Twins Failing Half of Expectations

[Ted Schwerzler]

Once again, last night, the Twins dropped a game in which their pitching let them down. On the positive side, they produced offensively, but they’re only holding up half of the bargain.

After an ugly series against the New York Yankees, Minnesota went to Boston with an opportunity to reset. In a game that the Twins put up 14 hits and scored nine runs, they still found themselves on the short side of the ledger. While this season has gone nothing as was expected, this is a reality that’s played out far too often.

The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman has consistently reported one of the most telling statistics tied to this club during the season.

Giving up five or fewer runs in a baseball game on a nightly basis should not be a difficult task. It also should not so consistently result in an inability to overcome. The turnover in their starting rotation has compounded Minnesota's ineptitude to pitch. The path forward looks even more gloomy with the uncertainty of Kenta Maeda’s health going into the offseason.

Offensively the Twins are no longer the Bomba Squad, but they’re hardly a lackluster unit. With 577 runs scored, they are 13th in baseball as a team. They are 13th and 14th in average and on-base percentage, respectively, while rounding out the top 10 in OPS. That’s not by any means world-beating numbers, but being middle-of-the-pack should present a substantially greater opportunity for competitiveness.

It’s on the bump where things go completely off the rails. The Twins are 26th in pitcher fWAR, and their 5.00 ERA is 27th in baseball. At 21.7%, they are striking out batters 23rd most across the sport, and there’s been little semblance of bright spots.

During the broadcast, Dick Bremer noted the Twins need to overhaul the relief corps in 2022 while Caleb Thielbar was on the mound. The formerly retired pitcher has been a pleasant surprise and was noted by the broadcaster as a near-lock for the unit in the year ahead. He then promptly gave up a two-run shot to Red Sox utility man Enrique Hernandez and Minnesota’s season predictability was as evident as ever.

Tonight Rocco Baldelli will turn to another bright spot, Bailey Ober, in hopes of getting back in the win column. Minnesota is an underdog at Fenway while the Red Sox are chasing down Tampa Bay, currently sitting 6.5 back in the AL East.

There have been bright spots for this club, but they haven’t been on the mound. Looking to salvage something over the last month, seeing performance from the bump would be a much-welcomed reality

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[Mike Sixel]

Fewer than 5 is actually pretty hard.....all but 5 teams are averaging more than 4 per game, and two are a rounding error from there.....5 seems to be the magic number, which is unreal, really.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, not a lot to disagree with here. The offense is, or at least very close to, playoff caliber. The Twins 108 OPS+ is fourth in the AL and fifth in MLB.

But the pitching. There really isn't a lot of encouraging news here. I really think the only way they can compete is to buy a pitching staff through FA next year. Which I don't think we'll do.

[Mike Sixel]

43 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, not a lot to disagree with here. The offense is, or at least very close to, playoff caliber. The Twins 108 OPS+ is fourth in the AL and fifth in MLB.

But the pitching. There really isn't a lot of encouraging news here. I really think the only way they can compete is to buy a pitching staff through FA next year. Which I don't think we'll do.

It looks pretty bleak right now. If Maeda is out, they have zero, zero, experienced pitchers under contract. I didn't know that was even possible. 

Ober and no one else is a lock right now? They really need to acquire two good SP in the off season. Then hope on Ober and um, hmmmmm. I got no idea how this works at this point.

[Mark G]

I think a lot of our offensive stats are somewhat skewed by games like last night.  Lots of offense in one game and not much in another average out alright, but don't tell the whole picture.  When they talk about runs given up, here is a stat about the offense:  in 45% of our games so far this year we have scored 3 runs or less; not surprising we are 17 games under .500.  There have been too many games we pad our offensive stats and too many games where we don't score, so it looks overall like we have a good offense and it can be deceiving. 

As for pitching, I posted a few days ago exactly the scenario about not one starting pitcher from opening day pitching today, as well as an unsettled bullpen.  I am glad Matthew Taylor noticed.   

[ashbury]

Gleeman's stat/split is the mark of a so-so offense, not a strong one.

A strong offense can not totally make up for bad pitching, but it would do better than this in those 6+ run games.

If the Twins' pitching were of championship caliber, we'd be looking harder at the offense as the anchor holding them back from true contention. As it is, the team's record in 2021 has been a complete team effort.

 

[Jack Dupp]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, not a lot to disagree with here. The offense is, or at least very close to, playoff caliber. The Twins 108 OPS+ is fourth in the AL and fifth in MLB.

