Article: Samuel Deduno showing progress in World Baseball Classic

[ThePuck]

Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

 

exactly!

[jokin]

Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

 

I've been singing from the Filler Ds songbook the whole offseason. This search for a "pretty darn good FA pitcher" really was the long, strange trip to nowhere.

[by jiminy]

Deduno is at least worth watching -- he's interesting! If you're not going to win much anyone, I'd rather watch strikeouts, wild pitches, walks, and unpredictable ball movement, where anything can happen on any pitch, than some mediocrity who keeps it around the plate and gets slowly but methodically scored on.

[3up3down]

guys , this is pretty simple...the Mgr & pitching coach want somebody to be as consistent as possible , not have to worry are they going to get out of the 1st inning.. thats why they signed correia...deduno does have very nasty movement but he is always 1 pitch away from disaster & nothing has changed or clicked as some call it, he was 1 pitch from disaster last night & barely got out of the 1st inning & coaches just dont want that ...you can look at his numbers & rates & all that stuff but its a simple process if he keeps putting guys on base by walks or hit batters he will start to give up alot of runs at some point. i have said he would be a good pen guy & some disagree , but even last night he threw his slider 80% of the time , if he did that out of the pen he could dominate a inning ...but now he is trying to get ahead with the fastball & he has no idea where its going..his arm is going to fall off if he continues to throw that many sliders as a starting pitcher.

[jokin]

 

Regarding Deduno... he's the rare pitcher who is 29 but still has intriguing upside. His style is unconventional, but so was Dickey's when he came through the Twins' organization as a 34-year-old. Dickey was trying to figure out a hard knuckleball and it took him quite a while to master; Deduno's stuff, which darts all over the zone, has been likened to knucklers by some catchers. Could he be a late-bloomer in the same vein?

 

So does this mean we'll be trading Deduno to the Mariners for Jair Fernandez, or releasing him so the Mets can sign him to their starting rotation a few months later?

[cmathewson]

This is their upside:

 

Correia = Nick Blackburn circa 2008

Deduno = Francisco Liriano circa 2010

DeVries = Kevin Slowey circa 2010

 

This is their floor

 

Correia = Blackburn circa 2011

Deduno = Liriano circa 2012

DeVries = Slowey circa 2011

 

Cost differential is nominal. The second year of Correia is the main problem. If he pitches well, he's worth a second year, and he's also tradeable, if we don't want that burden. If not, he's not worth it and we can't trade him. That seems like a lot of risk. But it's what the market demanded, I guess.

 

I'm no Correia, fan, but it bugs me that that one signing flipped a switch from "TR is having a great offseason!" to "Fire TR, he sucks!" The Twins were known to have offers on the table for several pitchers But all but one decided to sign elsewhere, and we were left with Correia.

 

They are called free agents for a reason: They're free to choose the best offer for them, and not all of their decisions are based on $$$. For example, we had a competitive offer for Liriano, but he decided he wanted to pitch in the NL. So what are you going to do? Rumor has it, a similar thing happened with McCarthy. The Twins can't disclose this stuff, so they just take the criticism for decisions largely out of their hands. The only reason we know about Liriano is he told the press after he signed with the Pirates.

[FrodaddyG]

The Twins were known to have offers on the table for several pitchers But all but one decided to sign elsewhere, and we were left with Correia.

Except Correia signed BEFORE most of the comparable guys, and got more money and years. They weren't "left" with Correia, they made a concerted effort to pick him above several others. Hence, the annoyance.

[Mr. Brooks]

This is their upside:

 

Correia = Nick Blackburn circa 2008

Deduno = Francisco Liriano circa 2010

DeVries = Kevin Slowey circa 2010

 

This is their floor

 

Correia = Blackburn circa 2011

Deduno = Liriano circa 2012

DeVries = Slowey circa 2011

 

Cost differential is nominal. The second year of Correia is the main problem. If he pitches well, he's worth a second year, and he's also tradeable, if we don't want that burden. If not, he's not worth it and we can't trade him. That seems like a lot of risk. But it's what the market demanded, I guess.

