Who Survives the Twins Pen Shakeup?

[DocBauer]

Going to preface my comments with a couple quick points:

1] With $50-60M available to spend, IF the FO/ownership IS intent on competing, there ARE ways to add to the top of the rotation via FA and trade to do so. I'm NOT saying they WON'T, just stating an obvious caveat to be considered. And that flows in to my second initial point...

2] Whether they go big, semi-big, or pull a rabbit or two out of their hat to add to the rotation...whatever...the pen has to be able to be counted on. (As best as you ever can considering the volatility of bullpens in general). I am way more confident in a possible pen for 2022 now than I was a couple months ago, and it's not just SSS and smoke and mirrors.

LOCKS: That would be Rogers, Duffey and Thielbar.

Unless the Twins know something they refuse to share, the expectation is Rogers will be healthy. Can't argue with what Duffey has done the past few years and his rebound the past few months. Despite some inherited runner problems earlier in the year, Thielbar has been a find, and a good one.

NEAR LOCKS:  Alcala, Minaya and Colome.

If you've watched Alcala this year and not just read box scores and the such, you woukd have seen wicked stuff, SO, and some quality work. Mixed in, unfortunately, have also been 2R HR after dominating a couple of batters, But the flashes have been there. And he's looked really good the last month or so, he has to prove he's turned a corner. Minaya has a solid history and by all accounts I've heard, looked pretty solid in 2020 at the alt site. He's been good at St Paul and seems to have unlocked something the past 30 games plus. And please don't shoot the messenger on Colome! Despite his atrocious April and May, he's been very much his career self since June, despite a couple bad days. With his buyout figured in, he only costs about $4M for 2022, which has been previously pointed out. I believe he leads the league in saves since July if I read the stat correctly the other day. I think we have to look at his career and what he's done since June and just realize he'd probably be an excellent 7th-8th IP RP who COULD close a game. Whether via his option or a re-worked deal, he's back.

FRINGE: Stashak, Garza, Garcia, Garcia, Farrell, Coulombe, Baraclough, Burrows, Vincent.

The Twins are far smarter than I am, as well as much closer to the situation. There are almost undoubtedly a couple of these guys they have seen enough, and liked enough, to protect. But I suspect that is it. Just one or two and the rest allowed to walk or re-sign on a milb deal. Stashak may be an outlier from the rest. Despite relatively SSS, he was very good in '19 and '20 with high K numbers to start 2021 but poor secondary numbers before he was lost due to injury. Has he shown enough that  you don't want risk losing him?

WHO I DIDN'T CHOOSE: Gant and Moran.

Gant is a given to be protected, but I am unsure about the Twins plans for him. He's had limited success as a ML SP and has looked solid thus far doing so for the Twins, almost out of necessity at this point. But I sure hope the plan is for him to be in the pen in 2022! Moran is a given to be protected as well but I doubt he's a "break camp" arm. Only reason I didn't include him. 

WHAT'S LEFT TO DO? Sign one quality late IP arm for $5-7M.

FINAL CONCLUSIONS:

Think about this pen to begin 2022:

FA

Rogers

Duffey

Thielbar

Colome

Alcala

Minaya

Gant

Between a couple protected options and others not even discussed in the "who survives" portion of this discussion, not to mention young SP who can also fill-in, would you feel good about that pen beginning 2022? I would.

The one negative I see here, which others have broached, is a pen with limited options. My arguement would be, if you have a really good pen, and at least a DECENT rotation...different topic...does the "option" situation matter as much?