Game Recap: White Sox 9, Twins 3

[Cap'n Piranha]

I feel like we have about three more weeks before the FO, if they're smart, will go in to full-on rebuild mode.  Commit completely to it now, and you might be able to shave a year or two off the duration.  Starting June 1, assuming no improvement in play, here's what I'd like to see happen

• Kiriloff at first every day (assuming he can return--full health in 2022 should be the priority)
• Arraez at second every day
• Gordon at short every day
• Polanco at third every day
• Larnach in left every day
• Rooker in right every day

The Twins should eat the salary on all of the following players in order to trade them--if no trade can be made, they should be DFA'd; Donaldson, Simmons, Cruz, Colome

Buxton should also be traded as soon as he is healthy, or you get an offer you're happy with.

Rogers, Duffey, and Robles should all be traded as soon as you get a decent offer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

I don't see how you even fix this team for next year without opening up the checkbook big time. You'll need to sign half a bullpen, a catcher, a SS, a 4th OF, and two SP. Then probably overpay on extensions for Buxton/Berrios and find a way to clear the $25 million from Polanco, Kepler, & Sano. Since almost every item on that list is nigh impossible for this team it leaves almost no choice but to sell and retool. What a bummer.

They may have internal bullpen options, we just don't know yet because instead of having played 30-35 games, the Saints have played... seven.

Thanks again for that, MLB.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I feel like we have about three more weeks before the FO, if they're smart, will go in to full-on rebuild mode.  Commit completely to it now, and you might be able to shave a year or two off the duration.  Starting June 1, assuming no improvement in play, here's what I'd like to see happen

• Kiriloff at first every day (assuming he can return--full health in 2022 should be the priority)
• Arraez at second every day
• Gordon at short every day
• Polanco at third every day
• Larnach in left every day
• Rooker in right every day

The Twins should eat the salary on all of the following players in order to trade them--if no trade can be made, they should be DFA'd; Donaldson, Simmons, Cruz, Colome

Buxton should also be traded as soon as he is healthy, or you get an offer you're happy with.

Rogers, Duffey, and Robles should all be traded as soon as you get a decent offer.

I don't see any need to rebuild yet and there's no real benefit in making that decision on June 1st versus July 15th.

I agree that Larnach and Kirilloff should continue to receive playing time but quibble with the others. Sano should still receive playing time, at least in a platoon, until he shows he can't hit at all or shows life again. Polanco is not a third baseman, he doesn't have the arm for it. Besides, what are you going to do, bench Donaldson in the meantime? That makes no sense. Rooker doesn't deserve playing time over Kepler and I'd argue that he hasn't shown he deserves playing time in Minneapolis at all. "Different" is not automatically "better", particularly when speaking about the defensive butchery of Rooker over the quality defense of Kepler.

And calling for the DFA of quality veterans is the ultimate knee-jerk reaction. Donaldson will be paid by the Twins for over 2.5 more seasons, you really want him to go be productive for another team while the Twins foot the $70m bill? That's really foolish, no team would *ever* do that.

[Vanimal46]

I can’t see a full tear down rebuild, no matter how bad things get in May or June. The only player with a contract beyond this year that I think they would pay money to trade away is Sano. It feels like we’re ready to move on from him very soon, and give Kirilloff the full time gig at 1B. 
 

Falvey should definitely gather info around the league what Berrios and Buxton’s worth is with 1.5 years left on their contract. My assumption is we will view them as more valuable in 2022 than the return we would get and keep them. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

I can’t see a full tear down rebuild, no matter how bad things get in May or June. The only player with a contract beyond this year that I think they would pay money to trade away is Sano. It feels like we’re ready to move on from him very soon, and give Kirilloff the full time gig at 1B. 
 

Falvey should definitely gather info around the league what Berrios and Buxton’s worth is with 1.5 years left on their contract. My assumption is we will view them as more valuable in 2022 than the return we would get and keep them. 

