If Berrios is dealt, what does the 2022 rotation look like?

[wsnydes]

If Berrios is dealt, what does next season's rotation look like?  Maeda is probably the only real lock as I see it.  There are a few minor leaguers that will hopefully get a taste of the big leagues later this season.  Perhaps they acquire a few other options via trade.  Do they re-sign Pineda?  Does Dobnak fight for a spot?  Do they go out and sign a couple of 2nd-tier starters?  I figure it'll be some combination of all of these, but what do others think?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hard to say until we see what they get back. So much of the next 25 hours dictates what will happen in 2022. Do the Twins try to compete? Do they put themselves in a "if a few things go right, we'll compete" position? Or do they just throw up their hands and aim for 2023?

I could see them signing anywhere between zero and two decent/good starting pitchers depending where they fall on that spectrum.

[gunnarthor]

I think Windor as well as both the starters we got for Cruz will get some starts down the stretch here this year and, unless they are complete bombs, will get slotted in to start the season behind Maeda. Ober, Barnes, Jax and Dobnak will get looks as well but I think Barnes and Ober are the only two that could be back of the rotation starters. Balzovic and Duran seem to be a bit further away but both, barring injuries, will probably make the majors next year at some point.

They have enough payroll to get a Pineda type on the market but they won't be in on Gausman or Rodon, for example. A buy low candidate might be Dylan Bundy. Then there are guys like Jon Gray, who I have no idea what he'd get in free agency.

And lastly, if they do trade Berrios, it's likely they get one starter back who could fill a slot next year as well.

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hard to say until we see what they get back. So much of the next 25 hours dictates what will happen in 2022. Do the Twins try to compete? Do they put themselves in a "if a few things go right, we'll compete" position? Or do they just throw up their hands and aim for 2023?

I could see them signing anywhere between zero and two decent/good starting pitchers depending where they fall on that spectrum.

Right.  That's actually why I was interested to hear what people thought.  With so much unknown, there could be all sorts of thought processes.  Those same thought processes could change drastically 26 hours from now.  I thought that might be interesting.

If they weren't trying to really compete, part of me wouldn't mind seeing them load up the rotation with the top prospects coming out of ST and kind of see what happens.  Not haphazardly of course, but make it a legitimate competition and see who comes to the top.

[Rigby]

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

No idea....but here is what I'd do:

DFA Happ. Keep Maeda and Ober in the rotation.

Deal 3-4 prospects for John Means of the Orioles (more likely in the off season, really, but I'd like two veterans on the staff to teach the new guys.....). I think you can pull this off, and if you REALLY believe you will sign a legit 3-type in FA, you can give up the prospects.

Bring up Barnes and Winder (or one of the guys they got for Cruz, if either is left after dealing for Means). Promote the B-named pitcher to AAA. Rotate 3-4 of the guys from teh minors thru the majors the rest of the year, to see who should be counted on to start next year.

Sign Pineda or similar in the off season.

For the bullpen, jettison anyone not good, and call up as many guys from the minors as you can......

[MMMordabito]

Start with Maeda, Dobnak and Ober.  Then take the 10 best free agent starting pitchers and remove them from the list of possibilities, save Pineda, if he's top 10. Pick two from the FA pile that's left, Thorpe, Smeltzer and the rookies.  There's your rotation and injury fillers.

[Craig Arko]

[Alex Schieferdecker]

1. Maeda

2. (Balazovic/Ryan/Winder)

3. (Balazovic/Ryan/Winder)

4. Pineda

5. (Ober/Strotman/Dobnak/Remaining Option of 2/3)

[Tim]

It won't be pretty .. Probably a lot of the younger guys will fill it out, who that may be hinges on the next 24hrs.

I could see guys on a short term deal. Carlos Martinez seems like a fit, similar deal to Michael Pineda's a few years ago. Michael Pineda, Zach Davies, Michael Wacha, etc. rounding out open spots.

Noah Syndergaard is interesting. 

Regardless, it'll be a lot of the same that we've seen in the past while they continue (haha) to develop the minor league system.

