How quickly we Forget

[Mike Sixel]

I'm continually confused by statements that the FO has "no idea what it is doing" "they never make good decisions" etc...............

They literally won the division the last two years. 

You can be disappointed in this year, I think everyone is. But .... I think saying they are clueless idiots and we are only ever sold hope for the future....seems to completely ignore the last two years.

PS. Before you point out "last year doesn't count".....every team played under the same conditions, and the Twins won. It isn't their fault Covid happened....

[gunnarthor]

I think this depends entirely on how you view the hand they were dealt. I think you and I disagree on this but they were given a team with a nucleus of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario along with solid vets in Santana, Gibson, Escobar, Dozier and a few up-and-coming prospects who, while not core quality, were good in May, Rogers, Duffey and Garver. The team was a year removed from nearly making the playoffs. They were also gifted a solid farm system and the first pick in the draft as well as a supplemental first rounder. That core was going to win, no matter what. The FO's job was to keep the window open and support the core. I think they failed pretty substantially on both of those parts. You can disagree.

I think the marks against the FO are pretty strong - they clearly did not understand/properly value the talent they had in the system. In their first season, they didn't have any clear direction on what the team could do - they tried to trade their best player before the season started but failed and were sort of mocked for overreaching. Then they decided to go with what they had and even traded for another starter before completely reversing their position and trading for the future while the team went ahead and made the playoffs despite the FO, not because of it. They then extended Molitor and changed their minds a year later. No idea of the direction they wanted.

The talent they lost - especially in 17-18 - really hurt the future of the Twins. The pitching pipeline failed to develop. The drafts have been mediocre. I've seen enough even though I'm sure they'll come back next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

The team was a year removed from nearly making the playoffs.

While there's a lot of merit to your post, this comment feels really disingenuous. You mention they "nearly" made the playoffs in 2015 but fail to mention that they fielded literally the worst team in Twins history in 2016. Let's not pretend as if they didn't inherit a truly awful baseball team, sporting the worst record the franchise has posted in 60 years of Minnesota baseball.

[flpmagikat]

So is this what an open window feels like?

[gunnarthor]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While there's a lot of merit to your post, this comment feels really disingenuous. You mention they "nearly" made the playoffs in 2015 but fail to mention that they fielded literally the worst team in Twins history in 2016. Let's not pretend as if they didn't inherit a truly awful baseball team, sporting the worst record the franchise has posted in 60 years of Minnesota baseball.

The 2016 team was bad, no doubt, but it was also hit with injuries. If you go back and look at TD, most of us thought that the 16 team was going to make the playoffs behind that core. The key players that won in 17 and after were already in place by 16. The 16 team only had four players manage to get even 400 PA compared with 10 for 2017. The top ten players in PA from 16-17 was mostly the same, with Nunez, Plouffe and Suzki going. And the pitching that the FO inherited took most of the starts as well.

So I would disagree that they inherited an awful team. Rather, I think it was pretty clear they inherited a team with immense upside that was had a horrific season because of injuries and hard adjustments to the majors. If Ryan had been GM in 17, they still would have made the playoffs. If they had hired Amiel Sawdaye, they would have made the playoffs.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't think it's fair to call the 2016 season representative of the 2015-2018 window. There were several head scratching decisions made prior to 2016, most of all putting Sano in right field. Perkins was very hurt but hiding it. There were other questions, and then the nine game losing streak to start the season. You can't win the pennant in April, but they sure did lose it in April that season. 

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

The 2016 team was bad, no doubt, but it was also hit with injuries. If you go back and look at TD, most of us thought that the 16 team was going to make the playoffs behind that core. The key players that won in 17 and after were already in place by 16. The 16 team only had four players manage to get even 400 PA compared with 10 for 2017. The top ten players in PA from 16-17 was mostly the same, with Nunez, Plouffe and Suzki going. And the pitching that the FO inherited took most of the starts as well.