I think Berrios could bring quite a haul but with Buxton being injured *again* and his likely return not that long before the trade deadline, I'm skeptical of how much teams would give for him coming off yet another injury.

[MMMordabito]

29 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I feel like we have about three more weeks before the FO, if they're smart, will go in to full-on rebuild mode.  Commit completely to it now, and you might be able to shave a year or two off the duration.  Starting June 1, assuming no improvement in play, here's what I'd like to see happen

• Kiriloff at first every day (assuming he can return--full health in 2022 should be the priority)
• Arraez at second every day
• Gordon at short every day
• Polanco at third every day
• Larnach in left every day
• Rooker in right every day

The Twins should eat the salary on all of the following players in order to trade them--if no trade can be made, they should be DFA'd; Donaldson, Simmons, Cruz, Colome

Buxton should also be traded as soon as he is healthy, or you get an offer you're happy with.

Rogers, Duffey, and Robles should all be traded as soon as you get a decent offer.

I agree with the meat of this suggestion, but I think it's far too aggressive for the Twins.

I don't understand why you would DFA Cruz or Simmons on June 1, when they will likely command at least some value at the end of July.  Trying to move them in between those dates is fine, but doing something so aggressive just to get Nick Gordon another 100 PAs probably isn't worth it.

Donaldson's contract is too big to move, IMO.  DFA'ing Donaldson just isn't going to happen.  I think he and Maeda are the two vets that are going to stick around.

[darwin22]

2 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

This should have happened a couple of weeks ago, after losing in Oakland and Seattle. Now it's too late and there's only a shell of a team (mentally and medically) to try to roust.

I agree with you 100%, but I really don't know who or where the leadership on this team is?  I would think it would or should come from Cruz or Donaldson, but I don't hear anything from them.  It certainly isn't coming from Baldelli.

[darwin22]

2 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

This should have happened a couple of weeks ago, after losing in Oakland and Seattle. Now it's too late and there's only a shell of a team (mentally and medically) to try to roust.

I agree with you 100%, but I really don't know who or where the leadership on this team is?  I would think it would or should come from Cruz or Donaldson, but I don't hear anything from them.  It certainly isn't coming from Baldelli.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Not only are we looking pretty futile, it's hard to see a way forward here. I've been one of the voices saying call up Law!! Call up Larnach! Send down Jeffers!, etc. it's becoming increasingly clear that bringing up guys from AAA is not likely to be the answer other than some help at the margins. Kirilloff looks like he could be a long-term Lineup fixture if he is not hurt, Thorpe looks like he could develop as a starter if we can make room for him in the rotation, I still think the Dobnak can be decent to good number 4 or number 5 guy in the rotation, and maybe Jeffers can get it back together. That looks like it's about it. At the major-league level, it looks like Polanco is getting back to his old self and we do have some other guys who are solid, but Kepler and Sano have regressed horribly and show no real signs of improvement (particularly Sano), and age may be finally catching up to Cruz - still a good hitter, but no longer able to carry the team for stretches the way he could at one time. Maeda is pitching like the number 3/4 starter he was the Dodgers, rather than the ace we thought we might've lucked into last year, and Berrios, Pineda and Happ are all competent starters but none of them are true number 1 guys and only Berrios is really even a solid #2. The bullpen is a disaster. So what we have here is a team with about two thirds of a lineup at best, a middle and back end of the rotation but no top end, and about one third of a competent bullpen. All this, and not much down below to provide immediate help.

