Did Colomé Throwing 2 Innings Hint at Baldelli's 2021 Bullpen Strategy?

[Matt Braun]

On Wednesday, Alex Colomé was asked to get six outs, something he had not done since 2017. The decision raises questions, specifically why did Rocco Baldelli decide, with a reasonably rested bullpen, to use his closer for two innings?Before getting into that, the decision by Baldelli to send his closer out for a second inning of work was not actually the result of a new philosophical change. Taylor Rogers made nine different appearances in which he threw at least two innings during the 2019 season.

 

The reason for this was because the bullpen was made up of bubble gum, paper clips, and lost dreams. Also, Matt Magill. The rest of the team was performing well but the lack of reliable arms outside of Rogers had pushed Baldelli into getting creative with his relief ace. This forced a number of occasions where Rogers threw it back to the days of Goose Gossage and Lee Smith. Eventually, Tyler Duffey would prove himself to be worthwhile, and the additions of Sergio Romo and name redacted gave Baldelli the proper amount of firepower that had been lacking in the first half (just one of Rogers’ two innings outings would come after the month of July). Nonetheless, Baldelli at one point had adhered to an old-school mentality regarding his reliever use.

 

This is not the 2019 Twins, though. While that team lacked trustworthy arms early in the season, the 2021 Twins are seemingly overflowing with them. The aforementioned Colomé and Rogers along with Hansel Robles all had at least 20 saves in 2019. Duffey, while deficient in the save department, has the sixth-lowest FIP among all relievers in MLB since 2019 (min. 80 innings). This is all a somewhat long-winded way of saying that Baldelli did not really need to use Colomé for two innings. So why did he?

 

Now, Rogers, Duffey, and Robles all did pitch in the previous game, but even the most progressive manager would not use that fact as a deterrent. Relievers can still be effective on no days' rest after all. However the most crucial name on that list is Rogers. His struggles as a reliever pitching without rest have been well documented. His career ERA with zero days rest is 4.01 while with one and two days rest his career ERA is 3.26 and 3.22 respectively. Baldelli understands this and knew that Rogers on that particular day would likely not be at his usual self. Avoiding using him would be ideal.

 

With a good deal of certainty, I can say that Baldelli’s decision to use Colomé for two innings was an aid to Rogers. He understood that his other best relief choice in that situation simply lacks the ability to be consistently great in back-to-back games and opted instead to use his next best reliever in a multi-inning role in order to best guarantee a victory.

 

I believe there is a second reason behind this decision but I will admit that this one is more conjecture than anything. We know that teams will struggle in 2021 to procure the innings total needed from their starters to finish a full 162 game season after the shortened 2020 year capped how often pitchers could throw. However, there may be a similar shortcoming in the bullpen.

 

Relievers ultimately do not throw as many innings as starters but they just as well were not able to reach their totals from previous years. They simply have not been able to throw the 60+ stressful innings that they are accustomed to. Baldelli knows this as well. His solution to this problem looks to be to consolidate the burden onto just one or two relievers instead of running the entire group into the ground. He believed that it was better to add two innings to Colomé’s arm while he was fully rested rather than forcing another reliever to pitch without rest.

 

I come to this conclusion because I find it unusual that Duffey was not the one used for the eighth inning. Yes, he pitched in the previous game, but he threw a pretty negligible total of just 12 pitches. He should have been ready to go in the eighth inning of that game. Baldelli had not previously shown any hesitancy to utilize Duffey in that specific bridge-type of role. Not calling in Duffey, who has been arguably better than Colomé since the beginning of 2019, seems like an unusual decision to me. Neither reliever ultimately bests the other when it comes to platoon splits and the sample size in 2021 is too small to determine who should be more “trustworthy” based on recent outcomes. To me, there is a grander process at play.

 

Great stuff, Matt, you typed a lot of words but what is the ultimate point?

 

That’s a fair question to ask. Truly, I’m not sure. Perhaps this is way over-analyzing one singular managerial decision (it was just one outing, after all). If Baldelli fails to make a similar move the rest of the season then no one will likely remember it outside of extreme nerds and dorks. But, when someone is sent out to do something they had not done in nearly four years, well, I find that to be too interesting to ignore. The addition of Colomé has given the Twins their best 1-2 reliever punch since Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon. What will be notable going forward is seeing whether Baldelli leans on using them in succession or if he uses one to alleviate the other in order to give himself backup for the next day. Essentially, will Baldelli use both shots in one game or save the other for later? We will have to wait and see.

