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Do the Twins Have a Self-Scouting Issue?


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LaMonte Wade, Akil Baddoo, and Nick Anderson have all gone on to find success with other organizations. Teams need to be strong when it comes to scouting, so do the Twins have an issue when it comes to scouting their own talent?

There’s no question that successful organizations need to have a strong scouting department. It is the job of this group to find talent at any level and decide if those players are a good fit for an organization. One undervalued scouting skill might be the ability of an organization to evaluate their own talent and decide which pieces are most critical for an organization’s long-term success.

Unfortunately, these three players have all found success with other organizations without getting a long look at the big-league level by the Twins.

Akil Baddoo, Detroit Tigers

Minnesota drafted Baddoo in the second round back in 2016 and he played his first four professional seasons in the organization. Back in 2019, he topped out at High-A where he hit .214/.290/.393 in 29 games. Entering the 2021 season, he didn’t have an at-bat at the Double-A level and the lost 2020 season certainly took away some development time, so the Twins left him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft. Now, it’s looking like the Twins might have given up on him too soon.

Detroit is in rebuild mode so they can afford to take some chances in the Rule 5 Draft, and they were willing to give Baddoo a shot at the big-league level. His hot start to the season was well documented as he had a 1.024 OPS through his first 15 games. He may not be getting the hype he was at season’s start, but he entered play on Monday with a 142 OPS+ while leading the American League in triples. Minnesota had a lot of minor league outfield depth, but Baddoo is looking more like he can be a contributor for years to come.  

LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants

Wade was a ninth-round pick by the Twins in the 2015 MLB Draft and the Twins had used him throughout parts of the 2019 and 2020 season. In those two years, he compiled an 87 OPS+ in 42 games and he looked to have a shot at making the 2021 Twins. The decision came down to picking Wade or Jake Cave as the team’s fourth outfielder. Minnesota was able to trade Wade to the Giants in exchange for Shaun Anderson, who was recently claimed off waivers by the Rangers. It was a deal that couldn’t have gone more poorly for the Twins.

In his age-27 season, Wade has found a role with the Giants, the first team to 50 wins this season. Through his first 28 games, he has posted a 136 OPS+ while playing all three outfield positions and first base. Cave compiled a 43 OPS+ in 31 games this year before ending up on the 60-day injured list with a stress reaction in his lower back. Wade is finding big-league success on one of baseball’s best teams while the Twins have been forced to shuffle through a variety of outfielders.

Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays

Anderson, a Minnesota native, had to work his way into professional baseball after attending college at Mayville State University in North Dakota. The Twins signed him out of independent baseball and used him as a reliever in four different seasons as he topped out at Triple-A. In November 2018, the Twins traded him to the Miami Marlins for Brian Schales and Anderson has pitched at the big-league level ever since that deal.

Anderson was a critical piece of the Rays bullpen that drove them to the 2020 World Series. Throughout the 2019-20 seasons, he has combined for a 155 ERA+ with a 0.96 WHIP and 15 SO/9. His 2021 season hasn’t started yet as he recovers from a partial torn ligament in his right elbow. The injury didn’t require surgery and he is supposed to return for the season’s second half. This will be a welcome boost to a Rays club that is fighting for an AL East crown. He would also be a welcome addition to a Twins bullpen that has seen it’s fair share of struggles this season.

It’s great to see these players writing their own success story, but it’s too bad those achievements didn’t come in a Twins uniform. Minnesota needs to hang on to players like these that can add to their organizational depth and that process might start with looking in the mirror at their own self-scouting.

Do you think the Twins have a self-scouting issue? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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I don't think Baddoo and Wade are self-scouting errors; Baddoo did not seem like he would be taken in the Rule 5 draft due to his numbers in the minors and injury history, and there was only so much room on the 40 man. Wade was superfluous as yet another lefty who would be stretching it in CF, so with Kepler/Cave/Kirilloff/Larnach/Arraez on the team, trading him was logical, but they failed to fix the pitcher they got in return.

