Basking in Buxton’s Season

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/3/2021 at 3:14 PM, Nine of twelve said:

If the injuries were due to something Buxton does on a day-to-day basis then there is some basis to predict the future. But they are not. Hence, it's just as legitimate, probably more so, to say that the odds are that he is due for a few injury-free seasons. But in either case past results are no guarantee of future performance.

Expand  

Guys who get injured don't do so by choice, I don't understand why anyone thinks this is a reasonable way to look at things.  Of course Buxton isn't hurling his body purposely into injury with the intent to be injured.

The problem is that we have ample evidence that some players maintain durability and others simply don't.  Josh Donaldson isn't "doing something" or "choosing" to keep hurting his balky leg muscles.  He's just clearly more prone to injuries there.  His body can't handle the sport without more chance of injury relative to his peers.  Likewise, we have a crap ton of evidence this is the case for Buxton.  Could he suddenly be able to play baseball without getting hurt all the time?  Sure.  I hope that's the case.  I'm on board for that gamble and want an extension.  But I'm over this fairy tale that it's some kind of given he's going to be healthy.  If Vegas was doing odds on Buxton's future games played per season, I guarantee you that over/under is WAY short of 150.  It's probably short of 100.  

[puckstopper1]

  On 10/3/2021 at 3:32 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Guys who get injured don't do so by choice, I don't understand why anyone thinks this is a reasonable way to look at things.  Of course Buxton isn't hurling his body purposely into injury with the intent to be injured.

The problem is that we have ample evidence that some players maintain durability and others simply don't.  Josh Donaldson isn't "doing something" or "choosing" to keep hurting his balky leg muscles.  He's just clearly more prone to injuries there.  His body can't handle the sport without more chance of injury relative to his peers.  Likewise, we have a crap ton of evidence this is the case for Buxton.  Could he suddenly be able to play baseball without getting hurt all the time?  Sure.  I hope that's the case.  I'm on board for that gamble and want an extension.  But I'm over this fairy tale that it's some kind of given he's going to be healthy.  If Vegas was doing odds on Buxton's future games played per season, I guarantee you that over/under is WAY short of 150.  It's probably short of 100.  

Expand  

Yup - and how much should the Twins pay for 100 games per year? I'd love the Twins to resign Buck, but if he wants Machado/Harper like money THAT PREVENTS THE TEAM FROM ADDING OTHER QUALITY PLAYERS, then he should be traded for the best package the Twins can get.

[USAFChief]

  On 10/3/2021 at 3:32 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Guys who get injured don't do so by choice, I don't understand why anyone thinks this is a reasonable way to look at things.  Of course Buxton isn't hurling his body purposely into injury with the intent to be injured.

The problem is that we have ample evidence that some players maintain durability and others simply don't.  Josh Donaldson isn't "doing something" or "choosing" to keep hurting his balky leg muscles.  He's just clearly more prone to injuries there.  His body can't handle the sport without more chance of injury relative to his peers.  Likewise, we have a crap ton of evidence this is the case for Buxton.  Could he suddenly be able to play baseball without getting hurt all the time?  Sure.  I hope that's the case.  I'm on board for that gamble and want an extension.  But I'm over this fairy tale that it's some kind of given he's going to be healthy.  If Vegas was doing odds on Buxton's future games played per season, I guarantee you that over/under is WAY short of 150.  It's probably short of 100.  

Expand  

There is no guarantee ANY player will be healthy. 

 

Other than Buxton's migraines, there's no reason to believe he's more likely to be injured than any other player. 

 

Donaldson is a poor comparison. Donaldson has a history of a chronic problem.

 

Buxton doesn't

There is no such thing as "injury prone."

 

[drivlikejehu]

There's no reporting that suggests Buxton is looking for an epic guaranteed amount. When looking at the Twins' existing commitments, it's hard for me to see how extending Buxton could possibly interfere with any other plans . . . Even if he is fundamentally injury-prone (which I think is at least exaggerated, though perhaps not entirely fictional), it's still a no-brainer to me.

