What is the status of Simeon Woods Richardson?

[jkcarew]

This thread very helpful…I’d think many of us were looking for an SWR update.

Thanks.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I guess I don't see it as that big of a difference. Just means 2 teams had needs for current major leaguers and were able to get 2 highly regarded pitchers for him. Don't know why being part of trades for 2 of the better pitchers in the game should be a mark against him.

Once or twice, I agree, not a huge difference.  Except, in the case of SWR; both times he was traded, the team trading him away had relatively low odds to make the playoffs that year.  When the Mets traded SWR away on July 30, 2019, they were 51-55, 4th in the NL East, 11 back from the Braves, with a 16.5% chance to make the playoffs.  Sure, Stroman had 2+ years of control left, but why make the deal in July, instead of December?  Wait, and you don't have top give up as much; maybe you can keep SWR, and give up a less highly-regarded prospect; unless the Mets after having watched SWR thought there was a greater risk of him reaching his potential than they thought.

When Toronto traded for Berrios, they were 53-48, 4th in the AL East, 8 back of the Rays.  In the Wild Card race, they were behind the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, and Mariners, and only 2.5 up on the Angels--their odds to make the playoffs were 33.2%.  The same logic as above holds--wait to trade for Berrios until December 2021, and maybe you only need to give up Martin and a lesser prospect, and you get to keep SWR--this suggests the Blue Jays thought the first 6 years of SWR's MLB career is not worth 12 starts from Jose Berrios in a year they were twice as likely to miss the playoffs as make them.  That doesn't scream "we the Toronto Blue Jays think SWR will be a frontline MLB pitcher in 2-3 years" to me.

A guy with the ceiling of borderline #1 starter who has yet to start his service clock doesn't get traded twice unless there is a higher than average risk he doesn't reach that ceiling.  Maybe SWR makes both the Mets and Jays look silly for trading him, and getting less than 4 years of control on pitchers who were not as good as he became.  Or maybe SWR ends up being Fernando Romero, who looked like a potential ace in his first 5 starts as a 23 year old in 2018, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2019.  I think SWR absolutely needs to be in our top 5-7 prospects, but when comparing him to a guy (Joe Ryan) who's floor is late inning bullpen weapon, the chasm between SWR's ceiling and floor needs to be taken into account.  I'm not so sure that's happening amongst some posters here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

37 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Once or twice, I agree, not a huge difference.  Except, in the case of SWR; both times he was traded, the team trading him away had relatively low odds to make the playoffs that year.  When the Mets traded SWR away on July 30, 2019, they were 51-55, 4th in the NL East, 11 back from the Braves, with a 16.5% chance to make the playoffs.  Sure, Stroman had 2+ years of control left, but why make the deal in July, instead of December?  Wait, and you don't have top give up as much; maybe you can keep SWR, and give up a less highly-regarded prospect; unless the Mets after having watched SWR thought there was a greater risk of him reaching his potential than they thought.

When Toronto traded for Berrios, they were 53-48, 4th in the AL East, 8 back of the Rays.  In the Wild Card race, they were behind the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, and Mariners, and only 2.5 up on the Angels--their odds to make the playoffs were 33.2%.  The same logic as above holds--wait to trade for Berrios until December 2021, and maybe you only need to give up Martin and a lesser prospect, and you get to keep SWR--this suggests the Blue Jays thought the first 6 years of SWR's MLB career is not worth 12 starts from Jose Berrios in a year they were twice as likely to miss the playoffs as make them.  That doesn't scream "we the Toronto Blue Jays think SWR will be a frontline MLB pitcher in 2-3 years" to me.

A guy with the ceiling of borderline #1 starter who has yet to start his service clock doesn't get traded twice unless there is a higher than average risk he doesn't reach that ceiling.  Maybe SWR makes both the Mets and Jays look silly for trading him, and getting less than 4 years of control on pitchers who were not as good as he became.  Or maybe SWR ends up being Fernando Romero, who looked like a potential ace in his first 5 starts as a 23 year old in 2018, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2019.  I think SWR absolutely needs to be in our top 5-7 prospects, but when comparing him to a guy (Joe Ryan) who's floor is late inning bullpen weapon, the chasm between SWR's ceiling and floor needs to be taken into account.  I'm not so sure that's happening amongst some posters here.

Maybe some teams don't like the idea of punting on an entire season just because the stars aren't perfectly aligned. It's a bit of a stretch to malign them for trying instead of giving up, especially when both pitchers had 1.5 years of remaining control so they weren't pushing their chips all in on a single hope on a prayer, but increased competitiveness for two seasons.