This FO does seem to have an issue with self-scouting their pitchers. While they could have tried out Nick Anderson, they were busy rummaging through DFA guys like Matt Belisle and  Oliver Drake. They too often try to get their older waiver wire relievers to become reliable options when they could be trying out arms in the minor league system. They also have not shown willingness to go out and acquire arms via trade very often, with Maeda as their only successful veteran acquisition via trade (Romo was more of a minor success). If we're going to go on a World Series run, we'll need a great bullpen, and that's not going to be built via scrap heap pickups. Sure, you'll find a gem every once in a while like Brandon Workman for the Red Sox, but most of the time they will need to spend in FA/trades and develop some minor league arms.

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The Twins FO doesn't need me to defend them. And I won't. But hindsight 20/20 is very easy to blame.

The Twins spent a couple roster spots on "pitching help" for the 2021 season for a team that was supposed to contend and they wanted depth. Smart!

They left Badoo off the 40 man roster,young and coming off missed time. Who honestly expected him to be drafted and kept and actually perform well? Go buy a lottery ticket if you can say yes.

I liked Wade a lot. I wanted to keep him. I thought be brought some potential and skill set the Twins were lacking. But when I had to compare a more experienced LH OF with better numbers and more experience, I had to go with Cave when the trade was made, 

Anderson I have no comment on at this time, sorry, without digging in to the ML and milb rosters 2yrs ago.

I HATED losing a low level, talented prospect like Badoo. 

I'm OK losing a 4th OF prospect.

I'm OK losing a journeyman RP, except, young enough and stats enough to tell me the FO didn't look close enough and probably protected someone not as good.

Very few teams would have protected Baddoo, we just got screwed on that one. Period!

But with a serious 40 man crunch coming forward, they are going to have to make 5-7 really tough choices. Is that a bad thing? It means the Twins have enough young talent to allow for such tough choices. Let's hope we're smart enough to make the RIGHT choices!

 

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The twins front office has made a number of mistakes on the edges of the 40 man roster (Zack Littell is another example), but I'm not sure they are worse than the majority of teams in the league. 

The mistakes that frustrate me the most are the trades of Luis Gil and Huscar Ynoa. Trading them for Jake Cave and 1 game of Jaime Garcia were blunders that are looking pretty bad today.

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1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I don't think Baddoo and Wade are self-scouting errors; Baddoo did not seem like he would be taken in the Rule 5 draft due to his numbers in the minors and injury history, and there was only so much room on the 40 man.

I think most thought he had a very good chance of being selected in the Rule 5 draft. I don't think that many thought he would stick with the other team just because he really hadn't played more than a dozen games in High-A and hadn't played in almost two years. 

The decision on Baddoo was and is absolutely defensible. They knew his talent level. 

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Thoughts on Baddoo are above. I enjoy(ed) chatting with him and all knew his talent. Still no problem with taking that risk that he wouldn't stick. 

I really, really like Wade. I like his style of player, but with Buxton and Kepler there, and Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker coming, I definitely understand trading from excess to add at a position of need. And then Jake Cave vs LaMonte Wade chat was again understandable. I liked Wade a little more, but I also think Cave was pretty good for two years as a fourth outfielder. He got overexposed earlier this year and obviously was playing hurt. 

Nick Anderson was absolutely a miss. I don't think any of us understood that move at that time. But... if we're being fair, we also would have added Jake Reed to the 40 man roster on several occasions. 

I didn't understand that Zack Littell decision as well. But we also didn't understand the decision not to bring back Matt Wisler. 

Luis Gil is exciting, but when you're in the process of trying to win, that's the type of deal that happens. You get a guy who helps you for 3-4 years in a role for a guy who, we knew threw upper-90s, but hadn't pitched above the DSL. Hard to get upset about that one. 

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5 hours ago, twins_89 said:

The twins front office has made a number of mistakes on the edges of the 40 man roster (Zack Littell is another example), but I'm not sure they are worse than the majority of teams in the league. 

