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To say the 2021 Major League Baseball season has not gone as planned for the Minnesota Twins would be an understatement. It’s been a catastrophic failure of expectations, but there are things to be learned in this smoldering mess.

We still have a ways to go, and while there is no August waiver trade period in 2021, Rocco Baldelli’s roster should continue to get a shake-up over the next few weeks. Cycling in different hitters and pitchers when attempting to find future opportunities, this club can also look back on what has been and begin making assessments for 2022 and beyond.

While not all the biggest storylines, here are five key takeaways from what we’ve seen to this point:

Miguel Sano is inconsistently consistent
Through 21 games to start the year, Sano owned a .119/.280/.209 slash line. Over his next 38 games from May 15 through June 30, he held a .233/.280/.549 slash line. Then, in July, he’s owned a .246/.325/.478 slash line across 20 games. He’s got a .737 OPS in 79 games this year and has paired that with 17 homers and a .291 OBP.

If you’re looking for Miguel Sano to be the mega-prospect he once was considered, that’s probably on you at this point. The slash line still leaves plenty to be desired, but he’s got a 103 OPS+ and has not wavered on a solid sense of plate discipline. Timing continues to elude him for frustrating stretches, but he’s also capable of going on an absolute power tear.

Should the Twins find themselves back in a position of strength throughout their lineup, a bat like that in the bottom half is hardly something to scoff at. He’s owed $9.25 million in 2022, and that’s an overpay but not to the extent of being ultimately damaging and acting as a primary designated hitter; that may be the role he’s always been destined for anyways.

Nick Gordon has utility
I was convinced that opportunity had passed the Twins former first-round pick by for quite a while. I knew he could play at the big-league level but wasn’t sure it would happen in a Minnesota uniform. Now I’m more convinced that it needs to continue.

He’s still the same player he’s been throughout the minors. A soft-hitting speedster that will occasionally run into one, this is a singles hitter that has the instincts to swipe bases. Add in the utility he’s provided by learning centerfield on the fly, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be on the Opening Day roster in 2022.

Gordon may find a bit more success in year two when it comes to batting average; he’s made a career out of taking steps forward after acclimating to a level. Even if he doesn’t, though, speed on the bench is something Minnesota hasn’t had, and the combination of being a lighter version of Chris Taylor is a good thing for any roster to have.

Mitch Garver can still mash
To say that 2020 was disastrous for Mitch Garver would be putting it lightly. The Twins Silver Slugger winning catcher posted a terrible .511 OPS and hit just two homers in 23 games. Things started slow for him in 2021, with a .517 OPS being toted through 17 games.

In his last 29 games since April 28, with a severe injury mixed in there, Garver has slashed .299/.449/.740 with nine homers and a 20/19 K/BB. The life-altering foul tip he took was incredibly scary, but as rehab progressed and healing took place, he’s been back behind the dish and picked up where he left off. Even after being plunked by a pitch on his hand recently, it’s fair to dream of the production that will soon return.

Garver is a late-blooming prospect, so he’s going to age relatively quickly, but this is the anchor of a tandem behind the dish that Twins fans were hoping for.

The pitching staff needs an overhaul
Minnesota owns the fourth-worst pitching staff in baseball by fWAR in 2021. The starters rank 24th, and the relievers are 25th. The entire unit has been a complete abomination. With the uncertain status of Jose Berrios’ future and veterans like J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda being done this offseason, the rotation will be in flux.

Taylor Rogers sapped his trade value with a finger injury just days ago, but whether he was dealt or not, the rest of the bullpen remains a complete question mark. None of the signings made by the front office have worked out, and while they were short-term pacts, a re-do is less exciting when considering just how many times they missed over the winter.

Derek Falvey has long been lauded for his ability to develop and identify pitching. Minnesota has a farm system rich with names attached to arms, but none have begun to bear fruit, and plenty are currently injured. For this organization to thrive at the highest level, it’s going to need to start on the mound once again, and they’re going to be doing so from next to nothing for 2022.