But the pitching. There really isn't a lot of encouraging news here. I really think the only way they can compete is to buy a pitching staff through FA next year. Which I don't think we'll do.

 

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, not a lot to disagree with here. The offense is, or at least very close to, playoff caliber. The Twins 108 OPS+ is fourth in the AL and fifth in MLB.

But the pitching. There really isn't a lot of encouraging news here. I really think the only way they can compete is to buy a pitching staff through FA next year. Which I don't think we'll do.

Playoff-caliber offense my ass. 

[Jack Dupp]

The offense, defense, pitching, coaching/managing, and front office have all contributed equally to the worst record in a terrible division. 

[Thegrin]

The current situation is terrible, but it does make for some interesting games.

[HerbieFan]

So here we are.  Bailey Ober gives them the best chance to win a ballgame.  Yikes.

[DocBauer]

You have to realize/remember, 5 runs given up is an aggregate/delta. For every 10-8 game there are as many 3-2 games, as an example.

So it's about consistency.  You have to remember a truth that has been born out year after year...everyone will win 60 and lose 60. It's the other 42 games that make the difference. [Don't you DARE talk about 50 win teams as they are an outlier and you know this]. 

The problem is not offense, even though it's underperformed at times for various reasons. And there are a few tweaks that could help with better health and approach. And I would tell you that there is a lot of optimism here with the talent on hand.

But clearly the issue is pitching. 

Two days ago I would have told you what this team needs is a quality SP...and there are different options and scenarios...to add and bring back Pineda or someone similar and let the 4th and 5th spots be fluid various arms. Sign a couple quality BP arms that shouldn't cost more than $7-10M combined....which MIGHT include the Colome option...plus a flier or 2.

But IF Maeda is a surgery issue, we enter a whole new territory for 2022. Suddenly we go from a quality SP addition...Stoman?...and Pineda or similar...to needing THREE SP pitchers if Maeda is gone. This, unfortunately,  puts us in an entirely different dynamic. 

We are SO CLOSE to seeing pitching prospects arriving at the ML level. But we are also in a very bad place if Maeda is out. Suddenly a re-tool is a potential re-build.

Is there enough guts for the FO and ownership to still bring in a top arm? Then you have to bring another second arm to replace Maeda IF he is out.  Then you'd still like a veteran arm so Ober and others don't HAVE to be counted on.

I don't envy the FO right now. You need another SP for a good team with talent and potential. You need to help the pen and make sure the #3 spot in your rotation is OK. And Suddenly you don't know if Maeda will be part of 2022.

Nightmare situation for the FO.

 

 

[RonCoomersOPS]

7 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

But the pitching. There really isn't a lot of encouraging news here. I really think the only way they can compete is to buy a pitching staff through FA next year. Which I don't think we'll do.

*Bailey Ober has entered the chat*

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

*Bailey Ober has entered the chat*

... wanting to discuss the bullpen situation.

[RonCoomersOPS]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

... wanting to discuss the bullpen situation.

I mean, he's really doing his part to limit the bullpen's exposure as best he can. He's giving great innings and staying healthy deeper into the season than he ever has before ( *jinx jinx jinx* ). He's just gotta keep doing that and leave the bullpen to sort itself out.

[Minny505]

Quote from Article: "It’s on the bump where things go completely off the rails. The Twins are 26th in pitcher fWAR, and their 5.00 ERA is 27th in baseball. At 21.7%, they are striking out batters 23rd most across the sport, and there’s been little semblance of bright spots."

It's actually amazing that they have moved this far up in the rankings of all those numbers. I guess it's why they have been a .500 ballclub over the past three months.

Cuz 7 weeks into the season, they were last in MLB in most of those categories, some of them by a hole so deep I did not think it possible to move to 29th by season's end. They were not higher than 29th in any pitching category that you want to be near the top of (with the exception of BB/9), 

Getting into the mid-20's from the hole they dug through week 7 is an impressive feat.

That's sad.

[old nurse]

I think for the season you can throw the stats out. Once the sell off started it becomes spring training for next year. The pitchers seem to be left in to pitch counts. Outfielders are playing to determine if they are viable for next year

[old nurse]

Wow, a better record when you give up 5 or fewer runs. In a season filled with injuries people should be amazed that they has that many under 5 run games and the corresponding record in said games. 

[MABB1959]

Have there been any discussion about the Twins medical staff and the ability to keep players (mostly pitchers) healthy?   So many injuries and the pitchers barely ever make it to the 7th inning so I don't think they could be contributed to overuse?