The mistakes that frustrate me the most are the trades of Luis Gil and Huscar Ynoa. Trading them for Jake Cave and 1 game of Jaime Garcia were blunders that are looking pretty bad today.

 

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6 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Thoughts on Baddoo are above. I enjoy(ed) chatting with him and all knew his talent. Still no problem with taking that risk that he wouldn't stick. 

I really, really like Wade. I like his style of player, but with Buxton and Kepler there, and Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker coming, I definitely understand trading from excess to add at a position of need. And then Jake Cave vs LaMonte Wade chat was again understandable. I liked Wade a little more, but I also think Cave was pretty good for two years as a fourth outfielder. He got overexposed earlier this year and obviously was playing hurt. 

Nick Anderson was absolutely a miss. I don't think any of us understood that move at that time. But... if we're being fair, we also would have added Jake Reed to the 40 man roster on several occasions. 

I didn't understand that Zack Littell decision as well. But we also didn't understand the decision not to bring back Matt Wisler. 

Luis Gil is exciting, but when you're in the process of trying to win, that's the type of deal that happens. You get a guy who helps you for 3-4 years in a role for a guy who, we knew threw upper-90s, but hadn't pitched above the DSL. Hard to get upset about that one. 

I have to disagree regarding Luis Gil. Cave wass DFA'D by the Yankees and the Twins decided to jump the waiver wire by offering Gil for Cave. While that would be defensible if Cave worked out I'm worried about his drop-off the past couple years and the seriousness of his recent injury. I remember reading at fangraphs they were surprised the Twins chose to trade something to acquire him.

Since it was skipped it is worth mentioning that Ynoa wasn't a great find by Atlanta but pure luck. They wanted J.T. Chargois but medical stopped it so they ended up with Ynoa as a last moment replacement. Nobody was banging the table for him for Atlanta. Still a whiff on our end. 

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An alternative way of looking at the question is have the Twins gotten value for the glut of outfielders they have in their system.  The answer is clearly no. 


Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson could be added to this conversation as well although I don’t know if either would have resigned and Lynn had the worst season of his career with the Twins. 
 

The discussion on which players to protect has to be viewed in the context of whether or not a team is a contender. When not contending, Baddoo would have been kept over Cave.  Hindsight is a wonderful lens into the world. 
 

Was Baddoo available to be put on the alternative site in 2020.  That was their opportunity to evaluate Baddoo’s readiness. Aaron Whitefield was on the taxi squad. 

Celestino has been on 40 man roster for two years.  But he looks way overmatched.  What was the criteria for keeping Celestino over Baddoo.  Baddoo is a currently a slightly below average defender and maybe doesn’t profile as a true center fielder.   

 

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They have an issue.

I think they have chosen to go with veterans than trusting their own prospects. Individually the moves can all be explained. 

Cave over Wade. The assessment had to be that Cave was the better backup CF (my eyes don’t see it but analytics support it).

Celestino over Baddoo. Keeping both on the 40 man is a challenge when the spots are so valuable on a team that believes the contending window is open. Center field won out here. 

Gil and Ynoa. I think it comes down to the same thought that they would need to be on the 40 long before they would trust them to help in the major leagues. I don’t think Gil had ever even made a Seth Stoh’s prospect handbook when he had been traded.

I get that the window looks to be opening in 2017 and certainly appeared wide open in 2019-2020. The window has closed. They need to make decisions betting on the long term futures of guys like Baddoo and Gil rather the short term need of a bullpen arm or bench bat.

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I think the answer is really yes and no.  Good players get caught in a 40-man crunch or get buried on the organizational depth chart often enough that a draft was created specifically to give those guys a chance.  Sometimes it's a gamble to see who they think they can slip through and keep.  Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't.  I don't really see that instance being an issue.  That's going to happen to every team.  A 40-man roster needs to be constructed in a manner to allow flexibility.  And, in my mind, how that roster is constructed differs between that of a contender or non-contender.  Detroit can afford to take a risk and have a guy like Baddoo on the active roster, they're not a contender.  The Twins were supposed to contend, so they couldn't.  The only reason that Celestino is on the roster now is due to injuries.  I can't expect a FO to foresee that.  That's reasonable in my view.