Corner rookies are real
In a season where winning takes a back seat, the best way to prevent it from becoming lost is by watching your youth thrive. Alex Kirilloff is done for the year after having wrist surgery, but it’s pretty realistic to call his rookie campaign a success. The top prospect came up early and handled his own. He’s not an ideal fit in the outfield, but he’ll play at first base, and the bat is every bit as advertised.

Trevor Larnach joined Kirilloff sooner than expected, but it’s hard to pick apart much of what he’s done this season. Even while slumping of late, the 24-year-old owns a .322 OBP and has shown plenty of power potential. He’ll run into more baseballs as his career progresses, and the discipline in the box has been a sight to behold.

These are both pillar players that Minnesota needs to see as foundational cornerstones of future lineups, and early returns should suggest they are both capable of doing just that.

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Takeaway #6. The Twins were not prepared to play this year. To have the manager say mid-season that they need to work on fundamentals and get back to playing fundamentally sound baseball, especially after winning 2 consecutive division titles really chaps my backside. What the heck were you working on, walk-up tunes and interviews?

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2 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Takeaway #6. The Twins were not prepared to play this year. To have the manager say mid-season that they need to work on fundamentals and get back to playing fundamentally sound baseball, especially after winning 2 consecutive division titles really chaps my backside. What the heck were you working on, walk-up tunes and interviews?

To be fair, it's easier to sit in the batter's box and swing.  Who the heck wants to chase down balls and have to run quickly around the bases?  Ugh.  That's for the birds.  Swing for the fences and pray!  The nachos in the dugout are getting cold, after all.

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Agree with most of this article. I would add a couple things.

1. The front office needs to do a better job of evaluating talent. Biggest questionmark is keeping a hopeless/hapless Jake Cave over a Akil Baddoo. Baddoo hitting .275 for the Tigers would be the best hitting outfielder on the Twins roster with Buxton on the sidelines. As highly touted as Baddoo was, how can anyone let him slip away in the rule 5 while holding onto to Jake Cave who has gotten worse every year since he started his career in 2018.

2. Waiting until the end of Free Agency to sign players, particularly Pitchers that you NEED is not a winning formula. If Terry Ryan taught this organization anything is that you can't go Dumpster Diving and have it make a difference. If the Pohlads say that the checkbook is open and Falvine can't get the best talent available signed then they are NOT doing their job. Start getting players in their prime instead of signing good veterans on the verge of the end of their careers hoping they still got it isn't a recipe for success. There aren't that many Nelson Cruz's out there. Quit expecting every older FA you sign to be like him. It isn't going to happen.

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26 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

To be fair, it's easier to sit in the batter's box and swing.  Who the heck wants to chase down balls and have to run quickly around the bases?  Ugh.  That's for the birds.  Swing for the fences and pray!  The nachos in the dugout are getting cold, after all.

They got nachos?

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6 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Agree with most of this article. I would add a couple things.

1. The front office needs to do a better job of evaluating talent. Biggest questionmark is keeping a hopeless/hapless Jake Cave over a Akil Baddoo. Baddoo hitting .275 for the Tigers would be the best hitting outfielder on the Twins roster with Buxton on the sidelines. As highly touted as Baddoo was, how can anyone let him slip away in the rule 5 while holding onto to Jake Cave who has gotten worse every year since he started his career in 2018.

2. Waiting until the end of Free Agency to sign players, particularly Pitchers that you NEED is not a winning formula. If Terry Ryan taught this organization anything is that you can't go Dumpster Diving and have it make a difference. If the Pohlads say that the checkbook is open and Falvine can't get the best talent available signed then they are NOT doing their job. Start getting players in their prime instead of signing good veterans on the verge of the end of their careers hoping they still got it isn't a recipe for success. There aren't that many Nelson Cruz's out there. Quit expecting every FA you sign to be like him. It isn't going to happen.

I agree with No. 1 completely. Levine has had trouble figuring out the talent in our system and the talent in other systems. Other than the Odorizzi trade, I'm not sure the Twins have won a trade under him.

