Should the Twins Cut Happ?

[Azviking101]

Tiny sample size, but in 2 starts with the Cardinals, Happ 11 innings, 6 Hits, 3 ERs. 

Maybe Shoemaker has a point about the over reliance on analytics. Curious to see if the Giants bring him up at some point this season.

[Cap'n Piranha]

9 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Tiny sample size, but in 2 starts with the Cardinals, Happ 11 innings, 6 Hits, 3 ERs. 

Maybe Shoemaker has a point about the over reliance on analytics. Curious to see if the Giants bring him up at some point this season.

To be fair, one of those starts was against the Pirates, and was 6 IP, 1H (a HR), 2 BB, 5k.  Here's Happ's line when he faced the Pirates while still a member of the Twins, on April 23; 7.1 IP, 1H (a 2B), 2 BB, 3k.

His other start was against the Braves, where he gave up 5H and 1 BB with 4k across 5 IP.  Not bad, but not exactly great either. 

Going forward, if we assume Happ pitches every 5th day, he'll finish the season against @KC, Pit, @Pit, @Cin, LAD, Cin, SD, @Mil, Mil.  Let's see how he does in what would be 6 straight games against above .500 teams, with 4 of those teams having top-12 offenses before we say Falvine/Wes are messing pitchers up.

[Azviking101]

Sure, but he was completely obliterated by the Royals, Tigers and Mariners (3 of the top 10 worst offenses in baseball in 4 of his last 8 Twins starts.

I just don't trust the Twins braintrust anymore. After trading away guys like Wade and Gil etc and dumping Wisler who's been dominant again with the Rays. The Giants told him stop throwing the Slider so much and the Rays let him do what he did so well last year. They just continue to make terrible decisions and free agents they sign come in and have the worst season of their careers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Tiny sample size, but in 2 starts with the Cardinals, Happ 11 innings, 6 Hits, 3 ERs. 

Maybe Shoemaker has a point about the over reliance on analytics. Curious to see if the Giants bring him up at some point this season.

The other side of that coin is that John Gant was an unmitigated disaster with the Cardinals and has been utterly dominant with the Twins in 5.2 IP.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

...To be fair, one of those starts was against the Pirates, and was 6 IP, 1H (a HR), 2 BB, 5k...

...His other start was against the Braves, where he gave up 5H and 1 BB with 4k across 5 IP.  Not bad, but not exactly great either...

Can't help but notice you dodged the runs allowed here. 

• 8/4 vs. ATL = 5.0 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR. 3.60 ERA, 4.78 FIP in 85 pitches 
• 8/10 vs. PIT = 6.0 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 1.50 ERA, 4.68 FIP in 86 pitches

Happ generated higher swinging strike rates and worked in the zone quite a bit more despite first pitch strike rates being about where he was. Happ is throwing more strikes and seems to have abandoned his curve and reduced his slider usage in STL which is similar to his pitch selection where he got walloped on 7/8 and 7/18 with the Twins in back to back appearances against Detroit, but on the 7/18 start, Happs control was pretty bad.

I don't see anything which would suggest Happ is doing anything he wasn't doing with the Twins except magically throwing strikes. Maybe catcher framing in Yadier Molina has benefitted Happ

[Rosterman]

We have to applaud that they did manage to get something for the guy most of us would've just let walk. Change of scenery always helps. I do wonder, still, if they were asking too much for Pineda. Sure, it is nice to have the (old) presence on the roster, but he is gone come October. Can't believe no one made an offer.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Can't help but notice you dodged the runs allowed here. 

• 8/4 vs. ATL = 5.0 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR. 3.60 ERA, 4.78 FIP in 85 pitches 
• 8/10 vs. PIT = 6.0 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 1.50 ERA, 4.68 FIP in 86 pitches

Happ generated higher swinging strike rates and worked in the zone quite a bit more despite first pitch strike rates being about where he was. Happ is throwing more strikes and seems to have abandoned his curve and reduced his slider usage in STL which is similar to his pitch selection where he got walloped on 7/8 and 7/18 with the Twins in back to back appearances against Detroit, but on the 7/18 start, Happs control was pretty bad.

I don't see anything which would suggest Happ is doing anything he wasn't doing with the Twins except magically throwing strikes. Maybe catcher framing in Yadier Molina has benefitted Happ

The post I quoted mentioned the runs he gave up--why would I parrot information already given?  I was simply pointing out that in the miniscule 2-start sample size the poster provided, one of those starts came against the 28th ranked offense by wRC+, a team Happ faced while with the Twins.  In that Twins start, Happ arguably pitched better against the Pirates than in the Cardinals start.  For what it's worth, the Braves are also a below average offense by wRC+ (98).  As such, using Happ's "renaissance" as evidence the Twins don't know what they're doing with pitching is pretty silly.  That isn't to say the possibility that Falvine is indeed screwing up their pitchers is is impossible, just that Happ is in no way proof of it.

