Article: Position Analyis: First Base

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1456-Position-Analyis-First-Base

[Thrylos]

I think that Colabello will be more likely than Clement at this point...

[Rosterman]

Twins just added former Cardinal Curt Smith to start, most likely, at New Britain.

[Snortwood]

My hope for this is that Morneau pulls it together and Parmelee hits great and proves he's a first baseman, and the Twins trade Parmelee for another strong young arm and re-sign Justin to another long-term deal. Dudley Dooright belongs in the great white north!

[Yoshii]

It would really be nice if Morneau could pull it together and stay a Twin. Among all the negativity surrounding the Twins these past two seasons, I believe in Morneau. He will get it done this year.

[Shane Wahl]

In my view, the long term view is going to be:

 

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

 

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

 

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

 

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

[glunn]

In my view, the long term view is going to be:

 

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

 

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

 

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

 

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

 

I like Shane's analysis of this, but wonder if Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee would fetch a decent SS, 3B and SP. I also worry about trading these three players and taking the risk that Morneau gets injured again.

 

I am hoping that Morneau gets back to his MVP form. If the Twins are sellers at the trade deadline, I would think that a healthy Morneau might fetch a lot better prospect(s) than the other three combined. And if the Twins are anywhere near contending at the trade deadline, it seems to me that Morneau (and Willingham) should be virtually untouchable -- these are proven players who (along with Mauer) could carry the Twins to the wild card or better.

[Blackjack]

If Morneau plays the whole season with the Twins, and signs with another team in the off season, will the Twins get any compensation in the form of an extra draft pick?? If the answer is yes, I think thats what will happen. TR/Twins get something out of it and Justin ends up being the bad guy for going elsewhere - shades of Tori Hunter.

 

Dumaits not getting traded, they like him as a replacement for Mauer, keeps Mauer healthy and on the field.

[FrodaddyG]

If Morneau plays the whole season with the Twins, and signs with another team in the off season, will the Twins get any compensation in the form of an extra draft pick?? If the answer is yes, I think thats what will happen.

They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

[Mike Sixel]

Fangrpahs has them as the 17th best 1B group.....they are not bullish on Morneau. Also, even if he is back, he's potentially past his prime. That said, I think he's going to have a very, very good year, and be traded. If not traded, I think he signs someplace else. I think this is our last shot to see him, which bums me out. He's a great player, and a great asset in the community.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

 

Well, maybe. If Justin OPSes at .800, he'll take the Twins' offer. If he OPSes at .850 or better, there's a chance another team will offer him enough money and years to sway him away from the Twins.

[Nick Nelson]

They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

 

It'll be an interesting situation, and it's nice because it keeps the Twins from being forced to move Morneau at the deadline if he's playing well and they're out of it.

 

In the event that no one offers up what they're looking for, they can keep him and give him a qualifying offer during the offseason. He either turns it down to look for a multi-year deal, in which case the Twins move on with their plans and get an extra draft pick, or they get him on a ~12M one-year deal for 2014. I'd take him back on those terms.

 

Of course, this is all predicated on Morneau having a good year, which is why his production this season is quite important to them.

[Mr. Brooks]

In my view, the long term view is going to be:

 

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

 

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

 

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

 

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

 

Are you basing that off last season, or are you basing it off a handful of ST and WBC AB's?

[jay]

I think the continued development this summer of our near-MLB OF prospects plays the biggest role in determining how they handle Morneau this season and next off-season if he's still around.

[jokin]

Are you basing that off last season, or are you basing it off a handful of ST and WBC AB's?

 

It can't be based on last season because he definitely wasn't "dominant". Therefore, I guess in this instance, "domiant" is 11 ABs in the WBC and 23 in Spring Training. Who knew?

[jay]

Well, maybe. If Justin OPSes at .800, he'll take the Twins' offer. If he OPSes at .850 or better, there's a chance another team will offer him enough money and years to sway him away from the Twins.

 

You'd think so, but LaRoche just OPS'ed .850 and had to sign for 2 years with his original team at less per annum than the qualifying $ amt. Morneau has had some better top-end years, but their career numbers aren't too far off.

 

Saying there's a chance is always a safe statement, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him return -- especially if there's a pick hanging over his head. I have a hard time picturing the Twins let him go if he has a strong/great year.

[FrodaddyG]

or they get him on a ~12M one-year deal for 2014. I'd take him back on those terms.

I'm not sure what the exact calculations are that go into it, but wouldn't the qualifying offer amount likely go up from the $13M or whatever it was at this year? It does require him to have a good year to even take the chance on offering it, but if it's maybe going to be closer to $15-16M, is that an amount Morneau can possibly be worth on the far side of 30?

