Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They picked the wrong pitcher with Happ. Several pitchers signed after Happ, including Rich Hill who had been successful with the team in 2020. 

There are 5 shortstops who will be pursued heavily. The Yankees are going to sign one of them, probably Correa. The Dodgers will sign one, probably Seager. The Phillies are also in the market for a shortstop and can outbid the Twins. Most of them also have a QO attached and the last thing the Twins should be doing is giving away draft picks in the upcoming draft. That means it's sign Javier Baez or hunt for bargains.

Losing a third round pick to solidify SS for half a decade seems like a pretty reasonable outcome to me.  And that's the WORST case scenario.

[Major League Ready]

On 10/16/2021 at 1:00 PM, chpettit19 said:

It surprises me that so many people write these 5 off in favor of a "glove guy" at SS for 1 year followed by Lewis or Martin. Lewis and Martin aren't glove guys so if your goal is a superior fielding SS then waiting for Lewis or Martin is a terrible plan. Semien moved off SS in deference to the Blue Jays incumbent super-star-to-be SS, not because he couldn't field the position. He was in the running for a gold glove his last 2 years in Oakland. Correa is maybe the front runner for the gold glove this year. Story has long been considered a plus glove and Baez is widely considered one of the best all around gloves in the game.

I know the defensive metrics don't always match what the perception of players are, but, as someone who has worked for multiple analytics companies that put out these defensive stats, all I can say is to take them with a grain of salt. They are nothing like the offensive stats you see and are wildly unstable. Just look at the difference in what all the metrics say and you can see that we are not exactly close to being able to produce a singular number to represent a player's defensive capabilities. 

I've said it in other threads, but my plan for this offseason would revolve around extending Buxton and signing one of these 5 guys. Semien would be my last option due to his age, and Seager would be my second to last as he's the worst fielder and most likely to be bumped to 3B of this group. But I'd take any of the other 3 on 6 or 7 year deals while locking Buxton up for 6 or 7 years and talking to Polanco about an extension to get him to 6 or 7 years as well. I'd have the 3 most important defensive positions on the field (I know some say catcher, but with the downturn in stolen base attempts and soon to come robo-umps I don't see them as being that important anymore and would switch to trying to go after offensive weapons behind the plate) locked in with all star to super star talent and worry about the rest after that. 

The Twins need pitching, there's no doubt about it. But to build sustainable pitching you need to develop it. If they can't develop pitching they're screwed anyways. I think there's a mix of deals for Pineda types, Gray/DeScalfani types, and trades that the Twins can pull off to fill their rotation and also bring in one of these top SS options. They are going to be full of pre-arb players getting shots the next 2 years so they can afford Donaldson as well until his deal runs out. Not to mention Sano coming off the books after next year.

I'm one of the more pro-prospect people on these boards, but the Twins don't have a major league SS in their system right now. Miller is their only real hope and he's fresh out of HS so who really knows right now. Lewis and Martin aren't the answer. And I may be the biggest Lewis believer on this site (I think he'll be darn near ready by opening day). SS is no longer a glove first, any offense is a bonus position. There are super star hitters all over the majors at the SS position now. The Twins should go get one and have the middle of the diamond, and the top 3 spots in their lineup, locked in for the next 6 or 7 years. They have corner position prospects coming out of their ears and it's time to lock in the middle with elite players and let the young guys battle it out for the corners.

I highlighted your comment about developing SPs because so many of the plans / comments here require landing top free agent SPs which is a real longshot.  Of course, we could trade for pitching now like the Padres did last year.  These deals often fail to produce the desired result and the team can suffer for years as a result.  How much better would we look now if we had Ynoa and Gil and those players were traded for mediocre players.  We all know trading for impact SPs cost big.  The point here is that Twins should construct a plan focused on developing a pitching staff from within.  This does not preclude getting a very good SP in free agency this year but any plan should be focused on developing pitching.

You hit another nail on the head in regard to our lacking a major league SS in our system.  I was really hoping they would get a great SS prospect when they traded Berrios.  I am still hoping they can trade Arraez for a SS prospect that is blocked.  Of course, any other package they could put together for a top notch SS could work too.