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

...As such, using Happ's "renaissance" as evidence the Twins don't know what they're doing with pitching is pretty silly.  That isn't to say the possibility that Falvine is indeed screwing up their pitchers is is impossible, just that Happ is in no way proof of it.

If you actually read my post, you'd see I agreed with you.

[Cap'n Piranha]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If you actually read my post, you'd see I agreed with you.

I actually did read your post, but I don't know how much you agreed with me when you started it be claiming I "dodged" something.  That generally implies someone deliberately left something out, as they knew it wouldn't be helpful to them.  I'd recommend you not use that kind of language if you don't want people coming back at you.  I'd also recommend you not make assumptions about the actions or inactions of other people when you have no possible way of knowing.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure why we care about Happ. He's old, and not going to be on this roster, and they got a potentially real RP for him. 

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not sure why we care about Happ. He's old, and not going to be on this roster, and they got a potentially real RP for him. 

I think the thread was necro'd over the question of whether or not the "Twins way" messed Happ up given Happ's 2 good starts in a row and Shoemaker's complaint. It was a concern over the system, not about losing Happ from what I could tell.

FWIW, Shoemaker got absolutely shelled tonight and in his first game for the SF Giants AAA affiliate.

• 8/8 - 5.0 IP, 5 R, 5 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR
• 8/13 - 4.1 IP, 7 R, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 6 Ks, 2HR

Something tells me he's likely to be released tomorrow.

[yeahyabetcha]

Small sample size??  The guy has been pitching in the majors for how many years??  The facts suggest that he has never pitched worse in the majors than in his stint with the Twins.  It may be prudent for the organization to ask why that is.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 8/13/2021 at 11:12 AM, Cap'n Piranha said:

To be fair, one of those starts was against the Pirates, and was 6 IP, 1H (a HR), 2 BB, 5k.  Here's Happ's line when he faced the Pirates while still a member of the Twins, on April 23; 7.1 IP, 1H (a 2B), 2 BB, 3k.

His other start was against the Braves, where he gave up 5H and 1 BB with 4k across 5 IP.  Not bad, but not exactly great either. 

Going forward, if we assume Happ pitches every 5th day, he'll finish the season against @KC, Pit, @Pit, @Cin, LAD, Cin, SD, @Mil, Mil.  Let's see how he does in what would be 6 straight games against above .500 teams, with 4 of those teams having top-12 offenses before we say Falvine/Wes are messing pitchers up.

Last night, Happ started his stretch run gauntlet, as I called out above.  It did not go well, as Happ had, by game score, his worst start of the entire year.  13 batters faced, only retired 3, gave up 8 hits (2 HR), 2 walks, no strikeouts, and 7 earned runs, for a Game Score of -8.

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 8/14/2021 at 8:06 AM, yeahyabetcha said:

Small sample size??  The guy has been pitching in the majors for how many years??  The facts suggest that he has never pitched worse in the majors than in his stint with the Twins.  It may be prudent for the organization to ask why that is.  

I'm going to go with he's old, and has next-to-nothing left in the tank.

[Brock Beauchamp]

JA Happ in his first five starts with the Twins:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
Apr 6 to May 4, 2021	MIN	5	5	0	0	2-3	W-L:2-0	6.0	28.1	16	6	6	8	16	2	1	1.91	109	.160	.229	.280	.509	.171	468	61%	15%	7%	0.65		20%	5%	0	60		---%	0	0	0	100	6	0	0	1	0	0	.86	0.727	.77	0.34%	7.85	76.75	139.00
per 162 games		34	34	0	0			41	192	109	41	41	54	109	14	7		741						3182							34	0				0	0	0	680	41	0	0	7	0	0		4.9		2.3%	53.4	522	945

JA Happ in his first five starts with the Cardinals:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
Aug 4 to Aug 27, 2021	STL	5	5	0	0	3-2	W-L:3-0	5.0	28.1	20	7	7	9	23	4	0	2.22	110	.200	.266	.360	.626	.219	442	62%	15%	8%	0.47		23%	6%	0	59		---%	1	0	0	100	2	1	0	2	0	0	.86	0.667	.39	0.17%	7.75	90.35	169.00
per 162 games		34	34	0	0			34	192	136	48	48	61	156	27	0		748						3006							41	0				7	0	0	680	14	7	0	14	0	0		4.5		1.2%	52.7	614	1149

[GCTF]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

JA Happ in his first five starts with the Twins:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
per 162 games		34	34	0	0			41	192	109	41	41	54	109	14	7		741						3182							34	0				0	0	0	680	41	0	0	7	0	0		4.9		2.3%	53.4	522	945
Apr 6 to May 4, 2021	MIN	5	5	0	0	2-3	W-L:2-0	6.0	28.1	16	6	6	8	16	2	1	1.91	109	.160	.229	.280	.509	.171	468	61%	15%	7%	0.65		20%	5%	0	60		---%	0	0	0	100	6	0	0	1	0	0	.86	0.727	.77	0.34%	7.85	76.75	139.00