So what do you do? Much as I hate to say it, I'm beginning to think were doing pretty much everything we can short of trading guys. And that's what's so depressing. We have to play Garver at catcher because he is the best we have and we've got to sort through Jeffers and Rortvedt to see if we have a competent 2nd catcher. Rortvedt simply can't hit at all, so it's probably time to give Jeffers another shot or maybe Tellis. They called up Larnach and Kirilloff, and each of them should play every day when healthy at the expense of Cave, Kepler and Sano. I'm not sure what to think of Garlick as a longer-term piece and maybe it is time to demote Cave and give Broxton a shot, but not at the expense of at bats for Kirilloff or Larnach. I would love to see Gordon get a shot but frankly middle infield hasn't been the problem in the short term. I think his shot comes in July or later after we trade Simmons for low-level prospects. I would like to see Andrew Vasquez get a shot in the bullpen and Alcala get more high leverage innings, but there we're stuck with hoping that Duffy, Rogers and Colome simply do better to really see much improvement. Stashack needs to go back down and try to re-find a groove and it's hard to see how Theilbar is really any part of the solution. I would also give Robles some higher leverage innings, not because I see him as a long-term solution, but I see him as a potential trade piece in another month to a team desperate for relief pitching. It's also probably time to take some of our better starting prospects and try them in relief this year as necessary.

Once these steps are taken, time to work the phones. I think Simmons, Robles, Colome (another guy we're going to have to get back to high leverage innings to improve his trade value), and Happ are all viable or potentially viable trade pieces for decent prospects. I would include Kepler and Sano as trade pieces but their value is so low right now and the potential is still there, so I think we have to keep them but limit their playing time for now. It would be great if we can send those two to AAA to re-find their stroke but I know that service time and options prevent that from happening. I would also seriously consider trading Donaldson  and Cruz but you would have to get a significant return to make either trade worthwhile and I don't really think that significant return is out there, especially for Cruz. I would not trade Buxton unless you're firmly convinced he cannot be re-signed. I think you go ahead and make the higher financial commitment to both Berrios and Buxton if you need to to get them signed and take the risk on whether Buxton can ever stay healthy.

I realize that the result of a plan like this is that an 80 win season is probably our best hope for and even that may be out of reach. I frankly think we're already there. My view would be to use this year as a way to set up next year. I think the lineup as soon as possible this year and for next year needs to have Kirilloff and Larnach as everyday players, probably needs Arraez in the infield rather than the outfield playing either 3rd base if there's a Donaldson trade or 2nd base there's a Simmons trade with Polanco moving back over to short, and with a Kepler/Garlick platoon in right field or with Kepler in centerfield if Buxton is hurt or traded. I think Thorpe and Dobnak need to be in next year's rotation, so they need to get some MLB starts this year, and I would love to see 3-5 starts apiece from Duran and Balzovic to at least check on where they are. We are going to need to transition to a younger, hungrier team. This team simply isn't good enough to really contend and we are not going to be willing to pay enough to attract veteran ballplayers to augment this group, and because veterans want to go where they have a chance to win and right now this team does not give them that chance. We may not have the right manager or stand for that kind of the team. My view should keep Baldelli, get a different hitting coach, and stay with the pitching coach.

In short, time to punt on this year's win/loss record as the measurement of success and switch to player development as the primary goal. It sucks given our preseason expectations but I think this is the reality of where we are.

[darwin22]

Although its a proven FACT that our gas can of a bullpen (thanks for nothing Falvey) has been a legitimate cause of this train wreck of a season, as others have noted-----our abysmal offense is just as guilty for this dumpster fire of a season.

This collection of guys with bats in their hands (can't call them hitters except for Buxton and maybe Kirilloff) have now scored 3 RUNS OR LESS in 20 of 33 games.  That is 60.6% of our games.  Any shock that our record in those 20 games is 3-17?  Not sure how that compares to other MLB teams as all (I'm assuming) have sub .500 records when scoring 3 runs or less, but I'm guessing quite a few have better than a .150 winning percentage.

For anyone wondering, I took the time to review our many runners LOB we've had in our 21 losses.  Total came to 160, which was not as bad as I thought it would be.  However, looking inside the numbers reveals just how awful this offense is. In 6 losses, Twins had 5 or fewer LOB while scoring a combined 14 runs/ 2.33 runs per game.  In 10 other losses, Twins stranded 8 or more runners.  For those keeping track, 44 LOB in our last 4 losses, in which we've scored a TOTAL of 10 runs.

