Letting Byron Buxton Walk Will Haunt

[Whitey333]

Love all the comments here.  It is a difficult issue.  Buxton is good but hasn't proven any superstar status by his failure to be able to play.  He's played only 37% of games in last four years.  I just don't see the reasoning behind all these outlandish suggestions he should get somewhere around $150 mil deal.  He is a lifetime .247 hitter in 7 major league seasons.  I hope they keep him.  I think they will eventually sign him.  Don't forget he's under contract through next season so there is plenty of time for both sides to come together.

 

[gunnarthor]

Maybe we could get him the roids Boston gave Ortiz ....

[Aerodeliria]

1 hour ago, Platoon said:

I believe that Buxton is everything everyone says he is. And I believed it when he was struggling in the past. He is one of the players in the game that changes a team when he is on the field. 
 

I don’t believe the assertion that his injury history gives the Twins a chance to sign him on the cheap valid. I doubt a player of Buxtons age, or ability, looks at himself as vulnerable to age or injury. Despite recent history. 
 

I get the uninformed perception that he doesn’t want to stay here. Only he, and people far closer to the situation know if that’s true. If it is, money won’t do it. After that I agree with wsnydes. If you don’t think you can sign him, trade him. Get the best deal out there. Do not keep him through 2022 and maybe get a comp pick. That would simply add to the loss. 

Indeed! You can't believe a word you hear from either camp because there are the politics for show and below the surface lies the realities, which are oft times 180 degrees different.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I can't think of another player with Buxton's career stats that got $150M or even close?  The best comp is probably Springer last season. He got $150 over 6 years, not 5.  Springers career WAR is 26, Buxton's is 11.1.  Springer's career wRC+ is 135, Buxton's career wRC+ is 96 with a high of 118 with the exception of 110 PAs this season.  Do you have comps or are you coming up with this number out of the blue? 

From ESPN - He leads the Twins this year in (2.9) WAR while only playing 27 games, he is also 33rd in all of baseball. Lead the Twins in 2020 (1.9) while only playing 39 games and was 24th in all of baseball. Was 5th on the Twins in 2019 (3.1) while only playing 87 games and was 68th in baseball.

Meaning when healthy is a top 5 player in the game and should be paid like one, I completely understand he hasn't been healthy very often, but first it isn't my money so giving a potential top 5 player 100 million doesn't bother me and if he meets the incentives he would be worth 135-150. Secondly the team can insure the crap out of him, so it really doesn't cost that much and a sunk cost of 20 million shouldn't affect the Twins payroll all that much.

 

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

From ESPN - He leads the Twins this year in (2.9) WAR while only playing 27 games, he is also 33rd in all of baseball. Lead the Twins in 2020 (1.9) while only playing 39 games and was 24th in all of baseball. Was 5th on the Twins in 2019 (3.1) while only playing 87 games and was 68th in baseball.

Meaning when healthy is a top 5 player in the game and should be paid like one, I completely understand he hasn't been healthy very often, but first it isn't my money so giving a potential top 5 player 100 million doesn't bother me and if he meets the incentives he would be worth 135-150. Secondly the team can insure the crap out of him, so it really doesn't cost that much and a sunk cost of 20 million shouldn't affect the Twins payroll all that much.

 

I can get behind almost all of this.  He is valuable when on the field and I do think the Twins would be making a worthy gamble to give him 100M plus incentives.  Where I will disagree is the idea that 15/20M in dead money isn't a problem, it almost certainly would be.  But I believe it is a gamble worth taking if you can keep the guarantees around 15M per year. 

Even then, I wouldn't put good odds on us looking back at the contract in 2026 and feeling good about it.  

[Loosey]

Whether what he is saying is true or not Buxton says he wants to stay here.  If true the Twins need to pay him what he is worth.  Not 70 cents on the dollar.  I like my job and want to stay here but if I had a contract that renewed every year and I was offered 60-70% of what I would get elsewhere, I would leave.  

Now the Pohlad/Falvine dynamic is something I think fans should keep an eye on.  I get the impression Pohlad hasn't set a hard self-imposed salary cap for this team.  So, Buxton could and should be offered a market value contract.  And if Falvey and Levine are trying get a super star for cheap and end up losing him because they want to spend the savings on 3 mid-rotation starters Pohlad may fire them both.

