The Real Josh Donaldson is Coming

[Ted Schwerzler]

Prior to the 2020 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins signed Josh Donaldson to a four-year deal worth $92 million. Thus far he’s played just 65 games and posted a .788 OPS. The time for more is now.

We can give Donaldson somewhat of a pass in 2020. Sure, he was hurt again, and his gargantuan calves didn’t hold up over what was a shortened season. There were comments made that pregame preparation was hardly ideal, and given the circumstances, that’s more than fair to believe. When he did play, 28 games to be exact, an .842 OPS was produced. While that’s not superstar level, it’s well above average and the 134 OPS+ reflects that mark as well.

Fast forward to 2021 and Minnesota has a third basemen posting a .752 OPS across 37 games, and his OPS+ sits at just 115. Take a look at the slash lines year over year though. A season ago Donaldson batted just .222 but posted a strong .373 OBP and a .469 SLG. This year he’s hitting .236, but the OBP is all the way down to .338 and the SLG sits at just .415. If you need an indicator that batting average is overrated, well, there you go.

At any rate, what’s going on? The short answer is a lot.

From a process perspective, Donaldson is actually improved when it comes to plate discipline. His 26.9% chase rate is basically in line with his career mark, and it’s resulted in a strong 22/21 K/BB. His CSW%, which is a combination of called and swinging strikes, sits at a career low 22.3%. Contact, both in the zone and as a whole, are also way up. So, to summarize the process, we’re in a good place.

Now, how about the results?

Donaldson has long been a hitting savant, and because of it, a banger in the box when the bat meets the ball. That’s still happening for the most part. His 15.2% barrel rate is a career best, and the 35.2% hard hit rate is above the mark posted a season ago. He’s dropped his ground ball rate (good) and increased his line drive rate (also good).

Why in the world aren’t the results better?

There’s a couple of reasons, and as silly as it is, some of it comes down to bad luck. Donaldson owns a miniscule .240 BABIP, which is just four points higher than his average. Not all balls put in play are equal, and obviously expecting this man to be a burner on the basepaths is a losing strategy. What the expected outcomes are, however, tells a much different story.

Fangraphs has the Bringer of Rain’s expected batting average at .282, with an expected SLG of .534, and an xWOBA of .385. Expected outcomes are derived from the assessment of launch angle and exit velocities. In other words, the outcomes that inputs should create.

Some of that could be blamed on the baseball. Prior to the season MLB announced that it would change the playing object with an intention of a deadening effect. An article from The Athletic in early April talked about the drag coefficient on this baseball. Is livelier off the bat, but flight parameters are muted. For a power guy like Donaldson, that should create a net negative effect when it comes to carry over the wall. It explains a rise in barrel percentage, but helps really only on line drives.

Another amount of it could be blamed on bad luck and a small sample size. Donaldson’s radial and launch angle charts both illustrate the previously discussed outputs. We’re still just dealing with a 37-game sample, 123 at bats in total, and what equates to 22% of a full season. So, if there’s good news here, it’s the positive normalization should be coming.

Rocco Baldelli has seen his lineup be rejuvenated by the emergence of both Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver’s return to form. Next could be Donaldson, and for a guy that Minnesota is paying nearly $100 million to anchor the offense, it couldn’t be more necessary.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

View full article

[DMN13]

Let's hope it is just bad luck.  The Twins have certainly had more than their share of that with injuries this year, so if the numbers are telling the truth, then a reversion to the mean would be good to see.  Assuming we believe Garver and Sano are truly coming around, adding Donaldson's bat bat to the mix would be a really good thing.  This is especially true given Kiriloff's solid performance and hoping we get Arraez and Buxton back and hitting.  The lineup could indeed become what we hoped it would.  Let's hope the heat of the summer helps this team get healthy and hit like we expected them to!  But what are we going to do about the bullpen??!

[Thegrin]

He should get rid of the blond hairdo.

[cHawk]

11 hours ago, DMN13 said:

But what are we going to do about the bullpen??!

It’s simple. Make Rogers the closer. Robles, Duffey, Alcala, and Colome the setup guys. Call up Johan Duran sooner rather than later, and add more starter help. Acquire 3 (quality) bullpen arms in July, one of them being a fireball closer. Then, you can release one or two of the original guys who are sucking.

How are we going to acquire three arms at the deadline? I mean, I don’t think it’s against the trade rules. Let’s see here... *typing typing typing click* and here we go. Teams are permitted to trade for three bullpen arms at the deadline. Shouldn’t be a problem.

[Huskertwin]

I ignore most of the new stats and use my eyeballs from watching the games. Donaldson hasn't hit well in the clutch as most of his hits and homers seem to come when the game has already been decided. He has had some bad luck hitting into the shift on balls up the middle. I don't see a deadened ball when Buxton or Refsnyder hit it, to name a couple of players. His average is higher because he walks a lot, but the Twins are not paying all that money him to walk that much. 

