In Defense of the Twins Front Office

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There are many teams sustaining a model that very involves signing 4+ year free agents.  Those same teams trade for guys with multiple years of control but they are never the type of established front of the rotation guys called for here.  There should be several examples from Tampa Bay / Oakland / Milwaukee / Cleveland if your premise is valid.  How many can you name?

I'd be ok with trading for a number 3 with years of control....but my point remains, Are there teams with no minor league pipeline in place (which it wasn't) acquiring 2 new starters on 1 year deals over and over doing well? They did it for two years, but at some point, it is HARD to do it over and over (sometimes there aren't good FAs in your budget, for example, certainly not often 2). That doesn't even count trying to build a bullpen with only 2-3 returning guys. 

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The Royals won the WS without an ace.

But their pen was one of the best ever, especially the 7/8/9th inning guys. No ace(s) and horrible pen is what the story is here. How is that working for you?

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

The Tigers and Twins were in much different situations leading into this season.  The Twins were expected to contend and the Tigers...not so much.  A contending team can't stash away a guy in Baddoo's position and need established major league players.  The Tigers could afford to take that risk.  This one just worked in Detroit's favor.

Expected. That might be the biggest problem. They expected to be good, and seemed to ignore the last 4o days, over half, of the short 2020 season, in which they were barely a .500 team, and moving downward, both at the plate and on the mound. And they went 0-3 (0-6 total) in the playoffs. That continued this year, and there was no upgrade in any of the pitching. Horrible choices. Horrible. And Burrows on the mound.... for 2 innings yesterday! Still making them.

[mike8791]

Nick, appreciate your addressing this FO issue head-on!  In this trash heap of a season, the only thing we can really look forward to is next year so the abilities of these two guys should be scrutinized.  After all, we have almost 5 full seasons at the helm to analyze their performance.  While their missteps have been magnified this season, any realistic observer has to acknowledge the lost 2020 season, along with the late minor league start this season, has hampered their development system.  So put me in the group acknowledging they should be given one more year to prove their plan is viable.

But they must be put on a very short lease.  If this team continues their sub .500 play by the All Star break next year, they must be dismissed.  We must see some signs that at least some of their draft picks and trade pickups start producing at the big league level.  As Gleeman noted in The Athletic, other than Cruz, their FA signings have been failures.  Their midseason trades have failed(does anyone still think the Pressley trade was wise?).  Their top draft choices have been injury-prone or have fallen short of expectations.  With lack of pitching plaguing the Ryan-era teams,  why did the Wonder Boys eschew pitchers for position players?  They had the #1 choice in 2017 and went for Lewis, who now is not even expected to qualify as a big league SS.

I have to question some of their personnel decisions as well.  Their first pitching coach, Alston, flamed out.  Wes Johnson was a gutsy move, but what pitchers have actually improved since he's been hired?  They seem to have struck gold in hiring Rowson, but failed to retain him, then promoted from within two assistants with unproven talent.  And the hiring of Rocco was also a head scratcher.  No, I'm not ignoring his first 2 season successes, but not only are his in-game decisions head-scratching, but more importantly, his laid back manner, particularly a failure to stress fundamentals, has shown up all too often on the field this season.  While he cannot be blamed for the FO's player acquisition failures, does anyone think he has the chops for ending our playoff futility?

And finally, let's not overlook ownership's role in this team's failures.  Has Pohlad ever stated his only goal is to bring a world championship to the TC?  He hires conservative, risk-averting GMs like Ryan and Falvey, both of whom either seem to have the same banker's mentality as Pohlad or just lack the ability found elsewhere on low to mid market clubs that are consistently successful.  Sure, let Falvey have another chance here, but give him payroll room to go after some top FAs this offseason and see what he can accomplish.  There can be no more excuses for another year of failure.  We Twin fans deserve better!

[ND-Fan]

I never thought this group was end all and smartest team that ever has come to Twins when they first arrived for the Twins. I think the media liked having something new to talk about and these guys offered some new to write about and cover. A number thought with all their technology this was going to solve our problems but it has not it did improve the the team in the short term but in becoming technology  dependent we lost human eye equation that Terry Ryan brought to the Twins organization and what he was building up again when he was let go. These guys built on players Ryan had scouted and signed into this organization but as we are loosing these players were seeing cupboard hasn't been replenished with few ready players they have been drafted.  Also they were going to finally have somebody that could improve their pitching by drafting and developing pitchers but they seemed to follow same pattern that Ryan has. I have my doubts they can turn this around quick enough please fan base and then ownership when they start seeing the results. I wish we could get combo mix of what Terry Ryan brought human touch and ability to judge talent and now Falvey go by numbers to improve play of talented players drafted and developed for the Twins. Also for Twins to become more successful ownership is going to need to be more active stance and willing to take risks for winning a championship. To be successful there are times you need to take risks and there will be failures but ownership has to become active in this otherwise management will never will or not capable of taking such risks. The bottom line is were in for never period of loosing until we acquire more talent to build a team because it appears window is closing very quickly on the talent we have now.

