Trevor Larnach's struggles

[TheLeviathan]

Offensively I'm seeing what I would expect from a rookie - struggles as pitchers adjust to him and he adjusts to them and sees more success.  That's why you gotta let kids play.

[bean5302]

Yes. Larnach's defense is awful. He was always projected to be a poor defender. The Twins drafted him knowing he was likely a DH or 1B or at absolute best, a limited defender in the corners. If people are upset with Larnach in the corners, the blame should be on the shoulders of Falvey, Levine and Baldelli.

[h2oface]

17 hours ago, bighat said:

Larnach is indeed 24. But the: "He's young, just a kid" should be put into perspective with the list below:

Juan Soto is 22
Fernando Tatis Jr 22
Ronald Acuna 23
Luis Robert is 23
Vlad Guerrero Jr 22
Rafael Devers 24
Eloy Jimenez 24
Gleybar Torres 24
Ozzie Albies 24

The rookie numbers for all of the guys above were much better than what we're seeing from Larnach. Most of those guys already have All-Star berths under their belt and multiple years of very successful, eye-popping service time. I know players like this don't grow on trees, but they do seem to grow for some teams. They most noticeably also do not grow on the Minnesota Twins farm system.

"Larnach will be good because Justin Morneau's numbers were also bad at his age" seems to be a pretty flimsy supporting argument for TL's long-term. Why don't we all just admit that we're all just hoping better things will come from Larnach, but our faith is mostly based in the fact that admitting he's been a disappointment is just another tough pill to swallow in a disaster of a season.
 

I'm with you. I'm concerned about everyone on this team at this point, including Larnach, for sure. 24 is not all that young. 24 is time. 30, to most now is old, and not worth a long term contract. So when is a player not young? 25? 26? 27? When is the mean prime? Shame on you for comparing Larnach to others his age, or younger. He is an American, and needs coddling. He might be on the right team for that, with Baldelli at the helm. 

Hey, they could all be all-stars at some point too, but 24, to me, is time to be a star and get with it. We used to have higher expectations and hopes. I bet they all do for themselves. I hope all these guys want and desire to be more than just acceptable for their age. If they don't, there will be no championship or competing for one in their future, or us diehard fans' future. And let's face it - in the end, we all know he is a rookie called into action by this dark season, and are all rooting for Larnach to succeed past his floor and surpass his ceiling.

[bighat]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure that picking 4 potentially all-time-great hitters (Soto, Tatis, Acuna, Vlad Jr) and 5 other elite prospects is really useful perspective here. I've never seen anyone suggest Larnach is going to be a superstar. There's also a key difference between those 9 guys and Larnach...Larnach is American and the earliest he could have started getting professional coaching was at the age of 18.. Those other guys are international signings who spent their lives in baseball academies doing nothing but playing baseball and were signed at the ages of 16, 16, 16, 19, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16. The only one who wasn't getting minor league coaching in America by the age of 17 was playing in the Cuban professional leagues at the age of 16.

I don't see any useful comparison between those players and Larnach beyond pointing out that he isn't on a Hall of Fame trajectory in his early 20s.

Not to derail the conversation, but Bryce Harper made his MLB debut at 19. Larnach was a #1 draft pick out of a respected college program. 3-4 years of coaching at Oregon State isn't too shabby. It's not like he was stuck out in a cornfield by himself, the guy was getting coached up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, bighat said:

Not to derail the conversation, but Bryce Harper made his MLB debut at 19. Larnach was a #1 draft pick out of a respected college program. 3-4 years of coaching at Oregon State isn't too shabby. It's not like he was stuck out in a cornfield by himself, the guy was getting coached up.

And again, if you're comparing guys like Trevor Larnach to literal first ballot Hall of Famers, you're doing both objective analysis and Trevor Larnach a disservice. The overwhelming majority of MLB exists between bust and first ballot status and we should discuss where Larnach lands on that spectrum, not throw him out because he's not the 0.5% of the 0.5%.

[jorgenswest]

Would the 70th percentile projection be someone like Josh Willingham? His first full season was at age 27. He was not a good fielder or runner. He had a good 7 year stretch as a hitter with an OPS+ of 125. 