 

Really, unless he's playing at an absolute peak level again by the trade deadline, he needs to get moved for the best package possible. Morneau producing at 75% of his peak probably won't be worth risking that qualifying offer (leaving him most likely walking with no return), but may have value to a team with injury woes or weak production at 1B looking to push towards a playoff spot at the end of July.

[jay]

I have a hard time picturing the Twins let him go if he has a strong/great year.

 

I should qualify that with 'assuming he's still here at the end of the season for some reason'. That would take the Twins in contention or else the more likely reality that he'll get traded after the break if he's having a good year.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I believe the qualifying offer at the end of the year (to get a draft pick) will be around $14 mill. If Morneau is still here (I hope he is traded at the deadline for SS/P and Parmalee at 1B and Arcia in RF) that is a lot of money to give him considering concussion history and age in 2014 (32). He would take it.

[bird]

Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

 

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

[Mr. Brooks]

Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

 

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

 

I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.

I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

[jokin]

Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

 

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

 

Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.

[Rosterman]

I would take the qualifying offer risk, depending on how well he does during the season. We also will get a better idea of Parmelee after this year. So the Twins can afford NOT to deal Morneau and still retain him (or get a draft pick if he refuses). Or they can trade him. I think Morneau does have value as a long-term DH who can also play first, it just depends on the overall price. But a $13-15 million paycheck in 2014 is something the Twins could afford. Then we look at Morneau/Willingham/Doumit ALL coming off the books at that season's end.

 

The thought that the Twins will be able to resign Morneau to a long-term siginificantly less contract is probably nill, seeing what happened to lowballing Nathan, Cuddyer, Baker and even Kubel. Its a crapshoot for a player, but you have to look at what a team competitiveness is in the near future (yes, Cuddyer blew his choice).

[Rosterman]

Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.

 

 

We complain about getting little in return for Liriano. We got something., The White Sox got nothing. We could've kept him and had him walk. Who knows if Escobar will be the 3-4 year utility guy who has one great year as a fill-in when a middle infielder goes down. Hernandez may develop into a 5th starter or a good long man shades of Duensing. But we got two players for a guy who was not going to resign with the Twins for THEIR price.

[Shane Wahl]

It can't be based on last season because he definitely wasn't "dominant". Therefore, I guess in this instance, "domiant" is 11 ABs in the WBC and 23 in Spring Training. Who knew?

 

First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

 

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

 

So stop.

[Nick Nelson]

I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.

I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

 

There's a risk with any player that he'll get hurt and give you no production for the cost. Could happen with Mauer. Basically has happened with Mauer.

 

But with Morneau, it'd be a one-year deal and they're going to have loads to payroll flexibility next year, so it doesn't seem like a terrible risk to me, even if you have to overpay a bit. Especially if he's coming off a big season.

[Shane Wahl]

I would offer it to him, but depending on that whole Napoli-Ortiz situation, I would be willing to bet that the Red Sox would throw some years at him. Victorino+ money.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think he hits well and gets traded for something nice. The real question is whether the Twins try to bring him back. I certainly would if he's past his issues, but I'm a fan and Morneau is my favorite player.

[Mr. Brooks]

First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

 

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

 

So stop.

 

I'm not a big fan of picking out 2 months of a full season. Every player in baseball has months where they hit well above their final OPS, as well as months they hit well below it.

There is a reason that baseball uses such a long season, its a "fluky" enough game that it takes a large sample size to even out.

If it were a consistent trend where it gradually improved each month from April through September, then I could consider that he was shaking off the rust, but it wasnt.

He was terrible in April, then hit the cover off the ball in May, then terrible again in June, then pretty good in July and August, then terrible again in Sept., or basically the same type of monthly splits that I would predict you'd find from any other league average first baseman last year.

 

That said, I do think he's going to have a better year this year. I think confidence goes a long way in baseball, and I'm sure he's more confident than he was this time of year. But, its based on gut feeling and not something I think you can cherry pick random splits from last year to predict.

[Mr. Brooks]

There's a risk with any player that he'll get hurt and give you no production for the cost. Could happen with Mauer. Basically has happened with Mauer.

 

But with Morneau, it'd be a one-year deal and they're going to have loads to payroll flexibility next year, so it doesn't seem like a terrible risk to me, even if you have to overpay a bit. Especially if he's coming off a big season.

 

That's a false equivalence. Certain players carry MORE risk than other players.

Sure any player could get a concussion at any time, but a guy with half a dozen (at least) already is much more risky than a guy who hasnt had any.

 

I just dont see Morneau as part of the long term of this team. In that case, why even bother with the risk? The only way he's worth the $14 million qualifying offer is if he's having a great year, and if that is the case, then we shouldnt have any problem getting a decent prospect at the deadline.

Parmalee can move to 1st, and Arcia gets called up to play RF.