7 No Hitters? Why is this happening?

[Teflon]

Baseball just keeps getting more mutated... 

Also - why now, after a 100 years of defacing baseballs with foreign substances, are pitchers suddenly able to increase their spin rates 10%? Has there been some exponential advancement in the foreign substance department? If so, why aren't the Twins using it?

[AceWrigley]

I think the ability to measure spin rates effectively gives us the opportunity to focus and analyze them and find ways to increase them if we choose to do so. It's the tools, man.

[Rosterman]

Amazing with the 100-pitch count, and most pitchers barely able to get to the sixth inning...at least in Twins land.

[Teflon]

Here's an interesting YouTube video on the correlation of spin rate improvement and the use of  foreign substances:

Gerrit Cole is Cheating and MLB Wants To Stop Him

[Platoon]

Why is this happening?  Could it be a generation of hitters fed the mantra of hitting the bottom of the ball to increase backspin. And carry? A generation of hitters sold on the "offense is 4 bags at a time theory"? Or hitters that think think making contact in a pitchers count is for weenies? Or, all of the above? 

[mac098]

I think its a combination. ESPN had an amazing article here: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31454952/how-k-became-most-destructive-letter-major-league-baseball
In this article they break down how the game has changed. Tim Kirkjian (author), Reggie Jackson, Mark Teixeira, Nolan Ryan, and Ryan Zimmerman all break down how the game has changed. They go on saying that the game has changed by teams using more analytics than ever before. Also, stated in the article are that pitchers really don't know how "pitch" properly. 

Stated in the article is also that hitters don't have multiple swings, depending on the count they have. They only have one swing. A swing that sends the ball well over 400 ft. A swing that is being hindered by the players not developing into a multi-faceted player. A swing that is only used for one thing: Money. It is widely thought that if you aren't hitting HR's and getting a ton of RBI's, you aren't winning games, which in turn means you aren't getting paid. The whole analytics aspect of hitting has forced hitter to become too predictable and only caring about hitting HR's. Which has helped pitchers out tremendously. All the pitchers have to do is avoid the hitters swing path that they have worked on over and over again, they will strike the hitter out. This is why you see players with 3-4 K's every other game. Look at Sano, Garver and Jeffers, just to point out a few, strike out rate. At one point the 3 of them were striking out at almost 50% of their AB's. In today's game a strike out is seen just as a regular out. Strike outs are seen as its better than hitting into a DP, which sometimes it is, but that shouldn't be the mentality the player goes into the AB with. 

As a Twins fan, we are seeing this day-in and day-out. The Twins are one of the worst at leaving runners on base. Usually that does correlate into a horrible avg. w/ RISP. Because they have the mentality of the Bomba Squad, the players believe that they need to hit HR's to score. 

[Nine of twelve]

It's not necessary to understand why the game is becoming more pitcher-dominant, but for the good of the game I think it's time to try to rebalance things. We need fewer K's, fewer BB's and fewer HR's. Lower the mound, move the rubber farther from home, soften the ball, and enlarge the strike zone.

[Nick Nelson]

Here's what I don't get: In 2019 offense was off the charts. Multiple teams broke the all-time home run record. So it's not like what's happening is just "the modern game." It's like, very specific to this year. The deadened baseball might explain some small portion of it.

Part of me thinks it has to be some weird ripple effect from the pandemic season. Pitchers adapted better than hitters? Maybe because they saved so many innings on their arms last year? I dunno. 

[Vanimal46]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Here's what I don't get: In 2019 offense was off the charts. Multiple teams broke the all-time home run record. So it's not like what's happening is just "the modern game." It's like, very specific to this year. The deadened baseball might explain some small portion of it.

Part of me thinks it has to be some weird ripple effect from the pandemic season. Pitchers adapted better than hitters? Maybe because they saved so many innings on their arms last year? I dunno. 

Or rampant cheating, like every oddity in baseball over the years.

