2022 Offseason Twins Plan: sign Story and Stroman

[mitcho8]

 

My plan for 2022 is about building toward 2023 and beyond. I just don’t think this team can get back to contention in one offseason, given the extensive (and very expensive) holes on the roster. A lot of the prospects that I’m hoping will be part of the future had lost or limited seasons in 2021 so I want to hit the reset button for those guys and I want to give extended chances to players who need to make good or else. All that means is that I’m going to make a few splashy moves, but I’m also leaving some flexibility for this season and beyond. I’m signing or extending four guys to multi year contracts, signing three guys to one year deals, offering arbitration to seven guys, and trading three team-controlled guys for pitching.

Multi Year Deals

CF - Byron Buxton - My first priority is extending Buxton. No one knows what salary the two sides would agree on, so I picked $15mil. 

SS - Trevor Story - I'm signing one of the Big 5 SS on the market. I choose Story. His home/road splits and downturn in 2021 is a little worrying, but I’m skeptical Correa or Seager would come here. Baez would be my second choice, then Semien. I’m less enthused about Semien because of his age.

SP - Marcus Stroman - I'm signing someone (Stroman) from the top tier of free agent SP for the top spot. I'm not terribly interested in old guys, like Scherzer or Verlander, or higher injury risks, like Rodon, Syndergaard, and maybe Kershaw (also skeptical about him leaving LA). 

SP - Eduardo Rodtriguez - I'm asking Mr. Pohlad very nicely to stretch the budget a bit so we can bring in Eduardo Rodriguez. Jon Gray would also be a good option here.

One Year Deals

SP - Carlos Martinez - Martinez’s recent struggles are worrisome, but at the very least he can keep the spot warm while someone in St. Paul makes the case for himself.

OF - Corey Dickerson - I’m bringing in a veteran OF to keep the position warm for Larnach/Celestino/Wallner/Whoever.

RP - Ryan Tepera - I wanted to add a mid-priced veteran to the mix, and I went with Tepera.

Arbitration

I’m offering arbitration to Minaya, Theilbar, Rogers, Refsnyder, Garver, and Arraez.

Trades

I’m trading for pitching. I’ve had some inspiration from Twins Daily, MLB Trade Rumors, and some other places. I like to lean on Baseball Trade Values but some of the values seem a little off at the moment and obviously a player’s availability and a trade partner’s suitability are tough to gauge, so like all information gleaned from the internet, I trust all of it and I trust none of it. I liked the idea put forth in the Handbook about sending hitters to Miami for Max Meyer. It seems a little strange that he’d be available, and very strange that his trade value is only a little higher than Max Kepler’s; I get that Kepler is an established player, but Meyer was the 3rd overall pick in 2020 and spent 2021 thriving in the high minors. Anyway, I’m sending Kepler and Jeffers to Miami for Meyer. According to Baseball Trade Values it’s rejected as a “Major Overpay”, but it seems about right to me. If not, they can throw in a guy to even it out. Meyer will start the season in St. Paul but will be in the major league mix soon. 

I'm trading Donaldson for a bucket of balls, I mean, relief prospects, and kicking in $7mil for each of his remaining years. I'd pull the trigger on the deal laid out in the Offseason Handbook. I’ll miss his bat but I want to put the money to other uses. 

Notes

Arraez takes over as more or less the everyday 3B, and Miranda will be in play sooner rather than later. Gordon is the backup shortstop/utility man and I’m praying that Garver holds up so Rortvedt doesn’t have to play more than twice per week.

I've penciled in Ober and Ryan for the last two rotation spots. As far as SP depth goes, Randy Dobnak is heading the rotation in St. Paul, along with Smeltzer, Barnes, and company. Hopefully the top pitching prospects can come back healthy this year, and at least a few will debut. In the bullpen, it’s mostly status quo. The last two spots are left for the Minneapolis-St. Paul shuttle of prospects, minor league free agent signings, and waiver claims.

Anyway, that’s my plan. What say you?

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, mitcho8 said:

 

My plan for 2022 is about building toward 2023 and beyond. I just don’t think this team can get back to contention in one offseason, given the extensive (and very expensive) holes on the roster. A lot of the prospects that I’m hoping will be part of the future had lost or limited seasons in 2021 so I want to hit the reset button for those guys and I want to give extended chances to players who need to make good or else. All that means is that I’m going to make a few splashy moves, but I’m also leaving some flexibility for this season and beyond. I’m signing or extending four guys to multi year contracts, signing three guys to one year deals, offering arbitration to seven guys, and trading three team-controlled guys for pitching.

Multi Year Deals

CF - Byron Buxton - My first priority is extending Buxton. No one knows what salary the two sides would agree on, so I picked $15mil. 