 

I'm no Correia, fan, but it bugs me that that one signing flipped a switch from "TR is having a great offseason!" to "Fire TR, he sucks!" The Twins were known to have offers on the table for several pitchers But all but one decided to sign elsewhere, and we were left with Correia.

 

They are called free agents for a reason: They're free to choose the best offer for them, and not all of their decisions are based on $$$. For example, we had a competitive offer for Liriano, but he decided he wanted to pitch in the NL. So what are you going to do? Rumor has it, a similar thing happened with McCarthy. The Twins can't disclose this stuff, so they just take the criticism for decisions largely out of their hands. The only reason we know about Liriano is he told the press after he signed with the Pirates.

 

At least 14 starting pitchers who are basically in the same class as Correia, as far as talent, age and numbers, signed 1 year deals this offseason.

All but 3 of them signed for less than 5 million dollars.

I'm sorry but i'm just not buying it that the Twins would not be able to get a single one of these pitchers to come here on a 1 year deal, especially if they were willing to overpay by a million or so to get it done.

IMO, whats more likely, is that the Twins have some scout who has convinced them that Correia, despite a 1000 inning sample size, is actually somehow "better" than the rest of the guys in this grouping of FA starting pitchers, so they had their sights set on him from the start.

[Mr. Brooks]

In fact, here is a direct quote from TR: (credit to AG.com)

 

Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers.

I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. ... I don't think we overpaid drastically in this situation. People that know him say that he's a good teammate and all that type of stuff, so you take all of that into consideration. We needed pitching badly, so we went and got him.

[kab21]

The problem wasn't that they spent 10M on Correia (although that's not good either). The problem isn't that Deduno and Devries make 500K. The problem is that they could have doubled Corriea's contract and entered a tier of pitchers that are actually halfway decent. I'm not a big fan of the McCarthy's, Saunders' or Blanton's but I am more confident that they won't be another version of Marquis/Pitcherpottamus/Ortiz/Livan.

[jokin]

Except Correia signed BEFORE most of the comparable guys, and got more money and years. They weren't "left" with Correia, they made a concerted effort to pick him above several others. Hence, the annoyance.

 

It's really quite simple. Look up the Twins transaction history in the offseason. A flurry of activity, signings, trades, "staffing maneuvers", (of course, masking the big excision in payroll).... in October, November and throughout December. January and February? Re-signed Duensing and Butera and the Raising of the Dead Resurrectional, "he's fully healthy and a starter!", signing of Perez at the start of ST.

 

It has all the hallmark of a month long or so "well-deserved" vacation in the front office that had chosen to "put their affairs in order", ala 2013 Puntage-Style.

[Willihammer]

Did Liriano say anything about the Twins fielding a competitive offer? I thought he said "the Pirates offer was better."

 

By my count, the only guy Jr outbid the market for, was Harden for a whopping $1m. Speaking of which, is he throwing off a mound yet or still limited to 120 foot catch?

 

If Jr is to be believed, the Twins didn't even outbid the market for Correia.

 

So for the 2nd straight free agency, pitching was the Twins clearest weakness. And for the 2nd straight year, Jr basically did the same thing:

 

Correia : Marquis

Harden : Zumaya

Roenicke : Maloney

Pressly : Diamond

Perez : Burton

 

I see little reason to hope for anything better than what we saw from last offseason's acquisitions.

[jokin]

Did Liriano say anything about the Twins fielding a competitive offer? I thought he said "the Pirates offer was better."

 

By my count, the only guy Jr outbid the market for, was Harden for a whopping $1m. Speaking of which, is he throwing off a mound yet or still limited to 120 foot catch?

 

If Jr is to be believed, the Twins didn't even outbid the market for Correia.

 

So for the 2nd straight free agency, pitching was the Twins clearest weakness. And for the 2nd straight year, Jr basically did the same thing:

 

Correia : Marquis

Harden : Zumaya

Roenicke : Maloney

Pressly : Diamond

Perez : Burton

 

I see little reason to hope for anything better than what we saw from last offseason's acquisitions.