I sure hope he does turn the corner soon as it would make a huge difference for the team.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree cHawk.  Just make Rogers the closer.  This "OMG, we can't have a guy close a game on back to back nights" crap is driving me NUTS !  It's like the "magic" 100-pitch count (watching the game, and holding our breath every pitch after 100, just HOPING someone like Berrios doesn't spontaneously COMBUST on pitch #104)!!!  I was thinking the other night that Donaldson is due to start heating up, and yes, some "clutch" hits would do wonders for this team right now. 

[mikelink45]

Sorry, but your statement did not get me to disregard BA.  I like batters to get hits, long hits, short hits, any kind of hit.  BB are great and give you OBP, but they do not advance runners more than one base, they do not lead to misplays and errors.  Give me hits and a good BA!

[puckstopper1]

The first hope is that he can stay healthy.  Secondly he needs to clean up his fielding as I don't believe the Twins anticipated his -dWAR when they signed him.

As for his bat, it seems to play better when others are better around him.  Having a stronger hitter behind him would help (like it would anyone), but as long a Rocco goes with his typical right-left-right line-up, it would be huge boost to Donaldson if Kiriloff, Polanco or perhaps Kepler got *really* hot.

That plus a bit more "luck" on balls in play would be nice!

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This "OMG, we can't have a guy close a game on back to back nights" crap is driving me NUTS !

The front office and coaching staff doesn't believe this at all. Guys pitch back-to-back all the time.

What the Twins haven't been doing is using a single person in the ninth inning and instead base the ninth on matchups, which means the same guy doesn't get the ninth on consecutive days very often.

Here's the bullpen usage as of Wednesday night. As you can see, lots of back-to-backs in there. Robles had back-to-back ninth innings on May 22-23, less than a week ago.

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Robles	27	24	0	13	20	84
Rogers	9	14	0	26	0	49
Duffey	13	15	0	0	15	43
Thielbar	0	18	0	2	16	36
Alcala	17	0	14	0	0	31
Colomé	2	0	8	13	0	23
Farrell	0	0	16	0	0	16
Stashak	0	0	0	0	0	0

[Minny505]

Obviously I am in complete agreement Ted. From looking over about 50 hitters on Statcast (because of a large prize fairy tale league) Donaldson had far and away the largest discrepancy in woba and xwoba. 

His hits will start landing. Very few guys in MLB are peppering the baseball right at fielders with the regularity Donaldson is. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

16 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Obviously I am in complete agreement Ted. From looking over about 50 hitters on Statcast (because of a large prize fairy tale league) Donaldson had far and away the largest discrepancy in woba and xwoba. 

His hits will start landing. Very few guys in MLB are peppering the baseball right at fielders with the regularity Donaldson is. 

Maybe it's time Donaldson takes Wee Willie's advice to heart and "hit 'em where they ain't"

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Sorry, but your statement did not get me to disregard BA.  I like batters to get hits, long hits, short hits, any kind of hit.  BB are great and give you OBP, but they do not advance runners more than one base, they do not lead to misplays and errors.  Give me hits and a good BA!

If you're looking to put the ball in play for the sake of major league players making "misplays and errors" you're doing it wrong.

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, puckstopper1 said:

The first hope is that he can stay healthy.  Secondly he needs to clean up his fielding as I don't believe the Twins anticipated his -dWAR when they signed him.

That has been a problem. Surprising, but a problem

[mikelink45]

50 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

If you're looking to put the ball in play for the sake of major league players making "misplays and errors" you're doing it wrong.

I have been watching the Twins improved fielding and I would say there are plenty of errors and misplays.  I want clean hits, but hitting the ball still has a chance to accomplish something. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I have been watching the Twins improved fielding and I would say there are plenty of errors and misplays.  I want clean hits, but hitting the ball still has a chance to accomplish something. 

There's a balance in there somewhere, depending on the player and their batting profile. You don't want a low power hitter striking out constantly but you also don't want a high power hitter choking up with two strikes just to make (probably bad) contact.

The current problem extends well beyond Josh Donaldson and even the Twins; it's a universal MLB problem. Pitchers have too great an advantage and it feels as if hitters are striving to become too homogenous in the wake of that pitcher advantage. There are fewer ways for hitters to succeed in the modern game so they all start trying to do variations of the same approach. It's not a good combination, which is why I'm heavily in favor of MLB making significant rule/policy changes following the 2021 season.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

If you're looking to put the ball in play for the sake of major league players making "misplays and errors" you're doing it wrong.

It's not exactly controversial to prefer hits over walks. Ideally, you get a hitter who does both.

 

But walks without hits never lasts, won't happen against good pitching, not to mention a walk is worth less than even a single.

 

I want to know a hitter's BA, in addition to his OBP and SLG. 

[twinbythebay]

6 hours ago, Huskertwin said:

I ignore most of the new stats and use my eyeballs from watching the games. Donaldson hasn't hit well in the clutch as most of his hits and homers seem to come when the game has already been decided. He has had some bad luck hitting into the shift on balls up the middle. I don't see a deadened ball when Buxton or Refsnyder hit it, to name a couple of players. His average is higher because he walks a lot, but the Twins are not paying all that money him to walk that much. 

