Article: Low Expectations Are Easy to Exceed

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1512-Low-Expectations-Are-Easy-to-Exceed

[TwinVike61]

As others have noted it depends on how you define "expectations". Most of us agree it's not win/loss so much as caliber of play, excitement, development of the young core, etc, that will generate the expectation that this team is improving and fun to watch/follow even if they are not currently contending.

[ashbury]

It depends on why they are watchable. If because of players who will likely still be with the team in 2015, then people will feel genuine interest. If it is clear that the 30-somethings were providing the steam and the youngsters didn't show growth, not so much. [Edit: clicked on the article too soon and responded too slowly, kind of a redundant response but I'll leave it.]

[glunn]

If some of the young players can develop and the Twins can win 69 games this season then I will be happy.

[LastOnePicked]

Not sure I agree that this will be the last time expectations will be low for awhile. With clearly increased competition in the AL Central (finally), it may be possible that the 2013 Twins will be a better team over 2012, but with a worse record to show for it. On the plus side, when the team is ready to compete, they won't be sailing through a weak division -- and they might emerge stronger for having had to do more to earn a division pennant. But the earliest I'd look for this would be 2017.

[cmathewson]

I think fans are willing (maybe a bit too willing) to write off 2013. What must happen this year is a sense that the team has made significant progress towards contending (not just competing) in 2014. If the following players demonstrate that they can become key players in 2014, I think the 2013 record will be largely overlooked:

 

Parmelee

Plouffe

Dozier

Hicks

Arcia

Gibson

Meyer

Tonkin

 

Of course, some of those players might not be ready to be key pieces in the core. But they are the kind of players who need to be able to at least contribute to a core of the following players:

 

Mauer

Willingham

Doumit

Worley

Diamond

Perkins

Burton

Fien

Duensing

 

Noticeably absent from those two lists is a shortstop who can be a competent major leaguer. Either Florimon or Escobar significantly exceed their projections or Ryan goes out and gets a quality major league shortstop for 2014. One way or another, we will have clarity on that position at the end of the year. Having only one major hole going into the offseason will give fans confidence that Ryan can build a contender for 2014.

[Top Gun]

You will find out you can't keep fooling the people.

[tjsyam921]

Parmelee and Plouffe are definitely going to have to drive in more runs and have better at bats with people on base.

[big dog]

Agreed, even though the record is likely to be bad there is still a lot of potential to watch for. When the Twins were bad with no chance of becoming better soon...those days were ugly.

[ThePuck]

'What must happen this year is a sense that the team has made significant progress towards contending (not just competing) in 2014.'

 

I don't see how we can look at things now...realistically project next year and think things will be much different than this year. Even if Arcia and a couple other make it here, there's still the learning curve. 2014 is gonna be another bridge year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

'What must happen this year is a sense that the team has made significant progress towards contending (not just competing) in 2014.'

 

I don't see how we can look at things now...realistically project next year and think things will be much different than this year. Even if Arcia and a couple other make it here, there's still the learning curve. 2014 is gonna be another bridge year.

 

A bridge year but probably a better year. Gibson should be partway through his second season and Meyer may be in the starting rotation after a September call-up. Hicks will also be in his second season (and Arcia will probably have ML at-bats by the end of the 2013 season).

 

I wouldn't expect to see a world-beater in 2014 but if this team isn't thinking about a low-80s win total, I'd consider that a pretty big disappointment.

[snepp]

I wouldn't expect to see a world-beater in 2014 but if this team isn't thinking about a low-80s win total, I'd consider that a pretty big disappointment.

 

Hopefully without punting free agency yet again, with even more money to spend.

[ThePuck]

A bridge year but probably a better year. Gibson should be partway through his second season and Meyer may be in the starting rotation after a September call-up. Hicks will also be in his second season (and Arcia will probably have ML at-bats by the end of the 2013 season).

 

I wouldn't expect to see a world-beater in 2014 but if this team isn't thinking about a low-80s win total, I'd consider that a pretty big disappointment.

 

yeah, I just can't see low-80s in 2014...I mean even if everything you say happens, and its' all possible, it's still only their first year in the bigs. The adjustment, the ups and downs, but that's another reason why I want Hicks up ll year. He can get that out of the way and that's one less guy we'll have to have dealing with that next year and the year after.

 

Just my opinion.

[ThePuck]

Hopefully without punting free agency yet again, with even more money to spend.

 

I don't even think about that possibility. We're a scrap heap club when it comes to FA and I don't think that ever changes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

yeah, I just can't see low-80s in 2014...I mean even if everything you say happens, and its' all possible, it's still only their first year in the bigs. The adjustment, the ups and downs, but that's another reason why I want Hicks up ll year. He can get that out of the way and that's one less guy we'll have to have dealing with that next year and the year after.

 

Just my opinion.

 

But in some cases, it won't be their first year in the bigs. Most of those guys should see ML time in 2013.

 

Anyway, hard to predict such things. So questions in 2013 about how Plouffe and Parmelee and Hicks do, much less how the team will perform in 2014...

[Highabove]

I believe a review of the 81-82 Twins is in order.

Please be my Guest.

1982 Minnesota Twins Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

 

1983 Minnesota Twins Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

[Mike Sixel]

Um, most good FAs have already been signed by their teams.....the pickings will be even more slim next year, so don't count on any FA signings that excite you at all. Not to mention that Ryan has never once, even when he has $30MM laying around lining the org's pockest, spent money. I have no idea why anyone thinks it will ever be different.

 

I hope fans stay away in droves. I hope no one buys season tickets in 2014. I hope the Twins' ownership gets what they deserve, for taking our money and not even trying to put a good product on the field.