Even if there is a "soft" self-imposed salary cap is say $150MM, they only have around $50MM (pre-arb) committed to players in 2022 So closer to $65MM probably.  That still leaves a huge chunk of money to fill out the roster with star players like Buxton and possibly Berrios.  I guess I'm confused as to what/who they plan to spend payroll on if it isn't Buxton or Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

All these quotes make me optimistic he stays. And I hope he does. I'd like to keep them both, frankly..... But I don't get the same vibe from Berrios....

The incentives need to be relatively easy to obtain.... He's healthy, he gets the huge bucks. He's not, he gets the big bucks. I'm quite shocked that it looks like a long term deal.....

[TwinsDr2021]

33 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Where I will disagree is the idea that 15/20M in dead money isn't a problem, it almost certainly would be. 

I guess I look at it as twins piss away between 5 and 15 million a year on guys like, Fernando Rodney, zach Duke, Jason Castro, Phil Hughes, Schoop, Perez, Bailey, Avila, Happ, Colome types; so yes they won't get those guys if he isn't healthy so they will have to go another step lower on the FA list

[wildtwinsfan045]

I agree with what Nick and many others have said: we can't afford to let him walk away and blossom elsewhere.  Better to take the plunge and sign him.  I would rather live or die with Byron than wonder what might have been.

My armchair GM move: Sign Buxton to a $15 mil/ year starting salary for at least 5 years, longer if he agrees.  Put a player option on the last year if you have to.  I would also put escalators based on plate appearances:

400 PA- $2.5 mil            450 PA- $2.5 mil             500 PA- $2.5 mil         550 PA- $2.5 mil

Best case Buxton plays all year and earns $25 mil, worst case he plays hopefully half a year for $15 mil.  I don't think we need to worry about his production, gone are the Paul Molitor days of "just try for a bunt single every time".  If he plays, his production will be elite.  I would be willing to take the risk, knowing that he would be worth it for even half a season at that price, knowing how good he has been. 

I would follow that up with getting the league's best 4th OF, either by free agency or trade (develop?), knowing Buck's injury history.  Someone you feel comfortable playing every day if you have to. 

Assuming all are healthy (HAHAHAHAHAHA), you could have a OF/ 1B, DH rotation of Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, 4th OF, and Arraez, with each of them playing five of every six games.

I don't think this is too crazy, right? Let's hope Buxton would like it too.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

From ESPN - He leads the Twins this year in (2.9) WAR while only playing 27 games, he is also 33rd in all of baseball. Lead the Twins in 2020 (1.9) while only playing 39 games and was 24th in all of baseball. Was 5th on the Twins in 2019 (3.1) while only playing 87 games and was 68th in baseball.

Meaning when healthy is a top 5 player in the game and should be paid like one, I completely understand he hasn't been healthy very often, but first it isn't my money so giving a potential top 5 player 100 million doesn't bother me and if he meets the incentives he would be worth 135-150. Secondly the team can insure the crap out of him, so it really doesn't cost that much and a sunk cost of 20 million shouldn't affect the Twins payroll all that much.

 

I don't think any GM / PBO is going to determine an offer based on 27 games which is why I asked for a comp.  He has ben a top 5 player for 27 games.  It sounds like you are basing your offer on 27 games where he has been fantastic for sure.  Now show us a comp of a $150M contract with even remotely similar past performance.  I suspect you avoided the question because you know there is not a comp, not even close.

[Eris]

9 minutes ago, wildtwinsfan045 said:

My armchair GM move: Sign Buxton to a $15 mil/ year starting salary for at least 5 years, longer if he agrees.  Put a player option on the last year if you have to.  I would also put escalators based on plate appearances:

400 PA- $2.5 mil            450 PA- $2.5 mil             500 PA- $2.5 mil         550 PA- $2.5 mil

Best case Buxton plays all year and earns $25 mil, worst case he plays hopefully half a year for $15 mil.  I don't think we need to worry about his production, gone are the Paul Molitor days of "just try for a bunt single every time".  If he plays, his production will be elite.  I would be willing to take the risk, knowing that he would be worth it for even half a season at that price, knowing how good he has been. 

 

I generally agree with these numbers and that 15 million is in the ballpark for the guaranteed value.  I arrived at 15 million by taking Mike Trout's salary and then prorating by the percentage of games played.  Mike Trout has appeared in 95% of the Angel's games over his career.  Buxton's availability is around 40%.  

I would add other performance benefits to the contract, e.g,, 10 million if he wins MVP, 5 million for 2nd place, etc. A value that would make his salary similar to Mike Trout's.