[mac098]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Here's what I don't get: In 2019 offense was off the charts. Multiple teams broke the all-time home run record. So it's not like what's happening is just "the modern game." It's like, very specific to this year. The deadened baseball might explain some small portion of it.

Part of me thinks it has to be some weird ripple effect from the pandemic season. Pitchers adapted better than hitters? Maybe because they saved so many innings on their arms last year? I dunno. 

In the article I stated above, there was a portion that stated it was easier for the pitchers to simulate real game situation when doing bullpen sessions and during practice. I mean, for hitters, they aren't facing 90 mph fastball during BP on a field. IF and thats a big IF hitters are facing the 90 mph fastball, its in the tunnel. They aren't facing live pitching with the velocity and location change that a normal pitcher would give them. I don't know if this is a portion of the effect that or not, but it is possible that this could be causing a shift in gameplay and the hitter's attack.

As for the pitchers adapting better from a shortened season. Maybe. Hard to tell because from what I saw, the pitchers knew that it was going to be a sprint last season, so (I'm assuming) they chose open up on all cylinders last season. And from what I've been seeing this season, a lot of pitchers are struggling outside of household names. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Here's what I don't get: In 2019 offense was off the charts. Multiple teams broke the all-time home run record. So it's not like what's happening is just "the modern game." It's like, very specific to this year. The deadened baseball might explain some small portion of it.

Part of me thinks it has to be some weird ripple effect from the pandemic season. Pitchers adapted better than hitters? Maybe because they saved so many innings on their arms last year? I dunno. 

Homers were off the charts in 2019, but batting average was still low (although up slightly from 2018) and of course K% was at an all-time high (since broken). The underlying trends were still there, perhaps exacerbated by the changing baseball.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=1961&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1961-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=1,d&page=1_61

[Eris]

Several factors that benefit the pitchers. The quest to hit home runs has given MLB a lot of dead pull hitters focusing on launch angles.
 

This has resulted in decreased batting averages and increased strikeouts. Both of which will statistically contribute to an increased number of no hitters.  Defensive shifts and high 4 seam FB also contribute to neutralizing dead pull hitters. (See Garver and Kepler)

Also, the no hitters are not random. From the NY Post:  “The six no-hitters have been at the hands of just three teams, twice each: the Rangers, Mariners and Indians. Cleveland and Seattle are 29th and 30th in team batting average, while Texas is 14th. It’s possible they are the outliers — at least until the next no-hitter is thrown.”

One of the obvious solutions to the no hitters is to reward players who hit to all fields for high averages.  (Morneau, Maurer, Puckett, Cruz) In the minors, MLB is experimenting with banning of defensive shifts.  This is IMHO the wrong approach as we are rewarding one dimensional hitting.  

This is one of the reasons I am excited to see Kirilloff and Larnach. They have the potential to be .300 hitters and can hit to all fields with power. 

[mac098]

7 minutes ago, Eris said:

Several factors that benefit the pitchers. The quest to hit home runs has given MLB a lot of dead pull hitters focusing on launch angles.
 

This has resulted in decreased batting averages and increased strikeouts. Both of which will statistically contribute to an increased number of no hitters.  Defensive shifts and high 4 seam FB also contribute to neutralizing dead pull hitters. (See Garver and Kepler)

Also, the no hitters are not random. From the NY Post:  “The six no-hitters have been at the hands of just three teams, twice each: the Rangers, Mariners and Indians. Cleveland and Seattle are 29th and 30th in team batting average, while Texas is 14th. It’s possible they are the outliers — at least until the next no-hitter is thrown.”

One of the obvious solutions to the no hitters is to reward players who hit to all fields for high averages.  (Morneau, Maurer, Puckett, Cruz) In the minors, MLB is experimenting with banning of defensive shifts.  This is IMHO the wrong approach as we are rewarding one dimensional hitting.  

This is one of the reasons I am excited to see Kirilloff and Larnach. They have the potential to be .300 hitters and can hit to all fields with power. 

I agree. Pitchers do have the upper-hand because they know that hitters are not going to change their approach. If they're a pull hitter, they will always be a pull hitter until they cannot catch up to the pitch anymore. 