I sure hope he does turn the corner soon as it would make a huge difference for the team.

For what it's worth, the numbers do back up your conclusion here. Donaldson's OPS in high leverage situations (as defined by Fangraphs) is a putrid .293 this season, although that is only based on 11 PAs. His OPS in low and medium leverage situations is .860 and .658, respectively, this season. This is exactly opposite of how he has performed throughout his career (.849/.889/.959 low/medium/high leverage, respectively), so I suspect this will turn around soon as well.

[Platoon]

I noticed the Twins W-L record, hitting, and pitching have improved since we have gotten rid of the pesky Sox, and A’s. Coincidence? Hard to say. 
 

Brocks comments on hitters being too homogeneous is pretty spot on. Correctly or not current emphasis is on launch angles, back spin, and frankly distance. This is fine for maybe 2/3 of the players. The other third see where the money is and try to replicate something that they can’t achieve. IF you don’t have the power to drive the ball, then your attempts at launch angle become what we always called a "can of corn".

Brocks other comment on pitching back to back may be too universal. Rogers history doesn’t seem to indicate that that’s a good plan for him personally. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

47 minutes ago, Platoon said:

Brocks other comment on pitching back to back may be too universal. Rogers history doesn’t seem to indicate that that’s a good plan for him personally. 

Some guys don't do well with back-to-backs, even fewer do well with back-to-back-to-backs.

My statement wasn't that it should be universally employed, only that the Twins don't seem to shy away from it in general. They may avoid it with specific pitchers, I've never really looked closely enough to notice.

[mikelink45]

18 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There's a balance in there somewhere, depending on the player and their batting profile. You don't want a low power hitter striking out constantly but you also don't want a high power hitter choking up with two strikes just to make (probably bad) contact.

The current problem extends well beyond Josh Donaldson and even the Twins; it's a universal MLB problem. Pitchers have too great an advantage and it feels as if hitters are striving to become too homogenous in the wake of that pitcher advantage. There are fewer ways for hitters to succeed in the modern game so they all start trying to do variations of the same approach. It's not a good combination, which is why I'm heavily in favor of MLB making significant rule/policy changes following the 2021 season.

I agree that things need to change, but we are in a conundrum that is driven by the statistics and how they are interpreted.   I remember in the fifties when the mantra was Home Run hitters drive Cadillacs.  Even then the long ball was the driving force, but no one knew how to maximize it.  We still have plenty of mediocre pitchers (just look at the Twins staff) so the hitters need to adjust to the fielding positions and who is on the mound.  It is almost more psychological that physical at this point.   

The HR really got its power boost in the PED era and now instead of peds we have launch angle.  Although our modern emphasis on power shows how ridiculous the PED era stats are.

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

On 5/29/2021 at 8:24 AM, mikelink45 said:

The HR really got its power boost in the PED era and now instead of peds we have launch angle.  

 

This is one aspect of understanding analytics that frustrates me. We have *always* had launch angle and exit velocity. There are now tools to measure it, and understand what optimal outcomes look like. Ignoring that ability leaves production on the table. It's not that knowing launch angle and exit velocities is a groundbreaking alteration in approach. It is something that can be combined with the idea that base hits come through the air, and trying to figure out the best process to drive consistent results.

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

This is one aspect of understanding analytics that frustrates me. We have *always* had launch angle and exit velocity. There are now tools to measure it, and understand what optimal outcomes look like. Ignoring that ability leaves production on the table. It's not that knowing launch angle and exit velocities is a groundbreaking alteration in approach. It is something that can be combined with the idea that base hits come through the air, and trying to figure out the best process to drive consistent results.

I think it's nothing more complicated than an incredible level of inertia in "the Book" of strategy. The game today is vastly different from the one 150 years ago. First base was once considered a defense-first position, fielding errors were prevalent, the ball was softer, the athletes were part-timers who had other jobs in the off-season, sore-armed pitchers were a mystery that they tried to avoid by "pitching in the pinch". Slowly the game evolved, but the strategies remained entrenched - ground balls were still prized and an "uppercut" swing was generally derided as showboating. When someone like Bill James in the 1980s used evidence-based logic that walks, for instance, were undervalued, or that a certain percentage of fly balls were destined to go out, there was tremendous pushback from the old guard, even if he was merely reinforcing what some of that old guard (e.g. Earl Weaver) was saying.  The ability to generate evidence now dwarfs what was available to James, and the strategies reflect that.

[Azviking101]

Seems more like he's loafing around because he's making big bucks now. This entire situation will set the Twins back to the Terry Ryan days once again. Finally they pay big money and this is the bum they get. AAA players would provide more value simply because they know how to hustle and won't be injured 24/7.

 

Sadly, the Twins will not be back next year. It's going to be a long time before they're good again

[Dodecahedron]

https://deadspin.com/twins-josh-donaldson-says-pitchers-are-cheating-and-1847009296

My first thought about this is what type of retaliation will Josh face from pitchers and umpires for speaking up?

If people think he is not hitting well enough now, darker days are coming.