[h2oface]

"And in any case, Falvey wasn't really hired to sign pitchers. He was hired to develop them."

I don't agree. This is semantics. They go hand in hand. If you trade for prospect pitching, that has been partially developed in other orgs, you can't really take complete credit for developing them. That is just about all the pitching in the pipeline. Traded for prospect pitching. Every FO is hired to sign pitchers. Prospects and free agents. These guys were not only about developing, but identifying! It seems, with the success of those they let go or traded away for virtually nothing, and the failures of those they have chosen to fill immediate needs, they could get better at identifying. A lot better.

[LewFordLives]

3 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

  I noticed Zack Littell got a save the other night for SF - why we give up on him, and don't give up on some others I'll never know? 
 

Speaking of guys they gave up on......that move was just bizarre.  Littell was actually pretty good in 2019. 2020 was a lost season because of injury and then they just cut him loose, even though they knew they were going to have to find bullpen reinforcements going into 2021. The move was odd then, and it looks downright dumb now. Do they know something we don't?

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m not a big fan of the FO at the moment, but they’re not going anywhere. Terry Ryan stuck around long past his expiration date, and the Pohlads aren’t ones to make knee jerk decisions. 

Aaron Gleeman earlier this year had a great analysis about their free agent signings since joining the Twins. It’s been mostly bad. Nelson Cruz was their saving grace and makes the overall picture look better. Everyone else they spent $183 million and received 16 WAR in value. 

Similarly, Gleeman examined every trade deadline deal up to 2021. And the majority of trades were inconsequential  or just flat out bad. 

I guess we’ll find out if these new pitchers from this trade deadline will provide more value than the other trades in the past. 

$183M for 16 WAR is $11.4M/WAR.  In a market where the going rate is $8M-$10M/WAR, that's not great, but it's also not bad.  Throw Cruz back in, with his $34ish million and 7.5ish WAR, and now they're at $207M for 23.5 WAR, or $8.8M/WAR.  If anything, this shows why spending big in FA should be viewed as a last resort.

[Brock Beauchamp]

56 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think it's fair to say a franchise that led all of baseball in losses the previous 6 years and coming off a season with the most losses in Twins history was lacking vitality and vigor. 

You could say their system was healthy at that time but... was it? Their top 10 in 2016 included Nick Gordon (#4), Tyler Jay (#5), Stephen Gonsalves (#6), Alex Meyer (#8), Kohl Stewart (#9) and Nick Burdi (#10). I think you're looking through a really rose-colored hindsight lens to suggest this franchise was in anything other than a dire state when new leadership took over. TR's front office had been rebuilding fruitlessly for half a decade. 

Yep. This front office inherited some nice positional pieces but good lord, look at those pitching "prospects". Every single one of them bombed out and without looking I'm pretty sure none of them even accumulated 100 MLB innings in their careers.

[HuskerTwinsFan]

I'd love to see a deep dive on the transition from 2020, when the Twins, Guardians and White Sox essentially ended in a virtual tie, to 2021, when the White Sox have a 10.5 game lead on Cleveland (which is at .500) and a 19 game lead on the Twins.  Isn't it fair to evaluate front offices against their competitor's results (if only for one year)?  What decisions were made by the various front offices?

What worked and what didn't?  Which players were acquired (free agents, trades or promotions)?  How did injuries and IL stints affect their performances?    In particular, what changes were made to pitching staffs (starters and relievers) that made the difference?  Maybe the analysis should be broken into parts--starting pitching, relief staff and position players and possibly more (initial roster formulation vs. who has actually played so far).  I suspect that such an analysis could provide significant into the discussion of how the various front offices actually faired in 2021.  This is far beyond my ability to do well. Is anyone game for the task?

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, cjvirnig said:

Still, nobody should downplay what a disaster the 2021 season has been. It has been arguably the most disappointing season in club history relative to expectations. The front office not only whiffed on its free agent pitching acquisitions, but it also whiffed on a few prospects that were traded away only to immediately find success with other clubs. By no means should anyone be fired -- and only rubes would be calling for that at this point. But a couple of key points certainly ARE debatable at this point.  1) This team has fallen light years behind the White Sox and while the Twins are living proof that fortunes can change quickly, it sure seems unlikely that the Twins are going to be able to supplant Chicago for at least 2-3 years.  And, 2) Given how disastrously the 2021 season has gone across the board, it's also fair to question the idea that this front office has what it takes to be one of the truly elite units in the game.  As Nick points out, they've proven to be wholly competent. And that's worth something, to be sure. But by no means have they proven themselves to be the type of elite front office that can usher the club to consistent quality year after year.  Despite the high points of their tenure (2017, 2019, and probably 2020), there have also been a couple of terrible years (2018 and 2021). I suspect we'll learn a lot about the fortitude of this group over the course of the next 12 months. 

