It’s Time to Pay Byron Buxton

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

Worth noting....the frequency of 5+ year deals has dramatically tailed off in recent years.  Only the most elite players with few risks are getting contracts like that.  I feel like a lot of these projections are ignoring a significant change in trends.

Aaron Hicks was a much healthier player than Buck and that deal looks terrible now.  Plus it has zero chance of being signed in today's market.

I think he's going to want 4/100.....as a guarantee, and the ability to sign another deal.....maybe as low as 3/70......but that is a total guess.....compare him to Donaldson.....

If he played half a year at 1/4th this year's pace, he'd put up 4 fWAR.....what is that worth? If you play a guy like Kepler the other half, and he puts up 1-2 as your CF? I'd guess a lot....

But, sure I could be wrong.....I freely admit that.

[TheLeviathan]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think he's going to want 4/100.....as a guarantee, and the ability to sign another deal.....maybe as low as 3/70......but that is a total guess.....compare him to Donaldson.....

If he played half a year at 1/4th this year's pace, he'd put up 4 fWAR.....what is that worth? If you play a guy like Kepler the other half, and he puts up 1-2 as your CF? I'd guess a lot....

But, sure I could be wrong.....I freely admit that.

Yeah we are all guessing.  Hell....maybe he gets 6/180 if the next year and a half is healthy and amazing.

But I think 3/70 is a more likely number given the significant risks and the trends league wide.  Go ahead and pull up contract trackers over the last 5 years.  Contracts over 4 years simply arent happening as much, much less with this level of risk.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yeah we are all guessing.  Hell....maybe he gets 6/180 if the next year and a half is healthy and amazing.

But I think 3/70 is a more likely number given the significant risks and the trends league wide.  Go ahead and pull up contract trackers over the last 5 years.  Contracts over 4 years simply arent happening as much, much less with this level of risk.

Not everyone here will admit they might be wrong....I was just making sure no one thought I was some kind of MLB contract expert....

[bean5302]

We're definitely all guessing. We don't know what the Twins have offered, and we don't know what Buxton has demanded. After all, Minnesota locked in Max Kepler for 5 years $35 million with a $10 million 6th year option. If the Twins were trying to dangle something like 6 years and $45 million in front of Buxton, it would be obvious why he'd be uninterested. Beyond that, nobody knows how other teams might value Buxton. Then there is the concern, for both sides, on what the 2022+ CBA might look like. Just too many moving parts so all we can do is speculate on what the market will bear.

[howeda7]

6 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

The Twins can’t give a guy with Burton’s lack of durability more than 4 years and not more than $18 Million a year. However, 4 years/$72 million is a fair deal for both sides. 

The Twins should also consider a trade before the deadline. 

You know what you're buying at this point. 5/$100 is a fair starting point with incentives for reaching 350, 400, 450 etc. plate appearances.

They can't trade him now. He won't even be back before the deadline.

[howeda7]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

We're definitely all guessing. We don't know what the Twins have offered, and we don't know what Buxton has demanded. After all, Minnesota locked in Max Kepler for 5 years $35 million with a $10 million 6th year option. If the Twins were trying to dangle something like 6 years and $45 million in front of Buxton, it would be obvious why he'd be uninterested. Beyond that, nobody knows how other teams might value Buxton. Then there is the concern, for both sides, on what the 2022+ CBA might look like. Just too many moving parts so all we can do is speculate on what the market will bear.

According to Doogie, what they've offered up to now had "multiple team options". I'm guessing they were trying to hedge with a 3 year extension and multiple one year options or something like that. It's not shocking Buxton's team turned that down cold.

They can afford to give both Berrios and Buxton ~5/$100. The 2023 payroll might get a bit over-budget if Donaldson is still around, but 2024 and beyond would not be an issue.

[jkcarew]

$25M+ AAV, 6+ years? If a large market team is going to pay Buxton anything at all like a ‘superstar’ based on...what, 300-400 recent PA in a 7-year career where he’s accomplished almost nothing....then, he’s gone. The Twins can’t afford to take that gamble, and they’d be stupid to do so. Almost never plays more than half a year, just got his career OPS+ to 100...and will never be as good defensively as he was yesterday, especially now that we’re into a new era of Buxton injuries that impact his running.

Don’t get me wrong, I get why someone would take that gamble, and probably will...but I pray it’s not the Twins. And I don’t think it will be.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, howeda7 said:

...I'm guessing...

Yep, that part right there. In regard to whether or not 5/100 would get Buxton signed, I'm not sure.