I haven't lost faith in the FO yet but failing to extend Buxton might get me there.

[Nine of twelve]

  On 10/3/2021 at 3:32 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Guys who get injured don't do so by choice, I don't understand why anyone thinks this is a reasonable way to look at things.  Of course Buxton isn't hurling his body purposely into injury with the intent to be injured.

The problem is that we have ample evidence that some players maintain durability and others simply don't.  Josh Donaldson isn't "doing something" or "choosing" to keep hurting his balky leg muscles.  He's just clearly more prone to injuries there.  His body can't handle the sport without more chance of injury relative to his peers.  Likewise, we have a crap ton of evidence this is the case for Buxton.  Could he suddenly be able to play baseball without getting hurt all the time?  Sure.  I hope that's the case.  I'm on board for that gamble and want an extension.  But I'm over this fairy tale that it's some kind of given he's going to be healthy.  If Vegas was doing odds on Buxton's future games played per season, I guarantee you that over/under is WAY short of 150.  It's probably short of 100.  

Expand  

If Buxton repeatedly suffered the same type of injury then yes, it's legitimate to say that he's injury prone. In Donaldson's case, he has a long history of leg muscle injuries and it's expected for that to continue. Buxton does not have a history of multiple instances of a particular type of injury. That leads me (and most people) to conclude that his injuries are a statistical anomaly. In other words, bad luck.

Edit: I didn't read Chief's post before I posted this. Great minds think alike.

[USAFChief]

  On 10/3/2021 at 11:52 PM, Nine of twelve said:

 Great minds think alike.

Expand  

As do you and I. 

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/3/2021 at 11:52 PM, Nine of twelve said:

If Buxton repeatedly suffered the same type of injury then yes, it's legitimate to say that he's injury prone. In Donaldson's case, he has a long history of leg muscle injuries and it's expected for that to continue. Buxton does not have a history of multiple instances of a particular type of injury. That leads me (and most people) to conclude that his injuries are a statistical anomaly. In other words, bad luck.

Edit: I didn't read Chief's post before I posted this. Great minds think alike.

Expand  

Josh Donaldson hurts his leg muscles all sorts of ways.  By your definition, we should totally expect him to be completely healthy!  He won't run wrong, to first, against the *insert last injury opponent here* every time.  Pure bad luck.  C'mon.  You can favor this extension without that sort of thing.

This isn't controversial: That's not how human bodies work.  "Bad luck" doesn't explain missing 300 out of a possible 480 games since 2018.  Read that again if you need to.  Not every athlete is able to play as long as others because their skills break down.  Not every athlete is able to endure the same contact or wear and tear and come through it the same.  Buck has demonstrated - to the tune of nearly missing 2/3s of the games he has been eligible to play - that his body doesn't seem to endure those rigors as well as others.

Acting like he's just "good luck" away from playing more often is seriously naive.  The Twins can't, and shouldn't, be that naive in their negotiations.  And you're only punishing yourself as a fan to keep going to that well.  Ask Nick Nelson and his Three Time Running "Buck for MVP" column in March that has, you guessed it, never materialized due to injury.  Your kind of thinking keeps going back to that well because it refuses to acknowledge a problem that has persisted and, in all likelihood, will continue to continue.  When we have a data point that Buck can play a whole season, THEN the narrative should change.

[TheLeviathan]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/02/the-genetics-of-being-injury-prone/385257/

This is but one study of many that debunks this whole "Injuries are a matter of luck" argument.  Muscle flexibility, technique, genetics, injury history, etc.  

If the Twins gamble on him, and I hope they do, it IS a gamble.  He needs to start playing 100+ games a season.  Not 55.

[mickeymental]

i agree with the pay him/sign him crowd.

HOWEVER! how can he have zero triples over the last two years and 101 games?!?!

