Trio Hinting at Twins Pitching Pipeline

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I guess I read this differently than some others here. I read this as "hey, these guys don't have great stuff, weren't top prospects, and weren't really expected to be MLB contributors, but look what they're doing. If these low level guys have been developed into useable arms, even if it's just a short stretch, we can look at that and have hope that the big name guys can come up and be the kind of arms we need."

I didn't see anywhere in here that Ted suggests these 3 are the future of the Twins starting staff or are what we've all been hoping for in homegrown, top-of-the-rotation arms. He doesn't even suggest that this is what we should expect from the rest of the prospect arms and should be happy about it. My read on the article is simply that there's light at the end of the tunnel and reason for optimism. If the lesser thought of arms can produce at this level we can have reasonable expectations that 1 or 2 or 3 of the 10 bigger named guys can perform at the level we want/need.

This is exactly the point. They've developed pitchers with less likelihood of success and are now seeing results from them. The infrastructure necessary to develop pitchers required a complete overhaul. It's got guys like Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, and Sands looking like they could be real contributors. You'd hope those guys turn into #3's or better. None of it is ever going to be quick. You don't draft Chase Petty thinking he'll be here in a year or two. You're confident because the Ober's and Jax's of the system have hit BECAUSE of what you've put in place. Developing pitching is a numbers game.

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed.... But you can't do that if you don't have any pre arb pitching..... Now they do, apparently, so they can concentrate on fewer, better, free agents. 

This is also my hope. Having Bailey Ober, or Dobnak even, for 2021 and beyond gives them opportunities to target Stroman, Gausman, etc for the coming years. They were wrong in targeting a 4/5 rather than another three this season, but the more pre-arb hits they have, the better the group as a whole is.

[jgfellows]

I have a hard time getting excited about pitching prospects when the Twins are clearly never going to hold on to them after they have developed.  I'm tired of the Twins developing pitchers for other teams. (Yup still p***ed about Berrios)

[Battle ur tail off]

18 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

How do you develop #1, #2 types up to the majors when they are not to that point yet? Falvine and Co. are just supposed to take ober, Jax, beau f’n burrows and make them into aces? Come on man. Stop being so negative. Takes years to develop a prospect. Also with a whole lost season. Really?

No, they are supposed to draft and trade for those types of guys.

Raw talent is not something that can be coached. It is picked up and brought here by identifying it, then taking a chance and getting it here. Whether that is trading for it, drafting it with your top picks, paying more than the next team to bring them over here from a foreign country. 

This is where I don't agree with most of you here. I think you need to take some risks on pitching if you ever want the kind of it that equates to real winning. 

 

 

 

[Trov]

It is still early in their careers to say any of them will do much.  However, I agree with the premises that they could be a sign of what to come.  Many fans looked at this year and say the FO has failed need a new one.  These young guys are the first real example of guys being brought up, and some drafted, by the current FO.  I am excited to see what some of the other guys will bring.  

[bean5302]

Yeah, I think the argument that a cheap free agent comes with no risk is taking a very narrow viewpoint on the situation. Assigning anybody a 26 man roster spot without options or team control already comes with a substantial risk.

In order to make the playoffs, a team needs each player on the 26 man roster to put up about 1.75 WAR on average. Considering teams often carry 8 man bullpens who definitely won't average more than 1 WAR per reliever, that means teams need to get 2.25 wins from their starters and position players on average.

Giving a spot on the 26 man roster to a starting pitcher who isn't expected to produce at least 2.25 WAR means you're counting on the rest of your rotation and position players to make up for it.

Essentially, signing a cheap rotation pitcher means you need to pay for the salary AND doubly-so if the pitcher can't produce at least 2.25 WAR.

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, jgfellows said:

I have a hard time getting excited about pitching prospects when the Twins are clearly never going to hold on to them after they have developed.  I'm tired of the Twins developing pitchers for other teams. (Yup still p***ed about Berrios)

Clearly? I mean, I'm not sure that's fair when they just paid Kepler, Polanco, and Sano before hitting FA. I wanted Berrios and Buxton extended, however, if they're going to supplement the pre-arb pitchers with FA then getting an absolute haul from the Blue Jays was the right way to go.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

No, they are supposed to draft and trade for those types of guys.

Raw talent is not something that can be coached. It is picked up and brought here by identifying it, then taking a chance and getting it here. Whether that is trading for it, drafting it with your top picks, paying more than the next team to bring them over here from a foreign country. 

This is where I don't agree with most of you here. I think you need to take some risks on pitching if you ever want the kind of it that equates to real winning. 

 

 

 

No one said anything different than that last sentence..... 

[Mike Sixel]

They also just used their first round pick on a HS pitcher, sounds like taking a big risk to me.....

[TNtwins85]

3 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

No, they are supposed to draft and trade for those types of guys.

Raw talent is not something that can be coached. It is picked up and brought here by identifying it, then taking a chance and getting it here. Whether that is trading for it, drafting it with your top picks, paying more than the next team to bring them over here from a foreign country. 

This is where I don't agree with most of you here. I think you need to take some risks on pitching if you ever want the kind of it that equates to real winning. 

 

 

 

I would agree with you on most of this. I’m of the camp that every 1st round pick should be a high ceiling type of pitcher. I was dissatisfied with drafting sabato last year when there were hs arms available. This year I think we should have taken another HS pitcher instead of Noah Miller. I’m in the same camp as you pretty much. I only disagreed with the fact that you’re saying they haven’t developed one yet this year. I don’t know where the #1 was coming from this year in general as there wasn’t one to develop this year in the mlb that is. As far as drafting and signing high upside arms early and often. I think the twins should draft high upside arms with the first 3 picks every year. How do you increase your chance of winning the lottery? You buy lots of tickets!

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

I would agree with you on most of this. I’m of the camp that every 1st round pick should be a high ceiling type of pitcher. I was dissatisfied with drafting sabato last year when there were hs arms available. This year I think we should have taken another HS pitcher instead of Noah Miller. I’m in the same camp as you pretty much. I only disagreed with the fact that you’re saying they haven’t developed one yet this year. I don’t know where the #1 was coming from this year in general as there wasn’t one to develop this year in the mlb that is. As far as drafting and signing high upside arms early and often. I think the twins should draft high upside arms with the first 3 picks every year. How do you increase your chance of winning the lottery? You buy lots of tickets!

Do you have some basis for this strategy?  ie. Some form of articles or data regarding the success rates of draft picks?  My guess is that if you get outside the top 7-10 picks the success rate, at least in becoming a #1 type SP goes down substantially and when you get past the first 30-40 picks it goes way down.  So, I would want to know the success rate of position players drafted in the first 30-40 positions.  I think there are a lot of strong opinions formed by baseball fans with very little to support it.  For example, I heard a lot of the same rumblings about the Twins not signing the very top international free agents.  When, I actually went out an collected the data, the facts suggested a strategy of never spending over roughly $1.5M would yield better results.  It would be interesting to construct a list of the top 30 position players (by WAR) and the top 30 Pitchers for the past decade and determine the drafting position.