All of this, of course, tracks to our complete FAILURE producing runs with RISP.  

I did the math and its UGLY.  I mean U-G-L-Y!

170 RISP in our 21 losses.  

An "average" of 8.095 RISP per game, which I'm guessing compares favorably with teams that winning or close to .500.

# of hits in those 170ABs= 27.   Yes.....a measly 27 for a putrid .159 average.

This goes a long way in understanding Baldelli's infamous quote the other day in DET when we went 1-14 with RISP leaving 16 on base:  "Well, I thought we had really good ABs until we got runners in scoring position."

Enough said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, darwin22 said:

It certainly isn't coming from Baldelli.

Ugh. You have absolutely no evidence this is the case, which is what makes evaluating a manager from the outside so bloody difficult. Baldelli isn't a screamer and that's a good thing but fans believe that screaming leads to better outcomes for whatever reason (stop watching sports movies and glorifying the likes of Bobby Knight, if your boss acted that way, you'd go find a different ****ing job ASAP).

In both 2019 and 2020, the Twins were reeling late in the season, blowing and ultimately losing the division lead in both seasons. They rallied both times and won the division.

Was Baldelli competent in those seasons and incompetent this season? Or does his influence not matter?

Or, more likely, is this a really complicated situation that can't be evaluated by comments in newspaper articles and snippets of Zoom conferences?

Don't conflate anger/outrage with good management or leadership.

[jkcarew]

It’s amazing how we still are influenced in terms of context by 2019. 2019 is over and it’s never going to happen again. Not just for the Twins, but for the league.

In the context of 2021, the Twins offense is fine. Not great, certainly not ideal, but fine. Easily in the top 20% (or better) in numbers that matter (even in K%, the Twins aren’t near leading the league; R/G top half of AL) And they’re likely to get better given the return (maybe?) of some players and as RISP/clutch results move toward norms.

Twins three biggest problems...

1. Relief Pitching

2. Relief Pitching

3. Starting Pitching. (like the offense, SP HAS to be a strength as it was expected to be...and hasn’t been)

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Berrios could bring quite a haul but with Buxton being injured *again* and his likely return not that long before the trade deadline, I'm skeptical of how much teams would give for him coming off yet another injury.

I definitely agree Berrios would bring back a better return, but wouldn't dealing him essentially be signaling the beginning of the rebuild neither of us think is necessary at this moment? The Twins would have to replace 4/5 of their starting rotation for next season, not to mention fill in the the talent gap left by Berrios' departure. I don't have much faith that this FO can adequately fill three spots for next year; losing Berrios would seemingly make that issue insurmountable. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I definitely agree Berrios would bring back a better return, but wouldn't dealing him essentially be signaling the beginning of the rebuild neither of us think is necessary at this moment? The Twins would have to replace 4/5 of their starting rotation for next season, not to mention fill in the the talent gap left by Berrios' departure. I don't have much faith that this FO can adequately fill three spots for next year; losing Berrios would seemingly make that issue insurmountable. 

Oh, I’m definitely not in favor of trading Berrios for the reason you just stated, I was just pointing out his value is probably quite high right now. 

[cHawk]

55 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

In the context of 2021, the Twins offense is fine. Not great, certainly not ideal, but fine. Easily in the top 20% (or better) in numbers that matter (even in K%, the Twins aren’t near leading the league; R/G top half of AL) And they’re likely to get better given the return (maybe?) of some players and as RISP/clutch results move toward norms.

FINEEEE??!!!!!?!

You’re saying our offense is FINE?

We haven’t been just “not great” in clutch situations, we’ve been downright putrid. The way the Twins hit with RISP is completely unacceptable for any team. It has scored 3 or fewer runs in 20/33 games thus far. That isn’t going to work, no matter how good your pitching is.