So I would disagree that they inherited an awful team. Rather, I think it was pretty clear they inherited a team with immense upside that was had a horrific season because of injuries and hard adjustments to the majors. If Ryan had been GM in 17, they still would have made the playoffs. If they had hired Amiel Sawdaye, they would have made the playoffs.

So the '16 team gets a break because of injuries, but the 2021 team doesn't and the FO needs to go? Don't follow the logic there.

Also, don't agree at all that the core of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, and Rosario were going to win no matter what. That's 1 good, not great starting pitcher, 1 elite talent who took forever to figure it out and has never stayed healthy for a full season, the streakiest hitter in baseball who doubles as the biggest K machine in the league, a gold glove type RFer who's a slightly above average hitter, a top hitting SS who couldn't field the position, and a below average defensive LFer with a slightly above average bat who was prone to more than his fair share of mental mistakes.

Twins win percentages since 2010: .580, .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364, .525, .481, .623, .600, .430. Since becoming the Twins in 1961 the team has won fewer than 40% of their games 6 total times. Twice in the last 10 years including the season before Falvine took over. They're going to end around 44 or 45% this year probably. You're so upset about this season that you want the FO fired yet it's better than all but 2 of the 7 years prior to them taking over.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I don't think it's fair to call the 2016 season representative of the 2015-2018 window. There were several head scratching decisions made prior to 2016, most of all putting Sano in right field. Perkins was very hurt but hiding it. There were other questions, and then the nine game losing streak to start the season. You can't win the pennant in April, but they sure did lose it in April that season. 

 

Wouldn't the argument then be that it's not fair to call 2021 representative of the 2018-2021 window?

[In My La Z boy]

I guess I am ready to agree with both sides of this argument, and I'll let next year decide for me what I think of the front office. So far, I am not a fan of this front office and I am not a Rocco believer, but I was as ready as anyone to replace TR - and was just as stumped by some Molitor decisions as I am of Rocco's. 

[gunnarthor]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

So the '16 team gets a break because of injuries, but the 2021 team doesn't and the FO needs to go? Don't follow the logic there.

Also, don't agree at all that the core of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, and Rosario were going to win no matter what. That's 1 good, not great starting pitcher, 1 elite talent who took forever to figure it out and has never stayed healthy for a full season, the streakiest hitter in baseball who doubles as the biggest K machine in the league, a gold glove type RFer who's a slightly above average hitter, a top hitting SS who couldn't field the position, and a below average defensive LFer with a slightly above average bat who was prone to more than his fair share of mental mistakes.

Twins win percentages since 2010: .580, .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364, .525, .481, .623, .600, .430. Since becoming the Twins in 1961 the team has won fewer than 40% of their games 6 total times. Twice in the last 10 years including the season before Falvine took over. They're going to end around 44 or 45% this year probably. You're so upset about this season that you want the FO fired yet it's better than all but 2 of the 7 years prior to them taking over.

And that's the other side of looking at things. I completely disagree but to each his own.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Wouldn't the argument then be that 2021 shouldn't be representative of the 2018-2021 window?

I called it the 2015-2018 window, started it at 2015 because that's when Buxton, Sano and Rosario debuted, and I ended it at 2018 because of the trade deadline sell-off of other players (which we have not seen the fruits of yet, by the way). Yes there was a change of front office personnel in there, but the players were mostly the same.

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

The 2016 team was bad, no doubt, but it was also hit with injuries. If you go back and look at TD, most of us thought that the 16 team was going to make the playoffs behind that core. The key players that won in 17 and after were already in place by 16. The 16 team only had four players manage to get even 400 PA compared with 10 for 2017. The top ten players in PA from 16-17 was mostly the same, with Nunez, Plouffe and Suzki going. And the pitching that the FO inherited took most of the starts as well.

So I would disagree that they inherited an awful team. Rather, I think it was pretty clear they inherited a team with immense upside that was had a horrific season because of injuries and hard adjustments to the majors. If Ryan had been GM in 17, they still would have made the playoffs. If they had hired Amiel Sawdaye, they would have made the playoffs.