It's something I wish the Twins would try once every blue moon, as I've seen them do it literally zero times.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Once or twice, I agree, not a huge difference.  Except, in the case of SWR; both times he was traded, the team trading him away had relatively low odds to make the playoffs that year.  When the Mets traded SWR away on July 30, 2019, they were 51-55, 4th in the NL East, 11 back from the Braves, with a 16.5% chance to make the playoffs.  Sure, Stroman had 2+ years of control left, but why make the deal in July, instead of December?  Wait, and you don't have top give up as much; maybe you can keep SWR, and give up a less highly-regarded prospect; unless the Mets after having watched SWR thought there was a greater risk of him reaching his potential than they thought.

When Toronto traded for Berrios, they were 53-48, 4th in the AL East, 8 back of the Rays.  In the Wild Card race, they were behind the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, and Mariners, and only 2.5 up on the Angels--their odds to make the playoffs were 33.2%.  The same logic as above holds--wait to trade for Berrios until December 2021, and maybe you only need to give up Martin and a lesser prospect, and you get to keep SWR--this suggests the Blue Jays thought the first 6 years of SWR's MLB career is not worth 12 starts from Jose Berrios in a year they were twice as likely to miss the playoffs as make them.  That doesn't scream "we the Toronto Blue Jays think SWR will be a frontline MLB pitcher in 2-3 years" to me.

A guy with the ceiling of borderline #1 starter who has yet to start his service clock doesn't get traded twice unless there is a higher than average risk he doesn't reach that ceiling.  Maybe SWR makes both the Mets and Jays look silly for trading him, and getting less than 4 years of control on pitchers who were not as good as he became.  Or maybe SWR ends up being Fernando Romero, who looked like a potential ace in his first 5 starts as a 23 year old in 2018, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2019.  I think SWR absolutely needs to be in our top 5-7 prospects, but when comparing him to a guy (Joe Ryan) who's floor is late inning bullpen weapon, the chasm between SWR's ceiling and floor needs to be taken into account.  I'm not so sure that's happening amongst some posters here.

You still haven't provided the logic for "a guy with the ceiling of a borderline #1 starter who has yet to start his service clock doesn't get traded twice unless there is a higher risk he doesn't reach that ceiling." Wait and trade for him in the offseason? So the Twins were only going to deal Berrios to the Blue Jays? They had no other offers and he'd just be there to get in the offseason? Blue Jays had no other offers for Stroman? They were only going to deal him to the Mets? There's no logic in that.

Joe Ryan's floor is AAAA pitcher who can't get away with his high fastball usage in the majors and never becomes anything. SWR's floor is minor leaguer without elite velocity who can never make it beyond AA. All you're doing is describing prospects and the inherent risk that comes with them. You are more than welcome to be higher on Ryan than SWR. Nothing wrong with that. But none of the arguments you've made provide the logic you're suggesting they do.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Maybe some teams don't like the idea of punting on an entire season just because the stars aren't perfectly aligned. It's a bit of a stretch to malign them for trying instead of giving up, especially when both pitchers had 1.5 years of remaining control so they weren't pushing their chips all in on a single hope on a prayer, but increased competitiveness for two seasons.

It's something I wish the Twins would try once every blue moon, as I've seen them do it literally zero times.

Declining to surrender prospect capital for established big leaguers at the deadline, and punting on a season in progress are not the same thing.  I'd argue that a team with a low chance to make the playoffs should never trade prospects in-season, unless the deal is just too good to pass up (like if the Twins had been able to get Trea Turner for Rooker and Wallner).  The point I was making is that if the Mets and Jays had waited until the upcoming offseason, they still could have traded for Stroman and Berrios, and possibly paid less (they certainly wouldn't have paid more).  As such, both clubs signaled they didn't value SWR's first 6 years of control all that highly, as they potentially gave it away for 12 starts from good-not-great pitchers in years they were not likely to make the playoffs.

I think you're mischaracterizing the 2019 Mets and 2021 Jays as teams where "the starts aren't perfectly aligned"--both teams were quite flawed, with very low playoff probabilities, but reason to hope for the future.  Making win-now moves for teams not ready to win now is illogical, unless it's to get an amazing player (neither Stroman or Berrios was/is), or if the cost is non-elite prospects.  And there is the crux of the point I'm making--if the Mets and Jays saw SWR as an elite prospect, they would not have traded him in the circumstances they did.  So either SWR is actually elite, and both the Mets and Jays weren't smart enough to realize it (hilarious in the case of the Jays, who would have had to realize it only 2 years earlier), or SWR is not actually elite.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

You still haven't provided the logic for "a guy with the ceiling of a borderline #1 starter who has yet to start his service clock doesn't get traded twice unless there is a higher risk he doesn't reach that ceiling." Wait and trade for him in the offseason? So the Twins were only going to deal Berrios to the Blue Jays? They had no other offers and he'd just be there to get in the offseason? Blue Jays had no other offers for Stroman? They were only going to deal him to the Mets? There's no logic in that.