[Nine of twelve]

  On 10/4/2021 at 2:22 AM, TheLeviathan said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/02/the-genetics-of-being-injury-prone/385257/

This is but one study of many that debunks this whole "Injuries are a matter of luck" argument.  Muscle flexibility, technique, genetics, injury history, etc.  

If the Twins gamble on him, and I hope they do, it IS a gamble.  He needs to start playing 100+ games a season.  Not 55.

Expand  

How does this apply to a concussion when being crashed into by another player, a broken hand on a HBP, and a broken toe on a foul ball? (Answer: it doesn't.)

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/4/2021 at 10:53 AM, Nine of twelve said:

How does this apply to a concussion when being crashed into by another player, a broken hand on a HBP, and a broken toe on a foul ball? (Answer: it doesn't.)

Expand  

Did those three injuries account for all 300 games he missed since 2018?

Straight from the article:

Collagen proteins also form the backbone of tissues and bones, but in some people, structural differences in these proteins may leave the body’s structures weaker or unable to repair themselves properly after injury. 

Researchers have also identified genetic markers associated with bone-mineral density, an important measure of bone strength that provides clinicians with information on a patient’s risk of fracture.

The events themselves, if you want to die on the hill that those are unlucky, isn't the underlying problem. Another player, perhaps with better genetic protein structures, may have walked away uninjured from all of those events. As well as the rib cage injury.  The hip injury.  The wall crashes.  The wrist injuries.  Etc.  That's the part that isn't "luck"

[dex8425]

  On 10/4/2021 at 10:53 AM, Nine of twelve said:

How does this apply to a concussion when being crashed into by another player, a broken hand on a HBP, and a broken toe on a foul ball? (Answer: it doesn't.)

Expand  

You're missing the fact that aging occurs, and it occurs faster if you've been injured a lot. Buxton's primary asset is his speed. He's not getting faster, and he's not getting healthier. If you break a bone, or have surgery, you're never quite the same again in that area.

I'd bet that Donaldson plays more games than Buck next year. Donaldson has a history of injury issues but also can at least stay on the field as shown by his 44 career WAR and 4 seasons in top ten MVP voting. Buxton has zero years in the top ten of MVP voting.

Personally, I wouldn't be mad if the Twins gambled on Buxton and signed him to an extension, but if I'm the GM I'm definitely shopping the trade market this winter to see if a team will overpay.

[Nine of twelve]

  On 10/4/2021 at 2:09 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Did those three injuries account for all 300 games he missed since 2018?

Straight from the article:

Collagen proteins also form the backbone of tissues and bones, but in some people, structural differences in these proteins may leave the body’s structures weaker or unable to repair themselves properly after injury. 

Researchers have also identified genetic markers associated with bone-mineral density, an important measure of bone strength that provides clinicians with information on a patient’s risk of fracture.

The events themselves, if you want to die on the hill that those are unlucky, isn't the underlying problem. Another player, perhaps with better genetic protein structures, may have walked away uninjured from all of those events. As well as the rib cage injury.  The hip injury.  The wall crashes.  The wrist injuries.  Etc.  That's the part that isn't "luck"

Expand  

Please post data on Buxton's collagen proteins, bone-mineral density genetic markers, and genetic protein structures. That way you can prove that your hypothesis is correct and not just an attempt to apply a general statement to a specific individual.

And while you're at it, please do an analysis of the collision that resulted in a concussion in 2014 and show that "another player, perhaps with better genetic protein structures, may have walked away uninjured". I've provided the video for you.

 

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/4/2021 at 5:27 PM, Nine of twelve said:

Please post data on Buxton's collagen proteins, bone-mineral density genetic markers, and genetic protein structures. That way you can prove that your hypothesis is correct and not just an attempt to apply a general statement to a specific individual.

And while you're at it, please do an analysis of the collision that resulted in a concussion in 2014 and show that "another player, perhaps with better genetic protein structures, may have walked away uninjured". I've provided the video for you.