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, bighat said:

Not to derail the conversation, but Bryce Harper made his MLB debut at 19. Larnach was a #1 draft pick out of a respected college program. 3-4 years of coaching at Oregon State isn't too shabby. It's not like he was stuck out in a cornfield by himself, the guy was getting coached up.

I don't know what to say to you if your thought process is that Larnach is failing because he isn't as good as the 10 guys you've listed. You're saying over 99% of major league baseball players are failing. The comparisons you're trying to make just aren't realistic. Larnach, even being a first round pick, was never supposed to be what any of those 10 guys are. 

The hitters taken in the 1st rd of the 2018 draft: 2. Joey Bart (college), 3. Alec Bohm (college), 4. Nick Madrigal (college), 5. Jonathan India (college), 6. Jarred Kelenic (HS), 10. Travis Swaggerty (college), 12. Jordan Groshans (hs) 13. Connor Scott (HS), 17. Jordyn Adams (HS), 19. Nolan Gorman (HS), 20. Trevor Larnach (College), 21. Brice Turang (HS), 23. Anthony Seigler (HS), 24. Nico Hoerner (College), 25. Matt McLain (HS), 26. Triston Casas (HS), 28. Seth Beer (College), 29. Noah Naylor (HS)

Those are the guys we should be comparing Trevor to in his development. Not 10 of the best players on the planet. I'm not going to pull all the numbers from each of these guys, but knowing generally how the rest of these guys are doing right now Trevor is right in line with them. There's not a guy on this list that compares to the guys you've been listing. There's not a guy on this list who was even talked about as a potential all-star this year. Trevor still doesn't have the highest ceiling (think Kelenic wins that by a mile in this group), but is right in line with where he should be.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. Larnach's defense is awful. He was always projected to be a poor defender. The Twins drafted him knowing he was likely a DH or 1B or at absolute best, a limited defender in the corners. If people are upset with Larnach in the corners, the blame should be on the shoulders of Falvey, Levine and Baldelli.

Not sure how it is on Baldelli... And yes, I did not like the pick. But it is made.... So now what? I'd prefer him at DH.....or traded in a package for a SS or pitcher. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, h2oface said:

I'm with you. I'm concerned about everyone on this team at this point, including Larnach, for sure. 24 is not all that young. 24 is time. 30, to most now is old, and not worth a long term contract. So when is a player not young? 25? 26? 27? When is the mean prime? Shame on you for comparing Larnach to others his age, or younger. He is an American, and needs coddling. He might be on the right team for that, with Baldelli at the helm. 

Hey, they could all be all-stars at some point too, but 24, to me, is time to be a star and get with it. We used to have higher expectations and hopes. I bet they all do for themselves. I hope all these guys want and desire to be more than just acceptable for their age. If they don't, there will be no championship or competing for one in their future, or us diehard fans' future. And let's face it - in the end, we all know he is a rookie called into action by this dark season, and are all rooting for Larnach to succeed past his floor and surpass his ceiling.

Not once in my life did I expect everyone to be a star. So no, we didn't used to have higher expectations. Especially from a first year player. 

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not sure how it is on Baldelli... And yes, I did not like the pick. But it is made.... So now what? I'd prefer him at DH.....or traded in a package for a SS or pitcher. 

Baldelli chose to play Larnach at the corners as he's making out the lineup cards and choosing who plays from game to game. Sano can play DH or 1B. Kirilloff was his first choice to move to 1B instead of Larnach despite as Kirilloff is a much better corner outfielder. I do realize Larnach has virtually no time at 1B, it's still Baldelli's call on whether or not Larnach is a corner outfielder. 

I know folks are going to absolutely hate this, but Miguel Sano was probably going to be better in the OF than Larnach by the statistics. Even now, Nelson Cruz might be better in the outfield than Larnach, but I don't think it would have been worth the injury risk.

Larnach is not a good option in the corner outfield spot. I don't think anybody is debating that. If Larnach has to worry about his defensive value, he won't be making it in MLB. I have no issues trading Larnach if the Twins think they can get good value for him right now, but if/until his bat wakes up, he's not going to bring much back.

