If Berrios is dealt, what does the 2022 rotation look like?

[bean5302]

22 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

SP1--Gausman, on a 5/$125M (6/$150M with that sixth year being an option, $10M buyout if needed to seal the deal)

I suppose it's possible Gausman gets to 5 / $125MM, but I don't think Stroman gets much more than that and I'd definitely rather have Stroman. I mean... you have to think that offer pretty much guaranteed gets Berrios extended right now if the Twins made it.

[Cap'n Piranha]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I suppose it's possible Gausman gets to 5 / $125MM, but I don't think Stroman gets much more than that and I'd definitely rather have Stroman. I mean... you have to think that offer pretty much guaranteed gets Berrios extended right now if the Twins made it.

I'd be ok with Stroman too--Gausman has really nice peripherals, and doesn't have Stroman's recent injury history.  I also don't think Berrios signs for 5/$125M right now--he may sign for that in December 2022, but I think that would be a case of the market not materializing as Berrios' hopes.  I have a suspicion Berrios wants to clearly outdo Wheeler's pre-2020 contract of 5/$118M, based on being younger and healthier in December 2022 than Wheeler was in December 2019 (plus it being 3 years later).  So if Berrios believes his worst-case scenario in 16 months is 5/$125M, you're definitely not getting him for that now.

So the advantage of signing Gausman or Stroman is that at you get a comparable or better pitcher for the same price (potentially a tinge lower), but also get 2-3 additional pieces that can help push the team forward, or be flipped for more veteran talent.  Means has been thrown out, but I'm not super high on a guy with very little track record and about to turn 29, with pretty shaky peripherals.  I'd target Marquez or Kelly from the D-Backs instead, especially if the return for Berrios has 2 pitchers at the AA or higher level.  In that scenario, the Twins have 9 young starters at AA or higher (Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Ober, Ryan, Strotman, Sands, an the two new guys), so turning 2 or 3 into more young but established MLB pitching could help rebuild 2022/2023 pretty quick.

[bean5302]

I definitely understand where you're coming from on the advantage for the Twins, it's just Berrios is going to make maybe $10MM next year. If the Twins had offered him 5 / 125 or a 6 / 150 including an option, including a replacement of his 2022 salary, I just find it hard to believe Berrios wouldn't have jumped at it or at least we'd have heard about it in a leak. Of course, the fact we've heard a lot on Buxton's situation and nothing on Berrios may just point to Buxton or his agent being the leak.

[nicksaviking]

Outside of the trades for Odorizzi and Maeda, the front office has been fairly predictable. They obviously need to miss more bats so I bet that's what they'll target. Scherzer, and Verlander are vets and have already made a bazillion dollars so they will probably pick championship clubs or some specific destinations so I don't see much romance there. Instead I'd predict they'll chase Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon and Noah Syndergaard.

But I'd like to see the rotation filled out with the upside prospects. So Balazovic, Windor, Ryan and Strotman. Duran if he can get back on track. Ryan and Strotman are prizes they just bought, so I could see them getting the inside tracks; got to show off what you won to impress the ladies. Ober is doing better than I expected so I suppose he'll get another look. Sands and Jax don't do anything for me.

But back to the trades of Odorizzi and Maeda, those were the front offices best moves. They need to try that again. And again, and again.

[bean5302]

Agree entirely. If I were a betting person (which I'm not cause it's boring to me haha), I'd wildly guess some places like this:

• Verlander - Tigers
• Kershaw - Dodgers
• Scherzer - Giants
• Greinke - Dodgers
• Syndergaard - Mets
• Stroman - Red Sox
• Gausman - Giants
• Gray - Tigers
• Cobb - Yankees
• Cueto - Twins
• Morton - Braves
• Kikuchi - Mariners
• Duffy - Royals
• Pineda - Twins
• Arrieta - Orioles 
• Hamels - Rays
• Lester - Retirement

Please keep in mind, I hate the names chosen for the Twins here.

[TheLeviathan]

Hopefully, by the all-star game next year, younger and much more promising with guys like Duran, Balazovic, Ryan, etc.

If not the conversations get a lot more difficult across the organization.

[Rosterman]

Right now - MAEDA. Looks like Ober is locked into a spot, as is Dobnak, unless he implodes.

 

The hope WAS that we would get to see Duran and Balazovic this season. We still might see Balazovic.

 

Barnes is also a bet for consideration. We will see more of him once everything shakes out. We will also see more of Griffin Jax. I'm a Jax fan, but I suspect that he may not have much of a future with the Twins.

 

Strotman is a definite.

 

 

The Twins still have Thorpe (rehabbing in Florida) and Smeltzer in the mix. Thorpe ahs to stick in 2022. I hope he gets some innings in September and can be a long-man out of the pen, at the least.