 

Well-stated, what's that saying again about old dogs and new tricks? That the average Twins fan apparently accepts this after 2 seasons of utter inpetitude is mind-boggling. Or is the apathy factor bigger than apparent on the surface? Clearly, the televised media has largely ignored the Twins this spring, even with all the in-season ineptitude happening with the other sports entertainment options.

[Mike Sixel]

Five extra million for Correia is irrelevant if you won't sign any legit FAs anyway.....seriously, at this point, it does not matter if they waste $5MM, if they won't spend money elsewhere.

[jokin]

Five extra million for Correia is irrelevant if you won't sign any legit FAs anyway.....seriously, at this point, it does not matter if they waste $5MM, if they won't spend money elsewhere.

 

The relevance is the situation wherein the the Twins FO is making the Twins irrelavant through their questionable signings based on guys "better than the numbers indicate", resurrectional and reclamation pick-ups and Ryan's pathetic "woe is me" anti-marketing campaign in "selling" the Twins as a destination to prospective FAs and their agents.

 

The ironic thing is, he proved he can identify value and sign cheap replacement position players if he has a mind to, this year, nada.

[Mr. Brooks]

Five extra million for Correia is irrelevant if you won't sign any legit FAs anyway.....seriously, at this point, it does not matter if they waste $5MM, if they won't spend money elsewhere.

 

The point is guaranteeing $5 million for next year.

You are right that they are not spending any money this year, but they have shown that they will spend up to their budget if they feel they can be competitive.

If some combonation of Hicks/Gibson/Dozier/Arcia/Hendricks/May/Meyer does enough to convince them that they have the young base in place to go ahead and spend money to put some legitimate free agent pieces around them, you'd hate to have $5million of that money wasted on a guy who might be our 7th or 8th best starting pitcher at that point.

[Riverbrian]

Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

 

I'm pretty sure there will be American League Regression... It's a pretty typical occurance... However, if the American League regression happens while his uptrend continues we may not notice.

 

The 2nd year is still my primary concern with Kevin... He was never my first choice but I still think he has been pre-attacked. Maybe he will struggle and maybe he will keep us in a decent percentage of games.

 

I think it's safe to assume that he won't be confused with Verlander. Could Corriea be confused with Tim Hudson? For a year? He could... and until he actually fails... I'm going to keep assuming that he will at least be better than Blackburn was in 2012 and that will help us in 2013.

[jokin]

I'm pretty sure there will be American League Regression... It's a pretty typical occurance... However, if the American League regression happens while his uptrend continues we may not notice.

 

The 2nd year is still my primary concern with Kevin... He was never my first choice but I still think he has been pre-attacked. Maybe he will struggle and maybe he will keep us in a decent percentage of games.

 

I think it's safe to assume that he won't be confused with Verlander. Could Corriea be confused with Tim Hudson? For a year? He could... and until he actually fails... I'm going to keep assuming that he will at least be better than Blackburn was in 2012 and that will help us in 2013.

 

Setting the bar low, smart move RB!

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm pretty sure there will be American League Regression... It's a pretty typical occurance... However, if the American League regression happens while his uptrend continues we may not notice.

 

The 2nd year is still my primary concern with Kevin... He was never my first choice but I still think he has been pre-attacked. Maybe he will struggle and maybe he will keep us in a decent percentage of games.

 

I think it's safe to assume that he won't be confused with Verlander. Could Corriea be confused with Tim Hudson? For a year? He could... and until he actually fails... I'm going to keep assuming that he will at least be better than Blackburn was in 2012 and that will help us in 2013.

 

What "uptrend" are we talking about?

His ERA improved last year, but that was just as likely due to luck (a career best babip which was 20 points better than his career babip) as it was to any improved skill. Sure his walk rate is trending down the last couple years, but so is his K rate, so thats basically a wash.

[Riverbrian]

What "uptrend" are we talking about?

