Let the Learning Commence for Twins Brass

[sjunisu]

On 8/27/2021 at 10:11 PM, bean5302 said:

Honestly, it probably doesn't matter much what I think of the front office. I don't expect Jim to give me a call and seek my advice on whether or not he should keep Falvey and Levine employed.

I don't really understand why people feel 2017 was a big product of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. The only notable position player they brought in was Jason Castro. They brought in Hector Santiago to the pitching staff and he pitched poorly. It was basically the same team as 2016 with the same manager. It's not like Falvey's name on the plaque outside the GM's office door magically transformed the team. Pythagorean's showed +9 wins between 2016 and 2017 so that's undoubtedly a lot of the improvement, along with steps forward from the younger players inherited from the previous regime(s).

I expect Falvey and Levine are on a very hot seat right now. Their drafts have been mediocre to poor based on performace so far and next year is likely to be how the ownership views the cast offs they inherited, and what happens with the 40 man roster this year like do they leave Gordon and Palacios off?

• Chargois - 40.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
• Reed        -  9.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9
• Wells       - 47.0 IP, 3.64 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 (could be a starter)
• Baddoo    - 339 PA, .261/.327/.458 OPS+ 118 (plays adequate center field)
• Wade       - 261 PA, .248/.317/.521 OPS+ 121

Now, I don't expect guys like Chargois and Reed will be successfull long term, and as relievers, they don't add a ton of value even if they pitch decent. They won't be the players who make or break Falvey. Wells, Baddoo and Wade very well could. So could Palacios or Gordon if they find success at the MLB level on another team. I guarantee you if Palacios or Gordon manage to put together a serviceable MLB season at SS somewhere outside the Twins, Falvey will have his walking papers next year, and if Wells turns into a middle of the rotation starter, Falvey is going to have to rely upon his drafts to save him and as of today, right now, they're looking pretty rough.

Outstanding post.  I will add my additional two cents as well.  In addition to poor drafting at the top (Sabato and Cavaco prime examples), we have yet to see the fruits of the Escobar and Pressley trades (which were made some time ago) and both would be useful pieces to this team now (not needed big Donaldson contract, nor Colome).  Would be remiss to not also add the 2 trades that are having the biggest impact on next year's Twins (Gil for Cave and Ynoa for 1 game of Garcia).  Just imagine if the duo had simply not pulled the trigger on those 2 trades that now look disasterous (would have both and spot in outfield for Wade or Baddoo).  Agreed on Chargois and Reed, but Littell looks like could be a real mistake as well.  Not having much of anything to show for your pitching prowness after 5yrs at the helm is pretty damning.

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

...Apparently, everyone has the skillset required to run a baseball organization...

Lots of people have the skill set to compare results between competing products or services, especially when there is data to review.

• Drafting and development (how have the draft picks advanced and played relative to their peers?)
• Maintaining team control (has the team protected their interests in players?)
• Trade results (what value did the team receive for its players?)
• Free Agency Signings (how well did free agent players perform relative to cost)
• Team Results (how well did the front office address the team's needs?)

Do you have the skillset to play major league baseball? If not, how can you make posts judging a player's performance? Same answer. By comparing that player to their peers. The process isn't different than choosing a good toilet paper, the best pizza or the best car. The only thing that changes is the dataset you're using.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, sjunisu said:

we have yet to see the fruits of the Escobar and Pressley trades (which were made some time ago) and both would be useful pieces to this team now

Both were free agents years ago, though. The Twins wouldn't have either unless they signed them at free agent prices.

[ashbury]

I believe Falvey's relative youth played a role in his hiring, and then likewise with Levine. The point of hiring youth versus a retread is that there is the potential for growth. I'm not impressed with the results so far, but I expect that ownership will give this FO a lot more leeway to continue to improve, than I probably would.  Replacing at the very top is an expensive proposition in multiple dimensions, versus letting the FO learn from mistakes. The key is whether they view anything as mistakes versus bad luck.  I expect they talk a good game when reviewing results with ownership.

[sjunisu]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Both were free agents years ago, though. The Twins wouldn't have either unless they signed them at free agent prices.

