Injuries Don’t Excuse How Bad This Twins Team Has Been

[Tom Froemming]

The 2021 Minnesota Twins have been one of the most disappointing teams in franchise history but it’s all due to injuries, right? While this team has had to navigate through a lot of their players being unavailable, so have most other teams in the league. Let's dig into the numbers.

The Twins haven’t been the most injured team in baseball. They’re not even in the top five. In fact, they’re barely even in the top 10. If you’re interested in looking at the data, it’s available at spotrac. In terms of number of players who have been or are currently on the Injured List, the Twins are tied for 10th in baseball. Here’s a look at the rankings:

TEAM	PLAYERS
1. Giants	26
2. Blue Jays	25
3. Padres	23
4. Mariners	22
5(t). Astros	21
5(t). Rays	21
7(t). Dodgers	20
7(t). Brewers	20
7(t). Cubs	20
10(t). Mets	19
10(t). Twins	19

Change the metric to days spent on the IL and the Twins are even lower down on the list. They rank 23rd at 360 days. There are four teams with more than 700 combined days on the IL. And you know what? It hasn’t prevented any of them from having winning seasons. Two of the top four teams are in first place (the Rays and Giants) and the other two have winning records ( the Padres and Blue Jays).

TEAM	Days
1. Padres	943
2. Rays	748
3. Giants	732
4. Blue Jays	718
...	...
23. Twins	370

Switch the focus to dollars spent on IL players and the Twins are 21st at just over $6.2 million. And, again, the top-four teams in terms of dollars spent on IL players all have winning records (the Astros, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers).

Even right now, with the Twins having 11 players currently on the IL, the team isn’t in the top five. Yes, the Twins have had a ton of injuries, but almost every team in the league has been dealing with similar situations this season. The health of this team isn’t a "get out of jail free" card for those who were in charge of building and managing a winning Twins club in 2021.

The Twins played their 60th game last night, which is as many as they played last season. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the team’s number of players and days on the IL from the past five seasons. These are full-season numbers, so the 2017-19 data represents the full 162-game season. 

TWINS	PLAYERS	DAYS
2021	19	360
2020	14	389
2019	19	629
2018	18	1,052
2017	15	1,026

And now that same information for the entire league.

MLB	PLAYERS	DAYS
2021	488	14,350
2020	456	13,313
2019	574	49,279
2018	585	34,126
2017	530	31,300

We’re less than 40% through the season. This is pretty crazy.

Why? Consequences from last year’s mostly lost season, probably. That sounds like an easy explanation, but I’m not smart enough to find anything better than that (hint, hint: looking for some help here from all you lovely people of the Twins Daily community). 

If we go back further and compare this era to previous ones, I found the explanation Patrick Reusse offered up interesting.

This may have been said with tongue in cheek — sometimes the tone of Reusse’s Tweets can be tough to gauge — but this seems like a legit reason to me. Some people may read that Tweet as "old man mad at new technology" but I think he has a point. In prior eras, the training staff didn’t have much to go on. They had to depend on players self reporting accurately, and they’re almost always going to push to stay on the field.

That’s not to say it was necessarily better in the good ‘ol days. Just different. I would just like to see the best players on the field as close to 100% as much as possible. Can’t somebody just go into the settings and turn injuries off?

Are things going to keep getting even more extreme going forward? Again, I’m not smart enough to figure that out. Hopefully the 2020 hangover is to blame and things deescalate next season.

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[wsnydes]

Its one thing to have production drop off from starter to replacement, but the sloppiness is quite another.  Sure, they have lost games because they simply don't have talent that the other team does.  But more often then not, they're losing because the beat themselves by errors or otherwise sloppy play.  Little things in close games get amplified and result in losses, sometimes in blowout style.  That's not due to injury.  The injuries only explain a small portion of what this season has become.

I don't mind losing, sometimes the opponent is just better.  But it drives me nuts when a team beats itself.  Even more so when its done as often as this team does it.

[USAFChief]

Interesting article, Tom. Thanks.