But No. 2, I think needs clarification. From 01-10, the Twins got 117 starts from FA pitchers. And 59 of them were from re-signing Radke. The Twins simply couldn't get FA starters, instead getting starters from solid drafting, trades, rule v, and waivers. That's what Falvey, from small-payroll Cleveland, was supposed to create again. So far, it hasn't happened. But there is no way that the checkbook is open in a way that the Twins can compete for in their prime free agents. We've had three GMs in the last decade. Donaldson was by far our biggest FA signing and his salary will probably limit what the FO can do in free agency this offseason as well.

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At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group.  That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good).

The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team.  Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2.  Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot.  This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. 

Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now. 

 

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8 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I agree with No. 1 completely. Levine has had trouble figuring out the talent in our system and the talent in other systems. Other than the Odorizzi trade, I'm not sure the Twins have won a trade under him.

I'd argue the Maeda trade has been an unquestioned win to this point. 

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25 minutes ago, rv78 said:

1. The front office needs to do a better job of evaluating talent. Biggest questionmark is keeping a hopeless/hapless Jake Cave over a Akil Baddoo. Baddoo hitting .275 for the Tigers would be the best hitting outfielder on the Twins roster with Buxton on the sidelines. As highly touted as Baddoo was, how can anyone let him slip away in the rule 5 while holding onto to Jake Cave who has gotten worse every year since he started his career in 2018.

Bit revisionist history, yes? Baddoo was coming off a significant injury and the missing pandemic minor league year and in his last organized play year hadn't actually done anything of note (slash line of .214/.290/.393) and hadn't taken a single AB above A-ball. The decision was never "protect Cave or Baddoo"; Cave was someone who had 2 years of success at the MLB level for the Twins (and a poor pandemic year) and was well-suited to be a 4th OF...and broke his back this season. How can you let Baddoo go? Because you're betting that no team is going to be willing to keep a completely unproven player on the roster for a full season when he missed 1 1/2 seasons of development. It's the same kind of bet that they made on Miranda, and it went well. But the choice at the time was keep Baddoo or keep one of Celestino/Rortvedt, both of whom were more likely bets to be taken in the Rule 5. (backup catchers who can field and call a game can be stashed on a roster even if they can't hit, and proven defenders in CF are easier to hang onto as well because both can still add value even if they're not ready to hit at MLB)

I'm happy with Gordon's development so far and pleased to see him get the  chance with the Twins. He's never going to hit for power, but he's got a good feel for the strike zone and if he can get on base at a good clip, give speed and positional flexibility off the bench, then he'll be a nice utility option.

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27 minutes ago, Linus said:

Again with the Falvey pitching whisperer bit?  Our pitching staff is an abomination and he has developed exactly zero mlb pitchers. 
I do like the Gordon recognition 

This is the winning post in this thread.  We need to once and for all end the falacy that Falvey is some kind of pitcher whisper.  He has been here 5 yrs and identified as many quality pitchers as I have - zero (at a much higher salary I would add).

The other fact is there are many folks on here who routinely criticze (and rightfully so)  this FO for there inability to evaluate their own talent.  There are constantly posts about eliminating dead weight/wood to evaluate what the team has in the wings and these guys routinely tap cast-offs and has-beens instead of our own young talent which has unfortunately sprouted in other organizations periodically (whilst I have yet to see them identify and develop any of these cast-offs).

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38 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group.  That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good).

The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team.  Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2.  Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot.  This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. 

Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now. 

 

Excellent take. I agree 100%

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"Trevor Larnach joined Kirilloff sooner than expected, but it’s hard to pick apart much of what he’s done this season. Even while slumping of late, the 24-year-old owns a .322 OBP and has shown plenty of power potential. He’ll run into more baseballs as his career progresses, and the discipline in the box has been a sight to behold."

Huh? Sometimes he looks, almost, as lost as Sano at the plate.

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7 minutes ago, sjunisu said:

This is the winning post in this thread.  We need to once and for all end the falacy that Falvey is some kind of pitcher whisper.  He has been here 5 yrs and identified as many quality pitchers as I have - zero (at a much higher salary I would add).

The other fact is there are many folks on here who routinely criticze (and rightfully so)  this FO for there inability to evaluate their own talent.  There are constantly posts about eliminating dead weight/wood to evaluate what the team has in the wings and these guys routinely tap cast-offs and has-beens instead of our own young talent which has unfortunately sprouted in other organizations periodically (whilst I have yet to see them identify and develop any of these cast-offs).