You are correct - however, it seems to be much easier to get a player to sign with their existing team than come back to a team which traded them.  Escobar signed for 3/21 in 2018 which I would definitely rather have at that price than Donaldson at 20M+ per (plus I believe Escobar liked playing here prior and was really good in the clubhouse).  Pressley had an additional yr control and signed 2/17.5 plus an option another contract I would definitely take over the likes of Colome.  Plus the fact of the matter is none of the trade assets have seen quality time w/ Twins (Alcala has been less than average and Celistino was clearly overmatched what we saw).  Point is, the Twins would be better off with both of these players (w/ the FA contracts) and Gil/Ynoa than what we got out of all 4 of those trades.  Had those trades never happened, 2022 would be looking a bit brighter right now.

[Dodecahedron]

On 8/28/2021 at 1:45 PM, Seth Stohs said:

Viola is a pitching coach in the independent Atlantic League. 

Rocco Baldelli has 20+ years over experience in baseball, from prospect, to player, to injured player, to retiring player, to scout, to coach, to front office, and now manager of people. If we can't question Viola's comments, then maybe we can't question Baldelli's decisions either all the time?

Levine has been in front offices for a long time, including a couple of World Series teams. Falvey has played, scouted, and been in a variety of front office roles for 15ish years. 

Good resumes, but this doesn't address the issues the teams have today.

Viola is mirroring what the 1991 Championship team said in every interview they had during their anniversary celebrations.  The only difference is Viola was more direct.  It's obvious to us the team isn't firing on all cylinders, and it's also clear that these players, many of whom also have impressive resumes, all spotted the same thing playing out behind the scenes when they were in town socializing with the team.

The 1991 Championship was not a slam dunk.  That team worked very hard.  They finished the previous year in last place.  They started slow and were in last place for most of the first month of the season.  I dare say if the 2001 team railed out a 15-game winning streak in June as what happened in 91, we'd be having different conversations right now.  That team went from 6th place to 1st place in less than 3 weeks, and I'm guessing launch angles had nothing to do with it.

[Dodecahedron]

On 8/28/2021 at 2:03 PM, a-wan said:

The Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox called. They'd like to give up their recent World Series trophies because their players didn't use enough heart because of the analytics departments.

Wha?  The Cubs was playing just like the 1991 Twins team was.  You could see the team spirit.  Same with the Red Sox.

 

[Dodecahedron]

20 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I agree with the criticisms to a degree.  Want to rip them that everything they did for this team this year was a total failure?  Hell yeah.  And they were over confident they could just fix anyone.

But impugning analytics generally?  At that point you're off the rails.

OK, but Viola did not do that in his tweet.  He may have done that elsewhere.

If I say french fries are stupid and then talk about riding in airplanes, is my opinion on airplanes null and void because you don't like what I said about french fries?  Silly statement I guess, because yes that's where we are now as a society...

[TheLeviathan]

16 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

OK, but Viola did not do that in his tweet.  He may have done that elsewhere.

If I say french fries are stupid and then talk about riding in airplanes, is my opinion on airplanes null and void because you don't like what I said about french fries?  Silly statement I guess, because yes that's where we are now as a society...

Except he then retweeted his wife saying this (shortly after retweeting yet another anti-tech/analytics piece about robot umpires): 

Leadership begets Leadership... what is the organizational mantra? The Twins of the 80's & 90's were built upon fundamentals, team chemistry, players arrived early and left late because they loved being there. Analytics won't replace hard work & a big heart... ask Kirby Puckett!

Ripping analytics was a clear implication and subtext to his post.  As if analytics is opposed to fundamentals.  It's implying the team doesn't care about clubhouse culture and attitude....despite being the FO and manager who has prioritized that more than any in my lifetime.  Your tortured analogy only works if you are complaining about airplanes because they serve french fries.  At which point, yes, the two opinions are tied together and I can examine your reasons on both and how you wed them together.

He can have those opinions, but then he can be criticized for them as well.  Pretending they don't exist or weren't the point is silly. 

[Dodecahedron]

7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Except he then retweeted his wife saying this (shortly after retweeting yet another anti-tech/analytics piece about robot umpires): 

Leadership begets Leadership... what is the organizational mantra? The Twins of the 80's & 90's were built upon fundamentals, team chemistry, players arrived early and left late because they loved being there. Analytics won't replace hard work & a big heart... ask Kirby Puckett!

Ripping analytics was a clear implication and subtext to his post.  As if analytics is opposed to fundamentals.  It's implying the team doesn't care about clubhouse culture and attitude....despite being the FO and manager who has prioritized that more than any in my lifetime.  Your tortured analogy only works if you are complaining about airplanes because they serve french fries.  At which point, yes, the two opinions are tied together and I can examine your reasons on both and how you wed them together.