I have lots of thoughts running through my head, but for now, can you explain the theory that 2020 has had any effect on 2021 injuries? 

 

As I read your data, 2021 isn't unusual in terms of the number or length of IL stays. Am I reading that wrong?

 

And why would fewer games played in 2020 lead to more injuries in 2021 anyway? If, for example, Rocco's habit of giving players more time off has benefits, then shouldn't shorter seasons also lead to more health in the future, rather than less? 

 

[AceWrigley]

Berrios and Pineda and pray for a tornada. ?

[adjacent]

I think after the pandemic interruptions injuries are up in practically all sports. May it be related to disruption of pre-season rutines? I follow soccer quite a bit (forgive me) and it has been terrible. And football pretty much the same.

[nicholas Anderson]

I agree completely with WSNYDES. I would put the main reason for the Twins poor performance in as sloppy play in the field combined with underwhelming pitching.

[AceWrigley]

Yeah, gone are the days of, "Just rub some dirt on it and get back out there."

[AceWrigley]

7 minutes ago, adjacent said:

I think after the pandemic interruptions injuries are up in practically all sports. May it be related to disruption of pre-season rutines? I follow soccer quite a bit (forgive me) and it has been terrible. And football pretty much the same.

The data doesn't support that at all.

[chinmusic]

It's one thing to have stats for days spent on the IL. But what about the value of those players? Buxton out for a month is not the same as Cave.

How many teams have the impact equivalent of Buxton/Kepler/Garver/Arraez  out at once. Maeda too.

It's devastating.

[BritishTwinsFan]

I get the Twins haven't been the most injured but firstly I wonder if that includes COVID & Concussion lists. My understanding is these are not IL stints because they don't require 10 days out. (It could well include this information I'm just not sure)

Secondly, Its all well and good having injuries but no team has lost their superstar for a five weeks of the season. Imagine where the Blue Jays would be if Vladdy Jr had been out. The record without Buxton isn't that much worse but that was during a period where the Twins got hot and includes, but also he played through injury for a bit. Then you have Garver who was getting hot or Maeda looking bad after playing through injury (I'm really hoping thats the reason he was bad).

 

If it was utility guys or bullpen arms each having minimum IL stints then fine but the Twins have seen key players gone and then their replacements banged up too. Put it this was- Willians Astudillo has remained stubbornly healthy all year to add his skillset of comedy defence, the clutch ability to pop out, and whatever blackmail he has over Rocco to keep getting into the lineup. 

[Tom Froemming]

9 minutes ago, BritishTwinsFan said:

I get the Twins haven't been the most injured but firstly I wonder if that includes COVID & Concussion lists. My understanding is these are not IL stints because they don't require 10 days out. (It could well include this information I'm just not sure)

Yes, stays on the COVID-19 and concussion IL are included in these numbers. 

[blindeke]

Don't forget the wild pitch and bases loaded walk that scored NY's first two runs. 

[Rosterman]

Line-up construction? Dismal. Hey, it's nice to have players play multiple positions. But nicer if you actually have players that can play a position. You construct a team that also gives you different skills, especially back-up/replacement players. Speed, defense, putting a ball in play, hitting a fly ball, taking a walk. Like a bullpen. Lights out closer. Someone who can strike people out. A groundball pitcher (if your defense can handle such things). The Twins were totally unprepared for starting a 10th inning with a runner on second, both in moving the runner towards home themselves and also keeping there from a pitching standpoint. It is nice to have a starter (or two) who can potentially stop a losing streak. That works better if they can pitch at least five innings, preferably six (sometimes), throwing things against the wall and seeing what sticks, giving guys games off for no particular reason (you are hired to play ball). Right now the clubhouse has to be a mess. Same old same old game after game after game. A dozen in the hole is a deep hole to climb.

[TheLeviathan]

38 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

The data doesn't support that at all.

I don't believe you're reading that right.  The 2021 data is for 40% of the season and the other seasons are for the entire year.  At least that's how I'm reading it.  Is that right @Tom Froemming?

