Trading Josh Donaldson Is the Right Call

[Rosterman]

Donaldson WAS a Grade-A player, but the Twins got played, more by the fan base than anything. To prove that they weren't on the cheap, the opened the pocketbooks after being rejected by almost every free agent in the marketplace.

 

As a Twins fan, we always want the pocket book to open BIG and expect that throwing money at players willo egt them to come here. But as the past has shown, we either get mid-range free agents, guys looking to make a bigger comeback, or we are just overlooked. No amount of money will entice the top of the free agent tiers to come to town. Sadly, the truth.

So the Twins need to do what Target Field was supposedly built to do. Jeep our own free agents. In the past we allowed Cuddyer, Hunter, Nathan to walk. Are we going to do the same with Buxton and Berrios? Always a gamble, but signing any free agent is a gamble, and even the low-end successes of the Twins have had been short-term and not that gracious when looking at the big picture of year-after-year performance (see Odorizzi, Pineda, Gonzalez, Cron, Schoop...plus the one-year wonders of Homer Bailey, Shoemaker, 

 

We keep thinking we are better situated than teams like, say, the Royals, or even the on-the-cheap A's who pull off miracles with low-end signings and trades.

 

Donaldson was a good solid signing for a team in contention who was looking for stability at a position of weakness (at the time), leadership skills on the field, and everyday play. I'll let you decide what the free agent signing has brought us.

 

Maybe as fans we have to stop dreaming that the BIG CONTRACT will happen with the Twins getting the outside superstar to anchor the home-grown talent stage. Or maybe we do have to realize that we need to line-up behind front office choices on drafting, trading, making a team, and supplementing the team with short-term needs (i.e. trade deadline acquisitions/rentals when needed).

 

It has been so long since we had a World Series. We dream that management will make choices that will take us beyond a division win, or entry into the championship tier. Tired of not being on the World Stage after a long season of brilliant ballplay that is fliushed down the toilet in a five or seven game series.

If there is a taker for Donaldson, the two questions remain: how much salary do the Twins have to eat, and what is the best prospect/s they can get in return.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Donaldson WAS a Grade-A player, but the Twins got played, more by the fan base than anything. To prove that they weren't on the cheap, the opened the pocketbooks after being rejected by almost every free agent in the marketplace.

 

As a Twins fan, we always want the pocket book to open BIG and expect that throwing money at players willo egt them to come here. But as the past has shown, we either get mid-range free agents, guys looking to make a bigger comeback, or we are just overlooked. No amount of money will entice the top of the free agent tiers to come to town. Sadly, the truth.

So the Twins need to do what Target Field was supposedly built to do. Jeep our own free agents. In the past we allowed Cuddyer, Hunter, Nathan to walk. Are we going to do the same with Buxton and Berrios? Always a gamble, but signing any free agent is a gamble, and even the low-end successes of the Twins have had been short-term and not that gracious when looking at the big picture of year-after-year performance (see Odorizzi, Pineda, Gonzalez, Cron, Schoop...plus the one-year wonders of Homer Bailey, Shoemaker, 

 

We keep thinking we are better situated than teams like, say, the Royals, or even the on-the-cheap A's who pull off miracles with low-end signings and trades.

 

Donaldson was a good solid signing for a team in contention who was looking for stability at a position of weakness (at the time), leadership skills on the field, and everyday play. I'll let you decide what the free agent signing has brought us.

 

Maybe as fans we have to stop dreaming that the BIG CONTRACT will happen with the Twins getting the outside superstar to anchor the home-grown talent stage. Or maybe we do have to realize that we need to line-up behind front office choices on drafting, trading, making a team, and supplementing the team with short-term needs (i.e. trade deadline acquisitions/rentals when needed).

 

It has been so long since we had a World Series. We dream that management will make choices that will take us beyond a division win, or entry into the championship tier. Tired of not being on the World Stage after a long season of brilliant ballplay that is fliushed down the toilet in a five or seven game series.

If there is a taker for Donaldson, the two questions remain: how much salary do the Twins have to eat, and what is the best prospect/s they can get in return.

there is a 0% chance the FO signed Donaldson to prove they weren't cheap. They signed him because they believed in this core and their ability to find pitching. 

[Dodecahedron]

If the Twins ever want to prove to me that they are not cheap by sending over a big check, they are free to do so at any time.

[nicksaviking]

I don't know. I think the Twins are going to have to eat more salary than they'd be willing to eat to actually get any value back. If he's a net negative due to clubhouse presence (which I don't think we've actually seen anything credible to support), sure move him. Otherwise, he's probably the kind of player who gains value as he sheds contract.