[Squirrel]

52 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

For the bullpen, jettison anyone not good

This made me chuckle ... 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Squirrel said:

This made me chuckle ... 

the list was too long to type......basically, keep, um, Rogers and Duffey and Thielbar and Alcala (I'd consider sending him down at this point).

[Dodecahedron]

What will 2022 look like?  Easy:  dumpsterfire.jpg

[Squirrel]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

the list was too long to type......basically, keep, um, Rogers and Duffey and Thielbar and Alcala (I'd consider sending him down at this point).

I knew what you were getting at ... the list is longer who goes than stays ... but how you worded ... heh

[lukeduke1980]

Who will be available in Free agency?

[TwinsDr2021]

Maeda, and running every pitcher on the 40 man though the rotation.

I see no reason at signing any free agent pitcher that costs anything next year if they have trade Berrios, why even bother bringing in another Happ or Shoemaker, when all they end up doing to filling the 40 man with more pitchers.

Pitchers that will be on the 40 next year, Balazovic, Barnes, Colina, Dobnak, Duran, Jax, Ober, Smeltzer, Strotman, Thorpe, Winder, Sands, Ryan, with Vallimont and Enlow as possible pitchers added. Relief pitchers, Thielbar, Stashak, Farrell, Duffey, Burrows, Alcala, Rogers?

So it seems they have enough pitchers for next year, most are complete unknowns which means good luck in 2022.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Maeda, and running every pitcher on the 40 man though the rotation.

I see no reason at signing any free agent pitcher that costs anything next year if they have trade Berrios, why even bother bringing in another Happ or Shoemaker, when all they end up doing to filling the 40 man with more pitchers.

Pitchers that will be on the 40 next year, Balazovic, Barnes, Colina, Dobnak, Duran, Jax, Ober, Smeltzer, Strotman, Thorpe, Winder, Sands, Ryan, with Vallimont and Enlow as possible pitchers added. Relief pitchers, Thielbar, Stashak, Farrell, Duffey, Burrows, Alcala, Rogers?

So it seems they have enough pitchers for next year, most are complete unknowns which means good luck in 2022.

Why not just sign a guy as good as Berrios, and one other guy? I mean, there will be free agents that good......

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Who will be available in Free agency?

Potentially? Like 7 who are definitely better than Berrios and some of them without qualifying offers. Another dozen potential arms.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/

[bean5302]

27 minutes ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

1. Maeda

2. (Balazovic/Ryan/Winder)

3. (Balazovic/Ryan/Winder)

4. Pineda

5. (Ober/Strotman/Dobnak/Remaining Option of 2/3)

Can't fathom why the Twins would bring back Pineda in this scenario. If they're going to use basically all prospects, there is no reason to bring in Pineda.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Can't fathom why the Twins would bring back Pineda in this scenario. If they're going to use basically all prospects, there is no reason to bring in Pineda.

2 veterans to mentor the young guys.....I'd prefer three veterans.

[MMMordabito]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why not just sign a guy as good as Berrios, and one other guy? I mean, there will be free agents that good......

I agree, but it seems every year that it doesn't happen.  The ceiling is Nolasco/E Santana.  I think the Twins have received one really good year from Ervin and one really good year from Hughes by doing it that way.

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

2 veterans to mentor the young guys.....I'd prefer three veterans.

If they're intending on competing, two more would be ideal.  If they're looking to build towards 2023, one more should do it.  Get the prospects innings.

 

[Vanimal46]

Maeda would be the only lock right now. I like Big Mike and hope he returns to fill one of the slots. The Twins appear to like him a lot too. 

We would need to find someone capable of matching or beating Berrios’ 3 WAR benchmark. I doubt we pony up the dough in free agency, so trade will be the route. I like @Mike Sixel’s idea of going for John Means. If the loaded Padres don’t make it to the WS, maybe they do a mini re-tool and trade one of Clevenger, Darvish, Musgrove, or Snell. 

We will certainly sign a couple of fliers to fill the back end of the rotation. Hopefully with better results than Shoemaker. 

