Five Takeaways for the 2021 Twins

[Major League Ready]

No doubt the free agents were not good but a lot of people here speak as if the FO failed to bring in the right guys.  Who were the right guys?

 

Were we going to get Wainwright away from STL?

James Paxton pitched 1 inning

Garret Richards’s ERA is 5.15

Drew Smyly has been decent with a 4.3 ERA but he certainly would not have made a difference

Corey Kluber pitched 50 innings and is now on the 60 day IL

Charlie Morton has been good but his geographic preference is well known so that was not going to happen.

Mike Minor has an ERA of 5.32

Jake Odorizzi has been decent with an ERA of 4.3 but how much difference would he have made.

The guy I wanted (Taijuan Walker) has been great but I got no support here when I floated him as a good option.

We could have traded for Blake Snell like so many here insisted was a no brainer.  We could have given up a bunch of prospects for a near replacement level player.  We could have traded for Darvish.  He was great the first couple months but he has given up 16 runs in his last 20 innings.  We would still be talking about a horrible season even with Darvish so there is a lot more to this failure than our free agents SPs, one of which was a $2M depth play.   

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Bit revisionist history, yes? Baddoo was coming off a significant injury and the missing pandemic minor league year and in his last organized play year hadn't actually done anything of note (slash line of .214/.290/.393) and hadn't taken a single AB above A-ball. The decision was never "protect Cave or Baddoo"; Cave was someone who had 2 years of success at the MLB level for the Twins (and a poor pandemic year) and was well-suited to be a 4th OF...and broke his back this season. How can you let Baddoo go? Because you're betting that no team is going to be willing to keep a completely unproven player on the roster for a full season when he missed 1 1/2 seasons of development. It's the same kind of bet that they made on Miranda, and it went well. But the choice at the time was keep Baddoo or keep one of Celestino/Rortvedt, both of whom were more likely bets to be taken in the Rule 5. (backup catchers who can field and call a game can be stashed on a roster even if they can't hit, and proven defenders in CF are easier to hang onto as well because both can still add value even if they're not ready to hit at MLB)

I'm happy with Gordon's development so far and pleased to see him get the  chance with the Twins. He's never going to hit for power, but he's got a good feel for the strike zone and if he can get on base at a good clip, give speed and positional flexibility off the bench, then he'll be a nice utility option.

This is spot on. and I heart it a second time here.

 

[Brandon]

Also I bet Cave will hit better and even around where he hit in the past now that his injury is behind him.  or in "back" of him....

 

[In My La Z boy]

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

This is spot on. and I heart it a second time here.

 

Tigers took a shot at a formerly highly discussed 5-tool guy. Worst that happens is they pay a small charge and give him back. We didn't screw up here. Sucks. 

[ashbury]

Five Takeaways for the 2021 Twins:

• Take away Matt Shoemaker
• Take away J.A. Happ
• Take away Alex Colomé
• Take away Hansel Robles
• Take away Wes Johnson

 

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, JT Chargois, Ben Rortvedt, Adalberto Mejia, and Nick Burdi make a better system than Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, Sabato, Canterino, Ryan, Cavaco, Urbina, Enlow, and Rooker? (That's the MLB.com ranks that I don't necessarily agree with) Agree to disagree on the idea that the system is even comparable to now. The depth in the system now far surpasses that from 2016, in my opinion.

I assume you're talking Sano, Buxton, Berrios when you say "incredible nucleus of top 100 talents." If you're talking total team talent I guess I'll agree to disagree there, too. Twins Win% from 2011 to now by season: .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364 (2016), .525, .481, .623, .600, .417. Hard to argue there was much on the MLB or in the minor leagues. They'd had 1 season over .500 in the 6 seasons before Falvey took over. They've had 3 in his 5 years. He didn't start with nothing, but let's not act like he was handed a team with any real previous success or the Dodgers' budget. 

Has he been perfect? No. Has he been great? No. Has he improved the team? There's no way you can argue he hasn't. This year has been awful. I get it. But, in my opinion, that shouldn't wipe out everything that happened before it. He failed this offseason. It's as simple as that. He misjudged the FA pitching he brought in. No debate against it. But outside of that he's been pretty darn good.