SS - Trevor Story - I'm signing one of the Big 5 SS on the market. I choose Story. His home/road splits and downturn in 2021 is a little worrying, but I’m skeptical Correa or Seager would come here. Baez would be my second choice, then Semien. I’m less enthused about Semien because of his age.

SP - Marcus Stroman - I'm signing someone (Stroman) from the top tier of free agent SP for the top spot. I'm not terribly interested in old guys, like Scherzer or Verlander, or higher injury risks, like Rodon, Syndergaard, and maybe Kershaw (also skeptical about him leaving LA). 

SP - Eduardo Rodtriguez - I'm asking Mr. Pohlad very nicely to stretch the budget a bit so we can bring in Eduardo Rodriguez. Jon Gray would also be a good option here.

One Year Deals

SP - Carlos Martinez - Martinez’s recent struggles are worrisome, but at the very least he can keep the spot warm while someone in St. Paul makes the case for himself.

OF - Corey Dickerson - I’m bringing in a veteran OF to keep the position warm for Larnach/Celestino/Wallner/Whoever.

RP - Ryan Tepera - I wanted to add a mid-priced veteran to the mix, and I went with Tepera.

Arbitration

I’m offering arbitration to Minaya, Theilbar, Rogers, Refsnyder, Garver, and Arraez.

Trades

I’m trading for pitching. I’ve had some inspiration from Twins Daily, MLB Trade Rumors, and some other places. I like to lean on Baseball Trade Values but some of the values seem a little off at the moment and obviously a player’s availability and a trade partner’s suitability are tough to gauge, so like all information gleaned from the internet, I trust all of it and I trust none of it. I liked the idea put forth in the Handbook about sending hitters to Miami for Max Meyer. It seems a little strange that he’d be available, and very strange that his trade value is only a little higher than Max Kepler’s; I get that Kepler is an established player, but Meyer was the 3rd overall pick in 2020 and spent 2021 thriving in the high minors. Anyway, I’m sending Kepler and Jeffers to Miami for Meyer. According to Baseball Trade Values it’s rejected as a “Major Overpay”, but it seems about right to me. If not, they can throw in a guy to even it out. Meyer will start the season in St. Paul but will be in the major league mix soon. 

I'm trading Donaldson for a bucket of balls, I mean, relief prospects, and kicking in $7mil for each of his remaining years. I'd pull the trigger on the deal laid out in the Offseason Handbook. I’ll miss his bat but I want to put the money to other uses. 

Notes

Arraez takes over as more or less the everyday 3B, and Miranda will be in play sooner rather than later. Gordon is the backup shortstop/utility man and I’m praying that Garver holds up so Rortvedt doesn’t have to play more than twice per week.

I've penciled in Ober and Ryan for the last two rotation spots. As far as SP depth goes, Randy Dobnak is heading the rotation in St. Paul, along with Smeltzer, Barnes, and company. Hopefully the top pitching prospects can come back healthy this year, and at least a few will debut. In the bullpen, it’s mostly status quo. The last two spots are left for the Minneapolis-St. Paul shuttle of prospects, minor league free agent signings, and waiver claims.

Anyway, that’s my plan. What say you

Careful.  I nearly got laughed off here at the deadline for suggesting that we should be buyers and go get Story.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I like your selection, Mitcho8. You put a lot of thought into it. I could get behind it. I like that you went and signed Buxton, w/o Buxton we can kiss the Twins good-bye. You got SP, RP and Story (he's a stud). I believe MIA might not want to give up Meyers up, they'd prefer give up an established pitcher than a high prospect. IMO Kepler and Jeffers is an well over pay to get Meyers but that is probably what it takes to pry him loose. 

I'd love to bring Meyers home but I'd rather go after MIA's more established pitchers so we can use more players and in the short term we can see faster results. I'd try to trade as many redundant players as possible and players we don't need for most of our high end needs. Because #1 it reduces the 40 man crunch therefore not losing much needed undeveloped prospects and #2 salaries from traded players are much lower than FAs, which makes it easier to make budget.  I like Arraez but he's a liability both defensively and on the base paths and a good defensive team can shut him down offensively because of his lack of speed and power. His stock has been dropping but he still has some pretty good trade value. The longer we keep him the more worthless he becomes both on the field and in trade value. 

Defensively we're taking a hit even with Story, especially in the OF w/o Kepler. I hope Buxton can play at least 140 games but the odds says he won't, so we need a competent CF back up. I'd be nice if we had Akil Baddo but we don't, I don't think Celestino is quite ready so we have nobody. Through out the last few years this is the area we've lost most of our games. Kiriloff is better served at 1B and I'd go after a CF that can hit for average to back up Buxton rather than getting Dickerson.