It's the guys jettisoned for no real reason that is more concerning, and that seems to be on the pitching side of things.  Which is doubly concerning since the FO was touted as pitching gurus.  I do think that the contender/non-contender window comes into play, but that makes the Anderson and Littell moves all the more curious.

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1 hour ago, Seansy said:

I have to disagree regarding Luis Gil. Cave wass DFA'D by the Yankees and the Twins decided to jump the waiver wire by offering Gil for Cave. While that would be defensible if Cave worked out I'm worried about his drop-off the past couple years and the seriousness of his recent injury. I remember reading at fangraphs they were surprised the Twins chose to trade something to acquire him.

Since it was skipped it is worth mentioning that Ynoa wasn't a great find by Atlanta but pure luck. They wanted J.T. Chargois but medical stopped it so they ended up with Ynoa as a last moment replacement. Nobody was banging the table for him for Atlanta. Still a whiff on our end. 

The original deal with Atlanta was for Nick Burdi, but Atlanta didn't like his medicals. In our rankings, we had them something like 17th and 18th. 

When the Twins have DFAd guys and been able to make a trade, they have received similar players in return too. Some potential and a LONG way to go. 

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1 hour ago, Eris said:

f whether or not a team is a contender. When not contending, Baddoo would have been kept over Cave.  Hindsight is a wonderful lens into the world. 

Was Baddoo available to be put on the alternative site in 2020.  That was their opportunity to evaluate Baddoo’s readiness. Aaron Whitefield was on the taxi squad. 

Celestino has been on 40 man roster for two years.  But he looks way overmatched.  What was the criteria for keeping Celestino over Baddoo.  Baddoo is a currently a slightly below average defender and maybe doesn’t profile as a true center fielder.   

 

Last November, the decision was easy on Baddoo or Celestino. If the Twins had added Baddoo to the 40 man roster at that time, he would have been behind Celestino on the depth chart. He probably wouldn't have played much in spring training. He would have started this season, probably, in Cedar Rapids, but maybe in Wichita. Again, the Twins knew how good Baddoo had the potential to be. Celestino has just as much potential. And he was helpful. Of course Celestino looks overwhelmed now. He should be at Wichita, or at least St. Paul. 

Yes, Baddoo could have been at the alternate site. But he wasn't ready to play at the start of last season. He was in Ft. Myers during the 2020 spring training. Whitefield wasn't at the alternate site. He was on the Opening Day roster solely because of his speed and defense (pinch runner and late-inning defensive replacement) when the rosters were expanded at the start of the season. As soon as the rosters dropped, he was DFAd and sent home. 

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49 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Gil and Ynoa. I think it comes down to the same thought that they would need to be on the 40 long before they would trust them to help in the major leagues. I don’t think Gil had ever even made a Seth Stohs’s prospect handbook when he had been traded.

If I included DSL players in the book, Gil probably would have ranked toward the bottom of the Top 30... maybe. Again, they knew his talent. He was already in the upper 90s and touched 100. But he had like 7 levels to move up. 

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The Twins obstinately stick to their method.  If a player sticks out for being well or for being terrible, they stick with their method rather than make a change.

Imagine if Kent Hrbek or Bert Blyleven had been forced to spend the obligatory years in AAA.   Imagine if Viola had been forced to start in A (or lower) or Puckett had been forced to toil through AA.  Not all players are the same.

Look at how many years Kepler spent in the minors, in spite of dominating there.  The Twins did not call him up to the majors until they had no other option, all during years where the team was starving for outfield defense.  And once Kepler was up, the Twins dug their claws into him and gave him a long contract even though he is no superstar.  Kepler illustrates the Twins method perfectly.