[bean5302]

When I see comments comparing a center field/catching prospect with a once in a lifetime talent at the plate (Bryce Harper) to Trevor Larnach who was taken 20th overall, I feel like it's just a crazy amount of frustration blowing up.

Harper was the universal, obvious, no contest first overall pick. He made Byron Buxon look like a roadside turd on draft day. Harper, at 17 (got his GED a year early for draft eligibility), was being called the best prospect in MLB history and it was universally accepted Harper was likely a Hall of Famer. At 17. Like seriously. Best prospect in MLB history vs 20th overall pick. Harper got comparisons to Alex Rodriguez (prime) at the plate and Joe Mauer (prime) at catcher.

Larnach's draft profile? Hits balls hard with potential plus power, can talk a walk, fringe corner outfield defense. He wasn't considered a sure fire MLB talent. Here is an EXCELLENT pre-draft analysis on Trevor Larnach http://dodgersdigest.com/2018/05/16/2018-mlb-draft-profile-of-1b-trevor-larnach-oregon-state-university/ It includes pre-draft rankings from a number of sources showing the Twins probably reached a bit for Larnach. It basically says Larnach was going to be fringy at the corners with a likely move to 1B where his bat was unlikely to play. He was drafted for his polish at college level rather than projectability and there was nothing to fall back on if his bat didn't play. Larnach pre-draft rank  2080 Baseball: 27 Baseball America: 27 ESPN: 47 FanGraphs: 13 MLB.com: 24 Perfect Game: N/A Scouting Baseball: 20

Btw, reaching is typical of this front office. They do a lot lot lot of reaching for prospects. Like this year. 2 of their first 3 guys were big to huge reaches based on their pre-draft rank and even Chase Petty was taken at his absolute highest rank position vs. a lot of sources ranking Petty much lower.

[Greglw3]

On 8/12/2021 at 7:39 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not concerned about it. Both his OPS+ and wRC+ are 94 overall in just under 300 plate appearances as a 24 year old. His K rate is a mildly alarming 34% but we all knew that would be a problem going in and it's also just part of today's game. Inversely, his BB rate is 10% so he's doing quite well on that front.

Lately, it appears he's been going inside-out more often, almost surely to the detriment of power. In the short-term as an adjustment to how pitchers are pitching him, that's an encouraging sign that he has the ability to diversify and not be trapped into a single hitting style that leads to prolonged slumps and inescapable holes in his swing (Miguel Sano, anyone?).

He doesn't even have half a full season under his belt yet, the ride is bound to be a little bumpy for awhile.

His splits per month:

Months

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
May	20	17	72	57	8	13	4	0	3	7	0	0	12	19	.228	.389	.456	.845	26	0	3	0	0	0	1	.286	145	138
June	23	21	92	82	11	21	4	0	2	6	0	0	6	28	.256	.326	.378	.704	31	2	3	0	1	0	0	.358	104	93
July	26	22	103	94	8	18	1	0	2	10	1	0	7	43	.191	.252	.266	.518	25	1	1	0	1	0	0	.320	51	42
August	8	7	26	20	2	6	3	0	0	4	0	0	5	10	.300	.462	.450	.912	9	0	1	0	0	0	0	.600	166	157

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2021.

I agree with you, Brock. While it’s been a bit painful to watch, I think Trevor is slowly adjusting to the world’s greatest pitchers’ arsenal of quality breaking stuff. I’m fairly confident he’ll be OK and using the rest of 2021 playing him is a good investment in his future. He might even be a candidate for an early extension.

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

And again, if you're comparing guys like Trevor Larnach to literal first ballot Hall of Famers, you're doing both objective analysis and Trevor Larnach a disservice. The overwhelming majority of MLB exists between bust and first ballot status and we should discuss where Larnach lands on that spectrum, not throw him out because he's not the 0.5% of the 0.5%.

I don't think anyone is "throwing him out". The question was.... if one was "disappointed". To me, being disappointed and throwing him out are not even close to the same thing. I'm disappointed when my guys strikeout but that doesn't mean I want to throw him off the team, or throw him out. Disappointment is not that big of a deal. And is fleeting.