 

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[denarded]

Great article/analysis. I know this makes me seem like an old man, but 3 + outs shouldn't be the exception. Especially when you you may be facing the 5-9 hitters in lineup (Although The Twins lineup would give me pause) I just can't believe we live in a world with 14 pitcher staffs. Did love this line

The reason for this was because the bullpen was made up of bubble gum, paper clips, and lost dreams. Also, Matt Magill

[Dman]

I actually thought it was strange myself.  Colome didn't exactly have an easy time of it in the 8th and I really thought Baldelli was pushing his luck bringing him out for the 9th.  He ended up only throwing 32 pitches so not horrible but I was curious as to why they sent him out there for the 9th.

 

The thing I was wondering is if a reliever is already warmed up and hasn't thrown too many pitches the inning before does it make more sense just to have them pitch two innings? Or is is it generally a bad idea to do that? That was the question I had. The OP has thought about it much harder than I.  

 

After reading this there were a couple things I think I think.  It was a close game and Duffy hasn't been particularly sharp to start the season, walking guys, giving up hits, his WHIP stands at 1.88 currently which is not good for a reliever. 

 

I know Colome had a tough first time out but he is a proven vet that Baldelli has said he trusts in tough spots and that was a tough spot.  In the end I honestly just think it came down to comfort level and he trusted Colome more than Duffy on that particular day in that particular situation.  That is just my opinion.  There certainly could be some master plan at work but for me I see it as a gut type situational managerial call.

[PDX Twin]

How about "We have an 8 run lead and Colome has looked a little shaky and needs to get locked in. I can bring on someone else if he starts to fray in the 9th."

[h2oface]

 

That is just my opinion.  There certainly could be some master plan at work but for me I see it as a gut type situational managerial call.

 

I hope you are right. I have come to think Baldelli is incapable of making a gut call, and only relying on the "books".

[GKuehl]

It felt to me like Baldelli was trying to keep Rogers fresh and ready for the Mariners series, especially since the Mariners lineup has a lot of lefty bats. I think we’ll see a lot more of Rogers used in the role of a typical lefty reliever whose usage is determined more by the matchups than the inning.

[wabene]

I think this is something that should be looked at by someone with more patience than me. We have rently become aware of a performance dip for pitchers pitching without rest. How about 2 inning outings? Does that effect performance? Could they then be used with one day of rest sometimes or does it have to be more? Might help with the pace of play issues.

[Doctor Gast]

Your reasoning, I think also backs up my reasoning of an extra long reliever to help take off the burdens from the starters and short relievers this year. Through extra innings they eat up.

[Eris]

I have always thought it would be better to have relief pitchers throw more than one inning in exchange for more rest. I have not seen any data. It just doesn’t seem to make sense to have someone throw 10-12 pitches in one inning and then run someone else out for the next inning. Although getting lose in the bullpen is not high leverage it has to contribute to some wear and tear on the arm. A counter argument would be that having relief pitchers throw only one inning allows for better match-ups and makes them available for the following day if needed.

[Nine of twelve]

Every pitcher, starter or reliever, should be managed based on his own strengths. Don't try to force a strategy onto your pitchers. Instead, use the strengths of your pitchers to set your strategy.

[Tom Froemming]

I know it can be difficult for some relievers to get hot, sit between innings, and then go back out there, but I think it'd be valuable to get a few guys more accustomed to it. I'm always left scratching my head a bit when there's a relief outing that lasts less than 10 pitches. 

[Fatbat]

Set up men that can pitch 2 innings consistently are rare. Baldelli was experimenting with a big lead. I bet duffy will be our closer come Sept.

[DMN13]

It will be interesting to see if our closers rotate or not in high pressure situations going forward.  To me, it seems Colome is the early Rocco choice.  The game discussed here was a 3-2 game so trusting the closer to throw 2 innings was unusual to see, especially after a non-easy 8th.  If we need closers back to back, obviously it will be someone else the next day.  Kind of old-school, so not sure what the analytics are actually showing here.  Turned out to be a good move and a good win.

[beckmt]

Great article. Maybe Rocco is planning on using his relievers for multi innings more than less.  Outside of Duffy, who seems to be the put out the fire now reliever in the Twins  pen, he has about 3 to 4 other relievers that can go 2 innings and maybe pitch them every 2 - 3 days.  Should be fun.