I've felt for the last year that the front office built this team to jack a ton of HR, then the team face-planted when the league de-juiced the ball. Because of this I've been arguing to completely restructure the offensive identity of this team.

However, now that the league has de-stickied the balls, it would be just like the fortunes of this club to tear apart the Bomba Squad only to see that that was exactly what wins championships in the version of baseball that is played in 2022. I'm not sure how the team should proceed, but I think I'm more of the mind to only sell off the bats that are rentals or redundant, and let the team do as they may with the bullpen asset(s). We'll probably have a better grasp of what this team (and all teams) will look like next year based off of how they react to the changes in the 2nd half of this year. I thought they were due for a rebuild, but with the game becoming more offensive friendly, maybe not.

[jorgenswest]

I never expected that Target Field would be the difference between a team that ranked in the bottom quartile according to revenue to a team that could keep all of the their free agents. It moved them into the third quartile and appears to have allowed one big contract in Mauer and then Donaldson. My only expectation is that their payroll rank is at least as high as their revenue rank.

If they can trade Donaldson and recapture enough to give be able to keep Buxton and/or Berrios that would be my preference.

[bean5302]

My only concerns about Donaldson are how he performs on the field and how he impacts the roster. At $23MM per year, he takes a big chunk out of the Twins' payroll. Is that $23MM better spent elsewhere is the question I ask. I remain concerned about Donaldson's ability to stay on the field and about the value he's going to add as he ages into his upper 30s under the contract.

As far as 3B is concerned, the most likely replacement candidates on the roster are Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez. Gordon has largely been ignored as a prospect for the last couple years, but is holding his own at the MLB level right now with a very small sample size. I think Gordon is probably the better of the two as a defensive option at 3B, but Arraez is a proven, MLB worthy hitter. I wouldn't expect either to be an All Star caliber 3B so expecting them to totally replace Donaldson seems far-fetched. Digging into the MiLB system, Jose Miranda is the obvious top 3B candidate, but like so many others, the Twins absolutely refuse to pick a position for their prospects to actually play... doing those prospects an enormous disservice in my opinion. Nick Gordon has the arm strength and agility to be a shortstop if only the error rate could be reigned in... and with nobody close in the minors, it sure would be nice to be able to dream of Gordon regaining weight, staying healthy and fixing some of the error rate to evolve into a SS.

In any case, I think Donaldson is about a 3-4 WAR 3B across a full season. I think Arraez would be a 2-3 WAR 3B. The question is can that $23MM be spent somewhere else to make the Twins better overall than the 0-2 WAR they'd be losing? I think it could be.

 

[Minny505]

Yup. Like Berrios, Buxton, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Robles, Kepler, Pineda, Happ, Garver, Arraez, Polanco, etc, they should be placing calls to everyone about each of them to see how many teams are willing to offer good value for any of their current 26 man roster players with 2+ years of experience. 

It would be a dereliction of duty for the FO to not be trying to find a trade of value for all of them, including Donaldson. No other rationale is really needed. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Perhaps it’s simply coincidence that ever since the Giolito incident, articles have been written about him being the least liked person on the team and now is the time to trade him. To me, it looks like we’ve turned on him quickly. He’s still producing, and if he transitions to a DH/3B role, who’s to say he won’t play in more games? 

Well the likability article was obviously a reaction to the Giolito incident, and the general JD experience that it represented. It was also one writer's opinion and if you went through the comments I'm sure you noticed it was not a very popular or commonly shared opinion. 

This article is a reaction to the fact that he's one of the most likely Twins to get traded with the deadline 3 weeks away. It has nothing to do with his likability or personality, both of which I made sure to steer clear of in articulating the case because they distract from the actual points.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Perhaps it’s simply coincidence that ever since the Giolito incident, articles have been written about him being the least liked person on the team and now is the time to trade him. To me, it looks like we’ve turned on him quickly. He’s still producing, and if he transitions to a DH/3B role, who’s to say he won’t play in more games? 

It isn't coincidence.....it's July 6th and trade season.  No grand conspiracy.

If Donaldson is now a half time DH to stay on the field.....I'd argue that's even more reason to move on.  The best argument for keeping him is as a full time, good fielding 3B. 