This argument is so wildly inconsistent and one-sided it makes my head spin. The 2016 squad was injured but the 2021 squad is just bad.

Here are the five years of winning percentage of the Ryan administration:

.407, .407, .432, .512, .364

Here are the five years of winning percentage of the Falvey administration:

.525, .481, .623, .600, .443

This "disastrous" 2021 season would have been literally THE SECOND BEST SEASON under Ryan.

You're talking about the great young core - and there was a solid young core, no doubt - but the Twins were exiting THEIR WORST SEASON IN HISTORY and fresh off a season where the team fielded players like Byung Ho Park, John Ryan Murphy, Kurt Suzuki, Ricky Nolasco, the desiccated husks of Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins, etc. etc etc.

The 2016 squad wasn't "ravaged by injuries", they were simply a terrible ****ing baseball team, one FAR WORSE than the 2021 squad... and that was the fifth year of bad baseball, excepting the decent-but-still-nothing 2015 season.

And let's not even get into the draft picks that preceded those seasons where literally a mediocre 11th man was the best outcome out of three consecutive top six picks. Falvey also inherited that complete failure of drafting, one that still reverberates today.

You're not even attempting to be objective about this front office, gunnar. Up until about 15 minutes ago, you have referenced 2016 as a "total system failure" more times than I can count but now that it's a conversation about the Falvey front office, that 2016 squad was just injured and had so much potential.

I'm not even making excuses for Falvey, I've been particularly disappointed in their pitching development, but let's inject a dose of reality into this situation. Ryan's teams showed little signs of returning to respectability while this front office has won more often than it has lost.

[gunnarthor]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wouldn't the argument then be that it's not fair to call 2021 representative of the 2018-2021 window?

Without getting into this too much because this really is an eye of the beholder thing but how you value 2020 might really impact on how you value this FO. To me, 2020 was basically nothing. It was a third of a season, small sample size. I got knocked around a lot this offseason for not giving Maeda the credit some thought he deserved for his second place Cy Young finish. The season happened, but there's not a lot there to give weight to the FO, in my opinion.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I called it the 2015-2018 window, started it at 2015 because that's when Buxton, Sano and Rosario debuted, and I ended it at 2018 because of the trade deadline sell-off of other players (which we have not seen the fruits of yet, by the way). Yes there was a change of front office personnel in there, but the players were mostly the same.

I got ya. I just don't think it's ever smart to take 1 outlier data point and make big decisions on it. Whether a good data point or bad one. Outliers are bad decision making points.

To me it comes down to this being their 5th year in control, and in those 5 years the team has won 362 games. That's with this season not being over yet and last season being only 60 games. In the 5 years prior to them taking over the team won 344 games. I guess I feel like that gives them a mulligan for a 1 time total flop of a season. Quote from Gleeman article on The Athletic about an hour ago: "Since the July 30 trade deadline — a span of 36 games, or roughly a quarter of the season — Twins relievers are 11-0 with a 3.20 ERA. They lead the league in Win Probability Added (by a wide margin, too) and rank third in ERA." Now obviously that doesn't help save this disaster of a season after they blew up the season in April, but it's a sign that maybe this FO hasn't been a complete disaster this whole season and those numbers are much closer to the baseline of the previous 2 seasons than what we saw early.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Without getting into this too much because this really is an eye of the beholder thing but how you value 2020 might really impact on how you value this FO. To me, 2020 was basically nothing. It was a third of a season, small sample size. I got knocked around a lot this offseason for not giving Maeda the credit some thought he deserved for his second place Cy Young finish. The season happened, but there's not a lot there to give weight to the FO, in my opinion.

The 2020 season numbers are much closer to the norm of the team since Falvine took over than 2021. Don't get why you'd choose the outlier season as the more accurate data set than a season that falls in line with the norm.