I also wouldn't anoint any of the others mentioned as first ballot HOFers. None of them have a career to declare that for me, yet. Even Harper. All could be finished with this game well before they accumulate the career it will take.  The HOF prospect list is a lot like a top 100 prospect list. Potential is there, but that needs the career to get be a HOFer, let alone a fist ballot HOFer. We will soon find out just how much of a career it takes, when Joe Mauer becomes eligible and is on the ballot.

[stringer bell]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

His D is awful. As seen again tonight. That should have been a double.

Center fielder and second baseman need to back up the right fielder on a ball like that. I know it was Refsnyder in center and Polanco at second. I really don't blame Larnach for that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Would the 70th percentile projection be someone like Josh Willingham? His first full season was at age 27. He was not a good fielder or runner. He had a good 7 year stretch as a hitter with an OPS+ of 125. 

This is kind of what I’m thinking. Something in the Willingham/Cuddyer mold of hitting. Decent bat, bad glove, pretty good career overall. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is kind of what I’m thinking. Something in the Willingham/Cuddyer mold of hitting. Decent bat, bad glove, pretty good career overall. 

I think that's a fair 97% ceiling for Larnach. Something in the 3.0-3.5 WAR career year with his average year in the 2.0-2.5 WAR range. I think Larnach's 50% is Delmon Young.

[bighat]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

When I see comments comparing a center field/catching prospect with a once in a lifetime talent at the plate (Bryce Harper) to Trevor Larnach who was taken 20th overall, I feel like it's just a crazy amount of frustration blowing up.

Harper was the universal, obvious, no contest first overall pick. He made Byron Buxon look like a roadside turd on draft day. Harper, at 17 (got his GED a year early for draft eligibility), was being called the best prospect in MLB history and it was universally accepted Harper was likely a Hall of Famer. At 17. Like seriously. Best prospect in MLB history vs 20th overall pick. Harper got comparisons to Alex Rodriguez (prime) at the plate and Joe Mauer (prime) at catcher.

Larnach's draft profile? Hits balls hard with potential plus power, can talk a walk, fringe corner outfield defense. He wasn't considered a sure fire MLB talent. Here is an EXCELLENT pre-draft analysis on Trevor Larnach http://dodgersdigest.com/2018/05/16/2018-mlb-draft-profile-of-1b-trevor-larnach-oregon-state-university/ It includes pre-draft rankings from a number of sources showing the Twins probably reached a bit for Larnach. It basically says Larnach was going to be fringy at the corners with a likely move to 1B where his bat was unlikely to play. He was drafted for his polish at college level rather than projectability and there was nothing to fall back on if his bat didn't play. Larnach pre-draft rank  2080 Baseball: 27 Baseball America: 27 ESPN: 47 FanGraphs: 13 MLB.com: 24 Perfect Game: N/A Scouting Baseball: 20

Btw, reaching is typical of this front office. They do a lot lot lot of reaching for prospects. Like this year. 2 of their first 3 guys were big to huge reaches based on their pre-draft rank and even Chase Petty was taken at his absolute highest rank position vs. a lot of sources ranking Petty much lower.

Just to clarify, I wasn't comparing Larnach to Harper at all and I'm not sure anyone was.

I said that plenty of players that were Larnach's age or younger were stars in this league. Someone responded and told me that since those players were Latino, they had access to "professional coaching" for a much longer time, and most American born players are at a disadvantage and often don't get to the MLB level at a young age. I pointed out that Bryce Harper, an American born player, made his debut at 19.

It was just a side note, had nothing to do with Larnach.

Nobody expects Larnach to be Harper. I think what we hope is that Larnach can at least be Josh Willingham or Marlon Byrd or Mitch Moreland. We'd be thrilled if so.

[bean5302]

Also to clarify, I have no memory of who mentioned Harper. I think multiple people did. I didn't find it valuable to call anybody out by name as, again, I think most of this topic is just frustration.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Center fielder and second baseman need to back up the right fielder on a ball like that. I know it was Refsnyder in center and Polanco at second. I really don't blame Larnach for that.

It was six feet higher than he jumped, maybe more. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, h2oface said:

I also wouldn't anoint any of the others mentioned as first ballot HOFers. None of them have a career to declare that for me, yet. Even Harper. All could be finished with this game well before they accumulate the career it will take.  The HOF prospect list is a lot like a top 100 prospect list. Potential is there, but that needs the career to get be a HOFer, let alone a fist ballot HOFer. We will soon find out just how much of a career it takes, when Joe Mauer becomes eligible and is on the ballot.