 

Expand  

Lol.  Of course I can't prove that.  Man, rather than accept the scientifically verified data that there are reasons some people get injured more than others you went straight off the rails.

Your contention that injuries are purely luck based has been debunked.  I won't argue with strawmen, sorry.

[Vanimal46]

Has anyone’s mind changed due to Buxton’s last month of play? From what I can gather, everyone commenting here has been entrenched in their opinion for a long time. 

I’m glad my employment is not on the line making this call. There isn’t a previous example of negotiating long term with a player who’s played over 100 games once in a 6 year career. The terms that were discussed before (7/$70) terrify me, frankly. The contract length could torpedo this organization if he can’t stay healthy. It might be worth the risk, but it could just as easily blow up in their face as he loses speed and defensive chops into his 30s. 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/4/2021 at 5:59 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Has anyone’s mind changed due to Buxton’s last month of play? From what I can gather, everyone commenting here has been entrenched in their opinion for a long time. 

I’m glad my employment is not on the line making this call. There isn’t a previous example of negotiating long term with a player who’s played over 100 games once in a 6 year career. The terms that were discussed before (7/$70) terrify me, frankly. The contract length could torpedo this organization if he can’t stay healthy. It might be worth the risk, but it could just as easily blow up in their face as he loses speed and defensive chops into his 30s. 

 

 

Expand  

Anytime Buck can play baseball for a long stretch and not get hurt is a win.  7/125 with incentives is still where I am.

[yeahyabetcha]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:03 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Anytime Buck can play baseball for a long stretch and not get hurt is a win.  7/125 with incentives is still where I am.

Expand  

So if Buxton counters with 7 years/ $200 million, what do you do?

[Mike Sixel]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:09 PM, yeahyabetcha said:

So if Buxton counters with 7 years/ $200 million, what do you do?

Expand  

No incentives? Sign him. And hope he's healthy.

If you'd trade him, for what? Not generically, but specifically. Would you then punt next year, and trade more?

Those are reasonable decisions....just curiuos.

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:09 PM, yeahyabetcha said:

So if Buxton counters with 7 years/ $200 million, what do you do?

Expand  

Walk away for now and explore the market.  I won't guarantee him 200M because I am bidding against myself.  He won't get that much in guarantees unless he plays 150 games at an MVP level.  I would play those odds.

The fact it was reported 7/105 was a real negotiation point tells me that counter would be silly.

[yeahyabetcha]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:17 PM, Mike Sixel said:

No incentives? Sign him. And hope he's healthy.

If you'd trade him, for what? Not generically, but specifically. Would you then punt next year, and trade more?

Those are reasonable decisions....just curiuos.

Expand  

My first choice would be to sign him, although 7/$200 scares me.   But if I were him I am not sure I would sign for anything less.

But let’s just say that he doesn’t want to sign a long term deal with the Twins because he wants to test the open market in a year.  If that were the case the Twins should explore the trade options.

Not sure how to answer the punt question….the only minor leaguers that I see as early in the season options are Miranda, Celestino and Rortvedt.  Meaning I think the Twins already have to bring in a SS, 3 starting pitchers and at least one bullpen arm if they are gonna compete with the Sox.  And that is with signing Buxton.

 

[yeahyabetcha]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:27 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Walk away for now and explore the market.  I won't guarantee him 200M because I am bidding against myself.  He won't get that much in guarantees unless he plays 150 games at an MVP level.  I would play those odds.

The fact it was reported 7/105 was a real negotiation point tells me that counter would be silly.

Expand  

Springer got 6 years/150 million.  If I am Buxton, I bet on myself staying healthy next and would look at that contract as a starting spot.

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:46 PM, yeahyabetcha said:

Springer got 6 years/150 million.  If I am Buxton, I bet on myself staying healthy next and would look at that contract as a starting spot.