[ashbury]

I'm somewhere in the middle ground, I guess, and would not forecast an abrupt housecleaning at the top.  Still, this front office hasn't demonstrated that they have achieved their own benchmark of "sustainable success" on the field, as the current year is not only bad but gives little hope for serious contention in 2022.  Maybe next year will surprise me.  But the honeymoon is over, and I'm looking for results going forward and not merely hopeful talk about hard work and getting the process right or whatever.  I'm not sure I could locate a better slate of executives to lead the team forward than what we've got - but conversely, if it turns out to be so bad that a new 5-year plan is needed, I'm not sure I would assign the same group to plan and execute it again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'm somewhere in the middle ground, I guess, and would not forecast an abrupt housecleaning at the top.  Still, this front office hasn't demonstrated that they have achieved their own benchmark of "sustainable success" on the field, as the current year is not only bad but gives little hope for serious contention in 2022.  Maybe next year will surprise me.  But the honeymoon is over, and I'm looking for results going forward and not merely hopeful talk about hard work and getting the process right or whatever.  I'm not sure I could locate a better slate of executives to lead the team forward than what we've got - but conversely, if it turns out to be so bad that a new 5-year plan is needed, I'm not sure I would assign the same group to plan and execute it again.

This. Exactly this.

I'm wildly disappointed in this season and disappointed at the lack of pitching advancement within the organization. But I'm not ready to toss them out on their asses quite yet, they receive at least one more year to show they can pivot and that 2021 was the aberration, not the expectation going forward.

Their big selling point was pitching, something they have yet to develop other than Ober... but after losing basically their entire farm system in 2020, they deserve one more year to show outcomes, good or bad.

And the result of those 2022 outcomes should determine their continued employment.

[gunnarthor]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

This argument is so wildly inconsistent and one-sided it makes my head spin. The 2016 squad was injured but the 2021 squad is just bad.

Here are the five years of winning percentage of the Ryan administration:

.407, .407, .432, .512, .364

Here are the five years of winning percentage of the Falvey administration:

.515, .478, .599, .601, .443

This "disastrous" 2021 season would have been literally THE SECOND BEST SEASON under Ryan.

You're talking about the great young core - and there was a solid young core, no doubt - but the Twins were exiting THEIR WORST SEASON IN HISTORY and fresh off a season where the team fielded players like Byung Ho Park, John Ryan Murphy, Kurt Suzuki, Ricky Nolasco, the desiccated husk of Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins, etc. etc etc.

The 2016 squad wasn't "ravaged by injuries", they were simply a terrible ****ing baseball team, one FAR WORSE than the 2021 squad... and that was the fifth year of bad baseball, excepting the decent-but-still-nothing 2015 season.

And let's not even get into the draft picks that preceded those seasons where literally a mediocre 11th man was the best outcome out of 4, 5, 6 draft places. Falvey also inherited that complete failure of drafting, one that still reverberates today.

You're not even attempting to be objective about this front office, gunnar.

I mean, you and I have had this discussion too much to keep at it. But, no. I think it's fair. You don't. Whatever. The same terrible players drove this team to the playoffs in 2017.  It would be one thing if the FO came in and acquired all the talent but they didn't. They had to supplement the talent and extend the window. They mostly failed on this. It's not really debatable, actually. (And I think the injuries in 2016 were bigger than the injuries in 2021.)

As to your thoughts - Byung Ho Park, John Ryan Murphy, Kurt Suzuki, Ricky Nolasco, the desiccated husk of Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. Only Suzuki made the top 10 in PA in 2016. Nolasco was horrible although he'd have been the fourth best starter on this years staff. Hughes only pitched 59 innings (didn't he have an elbow injury?) and Perkins only pitched 2 innings. So I'm not really sure what the point of pointing out the chaff on the 2016 team was worth.