Eh. I think we just agree to disagree. The farm system when he took over had 4 top 100 prospects in it, now we have two according to BA midseason top 100. The system had Kiriloff, Garver, Baddoo, Arraez, Chargois, and Wade who all look like solid MLers as well as a number of UI/AAAA types plus a few more who are still around. There is no Buxton/Berrios in that group but it's a solid group. Looking at our current list, we still don't have any Buxton/Berrios types* but a few that could certainly turn out to be solid MLers. But several of the players you listed I'm already souring on - Sabato is overwhelmed at low A, Enlow might not be protected on the 40 man this offseason. I like Balzovic (who Falvey inherited) and I like Windor and the pitchers we got in the Cruz trade.

But I don't think the farm system has improved that much in five years despite being given more payroll than previous teams. The Larnich/Jeffers draft was great and COVID mucked a lot of things up so it's hard to grade the 2020 draft of the development of recently drafted players. But the nucleus that Falvey got was going to win some games, no matter who was the GM. I don't think he did enough to keep that window open and I don't think he's done a good job creating a pitching pipeline.

* I loved the Petty pick, but too early to put him in the Berrios category.

[bean5302]

I remember when Sano was expected to be a great third baseman with an elite bat. Then maybe just a solid 3rd baseman with a very good bat. Then, well, at least his athleticism and reach will make him a great 1st baseman and he'll still have a good bat. Well, maybe he's passable at 1st base, and if he's just solidly above average at the plate. I mean... how bad can a first baseman really be, and he had a great year a couple years ago! Ah ****... well, we can put him at DH and his bat is still league average after a nice 2 week hot streak. That's what we all expected, after all, and maybe the $9.25MM is an ever so slight overpay for a guy who has a negative fWAR, but negative WAR values never hurt a team!

The only way Miguel Sano should be on the Twins' roster in 2022 is if they don't expect to compete.

[ashbury]

OK, my above post was good-natured trolling based on the subject line. To address some actual points in the article:

Miguel Sano is death by a thousand cuts. Yes, his good moments are worth celebrating, but over and over the opportunities that are cost by his striking out and hitting easy outs outweigh the good, and moreover it seems like his big hits too often come when the pressure is lowest. Win Probability Added is a nice toy that tries to keep separate ledgers for the good outcomes at bat and the bad outcomes, which may or may not have all the kinks worked out (shaddap, Chief), but for Sano in 2021 it matches my eye test: his Positive WPA is fourth best on the team, while his Negative WPA leads the team, and the net is a negative for his batting contributions. Similar story for 2020. That's not a seasonal consistency to be desired.  My opinion is that opposing pitchers have some say in the matter, and Miguel isn't able to adapt to the differing pitch selections he's offered, situationally. Since he can't contribute much with the glove or running the bases, that's bad.

Nick Gordon is proving far better than my low expectations based on a couple of games I watched at AAA. Good for him, and good for the Twins, and don't hire me as scout.

Concur on the other points - Mitch Garver fills the bill as a bat-first catcher, the pitching needs overhauling (maybe I mentioned that already), and our corner bat prospects are looking like they'll make it.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Eh. I think we just agree to disagree. The farm system when he took over had 4 top 100 prospects in it, now we have two according to BA midseason top 100. The system had Kiriloff, Garver, Baddoo, Arraez, Chargois, and Wade who all look like solid MLers as well as a number of UI/AAAA types plus a few more who are still around. There is no Buxton/Berrios in that group but it's a solid group. Looking at our current list, we still don't have any Buxton/Berrios types* but a few that could certainly turn out to be solid MLers. But several of the players you listed I'm already souring on - Sabato is overwhelmed at low A, Enlow might not be protected on the 40 man this offseason. I like Balzovic (who Falvey inherited) and I like Windor and the pitchers we got in the Cruz trade.

But I don't think the farm system has improved that much in five years despite being given more payroll than previous teams. The Larnich/Jeffers draft was great and COVID mucked a lot of things up so it's hard to grade the 2020 draft of the development of recently drafted players. But the nucleus that Falvey got was going to win some games, no matter who was the GM. I don't think he did enough to keep that window open and I don't think he's done a good job creating a pitching pipeline.