 

Otherwise, the pickings are slim. It all depends how the Twins handle roster spots. 

 

Winder and Sands would be next on the list. Neither have to be 40-manned, I believe. And expect them to pitch in the Fall League.

 

Chandler Shepherd and Albers might get a shot as the season winds down, but don't see a need to keep them on the 40-man.

 

So. for the rotation, the Twins shall be in full FREE AGENT buy mode. Sure they can talk to Pineda again (and Cruz might come back...who knows). 

So right now...chills...Madea, Ober, Dobnak, Strotman, Barnes, Balazovic with Smeltzer and Jax in the wings, Duran and Sands and Winder on the horizon.

 

 

Gonna miss one more year of Berrios, who will be pitching his best wherever he is looking for a huge payday.

 

The Twins will have some interesting bullpen arms to think about, Top of the list is Hamilton. Someone like Gore might be in the mix. Moran and Cano are also on the verge and should get September looksees.

[DocBauer]

I'll bite, briefly, with less than a day an assume Berrios is moved.

I have little concern about the 4 and 5 spots. Complain or laugh at me, but those last 2 spots are open to Dobnak, (healthy and given a role he's comfortable with), Ober, (showing real potential), Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Ryan, Strotman with, Barnes and Jax maybe, but probably more pen options, and Sands and Canterino just behind due to IP at their level in 2021.

There are so many talented options I just listed to provide options for the 4 and 5 spots...not including anyone brought onboard over the next 12hrs....to provide depth and competition, and hope and flexibility. And I will not discuss anyone for bullpen options even in the temporary as that's kind of a given, at this point as that is not the discussion at hand.

The Twins need a quality SP to compete for a top 3 spot WITH Berrios. Without him opens a rather black hole depending on whether the team expects to re-build the pen and contend. Without Berrios, we need TWO quality SP, one of whom has to be the equivalent of Berrios as a replacement. How in the hell do you do that?!

You either pull a rabbit out of the hat like you did with Odorizzi or Maeda, or you take a calculated high risk, high reward option like  Synderaard or Verlander, etc. You pony up big $ on some sort of 1yr or 2yr deal and run with it because you believe in your lineup and pitching depth and additional moves to re-build the pen. And then you re-sign Pineda, or someone similar, to be your 3rd starter. 

Crazy? Maybe. But I maintain there is a lot to like for the lineup and depth. There appears to be enough $ available in 2022 for one big gamble, a solid #3 option, as well as addressing the pen without blowing the "proposed" budget all to hell. 

Still comes down to contending in 2022 or 2023. I think if the FO is smart enough, and shrewd enough, they could make BOTH work with an easy $150-ish payroll.

[AlwaysinModeration]

1. Syndergaard (4/80)

2. Maeda

3. Ober

4. Balazovic

5. Ryan

Of course, if the Berrios trade nets a MLB ready starter, he might crack the rotation. Josiah Gray would have fit that description nicely.  Not sure Mackenzie Gore does-needs more time at AAA.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO the idea of planning on Ober being given a spot in the rotation next year is gross, he is on a inning and pitch count this year, and he will be again next year, if we are to believe you can't make a big jump in innings. I am not saying he can't compete for a spot and actually win a spot, but if the Twins FO right now is penciling him to be one of the first 5 starters next year that is terrible. (Same thing with Dodnak)

[wsnydes]

I'd be disappointed if anyone was penciled into a slot for next year aside from Maeda and any future free agent signings.  Beyond that, there's no reason not to have an open competition for the remaining rotation spots.  I don't really expect any trade acquisitions to be established enough to warrant it either, but I suppose there is that potential.

[Loosey]

I think the team can put together a rotation that is better than this year even without Berrios.  They likely will not have 1 guy as good as Berrios but depending on what they get back, who they sign and if even 1 or 2 minor league arms are competent at the Major League level this team could put together a rotation I believe is good enough to be wild card level competitive in 2022 and hopefully back to serious contention by 2023 assuming Maeda is closer to last year than this.  Realistically, he's probably somewhere in the middle or what he has done over the last month.

Assuming Berrios and Pineda are dealt would like to believe 1 MLB ready arm comes back.  I also think/hope Pineda come back on a contract similar to what he has now in the $10-$12MM range.

Maeda

Pineda

Prospect (Winder/Strotman/Ryan/guy who hasn't been traded for yet)

Free Agent

One of the guys we currently have as 5th/swingman starter (Ober/Dobnak) 

Definitely not going to make the Dodgers blush with that, but it eliminates Happ and Shoemaker with guys who are hopefully better next year and develop them for future years.

Now about the bullpen....