And then the draft thing. Again. Yeah, Stewart, Gordon, and Jay didn't turn out how we wanted them too yet the FO would look a lot smarter if they hadn't let Ynoa, Gil, Curtiss, Chargois, Baddoo, Wade, Anderson, etc go. And if they hadn't wasted their many #1 picks. Remember, this FO has said that they saving money and playing games with the draft pool lets them acquire more first round talents, like Enlow. It hasn't really worked out yet.

Lastly, we haven't really talked about how this FO has failed to spend the money it has that the previous regimes didn't have. So even the free agency failures aren't really comparable.

So at the end of the day, I'm baffled on how you can say this FO has been good unless you think the core they inherited wasn't going to be good except for something they specifically did. Like hiring a certain coach or changing the pitching philosophy. But, for me, the biggest mark is not just that the 2021 Twins suck, it's how ridiculously bad the pitching is. The orioles are one of the worst teams ever and their pitchers have outperformed our pitchers by 7 WAR! For a FO that was supposed to know pitching, that's a really bad sign.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The 2020 season numbers are much closer to the norm of the team since Falvine took over than 2021. Don't get why you'd choose the outlier season as the more accurate data set than a season that falls in line with the norm.

You say that 2021 is an outlier, fine.

But what undermines that argument, to me, is the fact they traded Berríos. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

But, for me, the biggest mark is not just that the 2021 Twins suck, it's how ridiculously bad the pitching is. The orioles are one of the worst teams ever and their pitchers have outperformed our pitchers by 7 WAR! For a FO that was supposed to know pitching, that's a really bad sign.

No argument can be made that the Twins pitching completely destroyed this season before it ever got off the ground. The Twins had the 9th best ERA in baseball in 2019 and the 4th best in 2020. Their team ERA had improved every season since Falvine took over. "Since the July 30 trade deadline — a span of 36 games, or roughly a quarter of the season — Twins relievers are 11-0 with a 3.20 ERA. They lead the league in Win Probability Added (by a wide margin, too) and rank third in ERA." That's a quote from Gleeman's Athletic article today. Doesn't make this season any better, but it falls in line with the norm that was established coming into this season, and one could argue adds another data point to the argument that they've actually done quite well on the pitching side.

You're ignoring all the pitching results prior to this season and saying they're all the outliers while this season (which is actually the outlier) is what this FO can really produce. Now we haven't seen them produce the "pitching pipeline" that they need for sustained success, but they have about 10 guys who should be ready to debut next year. You seem to want them fired after this year. Based on all the information I just provided you're ready to blow up the FO and bring in new people based on 1 outlier 1st half of the season and right before we actually get to see if the pitchers they've been developing can actually provide the pipeline. Don't get why the strategy wouldn't be to at least give them next year to see if the young guys come up and succeed. Cuz if they do and they've developed their pipeline you want them to still be in place to keep it churning, not some new guys as you watch Falvey and Levine go elsewhere and start building a pipeline there.

[bean5302]

I wonder how many times this conversation has made its trip in a cirle on the merry-go-round?

The 2016 team underperformed its pythagorean by 7 games. The 2017 team outperformed its pythagorean by 2 games and in a far weaker division. The Tigers and Royals were much better in 2016 and were fully committed to rebuild in 2017.

Falvey inherited a team with a good core in what was the weakest division in baseball by a mile. He made no changes which would make an immediate major impact on the team for 2017 and failed to add the pitching the Twins needed to advance in the playoffs year after year until the competitive window for this team looks to have slammed shut. So what? The teams were competitive and that, I believe, is the goal of ownership. The issue for which Falvey will be judged is his drafting, player development and major free agency failures. If guys like Winder and Ober work out next year, it'll go a long way to solidifying the front office's ability to develop pitching. In regard to the draft, the guys I would imagine Pohlad will look at are the round 1-3 picks. Lewis, Cavaco, Larnach, Leach, Enlow, Rooker, Canterino, Wallner, Sabato, Soularie, Steer and Jeffers. There's not much to like from that group. None of them are successful MLB players right now and guys like Lewis, Cavaco, Enlow, Rooker and Larnach need to prove something in the next year or be deemed failed prospects. If none of those guys step up, I expect Falvey gets shown the door.