If so, not only are injuries up, but they are up at a ridiculously high rate both for the Twins and the league as a whole.  (Which jives with other articles I've read)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fangraphs analyzed this a few days ago:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-are-running-out-of-time/

Quote

The injuries have affected the team, but they only explain part of the win shortfall. To get a rough idea of this, I went back to what the ZiPS-projected record for each team at this point would be after the games of June 3, then re-did the projection with the preseason projections for players while reflecting the actual distribution of playing time.

 

AL Central Roster Shortfalls vs. Projected Roster

Team	Projected Wins At This Time	Projected Wins with Actual Rosters	Difference
Chicago White Sox	30.7	29.6	-1.1
Minnesota Twins	31.5	28.1	-3.4
Cleveland	26.3	27.3	1.0
Kansas City Royals	26.7	26.2	-0.5
Detroit Tigers	24.2	25.1	0.9

With perfect knowledge of who played so far this season, ZiPS would have expected the White Sox to be in first place rather than the Twins. But even with this very specific advanced knowledge of the future given to us by the Ghost of Memorial Days Yet to Come, we’d still expect the Twins to be in second place. Now, this methodology can’t be perfect — roster decisions aren’t only based on injuries, and injuries can also affect performance — but three missing wins isn’t nine-and-a-half wins, so a lot in there has to be simple underperformance.

 

[Tom Froemming]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't believe you're reading that right.  The 2021 data is for 40% of the season and the other seasons are for the entire year.  At least that's how I'm reading it.  Is that right @Tom Froemming?

If so, not only are injuries up, but they are up at a ridiculously high rate both for the Twins and the league as a whole.  (Which jives with other articles I've read)

That's correct. Those are all full-season stats in those. I'm going to add a clarification right now.

[Grasslander]

Roco Baldelli knows more about baseball in the first five minutes of each day than I have accumulated in all of my fading life, but I cannot understand why he brings in a young man to make his MLB debut in the 8th inning versus the Yanks with the game still up in the air. Injuries to key players have kept this Twins team from finding a team mojo, but in a critical (they're all critical now) game versus the Yanks with lots of momentum at stake, Baldelli seemingly throws in the towel. And why start Austidillo at third in such a momentum game? Is that what the metrix are telling Baldelli?  Was it necessary to rest Donaldson?   

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 minutes ago, Grasslander said:

Roco Baldelli knows more about baseball in the first five minutes of each day than I have accumulated in all of my fading life, but I cannot understand why he brings in a young man to make his MLB debut in the 8th inning versus the Yanks with the game still up in the air.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

Jax came in for the 9th, not the 8th, and with a 2 run lead and only 3 more outs left, the generic Yankees win probability at that point was 93%. And that doesn't factor in that the Twins 6-7-8 hitters were due up in the 9th, or that Chapman would have come in (rather than Wandy Peralta) if the deficit had still been 2 runs. Opposing batters are only hitting .097/.214/.194 against Chapman this year, for an OPS of .409.

Would have been nice to keep it close and make the Yankees use Chapman, of course, but Jax getting his feet wet against the weaker part of the Yankees order could outweigh that. At least it gave us some information about Jax's readiness.

[Brock Beauchamp]

24 minutes ago, spycake said:

Welcome to Twins Daily!

Jax came in for the 9th, not the 8th, and with a 2 run lead and only 3 more outs left, the generic Yankees win probability at that point was 93%. And that doesn't factor in that the Twins 6-7-8 hitters were due up in the 9th, or that Chapman would have come in (rather than Wandy Peralta) if the deficit had still been 2 runs. Opposing batters are only hitting .097/.214/.194 against Chapman this year, for an OPS of .409.

Would have been nice to keep it close and make the Yankees use Chapman, of course, but Jax getting his feet wet against the weaker part of the Yankees order could outweigh that. At least it gave us some information about Jax's readiness.

