2013 Fantasy baseball rankings

[biggentleben]

Something I'd done on BYTO in the past that created some good commenting back and forth was annual fantasy rankings and a review at the end of the season as to how those rankings panned out. I've already posted them on another site, and I'm curious of the interest here. To save board space, I'd post them all in this thread with a new one each day.

[biggentleben]

With not anyone screaming "No!!!" or clamoring, either, I'll simply post my rankings without commentary, and feel free to comment/question/criticize to your heart's content!

[biggentleben]

Catcher

1. Buster Posey

2. Joe Mauer

3. Miguel Montero

4. Victor Martinez

5. Yadi Molina

6. Brian McCann

7. Carlos Santana

8. Matt Wieters

9. Salvador Perez

10. AJ Pierzynski

 

First Base

1. Prince Fielder

2. Albert Pujols

3. Joey Votto

4. Adrian Gonzalez

5. Edwin Encarnacion

6. Freddie Freeman

7. Billy Butler

8. Allen Craig

9. Paul Konerko

10. Mark Trumbo

 

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano

2. Ian Kinsler

3. Dustin Pedroia

4. Brandon Phillips

5. Ben Zobrist

6. Jason Kipnis

7. Rickie Weeks

8. Chase Utley

9. Aaron Hill

10. Jose Altuve

 

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Adrian Beltre

3. David Wright

4. Evan Longoria

5. Brett Lawrie

6. Chase Headley

7. Ryan Zimmerman

8. Pablo Sandoval

9. Aramis Ramirez

10. Martin Prado

 

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki

2. Jose Reyes

3. Hanley Ramirez

4. Starlin Castro

5. Asdrubel Cabrera

6. Elvis Andrus

7. Jimmy Rollins

8. Derek Jeter

9. Alexei Ramirez

10. Ian Desmond

 

Outfield

1. Ryan Braun

2. Mike Trout

3. Matt Kemp

4. Andrew McCutchen

5. Giancarlo Stanton

6. Carlos Gonzalez

7. Josh Hamilton

8. Matt Holliday

9. Jose Bautista

10. Jason Heyward

11. Justin Upton

12. Bryce Harper

13. Yoenis Cespedes

14. Adam Jones

15. Carlos Beltran

16. Jay Bruce

17. BJ Upton

18. Jacoby Ellsbury

19. Shin-Soo Choo

20. Austin Jackson

 

Starting Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander

2. Clayton Kershaw

3. Felix Hernandez

4. David Price

5. Jered Weaver

6. Cliff Lee

7. Stephen Strasburg

8. Cole Hamels

9. Adam Wainwright

10. RA Dickey

11. Zack Greinke

12. Matt Cain

13. Chris Sale

14. Gio Gonzalez

15. Jordan Zimmerman

16. Madison Bumgarner

17. James Shields

18. Roy Halladay

19. Josh Johnson

20. Yovani Gallardo

 

Relief Pitchers

1. Craig Kimbrel

1.5* Aroldis Chapman

2. Jason Motte

3. Jon Papelbon

4. JJ Putz

5. Mariano Rivera

6. Sergio Romo

7. Huston Street

8. Joel Hanrahan

9. John Axford

10. Brandon League

* If moved back to closer

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, you said criticism welcome, so I have a couple.

Paul Goldschmidt doesnt even crack your top 10 first baseman?

Strasburg #7 starting pitcher?

The dude is #1 if the innings limits are off, and even if they limit him to 210 or so he should be #3 at worst.

[kab21]

Dickey is not in my top 20 SP'ers. the K rate was a fluke and I do not trust him. Darvish has to at least be ranked. I think we'll see some improvements in your list of negatives that's coming. I'm also avoiding Jered Weaver that high. His K rate is dropping like a rock.

 

I'm a little more skeptical of goldy than most but he should be in the Freeman to Craig tier. Same goes for Rizzo. I'm okay with moving Konerko and trumbo out of the top 10.

 

Drafting strategy this year:

Wait until the mid rounds for a catcher.

Get a 2nd baseman early because it gets really ugly fast

Get a 3Bman in the top 7-8 rds. Several good ones are available but it drops off quite a bit at that point.

[biggentleben]

  kab21 said:

Dickey is not in my top 20 SP'ers. the K rate was a fluke and I do not trust him. Darvish has to at least be ranked. I think we'll see some improvements in your list of negatives that's coming. I'm also avoiding Jered Weaver that high. His K rate is dropping like a rock.