[rv78]

Given the current state of play there isn't anyone on the roster I wouldn't consider trading. Unfortunately many of the players we should trade won't bring a bag of peanuts in return. Even Buxton would be discounted because he's made of glass. Berrios is the best option for a good return with Maeda and Pineda not far behind. The rest of the Pitchers have done nothing to prove they are worth keeping or getting anything in return. Looking at the core of veteran Hitters you could argue almost everyone has some underlying issue that just doesn't make them look very attractive to other teams. Garver, Sano, Kepler can't hit. Polanco and Arraez are liabilities on the field. Simmons is only here 1 year. Donaldson has a monster contract that no one else would want. Buxton is only a part-time player. Cruz is slowing down. As for Cave, Astudillo, Garlick, and the other bench types, they are a dime a dozen that you can get anywhere.

[Mike Sixel]

Offense is DOWN across the league. The Twins are median in runs scored.....not that you can peanut butter them this early in the season, but over time it should even out. Not that median is good, btw.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, cHawk said:

FINEEEE??!!!!!?!

You’re saying our offense is FINE?

We haven’t been just “not great” in clutch situations, we’ve been downright putrid. The way the Twins hit with RISP is completely unacceptable for any team. It has scored 3 or fewer runs in 20/33 games thus far. That isn’t going to work, no matter how good your pitching is.

It depends on the context of the issue and how each of us views the ability to replicate putrid results in specific innings or situations going forward.

Overall, the Twins offense is pretty good and I happen to believe that while they may be built to fail more often in important situations, what we're witnessing is beyond anything I've ever seen or read about in baseball, which tells me it's at least in part some really terrible luck in sequencing.

But we can argue the details of what that means all day long, I certainly don't know where they "should" be given their talent level, only that they're better than their record in 2021.

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Offense is DOWN across the league. The Twins are median in runs scored.....not that you can peanut butter them this early in the season, but over time it should even out. Not that median is good, btw.....

Runs scored is irrelevant when it comes to this club. A few 12 run explosions here or there make the run differential much higher. And most of those 12 run explosions, they're padding their batting stats in garbage time.

[cHawk]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It depends on the context of the issue and how each of us views the ability to replicate putrid results in specific innings or situations going forward.

Overall, the Twins offense is pretty good and I happen to believe that while they may be built to fail more often in important situations, what we're witnessing is beyond anything I've ever seen or read about in baseball, which tells me it's at least in part some really terrible luck in sequencing.

But we can argue the details of what that means all day long, I certainly don't know where they "should" be given their talent level, only that they're better than their record in 2021.

That is true. My point isn't that it IS bad (it shouldn't be, at least), but it HAS BEEN quite bad thus far. (and it has)

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, cHawk said:

Runs scored is irrelevant when it comes to this club. A few 12 run explosions here or there make the run differential much higher. And most of those 12 run explosions, they're padding their batting stats in garbage time.

Isn't that true of every club? 

[cHawk]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Isn't that true of every club? 

But most other clubs are winning ballgames, the Twins are not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

21 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

They may have internal bullpen options, we just don't know yet because instead of having played 30-35 games, the Saints have played... seven.

Thanks again for that, MLB.

A couple things:

1. Seems like it was a reasonable decision to delay the minor league season in 2021. Look at all the protocols and hoops that teams and facilities had to jump through -- it would have been a lot to ask organizations to simultaneously make those arrangements for minor league parks while spring training was going on, and to have them ready around MLB opening day.

2. All other teams had to deal with it too.

3. How much does it matter? Yes, pen reinforcements often come from the minor leagues, but not always. The Twins added 3 effective relievers in 2020 without any minor league season (Wisler, Alcala, Thielbar). Ryne Harper made the team for opening day in 2019. The far bigger problem is that most every reliever on the MLB roster has performed poorly in 2021.

I don't see how MLB is particularly culpable for this issue the Twins are facing.

[AceWrigley]

22 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Guys who can't stay healthy in their 20's don't suddenly become durable in their 30's.

Paul Molitor.

[AceWrigley]

19 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Or, more likely, is this a really complicated situation that can't be evaluated by comments in newspaper articles and snippets of Zoom conferences?

Lollygaggers.