Yeah, last night was a good example of how we as fans view win “probability” versus the actual win probability of a situation. That was a low leverage situation in the ninth. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

The story that isn't told here that is interesting to me is that, in reality, injuries aren't up that much.  If we take the number Tom showed for 2021 of 14,350 days, and divide it by .37 (as we're about 37% of the way through the season), we see that the league is on pace for 38,784 IL days.  That is vastly down to 2019 (over 21%), and just 13.7% above 2018.  Conversely, the Twins are on pace for 973 IL days, up 55% to 2019, but actually below both 2017 and 2018.

This makes me wonder--is part of why the Twins won 101 games in 2019 because they were able to avoid the IL?  The Twins reduced their IL days in 2019, at the same time as IL days in the rest of the league exploded.  Now that they are back to being league average in IL days, they're back to being non-competitive.

[Whitey333]

I find it amusing how people dig up, invent, or otherwise use sometimes obscure analytics and stats to explain away poor play and try to convince us they aren't playing that poorly.  They have a lot of injuries yes but they weren't playing well with a "full" team.  The Twins problems to me seem simple:. No offense, no defense, no pitching.  The fact that the FO keeps signing reclamation pitching with the hopes they may rebound compounds the problem.

[Grasslander]

Sorry - there is a big difference between the 8th and 9th innings. Nevertheless, the point I would make is that while the metrix might reveal that the Twins' chances of winning at the point Jax entered the game were slim, what is your strategy? Do you stay competitive and do what you can do to try and win the game or do you throw out a genuine first timer and see what he can do?  I prefer the former, especially in a two-run game.  What do you think Twins' players thought when they watched Jax enter the game? ...That the team was going to fight it out to the bitter end?  Every game is critical, and every "next" inning is the most important inning of this season. I'm growing weary of the metrix myopia. So what about Chapman. Competitive athletes wanna take their best shot at anyone.  Also -- This injury situation is confounding, as everyone on here knows.  I watched Willie Mays play baseball and witnessed his career as a young fan. Did he play with great intensity? During his career he played in nearly every single game. The year the schedule expanded to 162 games -1962, I think- he played in all 162 games.  Mays was a special athlete, to be sure, but nowhere as fit and strong as nearly all major leaguers today.  Mays was not alone in his generation in playing nearly every game of a season. Some argue that NOT playing nearly every day makes you vulnerable to injury.  As a newbie to this board, I apologize for rattling on so long. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I find it amusing how people dig up, invent, or otherwise use sometimes obscure analytics and stats to explain away poor play and try to convince us they aren't playing that poorly.  They have a lot of injuries yes but they weren't playing well with a "full" team.  The Twins problems to me seem simple:. No offense, no defense, no pitching.  The fact that the FO keeps signing reclamation pitching with the hopes they may rebound compounds the problem.

Who did that? Who has used any stats to show they aren't playing poorly? I'm genuinely curious, because I'd love to see that.

Look, the problem is the pitching. And somehow the defense. 

[wsnydes]

13 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I find it amusing how people dig up, invent, or otherwise use sometimes obscure analytics and stats to explain away poor play and try to convince us they aren't playing that poorly.  They have a lot of injuries yes but they weren't playing well with a "full" team.  The Twins problems to me seem simple:. No offense, no defense, no pitching.  The fact that the FO keeps signing reclamation pitching with the hopes they may rebound compounds the problem.

This article is actually arguing the opposite of what you're saying.  They're not losing because of the injuries.  And it's not trying to convince you that they're a good team.

When was the last time this team played with a "full team"?  They were 5-2 the first week of the season, and that was probably as close to healthy as they've been since.  

That's not to say that they've played well, however.  Even the healthy players have underperformed.  So, as the article is stating, injuries are not the prime reason for the poor play.