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10 hours ago, Danchat said:

I don't think Baddoo and Wade are self-scouting errors; Baddoo did not seem like he would be taken in the Rule 5 draft due to his numbers in the minors and injury history, and there was only so much room on the 40 man. Wade was superfluous as yet another lefty who would be stretching it in CF, so with Kepler/Cave/Kirilloff/Larnach/Arraez on the team, trading him was logical, but they failed to fix the pitcher they got in return.

This FO does seem to have an issue with self-scouting their pitchers. While they could have tried out Nick Anderson, they were busy rummaging through DFA guys like Matt Belisle and  Oliver Drake. They too often try to get their older waiver wire relievers to become reliable options when they could be trying out arms in the minor league system. They also have not shown willingness to go out and acquire arms via trade very often, with Maeda as their only successful veteran acquisition via trade (Romo was more of a minor success). If we're going to go on a World Series run, we'll need a great bullpen, and that's not going to be built via scrap heap pickups. Sure, you'll find a gem every once in a while like Brandon Workman for the Red Sox, but most of the time they will need to spend in FA/trades and develop some minor league arms.

You are correct, in my view, in all your assessments.

But regarding major FA trades --- I don't think it is simply characteristic of this current FO....I think it is characteristic of all the Twins FOs since Calvin Griffith. But -- We shouldn't just label only the Twins this way.....unless a mid-market team is making an obvious run at a World Series....they all do these things [no major FA trades, etc...].

Tampa Bay is the only clear exception at making it work as a cheapo. Love those guys. Oakland may be the other.

Baseball has to fix its team payroll imbalance issue. 

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The only way to determine if an individual team has a self scouting issue is to compare them against what all the other teams do. I'd be shocked if you couldn't find 3 similar situations that played out with every other major league team. And, as others have already pointed out, Baddoo not being protected doesn't automatically equal them missing on their assessment of him, it was a 40 man roster problem. Cave over Wade doesn't even necessarily mean the Twins valued Cave drastically, or even at all, over Wade. It could mean the Giants wanted Wade and not Cave. The Twins very well could have preferred Wade, but the Giants insisted on Wade and the Twins didn't see that big of a difference and really needed bullpen arms so gave up Wade. 

To claim the Twins have a self scouting problem it'd take a whole lot of research on every roster move of every front office in baseball. Simply picking out 3 players where things didn't go well and using them as your data pool isn't showing any real information beyond those 3 decisions not turning out well for the Twins.

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3 hours ago, Eris said:

An alternative way of looking at the question is have the Twins gotten value for the glut of outfielders they have in their system.  The answer is clearly no. 


Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson could be added to this conversation as well although I don’t know if either would have resigned and Lynn had the worst season of his career with the Twins. 
 

The discussion on which players to protect has to be viewed in the context of whether or not a team is a contender. When not contending, Baddoo would have been kept over Cave.  Hindsight is a wonderful lens into the world. 
 

Was Baddoo available to be put on the alternative site in 2020.  That was their opportunity to evaluate Baddoo’s readiness. Aaron Whitefield was on the taxi squad. 

Celestino has been on 40 man roster for two years.  But he looks way overmatched.  What was the criteria for keeping Celestino over Baddoo.  Baddoo is a currently a slightly below average defender and maybe doesn’t profile as a true center fielder.   

 

I think right now, as much as I still like Celestino’s future, that Whitefield’s speed and bat would better serve the Twins now. At least they should try it but have apparently decided not to.

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2 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I think right now, as much as I still like Celestino’s future, that Whitefield’s speed and bat would better serve the Twins now. At least they should try it but have apparently decided not to.

Whitefield isn't on the 40 man. By my count there isn't an opening there (43 guys on it with 3 on 60 day IL). So to call him up they'd have to take someone off. Not sure he's worth losing someone at this point with the way injuries have shredded the roster (and to be fair most 40 mans are full of IL guys right now). I think he may be a guy who gets another taste in August or September after they open up some 40 man spots with trades.

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I think we're suffering from some recency bias here, and also dismissing some of the circumstances that have amplified the departures of these players.