* I loved the Petty pick, but too early to put him in the Berrios category.

Fair enough. I don't think he's done some out of this world job, but I don't think the MLB team would've been top 10 in ERA each of the last 2 seasons with Ryan and Co still running the show. I'm higher on the arms in the system than you, but we'll start getting our answers on them the next 2 months and next season. But I certainly don't think you're off in crazy town with your assessment.

[Major League Ready]

11 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Eh. I think we just agree to disagree. The farm system when he took over had 4 top 100 prospects in it, now we have two according to BA midseason top 100. The system had Kiriloff, Garver, Baddoo, Arraez, Chargois, and Wade who all look like solid MLers as well as a number of UI/AAAA types plus a few more who are still around. There is no Buxton/Berrios in that group but it's a solid group. Looking at our current list, we still don't have any Buxton/Berrios types* but a few that could certainly turn out to be solid MLers. But several of the players you listed I'm already souring on - Sabato is overwhelmed at low A, Enlow might not be protected on the 40 man this offseason. I like Balzovic (who Falvey inherited) and I like Windor and the pitchers we got in the Cruz trade.

But I don't think the farm system has improved that much in five years despite being given more payroll than previous teams. The Larnich/Jeffers draft was great and COVID mucked a lot of things up so it's hard to grade the 2020 draft of the development of recently drafted players. But the nucleus that Falvey got was going to win some games, no matter who was the GM. I don't think he did enough to keep that window open and I don't think he's done a good job creating a pitching pipeline.

* I loved the Petty pick, but too early to put him in the Berrios category.

I thought we were talking about pitching.  Your argument seems to be they were ranked high but why do we care how they were ranked when we now know how they have performed?   What did that system produce for pitching?   We can evaluate based on results and that group produced virtually nothing in terms of pitching.  We don't know how this group will rate 5 years from now when we can evaluate based on results.  I would be willing to bet we get a whole lot more pitching out of the current system plus whoever they get for Berrios/Pineda assuming they are dealt.

[Rosterman]

The toughest job is 40-man roster construction. Who to protect, who to jettison, who to forget, who to hide. Baddoo was hidden, waaaay back in the minors due to injuries. Taking him was taking a big chance. He was behind Celestino and Larnach and Kirilloff and Rooker....so he was waaaaaay out of the picture.

 

You keep a Cave (or a LaMonte Wade) as off-season 40-man adds have to stay on the roster unless traded until spring training is way underway. So you need a player or three to jettison if you sign a free agent.

 

Miranda was missed? Well, the Twins don't see fit to add and bring up the guy, so it was doubtful that any other team would also make that choice.

 

The Twins, going into 2021, needed to sign a top of the rotation starter on the level or Berrios.2, Someone a year or two older that is deserving of a longterm multi tens of millions contract. They didn't. They went to the slush pile of Shoemaker, Happ and Pineda, with the hopes that Ballazovic and Duran would need innings and these guys could be happily flipped at the trading deadline for riches.

 

The Twins needed a bonafide closer. Not a closer by committee,. No a diamond in the rough. Not someone who Wes Johnson could magically transform. They didn't. Sure, they lost Clippard and Romo and Wisler and whatever. They also lost May, who might've been closer material and really didn't go for an outrageous contract. But instead they have gone to the trash-heap. Look at all the names waiting in the wings: Shepherd, Leyer, Hamilton, Albers, Nunn, Barraclough, Gilmartin, Lau, Garcia, Vincent, Harvey, Williams not to mention time and money spent on Coulombe, Law, Farrell, Anderson, Minaya, Waddell...and don't get me talking Colome and Robles. Let's put all that cha-ting into one contract and get someone actually good. 

 

And on offense, it all revolves around Sano, where and how much he plays, when he wants to play. At some point, you make it a non-issue and someone else's problem. Plus, yes, you could've kept Wade (or Baddoo) and rode without Cave. The Twins showed there is plenty of outfielders of that status to be had putting Garlick, Refsnyder and almost Broxton into the mix. Okay, Baddoo wasn't on the cusp (like Lrnach and Kirilloff) so he was blocked, blocked, blocked folks. Agree with that. He was 10 spots away from the Twins in the minds of the front office, depending on what he would do in a full-season of play in AA ball, soemthing Celestino should be doing rather than running around in the majors.