Twins team ERA per season since the season before Falvey got here til now:

5.49, 4.86, 4.78, 4.65, 3.58, 5.36

Twins team ERA rank amongst all MLB teams per season since the season before Falvey got here til now:

29, 19, 22, 9, 4, 28

So yes, this year has been an unquestioned disaster, but let's not act like this team has had atrocious pitching the last couple years. They've had top 10 ERAs the last 2 years. So he's probably identified slightly more than 0 quality pitchers. He took an awful team with an awful farm and turned them into a top 10 staff after 2 seasons. Not sure what else you wanted from the guy.

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41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd argue the Maeda trade has been an unquestioned win to this point. 

How about the Odorizzi trade?  I am more upset about Nick Anderson and Tyler Wells then Baddoo.  Baddoo had very limited playing time in the previous 2 years and had a handful of ABs above high A.  It was not exactly reckless to expect he would not get picked up or that if he would not be ready for the MLB level.   It's also easy to point to keeping Jake Cave because fans tend to be very critical of this type of role player but they are valuable to staying in contention.  

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2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

How about the Odorizzi trade?  I am more upset about Nick Anderson and Tyler Wells then Baddoo.  Baddoo had very limited playing time in the previous 2 years and had a handful of ABs above high A.  It was not exactly reckless to expect he would not get picked up or that if he would not be ready for the MLB level.   It's also easy to point to keeping Jake Cave because fans tend to be very critical of this type of role player but they are valuable to staying in contention.  

that was in the post he quoted.....

Nick Anderson is the biggest fail for me......

Every team passed on Miranda this year, right? Every single GM was wrong about him, it appears....

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Just now, Major League Ready said:

How about the Odorizzi trade?  I am more upset about Nick Anderson and Tyler Wells then Baddoo.  Baddoo had very limited playing time in the previous 2 years and had a handful of ABs above high A.  It was not exactly reckless to expect he would not get picked up or that if he would not be ready for the MLB level.   It's also easy to point to keeping Jake Cave because fans tend to be very critical of this type of role player but they are valuable to staying in contention.  

The comment I replied to said Odorizzi was the only trade the Twins had won with Falvine. So I was just adding in the Maeda deal. Totally agree with everything there. There was talk of Baddoo possibly being taken before the rule 5, but you couldn't find a single person on the planet (nobody for the Tigers, and probably not even Akil himself) who thought he'd be putting up the numbers he is this year. Lots of revisionist history and 20/20 hindsight takes place during seasons like this. Understandably I guess. People need to blame someone.

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9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Twins team ERA per season since the season before Falvey got here til now:

5.49, 4.86, 4.78, 4.65, 3.58, 5.36

Twins team ERA rank amongst all MLB teams per season since the season before Falvey got here til now:

29, 19, 22, 9, 4, 28

So yes, this year has been an unquestioned disaster, but let's not act like this team has had atrocious pitching the last couple years. They've had top 10 ERAs the last 2 years. So he's probably identified slightly more than 0 quality pitchers. He took an awful team with an awful farm and turned them into a top 10 staff after 2 seasons. Not sure what else you wanted from the guy.

Falvey took over a team littered with an incredible nucleus of top 100 talents, that was a year removed from nearly making the playoffs. The farm system when he took over was arguably in better shape than it is now.

But the question is what do we want from him. The answer was simple - he was hired to recreate the Twins pitching pipeline that they relied on through 01-10. He hasn't done that yet.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

that was in the post he quoted.....

Nick Anderson is the biggest fail for me......

Every team passed on Miranda this year, right? Every single GM was wrong about him, it appears....

Miranda has to be the bright spot of the season.  Winder has been good but in terms of elevating a players ranking, wow!  Where doe everyone think ends up in terms of ranking?  Is he top 50 if he keeps this up the rest of the year?

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3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Miranda has to be the bright spot of the season.  Winder has been good but in terms of elevating a players ranking, wow!  Where doe everyone think ends up in terms of ranking?  Is he top 50 if he keeps this up the rest of the year?

around 75 I'd guess. His defense is still a question for sure. 

