummy team is 15 games out of first place.

 

well, we've already seen a good percentage drop in attendance from 2011 to 2012. I imagine it'll be somewhat similar this year.

 

Additionally, from what I've heard (and correct me if I'm wrong) but this year there was a decent drop in season ticket sales as well. We have another year like the last two, you don't think that trend will continue?

 

It seems it's already affecting things...yes, many fans won't care one way or another...the park will never truly be empty, but the dropoffs are pretty steep already, percentage-wise, and the new stadium smell still lingers in the air...

[Mike Sixel]

And I think it would have been worse w/o the All Star game incentive......that's one thing keeping season ticket sales up, imo. As for going fo the beer, not at those prices.

[ThePuck]

And I think it would have been worse w/o the All Star game incentive......that's one thing keeping season ticket sales up, imo. As for going fo the beer, not at those prices.

 

exactly...

[Guest USAFChief]

" Many casual fans go for the environment, the nice weather, the food and the beer. Wins are just a nice bonus." I think you have that backwards. I think most casual fans go because of the "buzz." New stadium, place to be, it's on the news, people talking about it at work. They want to be part of it. OR Winning team, excitement, it's on the news, people talking about it at work. They want to be part of it. Remove the new stadium, remove the winning team, remove the buzz, and most casual fans tune out. You and I care about 2016--although in my case, it's way down my list of priorities--and might find reasons to continue to invest time and money, but I don't think most casual fans do. And I don't think expectations have anything to do with it. I don't think 75 wins is going to generate any buzz, or lure many casual fans to the park or get them to watch for 3 hours every night on FSN.

[Ultima Ratio]

This is a bit of a slippery analogy. Food and service are key parts of the dining experience for everyone. Meanwhile, people have varying priorities when they go out to a ballgame. Many casual fans go for the environment, the nice weather, the food and the beer. Wins are just a nice bonus. For others, being able to go see a legitimate and competitive team is paramount.

 

This sounds plausible, but as we've been edified in the thread about why we watch baseball, it is illusory. Attendance and viewership will not drop (and cannot drop) because the only reason people care about baseball is due to an emotional affinity in the subconscious mind which motivates action and informs prejudices/beliefs. It's called deterministic material monism. It's not cool.

[Mike Sixel]

Wait, there's a name for caring about something that actually has no real effect on me? Is there research on why people care about sports teams? I mean, I own no stock, and I know none of the people. There is no logical reason for me to care. The best reason I can think of is that it gives me something to talk about with others that care, and increases a sense of community. But it is kind of a waste of time and emotional energy, I think. I've eliminated most sports watching from my life, and am much happier.

[ashbury]

I swear thepuck and I are not the same person.....really.

 

I'm waiting to see thepuck's take on this, before forming my own opinion.

[ThePuck]

I'm waiting to see thepuck's take on this, before forming my own opinion.

 

That's funny :-)

[ThePuck]

Wait, there's a name for caring about something that actually has no real effect on me? Is there research on why people care about sports teams? I mean, I own no stock, and I know none of the people. There is no logical reason for me to care. The best reason I can think of is that it gives me something to talk about with others that care, and increases a sense of community. But it is kind of a waste of time and emotional energy, I think. I've eliminated most sports watching from my life, and am much happier.

 

Baseball is the only sport I'll watch no matter who the teams are. For NFL or NCAA college football, I really only care about a couple teams. If they aren't playing, I can take it or leave it. Hockey is the same way. I don't even watch basketball...especially NBA...it's a shell of the game it used to be.

 

Baseball though, every time I went through Baltimore on my way to or from a deployment, I'd make sure I'd catch a game if the Orioles were in town. I'm not an Orioles fan and at no game that I've watched there were they playing any team I like, but I didn't care. Good times.

[ashbury]

Baseball is the only sport I'll watch no matter who the teams are.

 

This belongs in that other thread yesterday, but baseball is also the sport that I'll enjoy watching at just about any level of skill. Small-time HS football makes me cringe when a good runner just walks by a smaller defender and goes for an easy touchdown, likewise when a middle-school basketball center is a man among boys, but to me it's not unpleasant to watch a kid with a great fastball mow down his opponents, or to see a different kid launch a moonshot against a skinny pitcher who hasn't got facial hair yet. Fans of other sports will differ, naturally.

[jokin]

I can see it already happening. Plenty of walk-up seats available for purchase on opening day. Season ticket sales way down. Media interest cratering is a direct reflection on where the local sports meida producers think the sports consumer interest is at. To wit, today might be the first game at Target Field where the "announced" crowd could be under 30,000 when the season still "matters" (Of course the actual crowd will probably be closer to 20,000).

 

22900 "announced" and the place looked empty. (More "Twins Way" wins like today might staunch the blood-letting, but at this point, a 20% drop in attendance down to ~2.25M seems likely)

[Thrylos]

I think that the title premise:

 

"Low Expectations Are Easy to Exceed"

 

is totally spot on. The Twins have been having low expectations since the strike (that is '94) and the (non-) contraction (that is 2001). At that point having a "home team" was exceeding expectations. So the mediocrity of the 2000s has been exaggerated and exalted (it is amazing to win a couple division titles here and there and does not matter what happens afterwards, compared to not having a team). That caused a lot of problems and added a lot of teflon to the ones who have been exposed the last 2 seasons... And still there are Twins' fans and media that defend Gardenhire and his buddies and Ryan. Based on those low expectations.

 

Unless someone is going to set the bar high as far as expectations go, this team will never excel. If players like Mike Cuddyer were fine with the loss in game 163 at the Cell and laughing afterwords at the local media, saying that "there is always next year", while avoided contact at the plate that would have tied the game (but might had messed up his hair), and this is fine with the media and the fans (who loved Cuddyer), nothing will change.

 

Yes it is all about expectations.

[old nurse]

" Many casual fans go for the environment, the nice weather, the food and the beer. Wins are just a nice bonus." I think you have that backwards. I think most casual fans go because of the "buzz." New stadium, place to be, it's on the news, people talking about it at work. They want to be part of it. OR Winning team, excitement, it's on the news, people talking about it at work. They want to be part of it. Remove the new stadium, remove the winning team, remove the buzz, and most casual fans tune out. You and I care about 2016--although in my case, it's way down my list of priorities--and might find reasons to continue to invest time and money, but I don't think most casual fans do. And I don't think expectations have anything to do with it. I don't think 75 wins is going to generate any buzz, or lure many casual fans to the park or get them to watch for 3 hours every night on FSN.

The dome was not sold out when they were winning, so it was not simply the winning that drew the fans to Target field.