 

I'm a little more skeptical of goldy than most but he should be in the Freeman to Craig tier. Same goes for Rizzo. I'm okay with moving Konerko and trumbo out of the top 10.

 

Drafting strategy this year:

Wait until the mid rounds for a catcher.

Get a 2nd baseman early because it gets really ugly fast

Get a 3Bman in the top 7-8 rds. Several good ones are available but it drops off quite a bit at that point.

 

I completely missed Darvish. I didn't copy it straight, so somehow I missed him. He's top 10 for me. I agree on Goldy, but there's a group of about 7 1B, and he's in it. He and Rizzo would be my 11-12.

[biggentleben]

  Mr. Brooks said:

Well, you said criticism welcome, so I have a couple.

Paul Goldschmidt doesnt even crack your top 10 first baseman?

Strasburg #7 starting pitcher?

The dude is #1 if the innings limits are off, and even if they limit him to 210 or so he should be #3 at worst.

 

I'm not touching Strasburg at the price I have to pay/draft him this year for a one year league. I can see #3 at best, but there's plenty of injury risk. Same reason Sale is lower for me than most.

 

Goldschmidt is in a group of 7-10 guys who are pretty much interchangeable. I'd have him #11.

[biggentleben]

  kab21 said:

Drafting strategy this year:

Wait until the mid rounds for a catcher.

Get a 2nd baseman early because it gets really ugly fast

Get a 3Bman in the top 7-8 rds. Several good ones are available but it drops off quite a bit at that point.

 

I can agree with this, but I think 3B is very deep personally, at least with guys who give SOME value, in comparison to 1B where I think after about 14, it's UGLY. Guys like Mike Moustakas or Manny Machado could easily be top 5-7 3B next year and aren't top 10 this year, for instance.

[Mr. Brooks]

  biggentleben said:

I'm not touching Strasburg at the price I have to pay/draft him this year for a one year league. I can see #3 at best, but there's plenty of injury risk. Same reason Sale is lower for me than most.

 

Goldschmidt is in a group of 7-10 guys who are pretty much interchangeable. I'd have him #11.

 

Well, luckily for me there are people who must agree with you in my drafts.

I've been getting Stras late 2nd/early 3rd round.

We'll have to reconvene here at the end of the year when he's making a legit push at 300K's and is the top ranked SP in roto.

[biggentleben]

  Mr. Brooks said:

Well, luckily for me there are people who must agree with you in my drafts.

I've been getting Stras late 2nd/early 3rd round.

We'll have to reconvene here at the end of the year when he's making a legit push at 300K's and is the top ranked SP in roto.

 

Those from BYTO days will confirm that I am more than willing to come back to my projections and eat crow where I should. That said, I never said Stras couldn't do that, but when guys like Felix and David Price are in the same area, I simply cannot take him with the worries I have about how he holds up.

[Mr. Brooks]

No, thats not how I meant it ben.

Just saying I'm glad people feel that way, because then I get him in my drafts.

I find it interesting that you dont have the same concerns with King Felix though, what with the elbow issues he's been having.

As for Price, he's my pick to win AL Cy Young, so far be it for me to knock him in any way. Its just that when I'm drafting for fantasy I'm going upside whenever its close.

I could see Stras easily putting up similar rate numbers as all the rest of the top pitchers, while completely blowing them out of the water in K's, which means I can round out my staff in the later rounds with the low K, groundball machines that tend to be undervalued, if I so choose.

[biggentleben]

  Mr. Brooks said:

No, thats not how I meant it ben.

Just saying I'm glad people feel that way, because then I get him in my drafts.

I find it interesting that you dont have the same concerns with King Felix though, what with the elbow issues he's been having.

As for Price, he's my pick to win AL Cy Young, so far be it for me to knock him in any way. Its just that when I'm drafting for fantasy I'm going upside whenever its close.

I could see Stras easily putting up similar rate numbers as all the rest of the top pitchers, while completely blowing them out of the water in K's, which means I can round out my staff in the later rounds with the low K, groundball machines that tend to be undervalued, if I so choose.

 

Any pitcher can have injury issues, but the greatest predictor of missing time due to arm injury is previous arm injury. Felix had comments made at the time of his new contract, but no reported discomfort this spring, and it came out that there was no structural damage, it was simply worry about workload that he has had so far. That didn't get near the publicity that the "ZOMG his contract is over because his elbow is about to blow up!!" crap did. I'm enjoying people letting Felix fall to me in drafts as he's very consistent.