Baddoo was a Rule 5 gamble due to his injury history and the fact he had never played above High-A. The Twins most likely were never going to call him up to the majors this year unless he put together some dominant numbers on the farm, and even then, he was buried on the depth chart. 

Wade was the 5th or 6th outfielder on the 40-man roster, and his lefthanded bat was superfluous with Kepler, Cave, Larnach, and Kirilloff ahead of him or likely to pass him on the depth chart. His absence is being amplified because of injuries to the entire starting outfield this season. (Okay, maybe Buxton's was "predictable," but Kepler's and Cave's were less expected.) He'd absolutely be nice to have now, but he was easily an extraneous outfield piece when the trade first occurred. 

For what it's worth, I think it was Thad Levine that did admit after Anderson's rookie season that the Twins improperly evaluated him. I find that frustrating because he was so dominant in the minor leagues, yet they didn't give him a chance in the majors. 

Through Falvey's and Levine's tenure in the front office, I feel they've mainly jettisoned intriguing minor league relief pitchers (Burdi, Reed, Anderson, etc.) with varying results. I would say this is my biggest concern with their talent evaluation. 

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No MLB front office is ever going to have a perfect record with these kinds of things.

I'm open to the idea that the Twins have more misses than most, but I haven't seen any actual evidence to that effect, three examples of misses doesn't prove anything. I'm open to the idea that these were mistakes when the Twins made them, but I don't see a lot of evidence of that either. Hindsight is 20/20, were people castigating the Twins for leaving Badoo unprotected at the time? For trading Wade? 

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Let's be honest, the Twins didn't outscout or trick anyone with the Maeda deal.  Maeda's contract is what had the FO salivating. $3M a year? For how many years? His ERA could have been 5+ and he would have still been on his way here.

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Great article.  The obsession this FO has with Jake Cave is mind-boggling.   Protecting Cave over Wade was just one of the many errors that have surrounded the decision making process regarding playing time and protecting Cave.   It was clear that this was a poor decision on Day one regarding Wade.    The pitching errors are dreadful as well.   To continue to protect older AAAA relievers over younger prospects is borderline criminal.  

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2 hours ago, Five minute major said:

Great article.  The obsession this FO has with Jake Cave is mind-boggling.   Protecting Cave over Wade was just one of the many errors that have surrounded the decision making process regarding playing time and protecting Cave.   It was clear that this was a poor decision on Day one regarding Wade.    The pitching errors are dreadful as well.   To continue to protect older AAAA relievers over younger prospects is borderline criminal.  

I’m far from a Jake Cave fan, but please enlighten us how you knew last winter that Wade would be better in 2021 than him. Also, could you list the younger prospects that were cut due to keeping older AAAA relievers? I’ll wait. 
 

Fun fact: Brandon Waddell is 2 months older than Tyler Wells and Shaun Anderson is younger than him. 

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10 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

The Twins obstinately stick to their method.  If a player sticks out for being well or for being terrible, they stick with their method rather than make a change.

Imagine if Kent Hrbek or Bert Blyleven had been forced to spend the obligatory years in AAA.   Imagine if Viola had been forced to start in A (or lower) or Puckett had been forced to toil through AA.  Not all players are the same.

Look at how many years Kepler spent in the minors, in spite of dominating there.  The Twins did not call him up to the majors until they had no other option, all during years where the team was starving for outfield defense.  And once Kepler was up, the Twins dug their claws into him and gave him a long contract even though he is no superstar.  Kepler illustrates the Twins method perfectly.

Kepler came up from AA as a September call up. The next season he started in AAA in service time manipulation. He has been up ever since. That all happened under Antony and Ryan running the show. That has nothing to do with the current front office. His contract is generous, but fair for a solid player

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13 hours ago, old nurse said:

Kepler came up from AA as a September call up. The next season he started in AAA in service time manipulation. He has been up ever since. That all happened under Antony and Ryan running the show. That has nothing to do with the current front office. His contract is generous, but fair for a solid player

Yes, he was under the old regime.  Yet his story is still what we see with this new group.

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