 

Is it hard to sign starting pitchers? Then the Twins needed to be the best friend Jose Berrios ever had and figure out a way to keep him. DO you like what you see rather than spin blindfolded and buy in the open market? Then you keep your Trevor May. You resign Byron Buxton because he is Mr. Twin right now. You show other players that the Twins can be your lifetime in the majors leagues, not just a losing steppingstone to bigger markets and contracts elsewhere where you are forgotten (Johan, are you listening...what did New York do for you - you would've been KING of Minnesota baseball).

 

Us fans have to realize that running a team IS HARDER than sitting in our armchair and dreaming up trades that get rid of mediocre players for great ones, advancing prospects before they are ready, shuffling names on and off a roster not realizing that they do have to go somewhere.

 

Right now, let's recognize the NEWE core the Twins have to build around, what that core will cost tomorrow and five years into the future, and what needs to be done to supplement it. Supposedly money isn't an issue. If the fan base returns, totally in 2022 then the Twins should be looking at $150m+ for payroll. There is absolutely no reason they can't be competitive in the top free agent market.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I remember when Sano was expected to be a great third baseman with an elite bat. Then maybe just a solid 3rd baseman with a very good bat. Then, well, at least his athleticism and reach will make him a great 1st baseman and he'll still have a good bat. Well, maybe he's passable at 1st base, and if he's just solidly above average at the plate. I mean... how bad can a first baseman really be, and he had a great year a couple years ago! Ah ****... well, we can put him at DH and his bat is still league average after a nice 2 week hot streak. That's what we all expected, after all, and maybe the $9.25MM is an ever so slight overpay for a guy who has a negative fWAR, but negative WAR values never hurt a team!

The only way Miguel Sano should be on the Twins' roster in 2022 is if they don't expect to compete.

LOL, I remember well when all the talk to put the Twins back in the play-offs were the wunder kindt of Buxton, Hicks and Sano.

It seems talk of wunder kindt never stops, it just changes names.

We need veterans for at least two full years, so years like 2019 last more than one year, then the dreamers will know if their wunder kindt panned out.

[Jack Dupp]

The bubble has quickly burst for Rocco and this coaching staff. Not one pitcher has shown marked improvement under the tutelage of Wes Johnson, and nearly every hitter has regressed to the point of embarrassment under Rudy Hernandez and Edgar Varella. Watkins and Diaz are below average. Not sure this group is equipped for the job…too much bubble gum and not enough chewing tobacco in the dugout.

[bean5302]

I'm actually way more concerned about our middle infield defense. I feel like somebody brought up Cavaco's struggles a couple months ago and I responded with players in A ball often have defensive stumbles. Then I went and looked at Cavaco again the other day and realized maybe it was only Twins prospects who stumble so badly in the minors. We have a very long history of horrible shortstop fielding that goes all the way back to Trevor Plouffe. Polanco, Gordon and Cavaco appear to have have rocks in their gloves with Lewis being mediocre and even Palacios' error rate isn't good despite all his experience.

I'm starting to wonder if Gordon's defensive woes are a function of poor coaching. That kind of stuff will kill a team for years.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

I'm actually way more concerned about our middle infield defense. I feel like somebody brought up Cavaco's struggles a couple months ago and I responded with players in A ball often have defensive stumbles. Then I went and looked at Cavaco again the other day and realized maybe it was only Twins prospects who stumble so badly in the minors. We have a very long history of horrible shortstop fielding that goes all the way back to Trevor Plouffe. Polanco, Gordon and Cavaco appear to have have rocks in their gloves with Lewis being mediocre and even Palacios' error rate isn't good despite all his experience.

I'm starting to wonder if Gordon's defensive woes are a function of poor coaching. That kind of stuff will kill a team for years.

Plus they keep drafting bat first OFers......No idea how they expect to win anything meaningful that way. No idea.

[LastOnePicked]

Sadly, one of the biggest takeaways from this year for me is that though the team seems to draft quite well, they develop and evaluate/promote talent extremely poorly - and they have since the Ryan years. And that means the team pays for drafting and time in the minors, only to lose that talent. Essentially, they invest in their major league opponents.