I know if I was making the call, I'd be very leary of going more than 3 years $65 million on Buxton because I don't believe he'll be healthy, I think the injuries will begin to add up and cost him that one step and his production will be reduced a lot as a result. I would fully expect that would not get Buxton signed right now which is why I'd be looking to trade him this year. Legitimately trying to move Buxton would also give me a good idea of how other teams value him which could be a big help negotiating an extension if I change my mind.

Just my perspective. Luckily for me, I'm not on the hot seat to make the decisions, haha.

[DocBauer]

Lots of great points and perspectives here. I am deliberately staying away from the service time debate a couple years ago, despite my own thoughts, as I really don't think it is a factor.

What IS a factor is the injuries and the loss of availability in his career. And it can't be ignored by the Twins OR Buxton. He and his representation are fully aware of injuries and missed time. And while it's possible Byron and his reps could posture and speculate what he's worth when healthy and all the numbers he produces when in the lineup and want to "bet" on future health, they also understand reality. You can bet on that even if they won't want to admit it. 

Levi is also correct to point out that with few exceptions, the 5+ year signings have disappeared. And teams may drool over the potential of Buxton and dream of having him in their lineup and WANT to bank on his being healthy going forward, but they also understand the reality and potential gamble.

None of this is to demean Byron's ability, talent impact or potential impact. I'm just talking reality that can't be ignored by either side. While virtually impossible to accurately do, you almost have to try and look at this from Buxton's perspective. At some point, being one of the very best prospects in all of baseball,  hard working and convinced of his talent and future he probably dreamed of making over $200M in his career. 

But life slaps you upside the head at times and you deal with multiple injuries, ONE season so far when you've played more than 92 games, a shift in the market, plus covid having at least some additional financial impact on the game, and you're 27yo and a father and you want security and as much $ as you can despite everything that has happened and changed. 

So the Twinsm in theory, offer you something like 5yrs and $100M guaranteed with incentives that could be as much as an additional $5M per year. Do you turn that down? Betting on yourself is one thing, but turning down $100M plus guaranteed has to be tantalizing to say the least. If you ARE wanting to bet on yourself then you see that extra $25M just sitting there for you and you would be coming off your age 32 season with the ability to sign another deal as a corner OF, probably, who might even DH at some point. 

If he wants to bet on himself to the degree where he thinks someone would offer him 5yrs at a guaranteed $150M, I think the Twins may have to pass. There is just too much risk to invest in. 

But if Buck looks at his past and his future with an honest and realistic eye, if he believes in himself, if he enjoys playing in Target Field, if he enjoys being a Twin and the past two seasons and what still looks like a good future, he would have be looking at a potential $125M GUARANTEED with future earnings available. He seems like a good guy and a smart guy. I could absolutely see him accepting a deal like that. Life changing money for his entire family he can bank on.

I could be WAY OFF! But I don't think this kind of offer is something he would just dismiss.

Now, I'm also on board with Berrios for a 5yr $90-100M extension as well, but that's a different topic.

[howeda7]

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

4Yep, that part right there. In regard to whether or not 5/100 would get Buxton signed, I'm not sure.

I know if I was making the call, I'd be very leary of going more than 3 years $65 million on Buxton because I don't believe he'll be healthy, I think the injuries will begin to add up and cost him that one step and his production will be reduced a lot as a result. I would fully expect that would not get Buxton signed right now which is why I'd be looking to trade him this year. Legitimately trying to move Buxton would also give me a good idea of how other teams value him which could be a big help negotiating an extension if I change my mind.

Just my perspective. Luckily for me, I'm not on the hot seat to make the decisions, haha.

I can't see him signing for less than 4 or 5 years. And trading won't bring the great haul everyone hopes for. After 2023 they have no one to spend big $ on. 

[howeda7]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What incentive does Buxton have to sign a 5/100 deal? If he signs that deal it's because he's given into the idea that he'll be hurt every year of his career. If I'm his agent I'm telling him the Twins can pay you 200+ now or we go year to year to establish health and superstardom then sign a mega deal. I can't imagine Buxton believes he'll suffer fastball to the head concussions every year, or fastball to the hand broken bones every year (for goodness sake quit lunging at first trying to beat out every groundball and save your hip from being jammed into the socket 5 times a week). Maybe you can talk him into a 2 year deal at 30 mil? But why would he give up his prime years for 100m instead of playing out next season with the faith that he can stay healthy, win an MVP and get 10 years $300m?

Because even if he comes back in August and stay healthy for a full season, he's not getting and 8 or 10 year contract. Stop it. 5/100 is likely fair or slightly above what he would get in FA. Especially if it's bumped to $125 with incentives. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, howeda7 said:

I can't see him signing for less than 4 or 5 years. And trading won't bring the great haul everyone hopes for. After 2023 they have no one to spend big $ on. 