He can have those opinions, but then he can be criticized for them as well.  Pretending they don't exist or weren't the point is silly. 

Is he wrong that analytics doesn't replace playing the game and working hard?  Objectively, I think we can all agree that he is not wrong.

[a-wan]

32 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Wha?  The Cubs was playing just like the 1991 Twins team was.  You could see the team spirit.  Same with the Red Sox.

 

*blinks* *blinks*

So in your world good teams and heart have r = 1 and bad teams and heart are r = -1?

Can we get a list of heart-filled teams? Is Tampa Bay filled with heart this year and Baltimore isn't?

[Dodecahedron]

Just now, a-wan said:

*blinks* *blinks*

So in your world good teams and heart have r = 1 and bad teams and heart are r = -1?

Can we get a list of heart-filled teams? Is Tampa Bay filled with heart this year and Baltimore isn't?

I'm don't recall saying anything about hearts, but if you want to go at it with a straw man, that's fine with me.  I'll sit back and watch.

[TheLeviathan]

2 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Is he wrong that analytics doesn't replace playing the game and working hard?  Objectively, I think we can all agree that he is not wrong.

Did the Twins organization send out a press release with a headline like "Twins Declare Hard Work for Suckers and Old Fogeys.  Team will Play the Game the Wrong Way, with Calculators in their Pocket Protectors"

If no, then I guess Frank really kicked the stuffing out of that strawman.  Even got you to be his sidekick on that silly fallacy.

[Dodecahedron]

On 8/27/2021 at 10:11 PM, bean5302 said:

Honestly, it probably doesn't matter much what I think of the front office. I don't expect Jim to give me a call and seek my advice on whether or not he should keep Falvey and Levine employed.

Leaders don't wait for phone calls, right?  Give St. Peter your analysis.  If he does the predictable thing and tosses your analysis into the trash and yells at his secretary for allowing a fan to reach him unsolicited, but then the team continues to fail, that's on him.  I probably wouldn't go right to Pohlad because I think he only has one eye on the team, if even that.

This sounds snarky, and it is a bit, but it's also serious at the same time.  Things actually do change when people step up and do these things.  The effort is a failure 99.8% of the time, but nonetheless it's the only way to make change happen.  St. Peter, after all, got his job by stepping out in this way.

[Major League Ready]

For what it's worth ... I was listening to "The Front Office" on MLB network while driving this weekend.  They were actually talking about the Met's failure this year and what they should do about it.  Their solution was to do whatever it takes to get Theo Epstein including giving him partial ownership.  Their back-up plan was to get Derek Falvey.  They were emphatic to the point of suggesting they give him a 10 year $100M contract.  Point being this is what impartial observers who have actually had a GM job think of Falvey.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Leaders don't wait for phone calls, right?  Give St. Peter your analysis.  If he does the predictable thing and tosses your analysis into the trash and yells at his secretary for allowing a fan to reach him unsolicited, but then the team continues to fail, that's on him.  I probably wouldn't go right to Pohlad because I think he only has one eye on the team, if even that.

This sounds snarky, and it is a bit, but it's also serious at the same time.  Things actually do change when people step up and do these things.  The effort is a failure 99.8% of the time, but nonetheless it's the only way to make change happen.  St. Peter, after all, got his job by stepping out in this way.

I'm a fan posting on a Twins site with quite limited information. In order to put together a valuable analysis with enough merit to result in action on Falvey's employment, I'd have to devote hundreds of hours to the project and depend on the cooperation of coaches and players inside the Twins organization sharing generally withheld information about development and scouts outside the organization as well. I don't care enough about the situation to devote my time to a project like that without being compensated, a lot. At the end of the effort, I could actually come to the conclusion Falvey is doing an excellent job, I might add.

Aside from that, why would I send this to Dave St. Peter? Falvey reports to Jim Pohlad. If you're looking at titles, I could see where you'd assume Falvey was a direct report of St. Peter, but they're different branches of the organizational tree. St. Peter outranks Falvey by a fair margin, but the reporting structures branch off at Pohlad. It'd be like sharing an analysis of the Director of Marketing's performance with the Chief Technology Officer.

You are correct, though. St. Peter's executive assistant, Danielle Berg, would screen any such communication before St. Peter even got a glimpse of it for numerous reasons.