[killertwinfan]

Dude clearly needs the work. Our bullpen has put up good numbers but has been far from sharp. Getting 30 or so pitches per reliever outing and giving them a day off seems like a good approach and May crate opportunities for improvement early on.

[arby58]

 

I have always thought it would be better to have relief pitchers throw more than one inning in exchange for more rest. I have not seen any data. It just doesn’t seem to make sense to have someone throw 10-12 pitches in one inning and then run someone else out for the next inning. Although getting lose in the bullpen is not high leverage it has to contribute to some wear and tear on the arm. A counter argument would be that having relief pitchers throw only one inning allows for better match-ups and makes them available for the following day if needed.

Another advantage of having a reliever work 1+ innings is they will already have faced three batters, so the manager has more flexibility with removing them - plus, if that pitcher gets, say, 1 or 2 outs and another reliever is needed, if they get to the end of the inning, they are also no longer subject to the three batter rule.

[Trov]

Bring in Colome has given Rocco the ability to really match up through games and series.  There may have been much deep reason for the two innings, or as Justin brought up it may have been that Seattle had more lefties and Rodgers would be more likely to be used against them.  

 

It has been talked about how Rodgers will be used again to face lefties more.  Yes he can get out righties, but always throwing him out for 9th no matter the match ups was not the best use.  It also allows for Rodgers to not be used back to back days either.  Rocco has said he will never just have a set closer and will let the game play it out.  I think that is best way to go.  I will say having proven 9th inning guys is important because not everyone can do it mentally.  Look at Latroy Hawkins career.  He was one of best bullpen pitchers of his era, but every time a team put him in to be closer he was so much worse.  It could have been mental for him, or matchups, because teams will pull out all the moves in the 9th. 

[AceWrigley]

Not having to warm up relievers saves their arms. The 3 out minimum rule is a factor as mentioned by arby58. Starting an inning with a pitcher who has already met the minimum batter rule means he can be pulled after the 1st or 2nd batter if the manager chooses for either performance reasons or for a critical matchup.

[jmlease1]

Alcala has been used for 2 innings a few times already in his young career, so maybe the 2-inning late relief idea is one that's going to be used a bunch? I'm not opposed to it, I think we have some guys with that capacity. Probably not a bad idea to test Colome's comfort/ability early in a low-leverage spot.

[Channing1964]

I know my opinion may sound like an odd thing for me to say but...I don't think Baldelli is afraid to use any of them for 6 outs. It seems like every year a lot of fans underrate the Twins b.p and at the end you look and they have a top 5-10 crew out there.

That guy Robles is a beast, and Colomé is the real deal too. With the emergence of Stashak, Alcala, and Dobnak as long relief...this years pen maybe the best we've had in quite awhile. I wanted them to keep May and Wisler but this is one area where I think they did a great job of reloading it. It was a nice under the radar thing...I just hope the main guys can stay healthy. I don't feel that Waddell us a scrub either.

 

[twinfan]

If I was Rogers and this team was weaker, I might want a trade. Is Rocco afraid to use him in the 9th? He has been the best reliever so far. It doesn't do much for his confidence in the manager. Fortunately this didn't blow up in Rocco's face.

[h2oface]

Luck prevailed on that two inning outing. Didn't help my blood pressure.

[Danchat]

If I was Rogers and this team was weaker, I might want a trade. Is Rocco afraid to use him in the 9th? He has been the best reliever so far. It doesn't do much for his confidence in the manager. Fortunately this didn't blow up in Rocco's face.

Rogers was bad last year, and should have to prove himself to be worthy of closing games again. Being the “best reliever so far” through one week means absolutely nothing to me, very tiny sample size.

[dxpavelka]

Rocco's made it pretty obvious that he doesn't necessarily believe in the closer concept.  However, if he does, I wish he'd send his starter out there for "one more" as much as he does his de facto closer.

[dxpavelka]

 

 

Rogers was bad last year, and should have to prove himself to be worthy of closing games again. Being the “best reliever so far” through one week means absolutely nothing to me, very tiny sample size.

Last year was a fairly small sample size as well.

[USAFChief]

I think the Twins bullpen is weak, not up to the task of winning anything significant.

 

Really poor job this winter of strengthening an obvious hole.