What if he's not getting anything close to that kind of term?  Teams have shifted to being willing to pay higher AAV at the expense of term because they've started to realize large, short contracts are less likely to become franchise-killers.

I could see someone giving Buxton a healthy "make good" contract with a shocking AAV.  What I can't see is anyone want to budge on keeping the term incredibly short because of the enormous risk he carries.

[Vanimal46]

We’ve transitioned the conversation to what he commands on the open market, yeah? Who knows what will happen in 1.5 years. If you do, can you confirm or deny Dogecoin went to the moon?

If we’re still talking about paying him now, then the Twins have to take that chance and guarantee the terms of the contract. If Doogie Wolfson’s report is accurate and the last offer contained multiple team option years. Plenty of negotiating tools at our disposal. Mutual/player options instead of team, player opt outs, backloading/front loading contracts, etc. 

If Buxton’s agent isn’t coming back to the table, then it’s impossible to negotiate without a deal he can’t refuse. 

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, howeda7 said:

I can't see him signing for less than 4 or 5 years. And trading won't bring the great haul everyone hopes for. After 2023 they have no one to spend big $ on. 

There won't be any free agents after 2023?  You are failing to see the option of collecting the trade value now and spending the money on a different free agent.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Because even if he comes back in August and stay healthy for a full season, he's not getting and 8 or 10 year contract. Stop it. 5/100 is likely fair or slightly above what he would get in FA. Especially if it's bumped to $125 with incentives. 

What he is going to get matters less than what he thinks he is going to get.  We can make reasonable offers until the cows come home.  It does not matter if he has an unreasonable expectation.  This scenario is about as ripe as it gets for a player having an unrealistic expectation via ignoring the injury concern and believing 6 weeks of play is now the measure by which he should be paid.  To keep hammering the same old argument of why don't we offer him X is futile if he wants X plus 50%.

[TheLeviathan]

7 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

We’ve transitioned the conversation to what he commands on the open market, yeah? Who knows what will happen in 1.5 years. If you do, can you confirm or deny Dogecoin went to the moon?

If we’re still talking about paying him now, then the Twins have to take that chance and guarantee the terms of the contract. If Doogie Wolfson’s report is accurate and the last offer contained multiple team option years. Plenty of negotiating tools at our disposal. Mutual/player options instead of team, player opt outs, backloading/front loading contracts, etc. 

If Buxton’s agent isn’t coming back to the table, then it’s impossible to negotiate without a deal he can’t refuse. 

The open market should inform any action you take.  Otherwise you are bidding against yourself/your own desperation/player's delusion.  If that's the case I don't see why you would entertain the idea at all.

[jorgenswest]

While I have no trouble finding a “might be” from Reusse i have a hard time finding words from Buxton that indicate he doesn’t want to be here. This is from 2018 after they did not call him up in September.

Quote

Yes. I ain't sugarcoating nothing," Buxton told reporters while in the Twin Cities visiting a children's hospital. "It kind of didn't go over well."

He added: "I wouldn't say we're on the same page, but I ain't going to cause [trouble] between us. I want to be here. This is where I started my career, [and] this is where I want to finish my career, for my teammates, my brothers."

I will take those words as stated without trying to read into them my own biases. 

Buxton has been fantastic since. There has always been an offer that exists where he would have signed an extension. The Twins haven’t been willing to make that offer instead hoping for something team friendly. The same goes for Berrios. Both are betting on themselves and I think both will win that bet.

I would pay for both with 2023-2025 in mind while accepting the reality that the current window has closed and won’t reopen again until the Twins develop their own starting pitching. The two will be the foundation of the next window.

 

 

[flpmagikat]

21 hours ago, wsnydes said:

But he, and his agent, knows that every major market team will likely be after his services and will be willing to pay him $25+M for 4 or 5 years (if not more), not two.  The AAV will need to be quite a bit higher to make that enticing.  Even at 5 years, he'd be a FA again at 32 and can still sign another bigger contract like Donaldson did.  

And if he does continue to be hurt all of the time, a longer deal still guarantees that he's making that cash.  A short term deal doesn't afford that.

Cool. They probably will have that option. It's not worth it for a part time player. I mean, yeah its all crazy money to us, but $30 million a year to a guy who might play 80 games is stupid. Great if his agent and part of the world can make the case that the WAR justifies it, dudes worked hard and been through enough. 

 

Still a worse bet than resigning Cruz for a 40 whatever year old season. 