 

I'm not sure about rounding out a staff with groundball guys either. I tend to do flyers on guys off a bad year or young high-upside pitchers, like Josh Beckett, Mike Minor, etc.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah I take a couple of those guys as well, but banking on near 300K's from Stras lets me grab 1 or 2 for the back end that I can almost guarantee myself will have solid ERA's, but tend to fall because they don't have big K totals. I didnt mean I'm filling out the entire rest of my staff with those guys.

My typical pitching staff might be:

Stras, late 2nd, early 3rd

Sale, late 6th, early 7th

Medlan, 8th-9th

Low K/solid ERA guy who's undervalued (Fister, Miley, McCarthy, Hudson, Anderson, etc.) 11th-12th

Samardzija, 14th

Upside/bounceback candidate (Lester, Beckett, Minor, Estrada, Garcia, etc.) 15th+

 

If my bench targets are gone in the late rounds I might even pick up a Beachy to stash on the DL.

[biggentleben]

If you're getting Lester after the 15th, you're not playing with smart players.

[Mr. Brooks]

  biggentleben said:

If you're getting Lester after the 15th, you're not playing with smart players.

 

His adp is at 138.2 right now, which means he's going 2nd to last in the 14th round of a 10 team mixed.

[kab21]

  biggentleben said:

I can agree with this, but I think 3B is very deep personally, at least with guys who give SOME value, in comparison to 1B where I think after about 14, it's UGLY. Guys like Mike Moustakas or Manny Machado could easily be top 5-7 3B next year and aren't top 10 this year, for instance.

 

There a lot of interesting guys but they all have low floors. As an example I think Machado will struggle this year before becoming the player we expect. I could easily see a .260 avg with 15 HR and 10SB (or worse). Mous could easily repeat last year. I would like to get a steadier player 3Bman and take a flier on one of these upside guys as an extra hitter. I just don't feel comfortable with any of them as a starter.

[biggentleben]

  kab21 said:

There a lot of interesting guys but they all have low floors. As an example I think Machado will struggle this year before becoming the player we expect. I could easily see a .260 avg with 15 HR and 10SB (or worse). Mous could easily repeat last year. I would like to get a steadier player 3Bman and take a flier on one of these upside guys as an extra hitter. I just don't feel comfortable with any of them as a starter.

 

I'll agree with this. What I've done in leagues where I've waited on 3B is I've gone after 2-3 of those type of guys. I have one league with Pedro Alvarez, Moustakas, and Todd Frazier. I'm almost certain I'll get fantasy starter production from at least one of the three. I do get the low floor, though, which is why I bank those guys with someone behind them as well.

[biggentleben]

  Mr. Brooks said:

His adp is at 138.2 right now, which means he's going 2nd to last in the 14th round of a 10 team mixed.

 

If you're getting that from ESPN, I wouldn't trust that number. Too many autodrafts in there to make it viable. I like using the NFBC ADP's, which, of course, I don't have access to at work to look up his position there. All of those leagues are pay leagues and the players tend to be more committed.

[Mr. Brooks]

  biggentleben said:

If you're getting that from ESPN, I wouldn't trust that number. Too many autodrafts in there to make it viable. I like using the NFBC ADP's, which, of course, I don't have access to at work to look up his position there. All of those leagues are pay leagues and the players tend to be more committed.

 

He's going even later according to NFBC, at 144.47

[Fatt Crapps]

Zobrist is eligible for SS, 2B, and RF in ESPN leagues.

[Fatt Crapps]

Has Kershaw done enough for you to be considered an "ace"? Or is he not quite there yet?

[biggentleben]

  Fatt Crapps said:

Zobrist is eligible for SS, 2B, and RF in ESPN leagues.

 

I put them at the position they'd rank highest. Zobrist would be my #5 at either 2B or SS but farther down at outfield, so I put him at 2B.

[biggentleben]

  Fatt Crapps said:

Has Kershaw done enough for you to be considered an "ace"? Or is he not quite there yet?

 

Kershaw absolutely, in fantasy terms. He's the #2 pitcher in every mixed-league format, and #1 in NL-only.

[biggentleben]

  Mr. Brooks said:

He's going even later according to NFBC, at 144.47

 

That's interesting as the two mocks I did through that site, he was a 9th and 10th round pick.