 

[Mike Sixel]

I can't believe people think Jax can be a starter. I also don't think ober or dobnak are.... At least I'd hope they have three or four better options.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't believe people think Jax can be a starter. I also don't think ober or dobnak are.... At least I'd hope they have three or four better options.....

I'm interested in seeing a lot more of Ober if he can stay healthy. All that time off and the increased velocity intrigues me as a back of the rotation option.

Dobnak... I need to see him healthy again before I put him in any plans.

Throw Jax in the rotation tomorrow because "why not?" But he's not on the radar for 2022 at this time.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm interested in seeing a lot more of Ober if he can stay healthy. All that time off and the increased velocity intrigues me as a back of the rotation option.

Dobnak... I need to see him healthy again before I put him in any plans.

Throw Jax in the rotation tomorrow because "why not?" But he's not on the radar for 2022 at this time.

Because they have other options in the minors that might be, and no way Jax is. If they want to rely on anyone at the start of next year, they need multiple starts this year. 

Put Jax in the bullpen, and leave him there. See what he can do with a different approach. He might have a shot there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because they have other options in the minors that might be, and no way Jax is. If they want to rely on anyone at the start of next year, they need multiple starts this year. 

Put Jax in the bullpen, and leave him there. See what he can do with a different approach. He might have a shot there. 

I suppose that after the Cruz trade, they may shift the pecking order. That makes sense.

[howeda7]

With Berrios gone, they should have at least $40 million to spend. More if they can move Donaldson/Sano. They almost have to sign at least 1-2 FA starters. Pineda coming back would make sense. Need at least one other one.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

With Berrios gone, they should have at least $40 million to spend. More if they can move Donaldson/Sano. They almost have to sign at least 1-2 FA starters. Pineda coming back would make sense. Need at least one other one.

Concur.

[howeda7]

Stroman

Maeda

Kluber

2 of: Belezovich, Duran, Ryan, Strotman, Ober, Dobnak

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

With Berrios gone, they should have at least $40 million to spend. More if they can move Donaldson/Sano. They almost have to sign at least 1-2 FA starters. Pineda coming back would make sense. Need at least one other one.

I would love to see it. Ervin Santana still holds the record for largest FA pitching contract we’ve handed out. 8 years ago. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't believe people think Jax can be a starter. I also don't think ober or dobnak are.... At least I'd hope they have three or four better options.....

If they have room to give him a look, fine.  However, we have Winder / Ryan / Strotman / maybe Sands / Canterino ready for a look at this level.

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

With Berrios gone, they should have at least $40 million to spend. More if they can move Donaldson/Sano. They almost have to sign at least 1-2 FA starters. Pineda coming back would make sense. Need at least one other one.

The have $45M net after contract expirations, pay increases, and arbitration raises.  This assumes a payroll equal to 2021. That could be stretched a little too.

[gunnarthor]

Honestly they should just give as many of the young rookie pitches a chance. They also need to get rid of the 5 inning starter bit but that's a different issue.

After the Olympics, I'd like to see Ryan up.

[KBJ1]

The opportunity window with this talent, this team has closed. They blew it by NOT signing a closer the last three years.

As far as next year? Forget it. Dobnak, Thorpe & Smeltzer have NO business being on a major league roster. God helpings if they are here.

Offering Buxton less of a contract than Donaldson is an insult. Make it incentive laden due to injury history & buy an insurance policy. Speaking of Donaldson, he is the piece to trade. Simply too expensive. If we had spent $20M a year on the bullpen, we would be in contention.

[wsnydes]

Now that the deadline has passed and we know the returns for Berrios (and others) and had a little bit of time to get to know or even watch the new acquisitions, has anyone's idea for the 2022 rotation changed?  

Mine hasn't all that much.  Having Pineda still here, I'd try to extend him.  If that isn't in the cards, either sign or trade for a veteran starter of his caliber or better to compliment Maeda.  I'm not opposed to that direction even if Pineda is extended.  Have an open competition for the remaining slots for the prospects.

[TopGunn#22]

There certainly WILL be FA SP's available.  The Twins need to shell out some serious money to sign someone to head the rotation.  Thor, Gausman, Rodon would all be tremendous options.  Would the White Sox just let us steal Rodon ?  Probably not, but we should be serious bidders.  After the Berrios trade there are two more solid prospect arms to consider with all the other In-House candidates.  But I agree with an earlier post about the need to have a "true" closer.  I've mentioned it often in my own postings.  I'm not sure if Rocco believes in having ONE guy (it's been clear Rogers has the best stuff, but Rocco won't commit to him).  So I'd prioritize a guy like Rosenthal or Yates (if the medicals check out) and make Rogers my 8th inning guy and occasional closer.