Joe Ryan's floor is AAAA pitcher who can't get away with his high fastball usage in the majors and never becomes anything. SWR's floor is minor leaguer without elite velocity who can never make it beyond AA. All you're doing is describing prospects and the inherent risk that comes with them. You are more than welcome to be higher on Ryan than SWR. Nothing wrong with that. But none of the arguments you've made provide the logic you're suggesting they do.

The logic is that #1 starters are the most valuable commodity in baseball.  Teams covet them, and will spend obscene amounts of money on them.  Getting one for 6 years, at a maximum of say, $40M, is the equivalent of drafting a quarterback, and watching him become immediately MVP-caliber.  As such, teams aren't going to give up on that lightly.  If SWR is truly that, why have two teams in the span of 3 years decided they no longer want to have him in their organization, but instead opted for a handful of extra starts from good-not-great pitchers?

It's true, the Jays may have been beaten out for Berrios in the offseason--assuming someone was going to beat their Martin/SWR offer (if they were willing to make it on July 31, why not in December)?  My point was that it's quite possible the Jays could have given up less to get Berrios.  The Mets could have given up less to get Stroman.  I think e can agree it's very unlikely they would have had to give up more.  As such, they're placing a pretty low premium on the possibility of SWR hitting his ceiling, since they were both willing to walk away from that in return for 12ish starts of #2 starters in non-playoff years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Declining to surrender prospect capital for established big leaguers at the deadline, and punting on a season in progress are not the same thing.  I'd argue that a team with a low chance to make the playoffs should never trade prospects in-season, unless the deal is just too good to pass up (like if the Twins had been able to get Trea Turner for Rooker and Wallner).  The point I was making is that if the Mets and Jays had waited until the upcoming offseason, they still could have traded for Stroman and Berrios, and possibly paid less (they certainly wouldn't have paid more).  As such, both clubs signaled they didn't value SWR's first 6 years of control all that highly, as they potentially gave it away for 12 starts from good-not-great pitchers in years they were not likely to make the playoffs.

I think you're mischaracterizing the 2019 Mets and 2021 Jays as teams where "the starts aren't perfectly aligned"--both teams were quite flawed, with very low playoff probabilities, but reason to hope for the future.  Making win-now moves for teams not ready to win now is illogical, unless it's to get an amazing player (neither Stroman or Berrios was/is), or if the cost is non-elite prospects.  And there is the crux of the point I'm making--if the Mets and Jays saw SWR as an elite prospect, they would not have traded him in the circumstances they did.  So either SWR is actually elite, and both the Mets and Jays weren't smart enough to realize it (hilarious in the case of the Jays, who would have had to realize it only 2 years earlier), or SWR is not actually elite.

I simply disagree with the premise that the deal was about SWR and not attempting to become better mid-season. Whether their playoff chances were low or not, they weren't astronomically low. They had legit chances to improve and took them.

This particularly applies to the 2019 Mets because #lolmets is definitely a thing for a reason. That franchise is so erratic, trying to make sense of their "plan" is often an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, going into July 31st, FanGraphs had the Jays' postseason odds at 33%. Given how they play in the AL East, that's worth taking a chance every time, especially if it improves chances the following season as well. It's not as if the Jays can just sit back and wait for a better window in that division.

[Cap'n Piranha]

10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I simply disagree with the premise that the deal was about SWR and not attempting to become better mid-season. Whether their playoff chances were low or not, they weren't astronomically low. They had legit chances to improve and took them.

This particularly applies to the 2019 Mets because #lolmets is definitely a thing for a reason. That franchise is so erratic, trying to make sense of their "plan" is often an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, going into July 31st, FanGraphs had the Jays' postseason odds at 33%. Given how they play in the AL East, that's worth taking a chance every time, especially if it improves chances the following season as well. It's not as if the Jays can just sit back and wait for a better window in that division.