Expand  

George Springer is a 30 WAR player since 2015.  Buck is 16.  Your example only further reinforces there is no effing way he gets 200M.

I wouldn't begrudge him betting on himself, but I won't play ball at that price.  It isn't realistic.  (His negotiating team seems to agree given 105M was close)

[yeahyabetcha]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:57 PM, TheLeviathan said:

George Springer is a 30 WAR player since 2015.  Buck is 16.  Your example only further reinforces there is no effing way he gets 200M.

I wouldn't begrudge him betting on himself, but I won't play ball at that price.  It isn't realistic.  (His negotiating team seems to agree given 105M was close)

Expand  

If Buxton were to stay healthy next year and play near the pace he was at this year what kind of offers do you think he would get?

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/4/2021 at 8:08 PM, yeahyabetcha said:

If Buxton were to stay healthy next year and play near the pace he was at this year what kind of offers do you think he would get?

Expand  

4/110 best case scenario.

[Mike Sixel]

  On 10/4/2021 at 7:39 PM, yeahyabetcha said:

My first choice would be to sign him, although 7/$200 scares me.   But if I were him I am not sure I would sign for anything less.

But let’s just say that he doesn’t want to sign a long term deal with the Twins because he wants to test the open market in a year.  If that were the case the Twins should explore the trade options.

Not sure how to answer the punt question….the only minor leaguers that I see as early in the season options are Miranda, Celestino and Rortvedt.  Meaning I think the Twins already have to bring in a SS, 3 starting pitchers and at least one bullpen arm if they are gonna compete with the Sox.  And that is with signing Buxton.

 

Expand  

If he says he won't sign here, I trade him. No looking back at all.

[USAFChief]

6/110. 

Or 6/120

 

6/140

 

Whatever it takes.

 

Or Falvine should be gone.

[wabene]

3 out of his first 4 seasons Kyle Rudolph played in only 8 games missing half of each season and earning the dreaded injury prone lable. He publicly lamented this and vowed to change it. He did not miss a game the next 5 seasons garnering the iron man lable. It could happen for Buxton too. 

As Lev stated some are more injury prone which can be genetic but I believe that protecting yourself while playing sports is a skill. Some are better at it than others.

I would sign Buxton to a long term deal as long as incentives are a big part of it. His track record dictates this type of deal. 12.5m a year base salary with up to double that, 25m a year, if he plays.

[KGB]

If Falvine is wrong on either side, he is gone. 

Plus MLB will have a new contract with the players which will make the decision even more difficult.

[wabene]

Another analogy pertaining to bring injury prone would be the boxer's chin. Some have it and some don't. It may be the most underrated talent the assinine Floyd Mayweather has. Muhammed Ali had a phenomenal chin and sadly relied on it heavily, possibly contributing to his health conditions later in life. Wladimer Klitschko had his fragile whiskers exposed and had to revamp his fighting style to accommodate it.

It is quite possible that Buxton and, say, Mike Trout could run into the same wall at the same speed and have completely different outcomes. A wide receiver vs a fullback. Would you send Randy Moss as lead blocker into the hole on a halfback counter? (Ok, maybe because you don't like him).

[TheLeviathan]

  On 10/4/2021 at 10:51 PM, wabene said:

3 out of his first 4 seasons Kyle Rudolph played in only 8 games missing half of each season and earning the dreaded injury prone lable. He publicly lamented this and vowed to change it. He did not miss a game the next 5 seasons garnering the iron man lable. It could happen for Buxton too. 

As Lev stated some are more injury prone which can be genetic but I believe that protecting yourself while playing sports is a skill. Some are better at it than others.

I would sign Buxton to a long term deal as long as incentives are a big part of it. His track record dictates this type of deal. 12.5m a year base salary with up to double that, 25m a year, if he plays.

Expand  

For sure there are elements that athletes can control.  Technique, flexibility training, and awareness can help but to Buck's credit he has tried to address those elements from reports we have.