[bean5302]

I'm actually kind of surprised the Buxton service time issue is garnering so much speculation. In my opinion, it doesn't matter in the slightest here. Buxton has already signed multiple contracts after the service time issue and it's clear he wasn't treated any differently than a dozen high profile players across the league. It's how baseball works right now and grievences against service time manipulation have been unsuccessful. Assuming the Twins felt like they should have or were going to apologize to Buxton with money, they've already done so in recent contracts to avoid arbitration.

Based on how the league has been run recently, I'd be really surprised if Buxton was still hung up on it or expected to be further compensated because of the service time issue.

[insagt1]

I well remember the season when Twins left Buxton in Rochester. We were surprised and he was VERY vocal about it. His recent comment about Rocco not playing him didn't exactly sound like he is happy in Minnesota.  Personally I believe he will be happy to leave and Twins will be extremely fortunate if they could retain him. Sad situation because b I too think we need to keep him. I doubt it's possible

[D.C Twins]

Buck does not want to stay here. Not only was he pissed about service time manipulation, he was also fed up with his hitting 'instruction' from the club.

Remember when he was asked last year about his hitting improvement and he answered that he stopped listening to team instruction and just went with his own ideas?!  Does that sound like someone who has bought into the organization or was perhaps frustrated with mixed messages/hitting strategy?!

Given our hitting coaches currently, do you blame him?

I hate to break it to everyone (again) but he is GONE....the only question now is what we choose to get for him (or just stick our heads in the sand and eventually lose him for nothing

[TopGunn#22]

My first thought is that it doesn't matter what the Yankees paid Hicks. The Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox etc.. can throw all the money they want around, but it doesn't mean they are "intelligent" decisions.  it just means they can absorb more STUPID payroll commitments than most teams.  My second thought is that HECK, if the Yankees want to pay him $200-$300 he's gone no matter what we try to do.

Anyway, what if the Twins offered 4-years $72-$80 million to Buxton with a player option after two years ??  The Twins understandably need "some" protection and Buxton deserves a healthy raise.  If Buxton kills it in 2022 & 2023 the Twins would need to decide if $30 million a year going forward is doable (if he kills it, they better make it doable).  Buxton gets $20 million guaranteed per year for 2 years and has a chance to build his value even higher.  Fact is, he's a generational talent,  that for a myriad of reasons just can't stay on the field.  Durability has VALUE.  I really WANT to see Buxton stay here.  I think he should be paid...to a point (but not paid purely on potential until he can put 2 years of healthy baseball together).  I think this is a prudent and reasonable approach for BOTH Buxton and the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

22 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yeah we are all guessing.  Hell....maybe he gets 6/180 if the next year and a half is healthy and amazing.

But I think 3/70 is a more likely number given the significant risks and the trends league wide.  Go ahead and pull up contract trackers over the last 5 years.  Contracts over 4 years simply arent happening as much, much less with this level of risk.

It's tricky to draw specific conclusions from the FA market, because the sample of top FA is so small to begin with. A general conservative trend is likely happening, but it could be having a greater affect on guys like Pablo Sandoval and Mike Leake. I'm not sure there are a lot of dynamic Buxton comparables that have hit the market lately.

Also, general 3/70 offers may not be that different from a 5/100 winning bid after we account for the remaining arb season (~$8 mil) and the likelihood that an extra year might be required to actually win the bidding. For example, MLBTR predicted 3/75 for Donaldson but it took 4/92 to get him to sign here -- and I think ATL and WAS may have been the only other serious bidders.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hicks was an extension with NYY, so it included his last year at $6 mil in arbitration. Buxton is already at $5.13 mil in his 2nd to last arb season, when Hicks was still at $2.825 mil, to give you an idea of their relative values.

Hicks was a year older than Buxton too -- his first FA season would have been at age 30, while Buxton will only be 29. And of course it was padded to 7 years to even out the luxury tax burden on NYY, which Hicks was more willing to do because of his age.

[wsnydes]

4 hours ago, flpmagikat said:

Cool. They probably will have that option. It's not worth it for a part time player. I mean, yeah its all crazy money to us, but $30 million a year to a guy who might play 80 games is stupid. Great if his agent and part of the world can make the case that the WAR justifies it, dudes worked hard and been through enough. 

 

Still a worse bet than resigning Cruz for a 40 whatever year old season. 

I'm not saying that I want them to do that or that I think they will, rather that there will be a team that will.  So, if I'm Buxton, 2/$50m is a nonstarter because I know I can get that much for a longer term elsewhere.  I agree completely that it isn't worth the risk if you're the Twins.  But if you're the Yankees, it's not nearly as big of a deal.  And I'd be perfectly happy if they want to take that risk.

Edited June 26, 2021 by wsnydes
Cleaned up for clarity of point.

