Joe Ryan Is Better Than His Scouting Reports

[Shaitan]

11 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Gotta love Ryan so far as he has been excellent.  But let's not forget he has only started 2 major league games.  That's right 2 games.  Don't you think it's a little premature to pen him in as a top level starter for the next decade?  Give him a chance to be who he is and keep learning before we put him in the hall of Fame.  

Andrew Albers is still with the Twins based on his first 2 games.

[Shaitan]

11 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

no doubt one of top 5 in rotation next year. BUT.... we need a #1 and # 2 to compete for Division next year. Ober Ryan and Pineda are 3 we can count on.... but there are no 1 and 2 in the organization. gotta go out and buy them

Has Pineda ever pitched a full season? He's a fine pitcher when healthy, but he's not an arm you can rely on. He's a bonus.

[Dodecahedron]

4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Not skeptical at all that he can pitch--as I pointed out, I would have put him above SWR in Twins prospect rankings, i.e. a Top 5 prospect.  I'm skeptical that a guy with two career starts (one of which was mediocre) and a massively unsustainable babip is going to pitch in the majors for the next 10 years.  If you're not skeptical of the certainty of Joe Ryan's 10 year career in the bigs right now, then you're drinking some real strong kool-aid.

I hope Ryan builds on this.  I hope he is a cornerstone of the Twins rotation for the next decade.  Even bound that, I would love it if someday his number was retired.  But if Joe Ryan continues to induce little soft contact (he's at 6%, the league is 16%) and lots of hard contact (he's at 41%, the league is at 32%), he will be out of the league in the next 2-4 years.  I believe he can improve on that, which is why I am optimistic about him in the rotation next year.  That said, assuming he pitches every 5 days, his next 3 starts will be @NYY, @TOR, TOR.  If he's still performing after those 3, I'll be MUCH less skeptical.

Other than you, who said anything about 10 years?  Who even cares about 10 years from now at this point?

[TheLeviathan]

We really need someone with a good eye for breaking down film to help explain the deception this guy pitches with.  Watching hitters, they react like his pitches hopped through a wormhole halfway to the mound.  His velocity and movement can't explain that IMO, something about his delivery is frying brains.

[Dantes929]

11 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The skepticism comes from his .100 babip despite only inducing 6% soft contact, but giving up 41% hard contact; it is impossible for those 3 numbers to coexist for any sustained period.  The number most likely to change out of those, by far, is the babip, and when it does, he won't be throwing 7 inning one-hitters.  This doesn't mean Ryan's about to turn into Happ or anything, but it also means he's not mutant deGrom either.

I like Joe Ryan, and I'm very optimistic about him--I thought he should have been ranked higher on the Twins prospect list than SWR--but we shouldn't assume that he's ready to be a 10 year starter in the bigs based off of two starts, one of which was mediocre.

I guess its fair to say those 3 numbers cannot coexist for any sustained period.   I agree.   I also agree that the babip is just most likely to change.   It is absolutely guaranteed to more than double but no one is expecting a career of 7 inning 1 hit games.    The 6% soft contact rate is very likely to triple and the hard contract rate is likely to drop.   I was never super high on Berrios so I guess that is kind of my hope for comp.    Hope is what keeps us coming back.

[jorgenswest]

At the trade Eno Sarris compared him to Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit. I think he had some video of how his fastball and arm action were similar to Petit. Let’s hope he is near the upper extreme with his effectiveness in that style.

Can he develop the pitch mix to face batters multiple times in the game? Can he be as effective from the stretch as he is from the wind up? Can he survive a likely high fly ball rate and avoid giving up too many home runs with runners on base?

I think he will have some growing pains but he needs to be at this level.

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

We really need someone with a good eye for breaking down film to help explain the deception this guy pitches with.  Watching hitters, they react like his pitches hopped through a wormhole halfway to the mound.  His velocity and movement can't explain that IMO, something about his delivery is frying brains.

He leads with his elbow, which hides the pitch longer. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 9/10/2021 at 6:30 PM, Dodecahedron said:

Other than you, who said anything about 10 years?  Who even cares about 10 years from now at this point?

I never said anyone else said 10 years.  I said 10 years because I'm trying to make the point that we shouldn't just assume Joe Ryan can be etched in stone into the rotation for the foreseeable future, based on his first 2 starts.  Nothing more, nothing less.