[wsnydes]

What's interesting to me is that the same reasons used to defend the 2016 squad can also largely be used for the 2021 squad.  Yet, the 2021 squad has managed to win more games and still has 3 weeks to play.  I'm not sure that I follow how one gets a pass and the other doesn't.

[Squirrel]

7 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

What's interesting to me is that the same reasons used to defend the 2016 squad can also largely be used for the 2021 squad.  Yet, the 2021 squad has managed to win more games and still has 3 weeks to play.  I'm not sure that I follow how one gets a pass and the other doesn't.

imho ... impatience and expectations?

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You say that 2021 is an outlier, fine.

But what undermines that argument, to me, is the fact they traded Berríos. 

Guess I don't see the connection there. 2021 is the statistical outlier (I know some will be automatically turned off by the word statistically, but doesn't change the facts). The Twins team ERA improved every year since they took over, was the 9th best in 2019, and 4th best in 2020. In the totality of Twins pitching results since Falvine took over 2021 is the outlier. I don't get what trading Berrios has to do with the overall success of the Twins pitching the last 5 years.

Trading Berrios was an asset management move in a lost season. Add more assets to help keep the window open going forward instead of putting all your eggs in the 2022 competition window. At some point it all comes down to the prospects performing. I think this is Falvine saying "we're all in on our system." Maybe it's a Pohlad mandate. Maybe they were told "put up or shut up" when it comes to developing the pipeline. But with the loss of 2020 most of their prospects are going to be hitting the majors at a more advanced age than you'd like, and it's time to see what they have. 2021 falling apart from game 2 on solidified things. The second half of 2021 has seen a return to the bullpen results they'd produced the last couple years and puts thing back in line with what they were establishing as their norm. 2019 gets pushed aside as "it's easy to win when you hit 307 HRs" as if the pitching was terrible, when in fact the pitching has been very good the last 2 years.

I'm not saying I love Falvine, or Rocco, or that I'm predicting a 2022 World Series championship, but I think they earned a mulligan with their previous performance and the pipeline needs to be opened to see if it flows before we dump those that built it. At this point 2021 is an outlier. Don't make decisions on 1 data point. At least give them 2022 and see if adjustments are made and they get back on the curve they'd established before 2021 fell into a Colome lead sinkhole.

[MN_ExPat]

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I got ya. I just don't think it's ever smart to take 1 outlier data point and make big decisions on it. Whether a good data point or bad one. Outliers are bad decision making points.

To me it comes down to this being their 5th year in control, and in those 5 years the team has won 362 games. 

Love your point and 100% agree.  My only quibble would be that we (myself included) shouldn't really use 2016 as the FOs starting point (so, this is directed more towards folks who would use the 5 year point as a negative).

Yes, Falvey was hired in 2016 (September/October) but couldn't assume his duties until Cleveland was finished with the playoffs.  Then this rolls into the holidays (let's be honest, no one really ever gets much accomplished around then), and now we are into 2017. 

I don't care how talented a GM/FO person is, you simply cannot make and educated true evaluation of the state of the franchise by the time ST rolled around in 2017.  It takes time to take stock of what and who you have.  Then once identified, you have to decide how you want to change/fix things, then find the people you need to make that happen.

Once those processes and people are in place (and anyone who has tried to change an ingrained culture can understand just how hard that is), you have to go back and periodically evaluate how they are doing and implement still further adjustments to tweak things if something isn't quite going the way you wanted.

On top of all this, you have to deal with real life and the aspect of sometimes a sure fire prospect/shiny prospect... isn't surefire, or shiny after all.  Also, they're human, they are going to make mistakes.  It's baseball, these things simply just happen.