As you mentioned before, Kepler is struggling because teams are starting to figure him out. They know that if a ball is tossed middle-in, it is going to be sent over the right field wall. So how to you counter that? Throw away, whether that be high, middle, or low. And if he beats you that way, then so be it. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that hitters are too predictable and not willing to adapt to what they see from the defense (outside of a few). 

I agree that eliminating shifts would hurt the game. It removes the coaching aspect of the game, as did the requirement for relievers to face 3 batter or finish the inning. If a team is shifting to have 3 (or 4) on the right side of the diamond against...lets say Joey Gallo, it is up to Gallo to be able to recognize this and adjust. Comes back an old saying, "Hit 'em where they ain't." If a player cannot adjust to team shifting on him, then (in my opinion) he has a hole in his swing. 

[Taildragger8791]

I don't know how hitters can justify strikeouts as "just another out" but at the same time teams are going for strikeouts at all costs on the pitching side because that's the best outcome for any at bat. No damage can happen on a strikeout. Even in a potential double play situation the pitcher will take the strikeout every time because it doesn't advance a runner, put pressure on the defense, create fluky plays, etc.

I have a hard time believing that avoiding double plays by striking out vs putting the ball in play could possibly balance out. What percentage of balls in play in that situation create a double play vs a single unproductive out vs a single productive out? At what rate do errors get induced?

[Dodecahedron]

Deadened baseball.  The pendulum has swung too far the other direction.

[Mike Sixel]

4 of them came against teams who don't care to field hitters or not, as long as they make tv money.....so there's that. Well, Seattle kept down their best prospect to get him "more ready" which miraculously happened to be when they got another year of control over his pay.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

I don't know how hitters can justify strikeouts as "just another out" but at the same time teams are going for strikeouts at all costs on the pitching side because that's the best outcome for any at bat. No damage can happen on a strikeout. Even in a potential double play situation the pitcher will take the strikeout every time because it doesn't advance a runner, put pressure on the defense, create fluky plays, etc.

There's definitely an imbalance in the costs/benefits of strikeouts.

For pitchers, you list the benefits that drive them to pursue strikeouts as a top priority, and there isn't really any downside to that approach for them.

For batters? They'd likely have to sacrifice power to try avoiding strikeouts, and the trade off isn't worth it (especially facing pitchers geared toward maximum strikeout ability).

[Eris]

Going Deep: Early Returns on Elevated Four-Seam Fastballs - Pitcher List

This is my opinion and I have no data to support.  Another factor that likely influences the current pitching advantage is that the launch angle / extreme flyball craze started in around 2015 and 2016.  It took pitchers and coaches awhile to respond to the change.  The effective strategy was throw high 4 seam FB.  But historically, pitchers were not taught to throw high in the zone fastballs, they have been taught to do the opposite which is to throw low fastballs.  Therefore, it took awhile to learn (not sure if learn is the best descriptor) to throw high fastballs so they minimized the risk of missing down from the intended high in the zone target (as missing down would be a meatball).  Now pitchers have had about 3-4 years to practice/perfect their high 4 seam FB.  

Two people who benefited from launch angles and extreme pull hitting are Brian Dozier and Daniel Murphy.  The both had two years with a surging ISO and that was it.  They are both out of baseball now.  Dozier is 34 and Murphy is 36.

Kepler had a one year surge in ISO (2019). 

 

 

 

[Teflon]

Robert Arthur at Baseball Prospectus posted an article today speculating that A Lighter Baseball May Be Behind The Strikeout Increase.  He states that the MLB, in reengineering the baseball to be less lively off bats for 2021 didn't consider how the changes would translate to pitching dynamics. In addition to the ball being lighter, MLB pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell are also claiming the seams on this year's baseballs feel different enabling increased spin on pitches.

Arthur goes on to write that since 2018 lateral movement on curveballs and sliders have increased 25% and 20%, respectively although he notes there was a change in MLB camera tracking systems in 2020.