[biggentleben]

So, I'm certain you've all waited with bated breath for my review of all of these:

 

Rankings in parenthesis are the actual ESPN Player Rater final rankings at the position:

 

Catcher

1. Buster Posey (7)

2. Joe Mauer (8)

3. Miguel Montero (28)

4. Victor Martinez (3)

5. Yadi Molina (1)

6. Brian McCann (14)

7. Carlos Santana (6)

8. Matt Wieters (13)

9. Salvador Perez (9)

10. AJ Pierzynski (12)

Not in my preseason top 10: 2. Wilin Rosario, 4. Jonathan Lucroy, 5. Mike Napoli, 10. Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

 

Analysis: Catcher turned into a very hit-and-miss position in fantasy this year. Everyone either had huge prolonged slumps or injury bugs that mad you have to dig down deep for players. Look for a move from Wilson Ramos next season, fully healthy and the sole owner of the catching job in Washington for 2014 (at the moment).

 

First Base

1. Prince Fielder (9)

2. Albert Pujols (35)

3. Joey Votto (7)

4. Adrian Gonzalez (10)

5. Edwin Encarnacion (4)

6. Freddie Freeman (3)

7. Billy Butler (23)

8. Allen Craig (11)

9. Paul Konerko (48)

10. Mark Trumbo (12)

Not in my preseason top 10: 1. Chris Davis, 2. Paul Goldschmidt, 5. Michael Cuddyer, 6. Matt Carpenter, 8. Eric Hosmer.

 

Analysis: Davis blew up this year as did Goldschmidt. He was my noted omission in March, though I did have my call on Freeman work out. Keep an eye on Brandon Belt next season as he finished 16th this season with some pretty rough run/RBI stats.

 

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano (1)

2. Ian Kinsler (7)

3. Dustin Pedroia (5)

4. Brandon Phillips (8)

5. Ben Zobrist (11)

6. Jason Kipnis (2)

7. Rickie Weeks (47)

8. Chase Utley (9)

9. Aaron Hill (21)

10. Jose Altuve (6)

 

Missing: 3. Matt Carpenter, 4. Daniel Murphy, 10. Jed Lowrie

 

Analysis: Carpenter became a runs beast, but this position generally played out as expected. The guy to watch in 2014 from this position is Jedd Gyorko who finished 16th in the player rater even though he missed some significant time and was taking his first cuts at 2B this season.

 

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera (1)

2. Adrian Beltre (2)

3. David Wright (7)

4. Evan Longoria (6)

5. Brett Lawrie (27)

6. Chase Headley (20)

7. Ryan Zimmerman (9)

8. Pablo Sandoval (15)

9. Aramis Ramirez (25)

10. Martin Prado (13)

 

Missing: 3. Edwin Encarnacion, 4. Matt Carpenter, 5. Josh Donaldson, 8. Hanley Ramirez, 10. Manny Machado

 

Analysis: This position is incredibly deep as the NL HR champion didn't even make the top 10. Keep your eye on Matt Dominguez, who absolutely has the glove to stay in the majors but showed surprising pop this year to finish in the top 20 of 3B.

 

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki (4)

2. Jose Reyes (12)

3. Hanley Ramirez (5)

4. Starlin Castro (24)

5. Asdrubel Cabrera (17)

6. Elvis Andrus (2)

7. Jimmy Rollins (16)

8. Derek Jeter (88)

9. Alexei Ramirez (6)

10. Ian Desmond (3)

 

Missing: 1. Jean Segura, 7. Evereth Cabrera, 9. Ben Zobrist, 10. JJ Hardy

 

Analysis: Segura was a first-half beast but faded hard in the second-half, so he's intriguing to consider for 2014. Andrelton Simmons is arguably the best defender in baseball, regardless of position, so he'll stay on the field, and he gave owners an unexpected amount of home runs this season.

 

Outfield

1. Ryan Braun (89)

2. Mike Trout (1)

3. Matt Kemp (94)

4. Andrew McCutchen (3)

5. Giancarlo Stanton (59)

6. Carlos Gonzalez (12)

7. Josh Hamilton (52)

8. Matt Holliday (13)

9. Jose Bautista (32)

10. Jason Heyward (80)

11. Justin Upton (24)

12. Bryce Harper (41)

13. Yoenis Cespedes (45)

14. Adam Jones (6)

15. Carlos Beltran (21)

16. Jay Bruce (17)

17. BJ Upton (160)

18. Jacoby Ellsbury (4)

19. Shin-Soo Choo (15)

20. Austin Jackson (48)

 

Missing: 2. Chris Davis, 5. Carlos Gomez, 7. Alex Rios, 8. Hunter Pence, 9. Jayson Werth, 10. Alfonso Soriano, 11. Michael Cuddyer, 14. Matt Carpenter, 16. Starling Marte, 18. Shane Victorino, 19. Coco Crisp, 20. Torii Hunter

 

Analysis: Holy crap was that a mixed bag! Studs, duds, explosions, colossal implosions. Keep an eye on Leonys Martin who had some young player struggles, but he brings a very nice power/speed combo to the table and reminds many of a young Carlos Gomez.