[rv78]

Donaldson is quickly becoming DH only material and that will change too when he no longer can run around the bases due to his leg problems. Any reasonable offer should be jumped at. We have Arraez and Sano who can handle 3rd base until the call is made to make Miranda the permanent fixture there. I'd like to see that move before the end of this season. Had we not lost Cave, Buxton, Kepler, and so on, in the outfield they wouldn't have brought up Larnach when they did and he has done nothing to disappoint. Clearly a much better hitter than Cave or Kepler. Why does this organization let their young players like Larnach stagnate in the minors unless an emergency forces them to use 'em? You could say the same thing for Jeffers last year. With Arraez and Sano able to play 3rd it opens the door for Kirilloff to play 1st and a trade of Donaldson easy peasy lemon squeezy. 

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

As far as 3B is concerned, the most likely replacement candidates on the roster are Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez. Gordon has largely been ignored as a prospect for the last couple years, but is holding his own at the MLB level right now with a very small sample size. I think Gordon is probably the better of the two as a defensive option at 3B, but Arraez is a proven, MLB worthy hitter. I wouldn't expect either to be an All Star caliber 3B so expecting them to totally replace Donaldson seems far-fetched. Digging into the MiLB system, Jose Miranda is the obvious top 3B candidate, but like so many others, the Twins absolutely refuse to pick a position for their prospects to actually play... doing those prospects an enormous disservice in my opinion. Nick Gordon has the arm strength and agility to be a shortstop if only the error rate could be reigned in... and with nobody close in the minors, it sure would be nice to be able to dream of Gordon regaining weight, staying healthy and fixing some of the error rate to evolve into a SS.

 

Interestingly enough, Gordon has only played one game in his professional career at 3B.  2016 with Ft. Myers where he had three chances with a PO, an assist and an error.  I'm not sure that proves anything either way, I just found it interesting since I didn't think Gordon had ever played the hot corner.  

At this point, getting him in a game should be a priority anyway.  If that's who they throw over there if Donaldson is traded, fine by me.  I know that I don't want Sano there and I'm not crazy about Arraez there.  I'm still leery about Miranda at this point.  I'd be fine if they brought him up, but I think I'd rather see Gordon get some reps there first.  Assuming he's not getting reps elsewhere due to other trades anyway.    

[se7799]

This season is why I was upset we did not go all in at the 2019 trade deadline.  We chose not to pounce and played it safe.  With many fans screaming to not trade away prospects at the time.  Well here we are, no world championship, 100 loss season 2 years after....but hey we still have our prospects.

[Thegrin]

When we signed Donaldson we were paying for production.  1 1/2 seasons into the contract, Donaldson's  value has declined. Why would any team give the Twins anything of significant value for him? Since the money is already spent, the Twins would probably get more value by playing Donaldson only when he is the best player at his position. Make him earn his playing time. Thome earned more playing time than he was expected to give. Cruz has proved to be worth every minute on the field and every dollar spent on him.

Inste of thinking that we must play Donaldson because of his contract, or trade him to save some money, We should treat him as a player and a teammate and let his numbers determine his playing time..

As for "dumping" veterans to save money or gain prospects, we should only do this if we can make significant signings of some of our current players. Wouldn't you love to see Kiriloff, Arraez or Larnach signed to a long-term contract?

[mnfireman]

How is Donaldson not earning his playing time? Of qualified 3B, he has the 5th highest OPS, 3rd highest ISO, 3rd best AB/HR, 3rd best BB/K, 2nd BB% and 7th best SO%. I think his numbers have earned him his playing time.

[FritzDahmus]

My hindsight has always been really really sharp.

So I'll use it again -- They should have spent the money on a starter not named Madison Bumgarner, and not Josh Donaldson. Donaldson is just ok as a hitter and has flashed an ok glove. Very disappointing.

But what he really excels at, is something we don't need more of.....................landing on the IL.

Trade him and hold out for a nice return. Because, and tell Pohlad, you could do a lot worse than JD at 3rd.....so spend the money.....then over pay for a bunch of pitchers. I dare you, you cheap bastard. 

[GNess]

16 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

How is Donaldson not earning his playing time? Of qualified 3B, he has the 5th highest OPS, 3rd highest ISO, 3rd best AB/HR, 3rd best BB/K, 2nd BB% and 7th best SO%. I think his numbers have earned him his playing time.

Agreed. JD has been doing fine.

[Mike Sixel]

He's not paid to "do fine"....though. that's one of the issues for this team.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I make no argument we will be downgrading the position to some degree by trading him.  Though, given his health issues and the available options, perhaps not as much as some would like to think.

I don't have a foot firmly in either camp right now.