JA Happ in his first five starts with the Cardinals:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
per 162 games		34	34	0	0			34	192	136	48	48	61	156	27	0		748						3006							41	0				7	0	0	680	14	7	0	14	0	0		4.5		1.2%	52.7	614	1149
Aug 4 to Aug 27, 2021	STL	5	5	0	0	3-2	W-L:3-0	5.0	28.1	20	7	7	9	23	4	0	2.22	110	.200	.266	.360	.626	.219	442	62%	15%	8%	0.47		23%	6%	0	59		---%	1	0	0	100	2	1	0	2	0	0	.86	0.667	.39	0.17%	7.75	90.35	169.00

Well, that's it for him.

[yeahyabetcha]

13 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'm going to go with he's old, and has next-to-nothing left in the tank.

He still managed to produce at least 10 good to quality starts.  Is that horrible for someone who was brought in to be 4/5 starter?

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

He still managed to produce at least 10 good to quality starts.  Is that horrible for someone who was brought in to be 4/5 starter?

If he didn't pitch to a 10+ ERA between those good stints, that'd be pretty good.

Except he did pitch to a 10+ ERA between those good starts.

[RpR]

Which may say a lot about the Twins supposedly great pitching coach.

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

JA Happ in his first five starts with the Twins:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
per 162 games		34	34	0	0			41	192	109	41	41	54	109	14	7		741						3182							34	0				0	0	0	680	41	0	0	7	0	0		4.9		2.3%	53.4	522	945
Apr 6 to May 4, 2021	MIN	5	5	0	0	2-3	W-L:2-0	6.0	28.1	16	6	6	8	16	2	1	1.91	109	.160	.229	.280	.509	.171	468	61%	15%	7%	0.65		20%	5%	0	60		---%	0	0	0	100	6	0	0	1	0	0	.86	0.727	.77	0.34%	7.85	76.75	139.00

JA Happ in his first five starts with the Cardinals:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
per 162 games		34	34	0	0			34	192	136	48	48	61	156	27	0		748						3006							41	0				7	0	0	680	14	7	0	14	0	0		4.5		1.2%	52.7	614	1149
Aug 4 to Aug 27, 2021	STL	5	5	0	0	3-2	W-L:3-0	5.0	28.1	20	7	7	9	23	4	0	2.22	110	.200	.266	.360	.626	.219	442	62%	15%	8%	0.47		23%	6%	0	59		---%	1	0	0	100	2	1	0	2	0	0	.86	0.667	.39	0.17%	7.75	90.35	169.00

I am at a loss as to what we should conclude from his sudden improvement.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Which may say a lot about the Twins supposedly great pitching coach.

You think the Cardinals pitching coach fixed him over night?

[RpR]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

You think the Cardinals pitching coach fixed him over night?

Happ isn't the only pitcher that went down hill as the season got older.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

I am at a loss as to what we should conclude from his sudden improvement.

Likely nothing, as he imploded for the Cards in his sixth start, looking almost exactly like the starter we saw in Minnesota after five starts.

1.0 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

Look familiar?

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Likely nothing, as he imploded for the Cards in his sixth start, looking almost exactly like the starter we saw in Minnesota after five starts.

1.0 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

Look familiar?

Too soon to tell, but then Berrios fell apart too often and has done so for his new team also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, RpR said:

Too soon to tell, but then Berrios fell apart too often and has done so for his new team also.

I was hoping Berríos would dominate for the Jays, as they're one of the most fun teams in baseball and easy to cheer for in the postseason.

[Major League Ready]

42 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Likely nothing, as he imploded for the Cards in his sixth start, looking almost exactly like the starter we saw in Minnesota after five starts.

1.0 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

Look familiar?

I meant the whole thing is a bit perplexing.  I am assuming they signed him because he has been reliable.  He starts great.  Then, goes off the rails and back to pitching very well.    While he was not necessarily my first choice, I thought he was a solid signing.  This season was cursed.

[Irishman]

FO should be overhauled.   Baldelli and pitching coach should be fired.   

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Which may say a lot about the Twins supposedly great pitching coach.

Or it may say a lot about 38-year-olds.

[GCTF]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I was hoping Berríos would dominate for the Jays, as they're one of the most fun teams in baseball and easy to cheer for in the postseason.

All teams have bandwagon fans when they're in a playoff race. Now imagine an entire country of bandwagon fans who couldn't name two players on the team. It's pretty nauseating around here when the Jays are doing well. 

I certainly wish Berrios well, though.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, GCTF said:

All teams have bandwagon fans when they're in a playoff race. Now imagine an entire country of bandwagon fans who couldn't name two players on the team. It's pretty nauseating around here when the Jays are doing well. 

I certainly wish Berrios well, though.

It's easy, just name a good player from the late 90s or early 2000s. Chances are their kid is on the current Jays team.