Dobnak’s had a horrible year obviously. But we can’t ignore that he was extended and will be apart of future plans.

I would prefer heading into 2022 with Ober/Sands/Jax/Balazovic/Winder as the first options out of AAA… Not handed an MLB spot immediately. 

Smeltzer and Thorpe are most likely DFAs over the winter, or bullpen arms. 

So this is what I got after writing first, and thinking later:

Maeda - Trade - Big Mike - Dobnak - flier FA signing 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why not just sign a guy as good as Berrios, and one other guy? I mean, there will be free agents that good......

which free agent is as good as Berrios and won't expect a contract of more than one year at a high salary?

My thoughts are every FA signed means one of the players on the list I provided is gone for probably nothing? Seems like they are doing the same as they did with the 7 left handed corner outfielders they had.

First I wouldn't trade Berrios, I would go out and try to sign one of these Greinke/Verlander,/Scherzer or maybe Morton on a 1 or two year contract. Then I would try to package a couple of the 21 young pitchers above to a better or closer young pitcher (maybe Ober/Duran/Thorpe), then see how much DeSclafani's market is or a Joe Ross type.

Then the rotation looks like

Berrios

Greinke/Verlander/Scherzer/Morton

Ross

Then the last two spots would be

Winder for 4 innings, Smeltzer for 3

Ryan for 3, Barnes for 3, Strotman for 3.

take all the rookies and move them all around, but none of this start but be on a low pitch count, low innings and fingers crossed on how far they go and blow the pen up when they only go three, It shouldn't take that long figure out who the real pitchers are, who ends up in the pen, and we needs to go back to the minors.

 

[bean5302]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

2 veterans to mentor the young guys.....I'd prefer three veterans.

Then bring back Shoemaker and Happ. I just don't see the value in signing a $10MM veteran pitcher if you're not competing.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Then bring back Shoemaker and Happ. I just don't see the value in signing a $10MM veteran pitcher if you're not competing.

How about a $15MM one to a multi-year deal, so he's here and ready to help in 2023, if you don't believe in 2022? You don't have to wait until THE YEAR to sign someone......

I think this offense can compete. They need a SS and a heathy Buxton. 

Then they need the bullpen not to be awful......

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Then bring back Shoemaker and Happ. I just don't see the value in signing a $10MM veteran pitcher if you're not competing.

Any decent player on an expiring contract can be flipped for something at the deadline.

Happ and Shoemaker, not so much.

[4twinsJA]

Think it is time to clear some underperforming pitchers off the 40 man roster- Thorpe, Smeltzer, among others. Twins had some promising prospects that will need to be on 40 man next year. Twins don't need to waste 40 man spot or playing time on Bailey, Shoemaker FA types next year.

[Cap'n Piranha]

SP1--Gausman, on a 5/$125M (6/$150M with that sixth year being an option, $10M buyout if needed to seal the deal)

SP2--Maeda

SP3--Big Mike or the equivalent on a 2/$30M (limit, if they can go lower but still get the quality, good)

SP4&5--any combo of Dobnak, Ober, Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Ryan, Strotman and whomever you get for Berrios.  You can pick and choose eho's ready and performing.  You'll be investing about $50M in the rotation, so if you want to add a shortstop or address the pen through FA, they'll need to figure out a way to get some money back from Donaldson/Sano, but with the good production from Donaldson, and the improving production from Sano, shedding $15M of the combined $30M they're owed is doable.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

How about a $15MM one to a multi-year deal, so he's here and ready to help in 2023, if you don't believe in 2022? You don't have to wait until THE YEAR to sign someone......

I think this offense can compete. They need a SS and a heathy Buxton. 

Then they need the bullpen not to be awful......

I was just talking about the desire for veteran leadership. If a veteran is all you need, there's no need to pay $10MM to get him. The Twins would need to go for $20MM+ on a longer contract to get somebody they should feel comfortable in having on the roster for 4+ years. Ervin Santana got $15MM/year from the Twins 8 years ago and, as expected, he tailed off.