If a team doesn't take the time to put good foundations in place, it doesn't matter how savvy or smart they are.  They are dooming themselves to failure.

(Sorry Chpetti if I come across as dinging your post.  I wasn't. Actually wholeheartedly agree... just needed a starting point)

[MN_ExPat]

51 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I mean, you and I have had this discussion too much to keep at it. But, no. I think it's fair. You don't. Whatever. The same terrible players drove this team to the playoffs in 2017.  It would be one thing if the FO came in and acquired all the talent but they didn't. They had to supplement the talent and extend the window. They mostly failed on this. It's not really debatable, actually. (And I think the injuries in 2016 were bigger than the injuries in 2021.)

 

It's baseball Gunnar... EVERYTHING is debatable .

Prove me wrong ?

[h2oface]

The Red Sox have been doing some drastic up and downs since 2013, too. I guess I could give them a bit of a break. It is the drastic fall from first to last in one year that is so disturbing, especially when it comes from the FO choices of filling the roster.

I find it pretty sad to watch folks force themselves to get excited about pitchers like Ober and Dobnak. This is where we are. This is where the FO put us with choices like Shoemaker and Happ and Astudillo and  the rest of the mediocre fillers in the last 4 years. Even if you have a great year, the post season is torched.

[Cap'n Piranha]

19 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I mean, you and I have had this discussion too much to keep at it. But, no. I think it's fair. You don't. Whatever. The same terrible players drove this team to the playoffs in 2017.  It would be one thing if the FO came in and acquired all the talent but they didn't. They had to supplement the talent and extend the window. They mostly failed on this. It's not really debatable, actually. (And I think the injuries in 2016 were bigger than the injuries in 2021.)

As to your thoughts - Byung Ho Park, John Ryan Murphy, Kurt Suzuki, Ricky Nolasco, the desiccated husk of Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. Only Suzuki made the top 10 in PA in 2016. Nolasco was horrible although he'd have been the fourth best starter on this years staff. Hughes only pitched 59 innings (didn't he have an elbow injury?) and Perkins only pitched 2 innings. So I'm not really sure what the point of pointing out the chaff on the 2016 team was worth.

And then the draft thing. Again. Yeah, Stewart, Gordon, and Jay didn't turn out how we wanted them too yet the FO would look a lot smarter if they hadn't let Ynoa, Gil, Curtiss, Chargois, Baddoo, Wade, Anderson, etc go. And if they hadn't wasted their many #1 picks. Remember, this FO has said that they saving money and playing games with the draft pool lets them acquire more first round talents, like Enlow. It hasn't really worked out yet.

Lastly, we haven't really talked about how this FO has failed to spend the money it has that the previous regimes didn't have. So even the free agency failures aren't really comparable.

So at the end of the day, I'm baffled on how you can say this FO has been good unless you think the core they inherited wasn't going to be good except for something they specifically did. Like hiring a certain coach or changing the pitching philosophy. But, for me, the biggest mark is not just that the 2021 Twins suck, it's how ridiculously bad the pitching is. The orioles are one of the worst teams ever and their pitchers have outperformed our pitchers by 7 WAR! For a FO that was supposed to know pitching, that's a really bad sign.

The players were terrible in 2016.  A new FO comes in, emphasizing analytics to help drive improvement.  The players improve enough to make the playoffs.  Seems silly to just assume the players were always going to improve, regardless of any other factor, like perhaps a FO with greater ability to develop players?

Is your argument that Park, Murphy, Suzuki, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins would have been good if they weren't injured?  Otherwise, you're essentially saying that the 2016 team would have been better if the bad players had been able to play more.