Obviously, any player (like Mauer) can have their career derailed from "first ballot HoF" to "maybe HoF" in a heartbeat.

But we're comparing legendary players through their mid- and late-20s and Harper was mentioned.

Somehow, despite all the hype early in his career, Bryce Harper has become the most over-rated-under-rated player of my lifetime. He's a phenomenal baseball player who will likely reach ~50-ish wins when he's 30 years old. That's a first ballot Hall of Fame track, no matter what happens next.

[Mike Sixel]

Sent to AAA.... Gordon up.

[Dodecahedron]

I'm surprised this thread got so much traction.  I guess we can truly debate anything.

Larnach is still just a prospect.

[RpR]

If I were a betting man, I would put money on Larnach's sluggish field play had some thing to do with it.

[yeahyabetcha]

19 minutes ago, RpR said:

If I were a betting man, I would put money on Larnach's sluggish field play had some thing to do with it.

Agreed.  Even Rooker looks like a better option in the outfield defensively lately .

[Taildragger8791]

On 8/14/2021 at 5:56 PM, bean5302 said:

I think that's a fair 97% ceiling for Larnach. Something in the 3.0-3.5 WAR career year with his average year in the 2.0-2.5 WAR range. I think Larnach's 50% is Delmon Young.

Delmon Young has a very different profile. He hit for average, didn't draw walks, didn't strike out a ton, and didn't hit for power. He was a quintessential "empty average" hitter. Larnach is supposed to be the opposite in pretty much each of those categories. Although the power disappeared after his nice start, he still projects to hit for power (assuming he hits at all).

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Delmon Young has a very different profile. He hit for average, didn't draw walks, didn't strike out a ton, and didn't hit for power. He was a quintessential "empty average" hitter. Larnach is supposed to be the opposite in pretty much each of those categories. Although the power disappeared after his nice start, he still projects to hit for power (assuming he hits at all).

The 50/50 ceiling assumes Larnach never reaches his projected potential. Larnach has not shown power. Larnach walks more and strikes out less, but his hit tool looks much worse. Similar OBP, similar ISO. Your "projection" is the "supposed to be" 90% version of Larnach, not the 50/50 chance or what he's been so far. Larnach's ISO = 127. Young's career ISO = 138.

There's also the chance we've already seen the best Larnach will ever show at the MLB level.

[Taildragger8791]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The 50/50 ceiling assumes Larnach never reaches his projected potential. Larnach has not shown power. Larnach walks more and strikes out less, but his hit tool looks much worse. Similar OBP, similar ISO. Your "projection" is the "supposed to be" 90% version of Larnach, not the 50/50 chance or what he's been so far. Larnach's ISO = 127. Young's career ISO = 138.

There's also the chance we've already seen the best Larnach will ever show at the MLB level.

Ok, so even if he doesn't hit for power it's still low average, high walk & strikeout rate vs. high average, low walk & strikeout rate. Both suck at defense so they have that in common, but at least with Delmon we got to see him run like he was holding a penny in his cheeks. So that was fun.

[RpR]

Delmon Young

2010	24	MIN		153	613	570	77	170	46	1	21	112	5	4	28	81	.298	.333	.493	.826	124	281	16	6	0	9	5	*7/HD	MVP-10

 

I just do not see Larnach every doing this well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Delmon Young

2010	24	MIN		153	613	570	77	170	46	1	21	112	5	4	28	81	.298	.333	.493	.826	124	281	16	6	0	9	5	*7/HD	MVP-10

I just do not see Larnach every doing this well.

Sure, but that season was an extreme outlier for Young. It was literally the only season where he played 100+ games and wasn’t a below average hitter by wRC+. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

Delmon Young

2010	24	MIN		153	613	570	77	170	46	1	21	112	5	4	28	81	.298	.333	.493	.826	124	281	16	6	0	9	5	*7/HD	MVP-10

 

I just do not see Larnach every doing this well.

Talk about cherry picking!