For all of the talk about our two up-and-coming OFs, Wade and Baddoo are clearly better players at this point - and they were lost for nothing. True, not many fans could have predicted that, but that's not our job. It's the FO job to make these calls. And they've been wrong far more often than they've been right this year. If that continues, this team has no hope to contend.

[Linus]

When will the statute of limitations run out on blaming Terry Ryan?  

[darwin22]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group.  That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good).

The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team.  Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2.  Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot.  This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. 

Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now. 

 

LA Vikes fan:  Absolutely agree with your comments on all fronts.  A few things to add centered on your statement---"FO overestimated the core talent in place and just needed to fill some holes in the complimentary group"

1.  For whatever reason Falvey & Levine allowed Trevor May (FA deal with Mets) and Tyler Clippard to leave thinking that others would progress.  Obviously, that has not happened.  I really don't understand the "love affair" Falvey has with Cody Stashak.  Stashak had a decent 2020 campaign but not, imo, the type of season that merited be moved into such a key set up role.   As everyone knows now, Stashak was putrid early this season-----demoted to AAA and now on long term IL.

2.  Tyler Duffey:  Not sure I can place all the blame on Falvey on this one as I was frequently calling last year for Duffey to get more 8th and 9th inning duties instead of Sergio Romo.  Duffey has not taken the "next step" that many expected.  He hasn't been terrible, but sure hasn't been the dependable and at times dominant RP that I expected he would be.

3.  Jorge Alcala:  Another arm that was expected to improve but has stalled with far too many poor outings whether they come mid game or in late inning situations.  Really have to wonder what role, if any he has moving forward.

4-5. Sano and Kepler:  Not much more to add from what you stated, but both of these guys have significantly regressed from what they did in 2019.  My thought is Falvey and others in the FO absolutely refused to put ANY stock in their poor performances in 2020.  It doesn't take a great baseball mind to see that both Sano and Kepler STRUGGLE to make consistent contact especially when making contact by making a productive out can produce a run.  I believe Falvey and others in the front office absolutely believed both would rebound to their 2019 power numbers.

6.  Jake Cave:  The perfect example of the mentality of Falvey....Cave gives us good defense (he does). Cave will improve his run and power production getting regular ABs if Buxton gets injured (big miscalculation there).  Cave will prove he can hit LH pitching (he can't).   

7.  Alex Colome:  At the time of the signing, I was thinking this could work out as I looked at his solid numbers over the last 2 years--especially dominant against Twins.  Now, its quite apparent THERE WAS A MAJOR REASON WHY NO TEAM OFFERED him a FA contract.  Especially true when Colome sat on the FA market, I think into late January/ early February.

and finally....

#8 Randy Dobnak:  Call me a homer, but I think Dobnak's lost season can be absolutely blamed on Baldelli and Falvey.  If memory serves, Dobnak had a great ST, but due to the late FA "reach and grab" of Shoemaker to be SP#5, Dobnak had no defined role to start the season.  Honestly, I think the decision to insert Shoemaker into the rotation and kick Dobnak into an undetermined relief role showed a complete lack of faith in Dobnak.  I would argue it was borderline disrespectful to Dobnak as other than Maeda in 2020, he was our best and most consistent SP.  No way to predict what will play out with him moving forward, but, imo, he's a guy that can be a valuable member of our pitching staff next season.  Lets just give him a DEFINED ROLE and commit to it.  If he fails, so be it.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

LA Vikes fan:  Absolutely agree with your comments on all fronts.  A few things to add centered on your statement---"FO overestimated the core talent in place and just needed to fill some holes in the complimentary group"

1.  For whatever reason Falvey & Levine allowed Trevor May (FA deal with Mets) and Tyler Clippard to leave thinking that others would progress.  Obviously, that has not happened.  I really don't understand the "love affair" Falvey has with Cody Stashak.  Stashak had a decent 2020 campaign but not, imo, the type of season that merited be moved into such a key set up role.   As everyone knows now, Stashak was putrid early this season-----demoted to AAA and now on long term IL.