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3 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Falvey took over a team littered with an incredible nucleus of top 100 talents, that was a year removed from nearly making the playoffs. The farm system when he took over was arguably in better shape than it is now.

But the question is what do we want from him. The answer was simple - he was hired to recreate the Twins pitching pipeline that they relied on through 01-10. He hasn't done that yet.

I would argue he has created the pipeline.  Balazovic / Duran / Canterino / Ryan / Ober / Winder / Enlow / Sands / Ober / Strotman / Valimont / Varland.  I would say the 1st 10 have  good shot at being MLB starting pitchers.  Valimont and Varland are too far off to tell.  That's a better pitching pipeline than when Falvey got here in my opinion.  You seem to be saying he has not created MLB players yet which is true.  The difference is that the pipeline he inherited produced very little.  It's going to take another couple of years to compare the current regime in terms of developing a pitching pipeline.\

BTW ... There might be 2 or even 3 more guys added to that list in the next 24 hours and 13 minutes.

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3 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Falvey took over a team littered with an incredible nucleus of top 100 talents, that was a year removed from nearly making the playoffs. The farm system when he took over was arguably in better shape than it is now.

But the question is what do we want from him. The answer was simple - he was hired to recreate the Twins pitching pipeline that they relied on through 01-10. He hasn't done that yet.

Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, JT Chargois, Ben Rortvedt, Adalberto Mejia, and Nick Burdi make a better system than Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, Sabato, Canterino, Ryan, Cavaco, Urbina, Enlow, and Rooker? (That's the MLB.com ranks that I don't necessarily agree with) Agree to disagree on the idea that the system is even comparable to now. The depth in the system now far surpasses that from 2016, in my opinion.

I assume you're talking Sano, Buxton, Berrios when you say "incredible nucleus of top 100 talents." If you're talking total team talent I guess I'll agree to disagree there, too. Twins Win% from 2011 to now by season: .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364 (2016), .525, .481, .623, .600, .417. Hard to argue there was much on the MLB or in the minor leagues. They'd had 1 season over .500 in the 6 seasons before Falvey took over. They've had 3 in his 5 years. He didn't start with nothing, but let's not act like he was handed a team with any real previous success or the Dodgers' budget. 

Has he been perfect? No. Has he been great? No. Has he improved the team? There's no way you can argue he hasn't. This year has been awful. I get it. But, in my opinion, that shouldn't wipe out everything that happened before it. He failed this offseason. It's as simple as that. He misjudged the FA pitching he brought in. No debate against it. But outside of that he's been pretty darn good.

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9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

around 75 I'd guess. His defense is still a question for sure. 

I have watched 7 or 8 games now but he has been at 1st for half the games.  He looked good at 3B in the limited number of plays I have seen but you make a good point.  He is going to rank quite a bit higher if he projects to stick at 3B although I don't mind the flexibility of him being able to play 3 infield positions.

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Larnach is not as good as any one who came before him, slow afoot with a weak arm -- IF, if Kirilloff and Rooker do not turn into flash in the pan rookies as Cave did, they have a good future.

Willie Mays Hays Gordon is Willie Mays Hays Gordon, they can use him as Kansas City did in the past, a quick base runner when needed.

I do not know what happened to Simmons batting, but watch he lets SO MANY down the pipe go by without swinging makes me think he has vision problems but without his fielding ability the Tw(ins  will be in a world of hurt and NO ONE they have is even close to as good at that.

The more raw rookie the replacement outfielders were, the more like raw rookies the looked like; keep Refsnyder and Garlick and get rid of Cave. (Trade him to Detroit for Grossman.?

Pitching, sell , trade or dump all but Maeda, keep Pineda and shoot craps, cannot be worse than this year.

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Biggest takeaway of this year just may be the blockbuster Berrios trade. New post at mlbtraderumors sounds like the offers on the table are exceeding expectations. We can only hope for a best case scenario and we may have come upon one. Multiple teams, bidding war. It all sounds like a perfect storm. Oh boy. I'm a little nervous. And maybe excited. Not sure.

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