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

My first thought is that it doesn't matter what the Yankees paid Hicks. The Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox etc.. can throw all the money they want around, but it doesn't mean they are "intelligent" decisions.  it just means they can absorb more STUPID payroll commitments than most teams.  My second thought is that HECK, if the Yankees want to pay him $200-$300 he's gone no matter what we try to do.

Anyway, what if the Twins offered 4-years $72-$80 million to Buxton with a player option after two years ??  The Twins understandably need "some" protection and Buxton deserves a healthy raise.  If Buxton kills it in 2022 & 2023 the Twins would need to decide if $30 million a year going forward is doable (if he kills it, they better make it doable).  Buxton gets $20 million guaranteed per year for 2 years and has a chance to build his value even higher.  Fact is, he's a generational talent,  that for a myriad of reasons just can't stay on the field.  Durability has VALUE.  I really WANT to see Buxton stay here.  I think he should be paid...to a point (but not paid purely on potential until he can put 2 years of healthy baseball together).  I think this is a prudent and reasonable approach for BOTH Buxton and the Twins.

It not only matters what the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc can throw at Buxton it's exactly why all this conversation about offering Buxton $100M or less is absolutely fruitless.  Do you think he cares if it's a smart decision for the team?  Horrible deals like Jacoby Elsbury are simply not nearly as devastating to big market teams so they have been willing to take the risk.  They can have 3 of those deals and have the Twins budget left over.

It's more likely IMO that Buxton and his agent are sure the free agency process will yield a stupid high offer.  Why agree to sign for anything less than stupid money right now?  This discussion is all based on the hope he recognizes he has often been hurt and/or he has not been nearly this good prior to last 6 weeks.  Who here believes his agent is basing the ask on the fact that he is out a lot or that this performance level is a very small portion of his history?  The discussion of what is reasonable or what should be offered is fine as an academic exercise but he is not accepting a reasonable offer, IMO. 

So, the more pertinent question is do you let him walk for a compensation pick or whatever the new CBA provides.  We can also discuss what level of trade compensation we should take as opposed to just letting him go.  However, a discussion of what's reasonable in terms of an extension is probably academic at this point.

[TheLeviathan]

20 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

It's tricky to draw specific conclusions from the FA market, because the sample of top FA is so small to begin with. A general conservative trend is likely happening, but it could be having a greater affect on guys like Pablo Sandoval and Mike Leake. I'm not sure there are a lot of dynamic Buxton comparables that have hit the market lately.

Also, general 3/70 offers may not be that different from a 5/100 winning bid after we account for the remaining arb season (~$8 mil) and the likelihood that an extra year might be required to actually win the bidding. For example, MLBTR predicted 3/75 for Donaldson but it took 4/92 to get him to sign here -- and I think ATL and WAS may have been the only other serious bidders.

I agree we can't draw specific conclusions and in general I agree with your analysis.  But I think the most comparable player to Buxton is Josh Donaldson, except that Buxton has even larger red flags in his profile than Donaldson.  There are a couple other factors involved on both sides (Donaldson with a much more established track record of production, Buxton younger, etc.) but I have a really, really hard time believing any GM looking to keep his job is going to give 5 years of term, with no conditions, to a player so incapable of staying on the field.  

I think it's highly likely he has to accept the shorter "make good" deals unless he comes back from this most recent injury and is an ironman until FA next year.  Then all bets are off.

[MABB1959]

I am going to go with the he doesn't want to be here and will get through the next year and wait it out.  I would want to go to a contending team and the Twins will never be that.  What fun is 162 games and then you are done, same goes for Berrios.  They don't seem like players who are all about the money.  

[Vanimal46]

31 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I am going to go with the he doesn't want to be here and will get through the next year and wait it out.  I would want to go to a contending team and the Twins will never be that.  What fun is 162 games and then you are done, same goes for Berrios.  They don't seem like players who are all about the money.  

I’ve never been in this position myself, but I would assume lots of different factors come into play when you’re offered 9 figure contracts. Does Buxton or Berrios have significant others from Minnesota? If not, let’s get on it! That convinced Parise to sign with the Wild ?

Let’s learn from past lessons pursuing Bumgarner and buy them both a ranch and racing horses. 

[insagt1]

Twins won a division last year (fewer games...but they still won) They are struggling this year with basically the same players, give or take. One might even argue that on paper, we may be better than last year. Just that so many are having miserable seasons all at once.

So Buxton wanting to play on a winner could still happen here. However, I don't think he has any warm feelings for this organization. The 'history' and the comments have not been particularly favorable. So any offer the Twins make may not matter. I'd like him to stay but it seems so very unlikely.