2.  Tyler Duffey:  Not sure I can place all the blame on Falvey on this one as I was frequently calling last year for Duffey to get more 8th and 9th inning duties instead of Sergio Romo.  Duffey has not taken the "next step" that many expected.  He hasn't been terrible, but sure hasn't been the dependable and at times dominant RP that I expected he would be.

3.  Jorge Alcala:  Another arm that was expected to improve but has stalled with far too many poor outings whether they come mid game or in late inning situations.  Really have to wonder what role, if any he has moving forward.

4-5. Sano and Kepler:  Not much more to add from what you stated, but both of these guys have significantly regressed from what they did in 2019.  My thought is Falvey and others in the FO absolutely refused to put ANY stock in their poor performances in 2020.  It doesn't take a great baseball mind to see that both Sano and Kepler STRUGGLE to make consistent contact especially when making contact by making a productive out can produce a run.  I believe Falvey and others in the front office absolutely believed both would rebound to their 2019 power numbers.

6.  Jake Cave:  The perfect example of the mentality of Falvey....Cave gives us good defense (he does). Cave will improve his run and power production getting regular ABs if Buxton gets injured (big miscalculation there).  Cave will prove he can hit LH pitching (he can't).   

7.  Alex Colome:  At the time of the signing, I was thinking this could work out as I looked at his solid numbers over the last 2 years--especially dominant against Twins.  Now, its quite apparent THERE WAS A MAJOR REASON WHY NO TEAM OFFERED him a FA contract.  Especially true when Colome sat on the FA market, I think into late January/ early February.

and finally....

#8 Randy Dobnak:  Call me a homer, but I think Dobnak's lost season can be absolutely blamed on Baldelli and Falvey.  If memory serves, Dobnak had a great ST, but due to the late FA "reach and grab" of Shoemaker to be SP#5, Dobnak had no defined role to start the season.  Honestly, I think the decision to insert Shoemaker into the rotation and kick Dobnak into an undetermined relief role showed a complete lack of faith in Dobnak.  I would argue it was borderline disrespectful to Dobnak as other than Maeda in 2020, he was our best and most consistent SP.  No way to predict what will play out with him moving forward, but, imo, he's a guy that can be a valuable member of our pitching staff next season.  Lets just give him a DEFINED ROLE and commit to it.  If he fails, so be it.

Kepler is outhitting the average MLB player this year. Is he great? No. But he's not the issue everyone seems to think.

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Kepler is outhitting the average MLB player this year. Is he great? No. But he's not the issue everyone seems to think.

Kepler was also playing a little beat up for a while because of other injuries. A lot of Kepler's value in 2019 came from him playing so much center field. I'd expect Kepler to play a bit better down the stretch and post a 2.0 WAR season or so. I think everybody was hoping Kepler was going to be a perennial All Star, but the Twins certainly aren't paying him for that level of production. It would have been a Christian Yelich style steal of a contract had Kepler taken a major step forward.

[gunnarthor]

I don't have a problem with Kepler but he's not a vital cog, he's 28, and he plays a position that the Twins have spent a lot of draft capital on so he should be replaceable. Don't give him away but if we can get more pitching, move him.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't have a problem with Kepler but he's not a vital cog, he's 28, and he plays a position that the Twins have spent a lot of draft capital on so he should be replaceable. Don't give him away but if we can get more pitching, move him.

Who? Who can play d and hit? Who can backup center in a season that isn't lost? No one in this system. Not next year.

[Danchat]

I don't mean to be such a critic, but lately Gordon hasn't been hitting that well, and he's dropped to .259/.308 (.649 OPS). I would like to see him get consistent ABs instead of riding the bench, whether that be with the Twins or at AAA. And he should be given as many reps to play outfield (mainly CF) as possible, as I think he provides the most value as a bench bat who can fill in at 2B and anywhere in the OF. I just don't know if his bat is going to keep him above being a replacement level player.

My curiosity is piqued by Garver and Polanco - both seem to be back to their 2019 selves. Sure, they're on hot streaks and will probably cool off, but a healthy Polanco is a dramatically better player than his unhealthy counterpart (BBref has him at 2.9 WAR!). His power is back, and the deadened ball has not affected him much, it seems.

