Who Can the Twins Deal?

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I don't think anyone is suggesting moving both Garver and Polanco, I certainly wasn't. What I did say that both players held enough value to get a good return, perhaps enough to give the chance to contend next year, if a lot of other things go right. 

I looked back at my original post on this topic and it could be interpreted that " a couple of players" were both Polanco and Garver. I didn't intend to infer that. To me, trading a replaceable regular coming off a good year and signing the right free agents along with a lot of other things going right might be enough to get back to contention. 

I should have known you did not mean to trade both Polanco and Garver.  I still don’t see trading either of them as a get better fast strategy.  Teams interested in Polanco or Garver are contenders or teams looking for a missing piece to get them in contention.  Trading away assets that would help us get in contention is one step forward and one step back.  Anything is possible but I don’t see this happening.  They would have to find a team that was contending but so weak at 2B that they would trade away pitching.  That’s just not likely.  The teams who would want Polanco are going to trade future capital.  

The Cubs got one ML player (Davies) in the Darvish deal but he was a replacement level player.  The best prospects they got in that trade were 18 years old.  The Rays, in typical Ray’s fashion, got some immediate value for Snell in Francisco Mejia.  Nice role player but not an impact player.  They got Patino who already made his debut this season but he certainly was not a path to getting better immediately.  

Trading Garver or Polanco are strategies to rebuild and the players they would get back probably won’t impact the team for 2-3 years.  There are always exceptions.  We could find other Joe Ryan type deals (assuming he continues to perform) but the premise of trading to get better immediately assumes established MLB players so that’s not what we are talking about here.

I don’t see any scenario where getting back into contention nest year that does not require absolutely everything to go nearly perfectly.  In other words, any such scenario is low probability so I would not leverage the future in any strategy for 2022.  I would also prioritize some transitions in 2022.  Donaldson to Miranda. Larnach and Martin transitioned in if they show they are ready and maybe even Lewis.  Most importantly, get ML experience for our SP prospects that show they are ready in 2022.

There are a few strategies that provide a high probability of getting better quickly.  Contending? Probably not.  A good product and entertaining baseball, yes.

1)    There is a lot of free agent pitching available this year. Get some.
2)    Replacing Simmons with someone who can hit and play D.
3)    Decline Colome’s option and get a couple reliable free agent RPs
4)    Don’t give Cave any ABs
 

[KBJ1]

While getting Joe Ryan for Cruz was an absolute steal, Tampa is going to the series and the Twins are not.

Tampa has shown before they are not afraid to make the deals needed to win it all and then dump salaries the next year and rebuild. The Twins have been reluctant to trade prospects to get the final pieces needed to get to the finish line and wasted all their opportunities in the early "oughts" and 2019-21.

Trading Berrios for a SS prospect was insane when their supposed #1 prospect is a SS (Lewis). Berrios was signed for 2022 and imagined himself a Twin for life. Could have worked out a reasonable long term deal. We will likely be bidding on him in 2023 as we will still be looking for pitching then.

Sign Buxton!!

Keep Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Jeffers and the 3 or 4 serviceable bullpen arms we have.

Sano, while maddingly strikeout prone, is worth the 9M as DH/1B. Just compare it to the 23M we are paying Donaldson to see why. Maybe the new hitting coach can improve his contact rate.

Arraez is a one tool player - trade him

Bring up Miranda for 3B and Martin for SS, trade Lewis and Donaldson

Out of desperation, sign Pineda, they have no one else right now, spend on a top quality, high velocity starter and sign a closer. A top flite closer is the one reason they have not advanced in the playoffs since Joe Nathan.

I'd rather see Kiriloff in Left and Lanarch at 1B. Give anybody besides Cave a shot at the 5th outfield position.

They are in serious trouble with Maeda out and Berrios gone next year. Going to cost more money to replace Berrios than signing him would have. Martin had better be all he is cracked up to be at Short and as a hitter.

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I should have known you did not mean to trade both Polanco and Garver.  I still don’t see trading either of them as a get better fast strategy.  Teams interested in Polanco or Garver are contenders or teams looking for a missing piece to get them in contention.  Trading away assets that would help us get in contention is one step forward and one step back.  Anything is possible but I don’t see this happening.  They would have to find a team that was contending but so weak at 2B that they would trade away pitching.  That’s just not likely.  The teams who would want Polanco are going to trade future capital.  