His ERA improved last year, but that was just as likely due to luck (a career best babip which was 20 points better than his career babip) as it was to any improved skill. Sure his walk rate is trending down the last couple years, but so is his K rate, so thats basically a wash.

 

It's an over simplication on my part... However, I can't speak to luck... I can't predict it and I won't declare it but I know it's a large part of the game and that goes for Verlander as well.

 

Basically from 2010 to 2012... Correia has gotten better each year... ERA and WHIP is trending in the right direction. I'm not saying that trend won't come to a complete stop in 2013. I'm just not going to let him ruin my off-season before he actually does fail for us.

 

And if he does fail... Deduno, Devries, Gibson, Meyer, May, Harden and even an improved Blackburn(who knows) are available to step in. So in the end... My issue with Correia is the 2nd year primarily... And maybe that is what it took to get him even if most don't want him.

[Mike Sixel]

In fact, here is a direct quote from TR: (credit to AG.com)

 

Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers.

I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. ... I don't think we overpaid drastically in this situation. People that know him say that he's a good teammate and all that type of stuff, so you take all of that into consideration. We needed pitching badly, so we went and got him.

 

I am 100% certain this will not help you on this board......not many here believe that 30+ year old pitchers with long track records "are better than their numbers".....people are what they are, that's the beauty of number, they remove all the emotional BS like "great teammate" "good makeup".....none of that matters if it does not produce good numbers. None of it.

 

As has been stated, he basically, with that quote, proved everyone right that they are scouts 99%, and numbers people 1%, and that he's betting he is smarter than all the teams that use numbers and science and computers and stuff*

 

*note, that last part was a bit sarcastic, but largely true, imo

[Mike Sixel]

The point is guaranteeing $5 million for next year.

You are right that they are not spending any money this year, but they have shown that they will spend up to their budget if they feel they can be competitive.

If some combonation of Hicks/Gibson/Dozier/Arcia/Hendricks/May/Meyer does enough to convince them that they have the young base in place to go ahead and spend money to put some legitimate free agent pieces around them, you'd hate to have $5million of that money wasted on a guy who might be our 7th or 8th best starting pitcher at that point.

 

You really think $5MM, on top of all those guys making the minumum, is going to matter? IF (and I do not think this is true, btw) you are right, and they are willing to spend money to clsoe a hole, and if all those guys are on the roster making the minimum, you think $5MM is going to matter? Not if your premise is true, that they are willing to spend money (which, imo, is not true, and we saw it again this year, and every previous year Ryan was GM).

[Willihammer]

My issue with Correia is the 2nd year primarily.

 

If Correia's ERA+ keeps trending at +10 per year, he'll be above average in that 2nd year!

[Mr. Brooks]

It's an over simplication on my part... However, I can't speak to luck... I can't predict it and I won't declare it but I know it's a large part of the game and that goes for Verlander as well.

 

Basically from 2010 to 2012... Correia has gotten better each year... ERA and WHIP is trending in the right direction. I'm not saying that trend won't come to a complete stop in 2013. I'm just not going to let him ruin my off-season before he actually does fail for us.

 

And if he does fail... Deduno, Devries, Gibson, Meyer, May, Harden and even an improved Blackburn(who knows) are available to step in. So in the end... My issue with Correia is the 2nd year primarily... And maybe that is what it took to get him even if most don't want him.

 

No, you cant predict luck, so if by that you mean maybe he'll get lucky again this year, then sure, maybe he will. That seems like a risky bet to me though. I'd rather bank on talent and hope luck isnt a factor rather than vice versa.

 

As far as Correia demanding a 2nd year to get him, that would be akin to me asking a supermodel on a date, then demanding she pay for dinner.

 

I dont care what Terry Ryan or Dave st. Peter claim, Correia wasnt going to get 2 years from another club. Congrats to his agent for convincing them that he was, but it only takes a simple look at the offseason's transaction log to show that every single pitcher in Correia's tier got 1 year deals, so the market simply was not there for a 2 year deal.

[Mike Sixel]

To be clear, I'm not defending either the signing or the 2nd year, both of which I HATE.