Garver has had an odd career. 2017 at AAA - shreds it with a .928 OPS, but that wasn't realistic for what he could really do. 2019 comes around, hits .995 OPS. But then in 2020 we convince ourselves that was just an outlier. Now 2021 - .926 OPS. I guess he's just an odd year hitter?

Also, the timing on calling Larnach a success is poor. I have confidence he will make adjustments, but he's taking his rookie lumps right now. Hopefully he can get out of the funk and ensure he will be starting in LF in 2022.

[gunnarthor]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who? Who can play d and hit? Who can backup center in a season that isn't lost? No one in this system. Not next year.

But so what? If Buxton's out, we're cooked. I don't want to give Kepler away but we should consider moving him for pitching and not worrying about the backup CF position.

As for corner OFers, we have Larnich, Kiriloff, Arraez (maybe Rooker) as legit options with Gordon, Celestino, Cave, and a few cheap FA possibilities as back-ups. The defense won't be great but if Buxton's healthy, I don't think it's that big a problem.

[Whitey333]

So because those free agent pitchers struggled you think the Twins should sit back and do nothing?  Come on now.  Also agree with player assessments except Sano.  It amazes me how you can make a totally inept guy like Sano look like a good major league player.  Do you ever watch him play?

[sjunisu]

16 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I thought we were talking about pitching.  Your argument seems to be they were ranked high but why do we care how they were ranked when we now know how they have performed?   What did that system produce for pitching?   We can evaluate based on results and that group produced virtually nothing in terms of pitching.  We don't know how this group will rate 5 years from now when we can evaluate based on results.  I would be willing to bet we get a whole lot more pitching out of the current system plus whoever they get for Berrios/Pineda assuming they are dealt.

So you are saying Falvine need 10 years (the 5 they already have, plus another 5 yrs from now) to be judged on how well they are handling the pitching pipeline and staff?  I simply do not agree with that length of time - judgement starts now and thru next yr which gives them 6; plenty of time.

[Karbo]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, JT Chargois, Ben Rortvedt, Adalberto Mejia, and Nick Burdi make a better system than Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, Sabato, Canterino, Ryan, Cavaco, Urbina, Enlow, and Rooker? (That's the MLB.com ranks that I don't necessarily agree with) Agree to disagree on the idea that the system is even comparable to now. The depth in the system now far surpasses that from 2016, in my opinion.

I assume you're talking Sano, Buxton, Berrios when you say "incredible nucleus of top 100 talents." If you're talking total team talent I guess I'll agree to disagree there, too. Twins Win% from 2011 to now by season: .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364 (2016), .525, .481, .623, .600, .417. Hard to argue there was much on the MLB or in the minor leagues. They'd had 1 season over .500 in the 6 seasons before Falvey took over. They've had 3 in his 5 years. He didn't start with nothing, but let's not act like he was handed a team with any real previous success or the Dodgers' budget. 

Has he been perfect? No. Has he been great? No. Has he improved the team? There's no way you can argue he hasn't. This year has been awful. I get it. But, in my opinion, that shouldn't wipe out everything that happened before it. He failed this offseason. It's as simple as that. He misjudged the FA pitching he brought in. No debate against it. But outside of that he's been pretty darn good.

I agree the FO has done a good job in the past. I look back at this season so far and actually think that the major problem is the bullpen, an area which should be an area relatively cheap to repair for next season. I dont know the exact numbers,(I'm sure someone does) but from watching most of the games it seems like we have a lead and we lose it late more than I've seen in several years.

If they don't trade Berrios, re-sign Pineda, with Maeda that would be 3 starters then they could fill in the other 2 from minor prospects, and concentrate on signing 1 or 2 quality relievers and filling in the rest with average bullpen arms. The cost? Not as much as buying a 1 or 2 front line starters just to see their lead get blown anyway. 

If the season starts out well and things look good then try to sign Berrios to an extension(provided he isn't traded today).

[RpR]

Depending on how the day ends, right now 2021 looks like the Twins management is fully committed to returning to the glory years of the 1970s, when mediocre plays came and went.?

They can change their name to the Minnesota Rookies , 100 losses here we come.