[nicksaviking]

I honestly think the fit is pretty close to backwards from what is listed. Baez and Story strike out a heck of a lot. I'd sign them if the others are unavailable, but I'd be way more hesitant on those two. Heck, a month from now I might be completely against any kind of long term deal for Baez. He's definitely last on my wish list of this group; he's very inconsistent, likely because of the strikeout problem and his below average ability to get on base. His career .307 OBP seems destined to make a fanbase frustrated.

Edit: No need to ponder it over for a month. I've talked myself out of wanting anything to do with a big contract for Baez.

[TwinsAce]

Agree with USAFChief in that a QO doesn't matter if the Twins are able to sign a top pitcher or top SS (for more than a 1 year deal.) 

Also, not really sure why people are down on Story for defense (or Correa/Baez).  If I'm reading the various sites correctly, OAA is the only defensive stat that was down on Story.  It also seemed to be related to LHB and moving to his left, so I'm curious if shifting or lack of shifting hurt him this year.  I think it could based on the picture below?  But again, defensive stats are still not perfect.

To me, I'd be pushing Story's camp to find out if he is interested in the Twins and what they are looking for in $$ and years. If he's interested in a shorter prove-it deal of 1-3 years, I'd be all over that. At worse, he provides offense at a much higher level than Simmons and defense at a similar or slightly worse level. At best, he figures out non-Coors field hitting at an All-star level and provides gold glove defense. 

I would probably only worry about him if they are looking for $30+ million a year or 5+ years.  Which...there is still probably a 50/50 chance he gets one or both of those this offseason. 

One potential bonus of signing a top SS if that you could feel better about including a SS prospect in a trade for a pitcher.  Maybe we could trade Jermaine Palacios for Odorizzi? ? 

[twinfan]

Wasn't it great to see Eddie Rosario have a great game yesterday

While I like Simmonds, it looks like the team doesn't want him back. I would not touch Semien. He has had only 1 good year and someone will way overpay for him. I'd go big on Correa of those 5. I'd also take Baez over the others. But why the Red Sox just dumped Iglesias is beyond me unless he wasn't eligible for the post season. He'd be my most logical choice as a bridge to Lewis or ??? (though I am not a Lewis fan).

[Minny505]

On 10/16/2021 at 5:54 AM, jorgenswest said:

My fear is that they will wait out the market and Story will be the last remaining, They will end up overpaying for a player whose best days at SS are well behind him bringing a bat that has been boosted by a .972 career OPS at home vs. .752 on the road,

If it is for a one-year or even a sub-$20mil multiyear deal, this would be the best outcome. 

There is enough data and case studies out there now that we know the home/road splits for Rockies batters mean nothing when they put on a new uni. Almost every hitter, after leaving, plays to their cumulative numbers.

Vacillating between 5000 feet and 500 feet every few days makes adjusting to pitch movement almost impossible.  You can dig into the data and see that every consecutive game that is played at home or on the road sees offensive numbers of Rockies batters improve. 

On the flip side, most hitters from visiting teams do not see much of an increase in OPS in Colorado because of the short adjustment period. This has lead to the Rockies having a top 5 home record in MLB over the last half dozen years despite having a losing record overall. 

[Minny505]

4 hours ago, twinfan said:

But why the Red Sox just dumped Iglesias is beyond me unless he wasn't eligible for the post season.

Unless this changed in the past couple days, he is still on the Red Sox roster and cheering from the dugout.

And you are correct that he is ineligible to play on the playoffs as he was waived and acquired on the 3rd of September. Angels kind of did him dirty.

For the good of the player (which can help with FA signings), they should have kept him or waived him a few days earlier.

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, twinfan said:

Wasn't it great to see Eddie Rosario have a great game yesterday

While I like Simmonds, it looks like the team doesn't want him back. I would not touch Semien. He has had only 1 good year and someone will way overpay for him. I'd go big on Correa of those 5. I'd also take Baez over the others. But why the Red Sox just dumped Iglesias is beyond me unless he wasn't eligible for the post season. He'd be my most logical choice as a bridge to Lewis or ??? (though I am not a Lewis fan).

Semien has been better than Baez each of the past three years. Much, much better. Semein has actually been the best SS in the league by fWAR since 2019, which includes his subpar 2020 campaign.

Plus, Semien basically never misses a game.