The Cubs got one ML player (Davies) in the Darvish deal but he was a replacement level player.  The best prospects they got in that trade were 18 years old.  The Rays, in typical Ray’s fashion, got some immediate value for Snell in Francisco Mejia.  Nice role player but not an impact player.  They got Patino who made his debut this season but he certainly was not a path to getting better immediately.  

Trading Garver or Polanco are strategies to rebuild and the players they would get back probably won’t impact the team for 2-3 years.  There are always exceptions.  We could find other Joe Ryan type deals (assuming he continues to perform) but the premise of trading to get better immediately assumes established MLB players so that’s not what we are talking about here.

I don’t see any scenario where getting back into contention nest year that does not require absolutely everything to go nearly perfectly.  In other words, any such scenario is low probability so I would not leverage the future in any strategy for 2022.  I would also prioritize some transitions in 2022.  Donaldson to Miranda. Larnach and Martin transitioned in if they show they are ready and maybe even Lewis.  Most importantly, get ML experience for our SP prospects that show they are ready in 2022.

There are a few strategies that provide a high probability of getting better quickly.  Contending? Probably not.  A good product and entertaining baseball, yes.

1)    There is a lot of free agent pitching available this year. Get some.
2)    Replacing Simmons with someone who can hit and play D.
3)    Decline Colome’s option and get a couple reliable free agent RPs
4)    Don’t give Cave any ABs
 

Agreed, with one caveat; when you say replace Simmons with someone who can hit and play D, are you saying you want both in the same player?  Or are you saying Simmons can't do either?  The former would be wonderful, if we can secure one, but the latter assumes Simmons can't play D, and I would have to beg to differ.  He graded out in Rtot score as tops on the team, including Buxton.  12 errors over a full season for a SS is more than pretty good, and he made Josh a better 3rd baseman with his range.  My thought process is sign an elite SS who can fulfill the former, or resign Simmons (at a slightly cheaper price) and wait for an internal candidate to prove themselves.  If we can't get the former, stay with stability in the infield; his defense will make up for SLG and OPS stats on the team that finished 1st and 2nd in home runs the last two full seasons.  

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

Agreed, with one caveat; when you say replace Simmons with someone who can hit and play D, are you saying you want both in the same player?  Or are you saying Simmons can't do either?  The former would be wonderful, if we can secure one, but the latter assumes Simmons can't play D, and I would have to beg to differ.  He graded out in Rtot score as tops on the team, including Buxton.  12 errors over a full season for a SS is more than pretty good, and he made Josh a better 3rd baseman with his range.  My thought process is sign an elite SS who can fulfill the former, or resign Simmons (at a slightly cheaper price) and wait for an internal candidate to prove themselves.  If we can't get the former, stay with stability in the infield; his defense will make up for SLG and OPS stats on the team that finished 1st and 2nd in home runs the last two full seasons.  

I liked the Simmons signing.  He has been a phenomenal defender throughout his career.  He is still good and fun to watch defensively.  So, what I was trying to say is get someone good on both sides of the ball.  I don't care to watch 400+ ABS from Simmons next year.   What I would like to see them do is sign Chris Taylor.  He is very capable of playing other positions if Lewis proves worthy of taking that spot.  

[Mark G]

34 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I liked the Simmons signing.  He has been a phenomenal defender throughout his career.  He is still good and fun to watch defensively.  So, what I was trying to say is get someone good on both sides of the ball.  I don't care to watch 400+ ABS from Simmons next year.   What I would like to see them do is sign Michael Taylor.  He is very capable of playing other positions if Lewis proves worthy of taking that spot.  

Agreed again.  But if neither of those scenarios pan out.......?

[TwinsDr2021]

On 10/8/2021 at 1:41 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Our surplus in the organization as it stands today is corner OF, 1B/DH types, and 2B.

 

One could argue the Twins surplus is injured minor league pitchers.?

The only player IMO that makes sense to trade is Arraez, because the only minor league position player ready to help next year (again IMO) is Miranda and I think he should be a back up plan to start the year and maybe the same with Laranch.