[wsnydes]

17 minutes ago, Grasslander said:

Sorry - there is a big difference between the 8th and 9th innings. Nevertheless, the point I would make is that while the metrix might reveal that the Twins' chances of winning at the point Jax entered the game were slim, what is your strategy? Do you stay competitive and do what you can do to try and win the game or do you throw out a genuine first timer and see what he can do?  I prefer the former, especially in a two-run game.  What do you think Twins' players thought when they watched Jax enter the game? ...That the team was going to fight it out to the bitter end?  Every game is critical, and every "next" inning is the most important inning of this season. I'm growing weary of the metrix myopia. So what about Chapman. Competitive athletes wanna take their best shot at anyone.  Also -- This injury situation is confounding, as everyone on here knows.  I watched Willie Mays play baseball and witnessed his career as a young fan. Did he play with great intensity? During his career he played in nearly every single game. The year the schedule expanded to 162 games -1962, I think- he played in all 162 games.  Mays was a special athlete, to be sure, but nowhere as fit and strong as nearly all major leaguers today.  Mays was not alone in his generation in playing nearly every game of a season. Some argue that NOT playing nearly every day makes you vulnerable to injury.  As a newbie to this board, I apologize for rattling on so long. 

The only bullpen arms that didn't pitch last night were Robles and Duffey, who both had pitched the last two games.  Granted, with a day off sandwiched between them.  I imagine that Rocco was trying to keep some arms available for the remainder of the series with the backend of the rotation starting the next two.  Given the low level situation, it only made sense to use Jax in the 9th.

He, as well as all of us, know that this week is going to be pretty hard on the pitchers.  It makes sense to save two of your better arms in that scenario.

[FritzDahmus]

3 hours ago, chinmusic said:

It's one thing to have stats for days spent on the IL. But what about the value of those players? Buxton out for a month is not the same as Cave.

How many teams have the impact equivalent of Buxton/Kepler/Garver/Arraez  out at once. Maeda too.

It's devastating.

Absolutely agree. This article is yet another case of "using stats as a crutch" because you don't know what you are looking at.

We had our big free agent acquisition [Donaldson] go down last year and then at the start of the year.
The second place vote getter for the Cy Young pitched thru an injury and then went down [Maeda].
A player having a MVP month and the 2nd player picked in his draft....goes down ..... again!!! [Buxton]
One of the best hitters from the last decade...gets hurt 5 weeks ago and has never been the same and is now rested a lot [Cruz].
Kepler [is he still on the team??] isn't exactly chopped liver.....has been out forever [even when he plays...he isn't right]
A catcher who was the Silver Slugger winner.....has been right for....3 weeks....maybe?? [Garver]
The "next .400 hitter"......is out [Arraez]. Need I say more??

Then the real problem....Simmons, Polanco, and Sano...playing like they are in mourning over all the injuries....and the FO thinking we don't need Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, and Clippard....but needed JA Happ, and Shoemaker????

Move Roco to the FO....he already talks like they do. Can't stand it. We need a salty old manager who says it like it is.

Oh...and one more thing, A-Rod buy the Twins and not the T-Wolves!!! Please!! Bring all your "supplies" with [or at least rekindle those old supply lines]. ?

 

 

 

[BritishTwinsFan]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Line-up construction? Dismal. Hey, it's nice to have players play multiple positions. But nicer if you actually have players that can play a position. You construct a team that also gives you different skills, especially back-up/replacement players. Speed, defense, putting a ball in play, hitting a fly ball, taking a walk. Like a bullpen. Lights out closer. Someone who can strike people out. A groundball pitcher (if your defense can handle such things). 

It didn't work out but look at it

Outside the Kiriloff left field hole to start the season that is exactly what the Twins had. A projected defensive powerhouse left sided infield with masters in those positions. Same with centrefield and right field. Sano who is pretty good at first, Garver and Jeffers as good catchers. I'm sure you are talking about Astudillo who is lovely to have on the bench to cover injuries but shouldn't be starting in the field or relied on to hit. Arraez is serviceable alongside Polanco defensively. Then Cave who fits the role of the 4th outfielder on a team with a strong DH- There for cheapness, defense and flexibility but again isn't an everyday starter. 