Not a fan of calling someone a rube if they have the very reasonable opinion that those that have failed spectacularly in the last two years should be replaced.

I honestly think that coaxing Jim Leyland out of retirement would have resulted in much better in-game decisions than Rocco has made this year (and for 3 years frankly).

Then there’s the part about the players he had. In my other post I named all the players the FO let go in the last two years that have directly led from 101 wins to one of the worst teams in baseball.

Another thing the FO has done that I think was a big mistake was firing Molitor and hiring Baldelli. IMO, Molitor was a very good strategic and tactical manager who was aggressive with his bullpen and displayed a burning fire to win.

Now if you want to compare me to Rube Walker or Rube Marquardt, I might think it reasonable. 

[Greglw3]

2 minutes ago, HuskerTwinsFan said:

I'd love to see a deep dive on the transition from 2020, when the Twins, Guardians and White Sox essentially ended in a virtual tie, to 2021, when the White Sox have a 10.5 game lead on Cleveland (which is at .500) and a 19 game lead on the Twins.  Isn't it fair to evaluate front offices against their competitor's results (if only for one year)?  What decisions were made by the various front offices?

What worked and what didn't?  Which players were acquired (free agents, trades or promotions)?  How did injuries and IL stints affect their performances?    In particular, what changes were made to pitching staffs (starters and relievers) that made the difference?  Maybe the analysis should be broken into parts--starting pitching, relief staff and position players and possibly more (initial roster formulation vs. who has actually played so far).  I suspect that such an analysis could provide significant into the discussion of how the various front offices actually faired in 2021.  This is far beyond my ability to do well. Is anyone game for the task?

One thing I’m sure of is that the White Sox FO has totally, thoroughly and completely drubbed the Twins FO over the last 2-3 years. It’s stunning, really!

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Another thing the FO has done that I think was a big mistake was firing Molitor and hiring Baldelli. IMO, Molitor was a very good strategic and tactical manager who was aggressive with his bullpen and displayed a burning fire to win.

Woof, I so strongly disliked Molitor's bullpen management. He would use and abuse his three best guys until they were ineffective or injured. While a burning fire to win is nice and all, the baseball season remains a 162 game slog and a pitching staff must be managed with that at idea at the forefront of the manager's mind nearly 100% of the time.*

*this was something Gardy was excellent at for a very long time, IMO

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, Greglw3 said:

One thing I’m sure of is that the White Sox FO has totally, thoroughly and completely drubbed the Twins FO over the last 2-3 years. It’s stunning, really!

In that span, there are few front offices that I would put above them.  They took the bull by the horns and got aggressive and they're reaping the benefits of it.

[LewFordLives]

11 minutes ago, ND-Fan said:

 I wish we could get combo mix of what Terry Ryan brought human touch and ability to judge talent and now Falvey go by numbers to improve play of talented players drafted and developed for the Twins. 

Agreed. I think Ryan was a brilliant scout and talent evaluater, but his fault was in management of the 40 man roster and clinging to guys who should have been let go. (He lost me over the Matt Guerrier fiasco.) This new front office seems to go the other way, being too aggressive in cutting guys that maybe deserve a second look. Maybe we can't have one or the other and are idiots for thinking so, but I completely understand that comment.

[Mike Sixel]

People realize the WS traded off stars to get some of the stars they have now, right? That they were building for the future the last few years? That if their plan worked, they'd be good?

The Twins built a winner in 19 and 20, and couldn't maintain that. From what I read, that's pretty much to be expected in MLB for mid market or smaller teams.....that you can't win forever unless you have lots of money (and even then.....).

I don't love the FO....and I'm not sure if they are great at their job or not....but no, Ryan wasn't building anything good. And yes, this FO took an AWFUL team and won two division championships. They deserve at least one more year to show us they can have a pitching system, imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

One thing I’m sure of is that the White Sox FO has totally, thoroughly and completely drubbed the Twins FO over the last 2-3 years. It’s stunning, really!

This is a lot easier to do when your team loses 95, 100, and 89 games while the other team is trying to contend, as was the case for the White Sox vs. the Twins from 2017-2019.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, LewFordLives said:

Agreed. I think Ryan was a brilliant scout and talent evaluater, but his fault was in management of the 40 man roster and clinging to guys who should have been let go. (He lost me over the Matt Guerrier fiasco.) This new front office seems to go the other way, being too aggressive in cutting guys that maybe deserve a second look. Maybe we can't have one or the other and are idiots for thinking so, but I completely understand that comment.

Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart, and Tyler Jay say hi.