Also, we don't really know where Byron Buxton wants to play.  He is from Georgia.  Maybe he would accept a package from the Braves that he would not accept from the Twins.  Free agency is a players opportunity to choose their employer.  An opportunity that most of us could take every day.

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Loosey said:

Whether what he is saying is true or not Buxton says he wants to stay here.  If true the Twins need to pay him what he is worth.  Not 70 cents on the dollar.  I like my job and want to stay here but if I had a contract that renewed every year and I was offered 60-70% of what I would get elsewhere, I would leave.  

Now the Pohlad/Falvine dynamic is something I think fans should keep an eye on.  I get the impression Pohlad hasn't set a hard self-imposed salary cap for this team.  So, Buxton could and should be offered a market value contract.  And if Falvey and Levine are trying get a super star for cheap and end up losing him because they want to spend the savings on 3 mid-rotation starters Pohlad may fire them both.

Even if there is a "soft" self-imposed salary cap is say $150MM, they only have around $50MM (pre-arb) committed to players in 2022 So closer to $65MM probably.  That still leaves a huge chunk of money to fill out the roster with star players like Buxton and possibly Berrios.  I guess I'm confused as to what/who they plan to spend payroll on if it isn't Buxton or Berrios.

Actually, if they fill the roster with strictly prearb players, assuming minimum salary goes to 650K and Maeda's contract pays as expected, the payroll would be $94M.  The minimum is probably going to be higher than $650K but the difference probably not substantial in the context of this discussion.  Arb numbers are in blue.  They would need to spend quite a bit in the BP next year if they hope to contend.  

	Starters	SALARY
1	Jose Berrios	9,000,000
2	Kenta Maeda	9,000,000
3	Bailey Ober	650,000
4	Josh Winder	650,000
5	Jordan Balazovic	650,000
X	Matt Canterino
X	Cole Sands
X	Blayne Enlow
	Free Agent
	Relief Pitchers
6	Taylor Rogers	8,000,000
7	Tyler Duffey	3,300,000
8	Jorge Alcala	650,000
9	Prospect	650,000
10	?	650,000
12	?	650,000
12	?	650,000
13	?	650,000
	Colome (Buy Out)	1,250,000
	Catchers
14	Mitch Garver	2,900,000
15	Ryan Jeffers	650,000
	Infielders
16	Miguel Sano	9,250,000
17	Jorge Polanco	5,500,000
18	Josh Donaldson	21,750,000
19	SS	650,000
20	Luis Arraez	650,000
21	Nick Gordon	650,000
	Outfielders
22	Max Kepler	6,750,000
23	Byron Buxton	7,000,000
24	Trevor Larnach	650,000
25	Alex Kirilloff	650,000
26	Rob Refsneider	650,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	94,100,000

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe I'm just in a good mood coming off vacation....but they've been around .500 since the awful start. Add Buxton in there, sign one good SP (or trade for one) and one ok SP, and have the bullpen not implode, and I think that team can compete.

[Loosey]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Actually, if they fill the roster with strictly prearb players, assuming minimum salary goes to 650K and Maeda's contract pays as expected, the payroll would be $94M.  Arb numbers are in blue.  They would need to spend a considerable amount in the BP next year if they hope to contend.  

	Starters	SALARY
1	Jose Berrios	9,000,000
2	Kenta Maeda	9,000,000
3	Bailey Ober	650,000
4	Josh Winder	650,000
5	Jordan Balazovic	650,000
X	Matt Canterino
X	Cole Sands
X	Blayne Enlow
	Free Agent
	Relief Pitchers
6	Taylor Rogers	8,000,000
7	Tyler Duffey	3,300,000
8	Jorge Alcala	650,000
9	Prospect	650,000
10	?	650,000
12	?	650,000
12	?	650,000
13	?	650,000
	Colome (Buy Out)	1,250,000
	Catchers
14	Mitch Garver	2,900,000
15	Ryan Jeffers	650,000
	Infielders
16	Miguel Sano	9,250,000
17	Jorge Polanco	5,500,000
18	Josh Donaldson	21,750,000
19	SS	650,000
20	Luis Arraez	650,000
21	Nick Gordon	650,000
	Outfielders
22	Max Kepler	6,750,000
23	Byron Buxton	7,000,000
24	Trevor Larnach	650,000
25	Alex Kirilloff	650,000
26	Rob Refsneider	650,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	94,100,000

I had backed out Buxton and Berrios in my calculation because their arb #'s wouldn't be included if they were given new contracts.  So if you remove their $16M it's $78M.  I was still off by $13M.  But you can find away to sign at least Buxton.  A Donaldson trade and eat 50% of this contract adds back $10M, I could see Kepler being traded if Buxton is resigned, that's another $6.7M.  What I was trying to say (poorly) is they can still build a very good team even with paying Buxton market value.  If they hold Berrios next year and go for it they can add starters and BP help.  The front office makes it seem like if we sign either one of them we are going to be a $200M payroll to be competitive and that is just not the case.