If Lewis sees the majors next year it will be because either he is playing so good that he has to be brought up or plan A, B and C fell though and he is forced to be brought up based on being on the 40. Martin should be close to the same.

If I am the Twins I am looking at trading Duran or maybe SWR with a Sabato or Strotman in a Odo or Maeda type trade.

[RonCoomersOPS]

On 10/10/2021 at 11:27 AM, TheLeviathan said:

Garver is fairly old and has a troubling durability history.  His bat is good enough that I think he's the prize piece to move.  You'll get a really good arm for him IMO and that's worth more than being three deep at catcher.  Toss a contract at a career backup instead.

If you want to get something you've got to give something.  This team won't reverse fortunes on free agency alone.

There aren't many guys who can do what Garver can do, much less many guys who can do what he can do who are actually available at a reasonable cost. Fortunately for the Twins, Jeffers has a real chance at being one of those guys next year.

My price tag for Garver would be very high to be sure (like "Martin and SWR, plus" high), but I think there's a good chance someone meets it if we make him available this winter.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

There aren't many guys who can do what Garver can do, much less many guys who can do what he can do who are actually available at a reasonable cost. Fortunately for the Twins, Jeffers has a real chance at being one of those guys next year.

 

Based on what statistic?

 

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, RpR said:

Based on what statistic?

Hitting. Garver had the 3rd highest wOBA of all major league catchers behind Grandal and Posey. His glove is average, too. He's an All-Star catcher if he's healthy.

[RpR]

39 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Hitting. Garver had the 3rd highest wOBA of all major league catchers behind Grandal and Posey. His glove is average, too. He's an All-Star catcher if he's healthy.

You said:" Fortunately for the Twins, Jeffers has a real chance at being one of those guys next year. "

Based on what statistic?

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

Agreed again.  But if neither of those scenarios pan out.......?

Good question.  They are probably going to get outbid for the top guys which leaves us with Galvis or Iglesis which are not great alternatives.  BTW ... I think Taylor is going to get paid.  Teams value flexibility and he is a better version of Marwin Gonzales.  Without looking to deep I think there are some SS prospects who are blocked.  This is where I would look to deal Arraez or even Rogers.  It's a bit of a long shot but that could be a good solution if it lined up.

[Sousy]

On 10/9/2021 at 10:26 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

I think the Twins can certainly compete in the ho-hum A.L. Central in 2022, so I keep Rogers and Duffey.  RP's are always more valuable to acquire at the deadline any way, so hang onto them, see how 2022 is going and make decisions at the deadline.

Buxton:  Gotta sign him.  PERIOD.

Agreed with all of this.  Rogers / Duffey are both the type of pitchers that are solid relievers that the team could put on the free market, but then have to replace them with what? It actually seems like in the latter half of the year the Alcala / Duffey / Theilbar (and presumably Rogers) group could give the team a pretty solid core in the bullpen.

The team is also a markedly different team when Buxton is in center field (and the plate) that would go a long way to resolve some long term problems if he can even stay in the lineup for half the year. I would imagine that at some point his style of play will also adapt to be less 'hard contact' that seemed to be the case for most of this year. (Not sure how the hip injury happened, but getting hit in the fingers with a fastball was freakish bad luck.)

[DocBauer]

On 10/8/2021 at 10:01 PM, USAFChief said:

One of Sano/Kepler  has to go. Opens a spot for Kirilloff. 

 

I'd also deal Arraez if there is a market. Not sure he's worth as much as people think. 

I'd like to address Chief's comment directly. But I would add Donaldson to the "has to go list" along with Kepler and Sano. At least in theory. (I'd disagree on Arraez because I think he fills a role that nobody currently can as the team is constructed). 

I am not going to re-hash my previous post, which was basically I'm not sure trading anyone from the ML roster makes sense as there are enough question marks to go along with real hope and projection to be excited. For example, I think Kirilloff is going to be great and I think Larnach is going to be very good. But how easy/ready are we to replace Kepler? If you already need to, hopefully, find a better 4th OF than Cave, now you might need someone even better if Max is gone. Further, any sort of "consistency" from the inconsistent Sano is still something productive and dangerous that I would love to hitting in the 6-7 spot regularly. And then there remains the debate about CAN you trade Donaldson, and what would it cost in $ to do so, and do you get enough back via $ relief and/or a player to make it worthwhile?