I completely agree the Jays were trying to get better mid-season.  That they gave up SWR despite their less-than-favorable position, and for a guy who is not good enough to be a game 1 starter in the playoffs, is informative on how the Toronto organization views SWR.  If they were convinced he was going to be better than Berrios in 2023, do they give him up?  No chance.

I imagine even the Mets see the value in an 18 year old, highly regarded pitching prospect.

33% should not be a high enough bar to cash in chips for a run.  I imagine that teams who consistently raid their farm systems to try and capitalize on 33% chances to make the postseason very soon find themselves in position to no longer need to worry about making the postseason--because their odds go to 5%.  The fact that the Jays have 3 behomoths in their division should be all the reason they need to not chase--essentially the Jays attempted to open their window early, by all but guaranteeing it will close sooner as well.  Martin and SWR could have been key pieces in a 3-5 year window in a year or two.  Now they're both gone, and if the Jays miss the playoffs next year (hardly an impossibility), they will have given them up for essentially no pay-out.

[bean5302]

The Blue Jays are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot today, even with Berrios recently pitching poorly and taking 2 losses in his last 3 appearances. The Blue Jays are hungry, willing to spend money and they have a very talented core. Arguing teams shouldn't try to go for a World Series when their window is open is best left to the Twins' ownership.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The logic is that #1 starters are the most valuable commodity in baseball.  Teams covet them, and will spend obscene amounts of money on them.  Getting one for 6 years, at a maximum of say, $40M, is the equivalent of drafting a quarterback, and watching him become immediately MVP-caliber.  As such, teams aren't going to give up on that lightly.  If SWR is truly that, why have two teams in the span of 3 years decided they no longer want to have him in their organization, but instead opted for a handful of extra starts from good-not-great pitchers?

It's true, the Jays may have been beaten out for Berrios in the offseason--assuming someone was going to beat their Martin/SWR offer (if they were willing to make it on July 31, why not in December)?  My point was that it's quite possible the Jays could have given up less to get Berrios.  The Mets could have given up less to get Stroman.  I think e can agree it's very unlikely they would have had to give up more.  As such, they're placing a pretty low premium on the possibility of SWR hitting his ceiling, since they were both willing to walk away from that in return for 12ish starts of #2 starters in non-playoff years.

Couple things here. 1. You're changing your target now. Now you're arguing SWR isn't going to be a #1, but nobody on here has said he's going to be. I don't think his ceiling is #1 starter. You said you believe Joe Ryan is a better prospect than SWR and used SWR having been traded twice as evidence of that while ignoring that Joe Ryan was traded at what you agree is basically his ceiling. If you believe Joe Ryan basically is who he is now, as you stated earlier, then the Rays clearly don't think he's any sort of frontline starter or they would have had him in the big leagues, not traded him. SWR isn't a future ace and most people actually say his ceiling is Berrios level production. Why would the Jays not trade the hope of Berrios for the actual Berrios? The Twins got the hope for 6 years of a new Berrios plus a top 20-30 global prospect. It all makes sense to me.

2. I'm not saying the Jays may have been beaten out for Berrios in the offseason, I'm saying they 100% would have been beaten out for him at the deadline. Berrios wouldn't have been in a Twins uniform in the offseason and whoever traded for him was very unlikely to turn around and trade him for a lesser package than they had just given up so the Jays never would have had him. The Jays were competing against other teams to get Berrios. I'd be willing to bet a lot that SWR and Martin wasn't the first package they offered the Twins. But they realized they had to up their offer and they ended at SWR and Martin.

[Cap'n Piranha]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Blue Jays are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot today, even with Berrios recently pitching poorly and taking 2 losses in his last 3 appearances. The Blue Jays are hungry, willing to spend money and they have a very talented core. Arguing teams shouldn't try to go for a World Series when their window is open is best left to the Twins' ownership.

33% chance to make the playoffs, when only 1/6 of that is actually from winning the division, is not window open, in my opinion.  The Jays were actually 50.7% to make the playoffs on opening day, so in 4 months, they had already lost about a third of their chance.  The Jays essentially just tried (unsuccessfully) to open their window wider now, at the cost of it closing earlier than it would have.  Seems foolish to me.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It would seem my original hunch was likely closest to being correct— Woods Richardson was put on that development list for reasons of mechanics and not throwing strikes.

He had trouble in his first two appearances but they thought the answer was to let him pitch through it, which I like, and it looks like he found his footing again by the end. 

Another interesting question would be if they want to start him at High A Cedar Rapids, instead of AA Wichita, to start 2022, to give him a better chance to post some gaudy stat lines and give him some confidence. Thoughts? Long offseason, lots of time to see what happens.