 

I am arguing that the 2nd year does not matter in the grand scheme of TR's approach to building a cheap roster.

[Mr. Brooks]

You really think $5MM, on top of all those guys making the minumum, is going to matter? IF (and I do not think this is true, btw) you are right, and they are willing to spend money to clsoe a hole, and if all those guys are on the roster making the minimum, you think $5MM is going to matter? Not if your premise is true, that they are willing to spend money (which, imo, is not true, and we saw it again this year, and every previous year Ryan was GM).

 

Yes, that $5million could matter. The Twins have shown that they do not, and absolutely will not go over their "51%" model (obviously many years they dont even get to it, but they never go over it), so that $5 million could be the difference between signing an all star caliber player at a position of need, versus settling for just an above average player at that position.

Sure, its unlikely that the stars will all align in that fashion, but why commit money to next year when it was absolutely unnecessary?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wow. It happened.

 

I'm tired of Correia bashing! I no longer have it in me to rip on the guy!

 

It was a bad signing. He's a Twin now. It's time to just knuckle down and hope for the best.

[Mr. Brooks]

To be clear, I'm not defending either the signing or the 2nd year, both of which I HATE.

 

I am arguing that the 2nd year does not matter in the grand scheme of TR's approach to building a cheap roster.

 

The second year might not matter, but there are scenarios in which it could matter.

One of them being, Correia completely stinks this year. We enter July and he has an ERA north of 6.

Now what do you do with him?

Last year with Marquis, it was easy, because he was only on a 1 year deal. Its very rare that you see a guy released with a contract extending beyond the current season, no matter how badly he plays, you are kind of stuck with him.

Which brings us to another scenario in which the second year could prove to be a problem.

Lets say that Meyer and or May completely dominate this year, and show that one or both is ready to compete for a starting spot in the lineup next year.

Lets say Gibson is up by then, and has established himself as one of our best 5, and so has Diamond.

You potentially put yourself in a situation where you feel tied to a guy because he's guaranteed 5 million dollars, and it could deny a spot in the rotation to a young guy, who is actually part of the long term solution, who would be making the league minimum.

There are many ways the 2nd year has the potential to hurt you, many of which are not foreseeable at this time, but could develop themselves as we go forward.

It was just so unnecessary.

[Mike Sixel]

The money is a sunk cost.......the delta in ptiching May or Meyer, and sending down Correia is $500K. If they feel obligated to keep him up because they are paying him, they should be fired. This concept has been understood and taught in business school since the 80s.....

[cmathewson]

At least 14 starting pitchers who are basically in the same class as Correia, as far as talent, age and numbers, signed 1 year deals this offseason.

All but 3 of them signed for less than 5 million dollars.

I'm sorry but i'm just not buying it that the Twins would not be able to get a single one of these pitchers to come here on a 1 year deal, especially if they were willing to overpay by a million or so to get it done.

IMO, whats more likely, is that the Twins have some scout who has convinced them that Correia, despite a 1000 inning sample size, is actually somehow "better" than the rest of the guys in this grouping of FA starting pitchers, so they had their sights set on him from the start.

 

What likely happened is TR offered three or four guys the same or similar deals and told their agents the first guy who signs gets a deal, after which the other offers are null and void. After he made the offers, he said "we're going to sign a pretty darn good pitcher." He was confident one of the three or four would sign, and Correia did.

 

None of those 14 guys are as good as Corriea, at least on a scouting basis. Maybe a few are by the numbers, but you don't pay for past numbers. You pay for future performance. Will Jason Marquis pitch better than Correia this year? After last year, I doubt any Twins scout would say that. Livan? Been there, done that. Go down the list and you have similar stories for each one.

 

You can say you're smarter than the Twins scouts. I personally will not say that. I defer to the professionals. Anyway, it's not that outlandish to say he will have a better year than those 14 suspects. To claim definitively that any one of them will have a better year is even more arrogant than saying you're smarter than Twins scouts. Besides, put it in context. What's a few million or an extra year when we're already $20 million under budget?