 

And, I think ambivalent is worse than angry. At least angry people care.

[ThePuck]

But in some cases, it won't be their first year in the bigs. Most of those guys should see ML time in 2013.

 

Anyway, hard to predict such things. So questions in 2013 about how Plouffe and Parmelee and Hicks do, much less how the team will perform in 2014...

 

Gibson sure, but cups of coffee in September for Meyer and Arcia don't really work towards what I'm talking about. I'm glad you're optimistic though...very cool. I'd LOVE, absolutely LOVE to be wrong about 2014.

[big dog]

For kicks, check out your 1981 Minnesota Twins:

Starting lineup and OPS+, according to Baseball-reference

C, Sal Butera, 76

1b, Danny Goodwin, 74

2b, Rob Wilfong, 81

SS, Roy Smalley, 130 (but injured a lot of the year)

3b, John Castino, 95

LF, Gary Ward, 93

CF, Mickey Hatcher, 78 (probably didn't make up for it with his defense, either)

RF, Dave Engle, 97

DH, Glenn Adams, 57

 

Other players getting over 100 ABs

Hosken Powell, 72

Pete Mackanin, 63

Ron Jackson, 93

Butch Wynegar, 71

Rick Sofield, 23

Sofield was complaining about playing time and said there were other teams that wanted him. The manager (Johnny Goryl) said that the only teams that wanted him were the Army, Navy, and Marines.

 

The pitching wasn't bad, compared to the hitting. Starting pitchers were Albert Williams, Pete Redfern, Fernando Arroyo, Jerry Koosman, Roger Erickson, and Brad Havens. All had ERA+ between 95 and 111. WHIP ranged from 1.28 to 1.41. Best pitcher was Havens, with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.28.

 

Relievers? Doug Corbett, ERA+ of 155. John Verhoeven was second at 100, and was out of the league the next year.

 

Hrbek, Gaetti, and Laudner all had cups of coffee late in the year. I don't think anyone expected a lot from Gaetti and Laudner. There was hope...but not much.

 

1981 Minnesota Twins Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

 

The only players with significant ABs in 1981 who were there in 1982 were Castino and Ward, with Hatcher, Engle, and Butera seeing large dropoffs in playing time. Wynegar and Smalley were both traded early in the year. Havens and Williams returned as starters, joined by Jack O'Connor. Erickson, Corbett, Arroyo and Redfern played lesser roles.

 

Nearly a complete turnover of the roster, richly deserved.

[Halsey Hall]

Parmelee and Plouffe are definitely going to have to drive in more runs and have better at bats with people on base.

 

Totally agree here. I'm down on Plouffe big time and could see a change coming if there's a short string.

[jay]

Excellent view, Nick. Nice work.

 

With all the young guys, it'd be hard to not have at least one breakout story at least to the level of Scotty Diamond last year.

[jay]

Parmelee and Plouffe are definitely going to have to drive in more runs and have better at bats with people on base.

 

Let's not get caught up in 1 at-bat, in the first game of the year.

 

#samplesizewarning

[Brock Beauchamp]

Totally agree here. I'm down on Plouffe big time and could see a change coming if there's a short string.

 

Who will replace them? It's a legitimate question. In a year where the Twins are obviously kicking the can down the road, what point is there to replacing Plouffe and/or Parmelee with another player, excepting Oswaldo Arcia?

[jokin]

Hopefully without punting free agency yet again, with even more money to spend.

 

Yeah, it all sounds like a mouthwateringly-good scenario to the average mid-size franchise GM, but why do I feel like Terry Ryan, as the veritable Kid-in-the-Candy-Store, will leave said establishment with only Sourballs and Laffy Taffy?

[jokin]

Um, most good FAs have already been signed by their teams.....the pickings will be even more slim next year, so don't count on any FA signings that excite you at all. Not to mention that Ryan has never once, even when he has $30MM laying around lining the org's pockest, spent money. I have no idea why anyone thinks it will ever be different.

 

I hope fans stay away in droves. I hope no one buys season tickets in 2014. I hope the Twins' ownership gets what they deserve, for taking our money and not even trying to put a good product on the field.

 

And, I think ambivalent is worse than angry. At least angry people care.

 

Under this scenario, you can start saying "Hello" to articles linked to "anonymous sources" relating talk about the Charlotte/Nashville/San Antonio/Portland Twins

[jay]

Yeah, it all sounds like a mouthwateringly-good scenario to the average mid-size franchise GM, but why do I feel like Terry Ryan, as the veritable Kid-in-the-Candy-Store, will leave said establishment with only Sourballs and Laffy Taffy?

 

Seeing as those two are my favorites... I have no choice but to assume that you mean Josh Johnson and Nelson Cruz.

[jokin]

Seeing as those two are my favorites... I have no choice but to assume that you mean Josh Johnson and Nelson Cruz.

 

Somehow, I think that JJ is going to priced more like Godiva or Pierre Marcolini than Laffy Taffy.

 

When you think Laffy Taffy, think Terry Tiffee.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hey, I like Laffy Taffy.

 

Terry Tiffee, not so much.

[Mike Sixel]

If JJ is good, does anyone think he is not re-signed by his current team? if he's hurt and bad, ya, then I can see the Twins signing him. Every team gets $25MM more next year, for free. I'd bet most good players are locked up by their current teams. It is a good time to have guys ready for their first contract extension, or last one.

[jay]

When you think Laffy Taffy, think Terry Tiffee.

 

I will do NO such thing, good sir! I'd put a bin of Laffy Taffy right up there next to the pouch of Big League Chew and the sunnies. Plus, where do you think they get all their dugout humor from??