But Chief is 100% correct that unless you are prepared to begin the 2022 season "heavy" with positional depth, even without a set DH, you still have a hard time finding room for everyone. Now, that's a good problem to have for sure. Kirilloff is READY, whether at 1B, or the OF, or both. But we need room for Arraez. We need room for Garver to DH some. Sano plays 1B and DH. How soon will Larnach be ready? Day One? A month in? And even IF Miranda starts 2022 at St Paul due to a roster crunch, you will have to make room soon if not immediately. 

Pitching is the issue, and we all know that. And sometimes "room" just happens organically due to injuries and the such. So I do think "room" may have to be made just to balance the roster and include SOMEONE in a deal for pitching.

I don't like weakening the lineup at this time with optimism but question marks on hand. It would be my hope that another Odorizzi/Maeda trade from within the system would bring in  #2 SP...unlesswe double dip in the FA market. (I'm not including Pineda as I think he's a done deal on a $8M-ish already). But I am thinking the Twins may have to make room by moving SOMEONE as part of a deal to provide opportunity for the talent on hand and be able to utilize it properly.

[Mark G]

After reading all of the posts, I find myself in the position that a lot of us are in; I agree with many, don't agree with some, and wonder what the final decisions will be between now and April.  I do have one fear, however it plays out, and that is no matter how many players change (or don't), the overall philosophy will not, and that is the philosophy that there are too many role players and not enough players with a role.  Yea, I guess that sounds weird, but there is a difference; a role player is another way of saying utility player, where a player who has a role on the team has his position on the field and in the batting order.  Correct me if I am wrong, but we had only 3 non pitcher and catcher position players who played only one position throughout the year: Donaldson, Simmons, and Buxton (and Buxton played all of 61 games).  If memory serves, even Sano went to 3rd a couple of times in a weird kind of lineup, and every other player the team had on the roster throughout the season played more than one place.  And no one knew from day to day, and week to week, if they would be in the lineup at all with all of the moving around.  Or where they would be in the batting order.......you get my drift.   As for pitchers, starters knew their roles; pitch your 70-90 pitches, or until you got knocked out, whichever came first.  The RP's, on the other hand, never knew day to day if they would pitch, what inning they would be called into.......again, you get it.  When players/pitchers never settle into a position or a role on the team, they never excel at anything; they do the best they can at everything, which is not always the better choice of the two.  

My long winded point is, please don't trade for, or sign FA's that you want to mold into role/utility players.  We have way too many of them already; swapping one for another is a lateral move.  Bring in players who excel at what they do and leave them there to excel, both position players and pitchers.  Arraez and a couple of others are all the utility players we need if we have good starters.  I may be a minority here, but a team of role players without a role of their own doesn't seem to work as well.  We need starters in more areas than just the mound.  

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

 

My long winded point is, please don't trade for, or sign FA's that you want to mold into role/utility players.  We have way too many of them already; swapping one for another is a lateral move.  Bring in players who excel at what they do and leave them there to excel, both position players and pitchers.  Arraez and a couple of others are all the utility players we need if we have good starters.  I may be a minority here, but a team of role players without a role of their own doesn't seem to work as well.  We need starters in more areas than just the mound.  

I think this is low on our list of problems.  For starters, the only significant change I see in position players coming here from free agency or trade is a SS.  That players is likely going to play only SS unless it's Chris Taylor and playing him in the OF on the  occasion Gordon or maybe even Palacios gets a start is definitely not a problem.

Our first problem with utility players is that Arraez is below average everywhere with perhaps the exception of 2B.   Then, we have an issue with covering CF whenever Buxton is out.  They should send Gordon to play CF in winter ball or at least give him a lot of reps in spring training.  Also, Celestino will probably fill that role at some point in 2022.  Astudillo probably will not be on the team.

Take the hit on Donaldson and bring up Miranda.  3B, SS, and 2B have everyday players.   Trade Arraez for pitching or a SS that is being blocked elsewhere.   I don't see any problem with using Sano and Kirilloff at 1B.  Start with Kirilloff and Kepler in the corners.  We have plenty of options of a RH 4th OFer.  Move Kirillorr to 1B if Sano were to be traded either this off-season or at the deadline.