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

.........You could say their system was healthy at that time but... was it? Their top 10 in 2016 included Nick Gordon (#4), Tyler Jay (#5), Stephen Gonsalves (#6), Alex Meyer (#8), Kohl Stewart (#9) and Nick Burdi (#10). .......

Looking back at this........ is real depressing.

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is a lot easier to do when your team loses 95, 100, and 89 games while the other team is trying to contend, as was the case for the White Sox vs. the Twins from 2017-2019.

While true, when their window of opportunity opened, they blew the window right out of the frame.  Frankly, I'm jealous of what they accomplished in relative short order.

[LewFordLives]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart, and Tyler Jay say hi.

Very funny. Point taken.  But look at all the guys he plucked out of obscurity from other farm systems.....Joe Mays, Kyle Lohse, Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, David Ortiz (ouch, I know what you're going to say).  He took Mauer even though the national media was telling him to take Prior or Texeira.

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is a lot easier to do when your team loses 95, 100, and 89 games while the other team is trying to contend, as was the case for the White Sox vs. the Twins from 2017-2019.

But yet, the Dodgers and the Rays seem to do it with a lot lower draft picks every year...... but easier? probably. Seems the guys that go through the Tampa FO system do well when they leave. Giants haven't taken long to rise to the top, either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, wsnydes said:

While true, when their window of opportunity opened, they blew the window right out of the frame.  Frankly, I'm jealous of what they accomplished in relative short order.

Oh, I'm not diminishing what the White Sox are doing but it's hard to compare two franchises that are in different stages of competition. While the Twins were drafting low and competing, the White Sox were effing terrible, to put it bluntly.

If the White Sox bomb out of the postseason and the loss of Madrigal burns them badly while the Twins bounce back and are competitive soon, will the Twins then be geniuses?

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, h2oface said:

But yet, the Dodgers and the Rays seem to do it with a lot lower draft picks every year...... but easier? probably. Seems the guys that go throw the Tampa FO system do well when they leave. Giants haven't taken long to rise to the top, either.

For sure, but you just listed the two best-run organizations in all of baseball. 28 teams are jealous of what those teams accomplish on a yearly basis.

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I'm not diminishing what the White Sox are doing but it's hard to compare two franchises that are in different stages of competition. While the Twins were drafting low and competing, the White Sox were effing terrible, to put it bluntly.

If the White Sox bomb out of the postseason and the loss of Madrigal burns them badly while the Twins bounce back and are competitive soon, will the Twins then be geniuses?

For sure.  I wasn't trying to really compare them either.  Just noting that the Sox very quickly leap-frogged most of the league in pretty short order by identifying what they wanted and going out to get it.  And then this season, they kept going by getting even better at the deadline shoring up weaknesses and keeping up with the Joneses.  That's not what this team did when they had that opportunity in 2019.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

For sure.  I wasn't trying to really compare them either.  Just noting that the Sox very quickly leap-frogged most of the league in pretty short order by identifying what they wanted and going out to get it.  And then this season, they kept going by getting even better at the deadline shoring up weaknesses and keeping up with the Joneses.  That's not what this team did when they had that opportunity in 2019.

Definitely, and I was really impressed by how aggressive the Sox were up until the Madrigal trade. I think that will end up being reckless and wasteful for yet another aging right-handed reliever.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Very funny. Point taken.  But look at all the guys he plucked out of obscurity from other farm systems.....Joe Mays, Kyle Lohse, Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, David Ortiz (ouch, I know what you're going to say).  He took Mauer even though the national media was telling him to take Prior or Texeira.

None of which were in his second term. He was good the first time, but awful the second time. Which is too bad. He really seems like a nice guy.

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Definitely, and I was really impressed by how aggressive the Sox were up until the Madrigal trade. I think that will end up being reckless and wasteful for yet another aging right-handed reliever.

Agreed, the Madrigal trade was brow raising.  I'm sure that one wasn't easy, but we'll see if it works out for them.  the AL is rather ripe for the taking, so I can't blame them too much for pushing all of their chips in.  

[In My La Z boy]

To add - I was as done with Terry Ryan as most, but it seems to me Terry didn't micro manage the on field game stuff. Watching most games this year, I feel like Rocco is being told what to do more often than not. This front office wants to manage games and I think that's a problem. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

For sure.  I wasn't trying to really compare them either.  Just noting that the Sox very quickly leap-frogged most of the league in pretty short order by identifying what they wanted and going out to get it.  And then this season, they kept going by getting even better at the deadline shoring up weaknesses and keeping up with the Joneses.  That's not what this team did when they had that opportunity in 2019.

I agree with that last sentence for sure. When your window is open, leap thru it. You might have injuries, or regression or FAs might want to make more elsewhere......very few people thought this team would be bad, but it is. What if they had gone more all in 2019? We'll never know, as only the McPhail led Twins ever did that (and, what do you know.....it worked!).