[MABB1959]

they need both Berrios and Buxton no matter the cost.   I don't think one will want to stay w/o the other.  We need both to contend and they both want to be contenders.  

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Loosey said:

I had backed out Buxton and Berrios in my calculation because their arb #'s wouldn't be included if they were given new contracts.  So if you remove their $16M it's $78M.  I was still off by $13M.  But you can find away to sign at least Buxton.  A Donaldson trade and eat 50% of this contract adds back $10M, I could see Kepler being traded if Buxton is resigned, that's another $6.7M.  What I was trying to say (poorly) is they can still build a very good team even with paying Buxton market value.  If they hold Berrios next year and go for it they can add starters and BP help.  The front office makes it seem like if we sign either one of them we are going to be a $200M payroll to be competitive and that is just not the case.

Where has the FO implied any such thing? 

[TwinsDr2021]

55 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't think any GM / PBO is going to determine an offer based on 27 games which is why I asked for a comp.  He has ben a top 5 player for 27 games.  It sounds like you are basing your offer on 27 games where he has been fantastic for sure.  Now show us a comp of a $150M contract with even remotely similar past performance.  I suspect you avoided the question because you know there is not a comp, not even close.

Trout 37, Springer 23, heyward 23.5, Upton 23, Myers, 22.5, Betts 22.5. Blackmon 21.3, McCutchen 20, Pollock 18, Fowler 16.5, Bellinger 16.1, Brantley 16, Ozuna 16, Cain, 16, Castellanos 14.1, Yelich 14, Marte 12.5

Where does Buxton seeing himself fit into that group? If I am him my absolute floor is Fowler/Ozuna and my cap is just north of Springer. So pay me my floor give me a chance to get to my ceiling.

Also IMO he has been a top 5 player when healthy basically since 2019.

Also I am good with you and many, many others having a different opinion than mine, that is what makes it great talking about things, so there really is no need demanding others to show anything or attack them. your could have left out the last two lines of your reply and made the same point.

[Loosey]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Trout 37, Springer 23, heyward 23.5, Upton 23, Myers, 22.5, Betts 22.5. Blackmon 21.3, McCutchen 20, Pollock 18, Fowler 16.5, Bellinger 16.1, Brantley 16, Ozuna 16, Cain, 16, Castellanos 14.1, Yelich 14, Marte 12.5

Where does Buxton seeing himself fit into that group? If I am him my absolute floor is Fowler/Ozuna and my cap is just north of Springer. So pay me my floor give me a chance to get to my ceiling.

Also IMO he has been a top 5 player when healthy basically since 2019.

Also I am good with you and many, many others having a different opinion than mine, that is what makes it great talking about things, so there really is no need demanding others to show anything or attack them. your could have left out the last two lines of your reply and made the same point.

It seems Buxton’s side was fine with $80M base guarantee.  It’s the escalators they disagreed on.  Here is a snippet from The Athletic.

If that’s true, the Twins should be able to either up the guarantee or the escalators.  Even though talks broke off it seems they aren’t that far off.

[Loosey]

54 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where has the FO implied any such thing? 

Implied the $200M figure?  They haven’t directly.  But by not paying guys their worth they imply that can’t afford to pay market and in turn make it seem like market value would make overall payroll too high.  Just the way I read into it.  Maybe I shouldn’t write my thoughts on what I think they are implying. Or write it in a different way.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What about getting both Buxton and Berríos to sign something like 6/130 together? It could be like the Parise/Suter contracts all over again!  

[LanceJS]

I've said this for years and will continue to do so - I always defended the departure of Ortiz. He was not going to be the player he became in Boston because a) he wasn't well liked by Kelly and coaching staff, b) the styles of developing and using players between the two franchises was very different and c) Ortiz found better PEDs in Boston.  I know many go crazy when I say C but c'mon was he really that different than Bonds, Clemens, Pudge Rodriguez and others?  He just was so well liked by media and fans that he was a "good guy" and therefore clean whereas the poor personalities of Bonds and Clemens in comparisons cost them PR, which meant HOF support. 