I really like your budget but I wanted to express my ways to tweak it. Good job.

[TopGunn#22]

Very nice job.  To land Story as well as a couple of the pitchers you did is great "strategerism."    

Where I differ is that I'm keeping Kepler and Donaldson (and I realize this could cost me Story) and I'm going to seriously look at trading Arraez, Jeffers and Larnach.  I think they are our best trade chips and we need a LOT to fill out our starting rotation.  If in keeping Donaldson and Kepler and still going after Story I would consider a FA Starter like Eduardo Rodriguez and then using my trade "capital" on acquiring other starters.  Once again, I'm confused as to who "Knebe" is.  Is this supposed to be Cory Knebel who pitched for the Dodgers this past season ?  If so, I'd love to acquire him and $5 seems like it would fit the budget, although he might end up costing a bit more. 

[mitcho8]

@TopGunn#22Yeah, I assumed that was Knebel. There are quite a few guys listed there at $4-6 mil that I would go for.

[mitcho8]

@dxpavelka

On 10/29/2021 at 5:41 PM, dxpavelka said:

Careful.  I nearly got laughed off here at the deadline for suggesting that we should be buyers and go get Story.

 

I don't really want to assume Lewis will be ready to take over at SS and pass on this crop of shortstops. He's had 148 plate appearances above single A, it was two years ago, it didn't go great, and since then he tore his ACL. If necessary Story can change positions to make room for Lewis (or Palacios or Javier for that matter).

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 10/29/2021 at 5:41 PM, dxpavelka said:

Careful.  I nearly got laughed off here at the deadline for suggesting that we should be buyers and go get Story.

 

A borderline 90 loss team trading for a pending free agent is a lot different than signing said free agent that off-season. 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

A borderline 90 loss team trading for a pending free agent is a lot different than signing said free agent that off-season. 

"Make the RIGHT moves and you never know what might happen."  --Eddie Rosario

[TheLeviathan]

If Baseball Trade Values thinks Max Kepler is worth Meyer straight up.....I think we ought to stop referencing that site.  Or at least heap some serious salt on it.

[mitcho8]

6 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

If Baseball Trade Values thinks Max Kepler is worth Meyer straight up.....I think we ought to stop referencing that site.  Or at least heap some serious salt on it.

It's actually a decent gap. Meyer is 28, Kepler is 23.6.

[nicksaviking]

On 10/30/2021 at 10:46 PM, dxpavelka said:

"Make the RIGHT moves and you never know what might happen."  --Eddie Rosario

I don't see that as an actual quote by Eddie Rosario, nor do I see how it's relevant. The Twins were 18 games out at the trade deadline, anyone trading FOR rental players should have been fired on the spot.

And that doesn't even take into account that the Rockies made it clear that they weren't going to sell any of their big players. Which should have gotten all of them fired too.

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't see that as an actual quote by Eddie Rosario, nor do I see how it's relevant. The Twins were 18 games out at the trade deadline, anyone trading FOR rental players should have been fired on the spot.

And that doesn't even take into account that the Rockies made it clear that they weren't going to sell any of their big players. Which should have gotten all of them fired too.

Remember when we were sellers in 2017 & 2018?  Three and four years ago and we had ONE player acquired in those moves who contributed this year--with a NEGATIVE WAR.  Tell me how selling works.

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Remember when we were sellers in 2017 & 2018?  Three and four years ago and we had ONE player acquired in those moves who contributed this year--with a NEGATIVE WAR.  Tell me how selling works.

Well, to keep things a bit more recent, they traded a guy this July (when you claim they should have been buying) for a guy who was contributing enormously to the team by September.

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Well, to keep things a bit more recent, they traded a guy this July (when you claim they should have been buying) for a guy who was contributing enormously to the team by September.

Doesn't change what they got (or didn't get) 3 and 4 years ago.   Not to mention we got that guy for a 41 year old guy.  Didn't give up a future closer.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Doesn't change what they got (or didn't get) 3 and 4 years ago.   Not to mention we got that guy for a 41 year old guy.  Didn't give up a future closer.

 

I’m sorry but your argument is wildly inconsistent. One moment it’s “tell me how selling works” and “should have acquired Story at the deadline”, the next you’re seemingly agreeing that trading Nelson Cruz was a good call. 

[dxpavelka]

On 11/3/2021 at 7:58 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I’m sorry but your argument is wildly inconsistent. One moment it’s “tell me how selling works” and “should have acquired Story at the deadline”, the next you’re seemingly agreeing that trading Nelson Cruz was a good call. 

My take was (is) that if you're going to move someone the 41 year old guy would be the guy to move.