Then in the bullpen on paper you have 3 closers- Rogers and Robles projected to return to 2019 form, and then Colome who WAS a shutdown guy last season, looked a bargain at half the 2020 price and should have suited the defensive infield. Building the roster you are balancing cost with upside and expected performance. Colome even with some regression built in looked good, you can't predict his cutter stopping working based on available data. High leverage situations aren't always the 9th so its good to have flexibility rather than one superstar you are scared to waste or gas. 

Coming into spring the Twins had Speed (Buxton, Cave Polanco), Defense (Donaldson, Simmons, Buxton), Reliable hitting/Patient hitting (Cruz, Donaldson) plus strikeout guys like Robles in the bullpen. 

 

In terms of the players called up for depth Refsynder, Gordon, Larnach have all done well. Bullpen depth perhaps not but a lot of the guys were projects that maybe didn't get the time before being pressed into service. Even with starters there were 7/8 guys set to go opening day. I'm not sure with the budget *And Knowledge* available that there could have been much else done on roster construction. My view is early bad form, surprises and injuries got the Twins behind where the pressure mounted and the fundamentals fell apart. E.g. the infield Errors have been too high but I'm not sure how that could be predicted preseason. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't believe you're reading that right.  The 2021 data is for 40% of the season and the other seasons are for the entire year.  At least that's how I'm reading it.  Is that right @Tom Froemming?

If so, not only are injuries up, but they are up at a ridiculously high rate both for the Twins and the league as a whole.  (Which jives with other articles I've read)

But they're not up at a "ridiculously high rate."

The full season rates for 2017 and 2018 are a little lower than the 2021 rate, but 2019 is higher. If you combine 2017-19, as an average, it's almost Identical to 2021.

There's no data in this article that should lead anyone to conclude 2021 is remarkable for injury rate.

[Dodecahedron]

Thanks for pulling this data.  Injuries suck, but player performance on the field is the problem.

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, FritzDahmus said:

Absolutely agree. This article is yet another case of "using stats as a crutch" because you don't know what you are looking at.

We had our big free agent acquisition [Donaldson] go down last year and then at the start of the year.
The second place vote getter for the Cy Young pitched thru an injury and then went down [Maeda].
A player having a MVP month and the 2nd player picked in his draft....goes down ..... again!!! [Buxton]
One of the best hitters from the last decade...gets hurt 5 weeks ago and has never been the same and is now rested a lot [Cruz].
Kepler [is he still on the team??] isn't exactly chopped liver.....has been out forever [even when he plays...he isn't right]
A catcher who was the Silver Slugger winner.....has been right for....3 weeks....maybe?? [Garver]
The "next .400 hitter"......is out [Arraez]. Need I say more??

Then the real problem....Simmons, Polanco, and Sano...playing like they are in mourning over all the injuries....and the FO thinking we don't need Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, and Clippard....but needed JA Happ, and Shoemaker????
 

 

But this team was losing when all of the guys you mentioned were healthy.  Buxton was playing at an MVP level, and the team was still losing.  Cruz was hitting and the team was still losing.  We don't know how long Maeda was pitching hurt, but last season was an outlier in his career.  Donaldson has been playing his best ball in a long while and the team is still losing.  Kepler hasn't replicated his 2019 season, healthy or not.  Garver hasn't replicated his 2019 until the last month or so, the team was still losing when he was hitting.  Arraez has been excellent...and the team was still losing.  Polanco has played his best ball in two years (despite being hurt) and the team is still losing.  Sano has been abysmal all season, yet has been healthy most of it.  All of those guys have played extended stretches where most, if not all, were in the lineup and they were still losing.

Rosario isn't playing much better than the crop of guys they've run through LF.  May has been awful and Clippard hasn't thrown a pitch this season.  Have Happ and Shoemaker been effective?  No, and they're perfectly healthy as far as we know.  Also not mentioned is the bullpen, which has largely been healthy yet completely incapable of holding down a game.  So, saying that we're using "stats as a crutch because we don't know what we're looking at" glosses over the fact that healthy players are underperforming.  The team is bad.  Injuries are a part of it, but its certainly not the primary reason.