[Platoon]

2 hours ago, Loosey said:

Whether what he is saying is true or not Buxton says he wants to stay here.  If true the Twins need to pay him what he is worth.  Not 70 cents on the dollar.  I like my job and want to stay here but if I had a contract that renewed every year and I was offered 60-70% of what I would get elsewhere, I would leave.  

Now the Pohlad/Falvine dynamic is something I think fans should keep an eye on.  I get the impression Pohlad hasn't set a hard self-imposed salary cap for this team.  So, Buxton could and should be offered a market value contract.  And if Falvey and Levine are trying get a super star for cheap and end up losing him because they want to spend the savings on 3 mid-rotation starters Pohlad may fire them both.

Even if there is a "soft" self-imposed salary cap is say $150MM, they only have around $50MM (pre-arb) committed to players in 2022 So closer to $65MM probably.  That still leaves a huge chunk of money to fill out the roster with star players like Buxton and possibly Berrios.  I guess I'm confused as to what/who they plan to spend payroll on if it isn't Buxton or Berrios.

I would not know if JP has put out a salary cap or not. Nor would I know if Bill Smith had one? I wonder if Bill Smith knew? ???

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Trout 37, Springer 23, heyward 23.5, Upton 23, Myers, 22.5, Betts 22.5. Blackmon 21.3, McCutchen 20, Pollock 18, Fowler 16.5, Bellinger 16.1, Brantley 16, Ozuna 16, Cain, 16, Castellanos 14.1, Yelich 14, Marte 12.5

Where does Buxton seeing himself fit into that group? If I am him my absolute floor is Fowler/Ozuna and my cap is just north of Springer. So pay me my floor give me a chance to get to my ceiling.

Also IMO he has been a top 5 player when healthy basically since 2019.

Also I am good with you and many, many others having a different opinion than mine, that is what makes it great talking about things, so there really is no need demanding others to show anything or attack them. your could have left out the last two lines of your reply and made the same point.

No, I could not have made the same point.  The point is no player with his track record has every gotten a guarantee anywhere near $125-150M you suggest is necessary to be legit.  My point was that you used a very specific term "legitimate".  Comps legitimize such a position not opinions.  What you did was doubled down on an opinion.  If your position is legitimate, there will be examples of other players with similar track records that have signed contracts for $125-150M accurate,  I think you know those examples don't exist but persist regardless.

You are comparing him to players with a much more established track record of production.  Buxton has a career WAR of 11.1.  His highest wRC+ 118 and that was a season in which he 135 PAs.  His highest wRC+ in a season with more than 200 ABS is 111.  He has not produced at a level that warrants 150M contract for more than a spurt.  The really tough part is I agree with you and others who suggest there is a decent chance he will going forward.   It's a very tough call.  

[Brandon]

I think the breakdown signals the end of Berrios with the Twins.  The Twins would probably be ok with one of Berrios or Buxton walk after next season but not both.  I think they may be closer to an extension with Buxton then Berrios so rather than risk loosing both next season they may trade Berrios while still trying to sign Buxton and letting him walk if no deal comes together.  I say Berrios may be traded since both San Diego and Los Angeles are neck and neck in a fight for the playoffs and such and both can over pay to get Berrios and both might just to keep the other team from getting him added to the fact that they need him as well.

 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, LanceJS said:

I've said this for years and will continue to do so - I always defended the departure of Ortiz. He was not going to be the player he became in Boston because a) he wasn't well liked by Kelly and coaching staff, b) the styles of developing and using players between the two franchises was very different and c) Ortiz found better PEDs in Boston.  I know many go crazy when I say C but c'mon was he really that different than Bonds, Clemens, Pudge Rodriguez and others?  He just was so well liked by media and fans that he was a "good guy" and therefore clean whereas the poor personalities of Bonds and Clemens in comparisons cost them PR, which meant HOF support. 

Ortiz had 53 extra base hits in 412 AB. that is one per 7.77 ABs.  That is a strong showing and he was just entering his prime.  While Ortiz may not have been the same as what he became, He was about to break out.  and the Twins were starving for power.  They let him go over a 2 million payout.  Even back then that wasn't much money.  The idea was to replace him with LeCroy who had 19 WBH in 181 AB and had a 98 +OPS vs Ortiz 120 +OPS The Twins should not have let Ortiz go when they did.