 

Starting Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (41)

2. Clayton Kershaw (1)

3. Felix Hernandez (13)

4. David Price (32)

5. Jered Weaver (49)

6. Cliff Lee (4)

7. Stephen Strasburg (18)

8. Cole Hamels (39)

9. Adam Wainwright (3)

10. RA Dickey (57)

11. Zack Greinke (14)

12. Matt Cain (64)

13. Chris Sale (11)

14. Gio Gonzalez (42)

15. Jordan Zimmermann (10)

16. Madison Bumgarner (9)

17. James Shields (25)

18. Roy Halladay (293)

19. Josh Johnson (326)

20. Yovani Gallardo (94)

 

Missing: 2. Max Scherzer, 5. Yu Darvish (an accidental preseason omission that I put around Cliff Lee), 6. Hisashi Iwakuma, 7. Jose Fernandez, 8. Matt Harvey (RIP), 12. Anibal Sanchez, 15. Aroldis Chapman (qualified in preseason here), 16. Bartolo Colon, 17. Mike Minor, 19. Mat Latos, 20. Clay Buchholz.

 

Analysis: There is simply a ton of good, young pitching. Harvey and Fernandez joining the elite doesn't even take into account Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, and Julio Teheran, who also made the top 25 as rookies (Harvey was barely over limit). Watch for Alex Cobb, who finished 35 in spite of a nasty hit to the head on a pitch and has made a tremendous return to the mound.

 

Relief Pitchers

1. Craig Kimbrel (1)

1.5* Aroldis Chapman (8)

2. Jason Motte (DNP)

3. Jon Papelbon (27)

4. JJ Putz (111)

5. Mariano Rivera (7)

6. Sergio Romo (11)

7. Huston Street (25)

8. Joel Hanrahan (352)

9. John Axford (159)

10. Brandon League (148)

* If moved back to closer

 

Missing: 2. Greg Holland, 3. Hisashi Iwakuma (qualified as RP), 4. Joe Nathan, 5. Koji Uehara, 6. Kenley Jansen, 9. Glen Perkins, 10. Jim Johnson

 

Analysis: Other than Kimbrel and Chapman, you simply don't "pay for saves". Holland had a horrid start but a great finish and Jansen in a full season of saves is easily top 5 reliever material. Watch for Steve Cishek who had a great season finishing 12th on the player rater in spite of closing for a horrible organization.

 

So there you go...my annual dose of humility. Fun to look back on!

[Fatt Crapps]

How did you leave Scherzer off? I took him in the 4th round of my draft (#43 overall)..right before Darvish. (Who also didn't crack your top 20?)

 

*Edit, looks like you admitted that was a mistake..the Darvish part at least)

 

And any league that rewards Wilin Rosario as the number 2 catcher while Santana finished 6th seems ridiculous to me.

 

Rosario stats: 466 PA, 109k/15bb, 21 hr, 79 rbi, 105 OPS+

Carlos Santana stats: 642 PA, 110k/93bb, 20 hr, 73 rbi, 137 OPS+

 

In my league (points based), Rosario finished as the #10 overall catcher. I don't understand why more people don't play in leagues where the best players finish near the top of the rankings.

[Fatt Crapps]

And yes people, don't pay for saves. The ******* who won my league had Holland, Balfour, and Chisek as his RP's...all late round selections.

[biggentleben]

Scherzer preseason was seen in that 15-30 group of starters. I had one friend say that he and Jeff Samardzija were the same pitcher, but Scherzer would get more wins on the Tigers than Samardzija would on the Cubs. Samardzija stayed that same pitcher, but Scherzer took a huge step forward in control and consistency, two things that had plagued him until 2013.

[biggentleben]

As far as Rosario vs. Santana, I took off of ESPN's player rater, which goes by traditional 5x5 stats, the most common variety of the fantasy game. In that format, Rosario got a big boost in BA, where he led Santana by .024.