I'm certain any cost savings will be spun as $$ to throw at Berrios or Buxton, but I'm doubtful the Twins would pay the actual cost to retain either, regardless of Donaldson's status. If we're talking about taking $10-$15M annually in savings (chosen with no basis) and splitting it between 2 more back end fliers for the rotation, or trying to cobble together a 3B Platoon (Arraez + ?) and a low end SS is the team really better off? I think if you're moving Donaldson the return, whether $$ or talent, needs to solidify a position of need for multiple years. I'm concerned the FO is willing and able to do that. 

I understand the injury stance. He does feel like a bit of a time bomb in that regard. His history will certainly weigh into the decision but this all boils down to what direction they plan to go after the move.  

[USAFChief]

Trade from excess, and/or trade guys who won't be under contract soon.

 

Neither of those things describe Donaldson.

[bean5302]

I do see some calls for Sano to play 3B, but I'm having a hard time seeing the Twins ever putting Sano back into the field at a position other than 1B unless it's an emergency. Putting aside the high risk of him developing injuries, he's had no significant time at 3B since 2019 and he was awfully rough in the field even back then. This year, in 3 games started and roughly 4 games played, he has 3 errors at 3B with a 72.7% fielding rate. That would correspond to over 100 errors in a single full season.

[Mark G]

14 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Nick, you have presented a persuasive argument but as I posited in my blog:  http://Going Forward - Retool or Rebuild?, I look at a Donaldson trade this year as a nail in the coffin for a retool rather than a rebuild.  First, the Twins do not have a replacement for him at 3B.  Arraez doesn't have the arm for the position, Miranda is promising but it's a long jump to filling JD's shoes next year, and Sano's time as a Twin looks over.  Second, assuming Cruz is traded by July 31st, the loss of both these guys would leave a massive hole in our 2022 lineup.  I like Kirillof and Larnach but sophomore slumps are just too frequent in this game(look at Jeffers) and, other than Buxton, there are no all stars on this team that could be expected to lead the offense next year.

Of course, if someone offered a top pitching prospect for Josh, we should jump at it, but how likely is that to occur unless we throw in a big dollar contribution?   And if so, what does that do to our ability to retain Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers or sign one of the premier FA SSs on the market this offseason?  If there was some acknowledgment by ownership that the purse strings will be loosened to accomplish a successful retooling next year, life would be much simpler.  But looking at past history and the inability of this FO to find quality nuggets in the discard basket, my bet going forward is an unsuccessful retooling effort followed by years of a rebuild.

I agree across the board except for one thing.  We have a premier SS on the roster already; one source rated him the 3rd best defensive player among position players regardless of the position they play (however they figure that).  Not sure there is an upgrade out there without it costing even more than Simmons does now.  I can live with Kiriloff at first, and, all told, the current infield with him there looks good to me.  And since I said that out loud, JD and Simmons won't see August, much less next year,  :)

[bean5302]

40 minutes ago, Mark G said:

...We have a premier SS on the roster already...

Very few people would dispute Simmons being a great fielding shortstop, but he's on a 1 year contract and his bat looks like it's in significant decline. Simmons has really struggled to make good contact and seems to be struggling to catch up to fastballs. I agree a sure fire starting shortstop will likely cost more than Simmons' $10.5MM in free agency.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I like that idea. I think the chances of getting much pitching talent for Donaldson at the deadline aren’t very high. Make the deal if we can, but in the more likely event that we can’t, the off-season is the time to make that decision. 

[jorgenswest]

Wouldn’t the supply be greater in the off-season with free agency? Teams will also have prospects who have yet to fail and starters yet to be injured.

I suppose the demand would be greater with more buyers but the number of teams that would take on Donaldson’s contract will be limited in season or not.

Miranda is close. I would trade Donaldson now, play Miranda next year and redirect any savings towards Berrios or Buxton or pitching.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I like Donaldson but the smart thing is to unload his salary. To unload Donaldson, they'll have to eat a portion of his salary and what we get back won't be much. Unloading Donaldson will mean a down grade at 3rd. To be half way respectable we'll need a decent SS, it'll be a terrible mistake to put Polanco back there.

As I stated before our only option is retooling not rebuilding. Our 40 man roster dilemma wouldn't handle the flood of incoming prospects coming from trading off core players

[Trov]

I fully agree that if you can get anything of value in return for him I would jump at it.  We have replacements and he seems to be aging quickly.  His legs are not holding up and I think the last 2 years of the deal will not look good.  Dump him and move on.  I like the signing when they did it, but the legs just did not hold up and I think he is going to fall off a cliff.