[strumdatjag]

Overpaying can haunt too.  Bobby Bonilla. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

No, I could not have made the same point.  The point is no player with his track record has every gotten a guarantee anywhere near $125-150M you suggest is necessary to be legit.  My point was that you used a very specific term "legitimate".  Comps legitimize such a position not opinions.  What you did was doubled down on an opinion.  If your position is legitimate, there will be examples of other players with similar track records that have signed contracts for $125-150M accurate,  I think you know those examples don't exist but persist regardless.

You are comparing him to players with a much more established track record of production.  Buxton has a career WAR of 11.1.  His highest wRC+ 118 and that was a season in which he 135 PAs.  His highest wRC+ in a season with more than 200 ABS is 111.  He has not produced at a level that warrants 150M contract for more than a spurt.  The really tough part is I agree with you and others who suggest there is a decent chance he will going forward.   It's a very tough call.  

I completely understand what you are saying, I am just of the opinion that if the Twins want him and they want to sign him now you make an offer he can't refuse. If the Twins truly want him they have to believe the injuries have been freak and won't continue and he will continue in his prime like he has when he has played the last few years. They could negotiate based on other players and tell him how much he has been injured and how his career WAR is only 11.1, is that going to get him or is that going to get him to bet on himself? I don't think either of us know that answer. 

To be honest I am not sure there is another player like him, maybe going way back it could be Eric Davis, when he played he was awesome, but man he could never stay healthy either, and if anybody believes that could be him going forward, you absolutely don't commit any long term money his way. 

Plus my original post said 5/100 with incentives that could get him to 135-150. not a guarantee of 135-150, sure maybe 100 million is too much guaranteed money (but it is not my money and I could care less about the Pohlads money) but it is sure to draw his attention and would be hard for him to say no.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Overpaying can haunt too.  Bobby Bonilla. 

That deal was genius for the team. It kept their present value costs very low, and they might not have been able to sign the guys they did had they signed him to a traditional deal. I've read several long posts about how great it really was.

[Major League Ready]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

 

Plus my original post said 5/100 with incentives that could get him to 135-150. not a guarantee of 135-150, sure maybe 100 million is too much guaranteed money (but it is not my money and I could care less about the Pohlads money) but it is sure to draw his attention and would be hard for him to say no.

I am more concerned they sign Buxton than Berrios so don't get me wrong.  I want them to sign him.  My objection is two fold.  One, people taking a hard stance with very little information.  Two, he has performed at an elite level for a very short period of time AND he has not been able to stay on the field.  So, the comparisons of players that have produced at an elite level and stayed relatively healthy is just not valid for determining compensation.

The other point I will make is that spending wisely and winning has a more significant correlation as revenue compared to the top teams decreases.  Let's just say we want to build a team with players producing 50 WAR.  The Twins can spend about $3M per WAR and the top teams can spend $5M+ per WAR.  Therefore, we have to be far more efficient with our spending.  It's not an opinion.  It's hard fact.  Therefore, to not care about spending effectively is to not care about decreasing our chances to win.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I completely understand what you are saying, I am just of the opinion that if the Twins want him and they want to sign him now you make an offer he can't refuse. If the Twins truly want him they have to believe the injuries have been freak and won't continue and he will continue in his prime like he has when he has played the last few years. They could negotiate based on other players and tell him how much he has been injured and how his career WAR is only 11.1, is that going to get him or is that going to get him to bet on himself? I don't think either of us know that answer. 

To be honest I am not sure there is another player like him, maybe going way back it could be Eric Davis, when he played he was awesome, but man he could never stay healthy either, and if anybody believes that could be him going forward, you absolutely don't commit any long term money his way. 

Plus my original post said 5/100 with incentives that could get him to 135-150. not a guarantee of 135-150, sure maybe 100 million is too much guaranteed money (but it is not my money and I could care less about the Pohlads money) but it is sure to draw his attention and would be hard for him to say no.

If Dan Hayes and his sources are to be believed you've overshot what Buxton is willing to take in guaranteed money. Hayes says Buxton (his agents) and the Twins are on the same page with a base 7/80 deal. It's the top end of his incentives that are the holdup right now. Maybe Hayes' sources are wrong, but with the way Buxton is talking it sure sounds like they're relatively close and he isn't expecting 100M guaranteed.