It's not just that Stewart, Gordon, and Jay didn't turn out--it's that they were all top 6 picks in 2013-2015, and before this year, had combined for only 62 IP of 4.80 ERA, all from Stewart.  Ignoring that as a factor is silly--the Twins should have 2-3 guys in their prime able to put up 1-2 WAR each right now, and they're getting nowhere near that.  Of the 7 players you listed the FO shouldn't have let go, Anderson has only pitched 2 innings in the minors this year, so he wouldn't have helped.  The other 6 have combined for 5.9 WAR--for what it's worth, Pineda, Thielbar, Jeffers, Kepler, Donaldson, and Garlick have combined for 5.8 WAR.  It's also too early for their first round picks to truly make a difference when you account for the fact that their first 1st rounder was barely 4 years ago, and has been out this entire year, and that every MiLBer lost all of 2020.  None of their first round picks had been able to get even 3 full seasons of pro ball going into 2021, and 2 of the 4 had less then one season (Cavaco and Sabato).  Are they really supposed to be able to transition that quickly?

This FO spent money in FA on Cruz x2, Pineda x2, Happ, Donaldson, Shoemaker, Colome, Simmons, Parker, Perez, Gonzalez, Schoop, committing $213.5M over just the past 3 off-seasons--my quick search at the source below shows that's more than the Twins spent on their ENTIRE roster in any TWO years of their history prior to the Falvine era (the only exception is if you combine 2011 with either 2015 or 2016--that would get you either $218M or $221M).  The only year of the Falvine era that didn't have higher payroll than any other year in Twins history was 2017, their first, and that's because teams that lose 100 games generally don't go out and spend like crazy.  The idea Falvine doesn't spend in FA is just not supported by fact or reality.

This FO has been good--the proof is in the record.  That doesn't mean they were good this year.  It doesn't mean they'll continue to be good next year or the year after.  But to jettison a front office that has produced playoff seasons in 3 of their 5 years at the helm is ridiculous.  I also have to wonder how much better the Twins' pitchers WAR might be if Maeda, Pineda, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Rogers, Duran, Balazovic, and Winder hadn't all spent significant portions of the season hurt.  You're perfectly fine with giving 2016 a pass based on injuries, despite the fact that the 2016 team was significantly worse, so why not 2021?

https://twinstrivia.com/salaries-2/

[Cap'n Piranha]

57 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I wonder how many times this conversation has made its trip in a cirle on the merry-go-round?

The 2016 team underperformed its pythagorean by 7 games. The 2017 team outperformed its pythagorean by 2 games and in a far weaker division. The Tigers and Royals were much better in 2016 and were fully committed to rebuild in 2017.

Falvey inherited a team with a good core in what was the weakest division in baseball by a mile. He made no changes which would make an immediate major impact on the team for 2017 and failed to add the pitching the Twins needed to advance in the playoffs year after year until the competitive window for this team looks to have slammed shut. So what? The teams were competitive and that, I believe, is the goal of ownership. The issue for which Falvey will be judged is his drafting, player development and major free agency failures. If guys like Winder and Ober work out next year, it'll go a long way to solidifying the front office's ability to develop pitching. In regard to the draft, the guys I would imagine Pohlad will look at are the round 1-3 picks. Lewis, Cavaco, Larnach, Leach, Enlow, Rooker, Canterino, Wallner, Sabato, Soularie, Steer and Jeffers. There's not much to like from that group. None of them are successful MLB players right now and guys like Lewis, Cavaco, Enlow, Rooker and Larnach need to prove something in the next year or be deemed failed prospects. If none of those guys step up, I expect Falvey gets shown the door.

You're upset that Cavaco, Wallner, Canterino, Sabato, and Soularie, who all had less than 1 full year of experience in the minors going into the 2021 season, aren't successful MLB players right now?  I would also point out that I'm sure the Pohlads understand the baseball draft is a giant crapshoot--BJ Surhoff is one of the 15 best first overall picks for crying out loud.  If half of the guys you listed from their first 4 drafts play in the majors for 4-5 years, the Twins drafted pretty well.

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

I find it pretty sad to watch folks force themselves to get excited about pitchers like Ober and Dobnak. 

Maybe you should join us on the Dark Side h2o.  We have cookies... and beer (if we like you).